Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Kithanga's search for value The first week's search for value ends with a couple of placed efforts but no wins. P&L now looking a little more reasonable than day 1 though. Bets: 11 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 18% Stake: 150 Return: 201 Profit / Loss: +51 ROI: +33%
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Re: Kithanga's search for value As promised, an update on the final two races and two further selections which, unsurprising given how late I'm backing them, are both trading at the prices I've taken. 5.10 Yorksters Prince may well be able to last longer than his latest run now he's back a furlong in trip. I have him as joint favourite but not by the same margin as the bookies. The other joint favourite in my book is Taro Tywood who kept on strongly up the hill at Bath last time to land a similar race carrying a similar weight. That race was run in a slowish time so it may be that she was flattered. However, she's only 4yo and it was only her third start of the campaign. Given she seemed to improve when stepped up to today's trip on the Polytrack last year and the ground at Bath was the firmest she's encountered on turf I was happy enough to back her at 11-2 (15 points). 5.40 A very poor and trappy event in which I like the chance of a few including the favourite who's discounted given the short price. Sally Friday put up her best race over CD when winning but then didn't last home at the same venue next time out. She didn't hold her form long last season so she may have gone over the top and has a very inexperienced pilot on board. Petella should also go well with the excellent Connor Beasley booked but this trip is a minimum for her even on her favoured fast surface and she's exactly on the price I'd like at 11-2. The one I've backed though is the bottom one, Dean Iarracht who won over CD last season off 5lb higher. That was the middle one of three good runs, 2nd, Won & 2nd all on good to firm or firm ground. He didn't get that ground again last season and showed up better on his 2nd start back after a break in firm ground at Beverley last time when left poorly placed. I'm expecting better this time and have chanced him at 16-1 (7 points)
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Two bets so far today at Redcar and there may be more later as I've yet to finish the last two races. Both have shortened since I backed them but are still, at the time of posting, available at what I consider to be value prices. 2.40 A low grade race which won't take much winning but My New Angel at 5-1 (16 points) seems to have improved on her last two starts having been switched to Jason Ward and it may be that the new yard have found the key to her. There appears to be plenty of pace in the race which should suit and avoid a repetition of her close defeat last time when doing well to come from a long way back. 4.10 An interesting sprint handicap in which there may not be too much pace early, putting me off the favourite Head Space who'll have no choice but to take a pull and drop in from a wide draw in stall 1 as he's normally held up. Of those usually ridden close to the pace Orbit The Moon, who's probably better over 7f appeals most. However, I've taken a chance on Rich Again at 8-1 (12 points) from stall 7. He finished just behind the favourite at Haydock after a lengthy break two starts back and then got too far behind at Ayr last time. Only 4yo, he has the scope to improve as a sprinter and although he's normally held up I'm hopeful he'll find it easier to sit reasonably close from his middle draw than those drawn wide. I'll post again later if I'm backing in the final two races.
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Oh my, what a deeply frustrating day. Not only did the favourite confirm previous form in the 3.40 but I toyed with backing both the final two winners on the card. Believe it or not, I avoided Cincinnati Kit as she looked too big a price! I assumed I'd got it wrong which was also my thought process on Tassel when I saw she was 20-1. I went with one and not the other. Why I was inconsistent I've no idea but luck ensured I suffered for my lack of discipline. With Tha'ir I needed 4-1 or better and stood by and watched, waiting for it to drift back out, while all the 5-1, 9-2 and 4-1 got mopped up early doors. I know they're only mistakes with hindsight and after the result is known but I think I was far too cautious. Why, I don't know. Never mind, you live & learn. Bets: 7 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 27% Stake: 100 Return: 201 Profit / Loss: 101 ROI: 100%
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Re: Kithanga's search for value An interesting card at Newmarket today. 1.50 Kitten On The Run may appreciate the likely strong pace and the drop back to 1m in the opener and looks worth a punt at 5-1 (16 points). He shaped well on fast ground over 10f, particularly in a decent handicap first time up but was outclassed in a more steadily run Group 3 last time out. In the 3.40 the favourite Midnight Flower has a decent chance despite stepping up in class as she quickened nicely when winning over CD last time out. Her price is about right though. I prefer Links Drive Lady, who's been progressive over this trip, over I'm So Glad who may appreciate further. However, with a strong pace looking assured I've taken a chance that Richard Hannon's filly Tassel at 20-1 (5 points) can improve on her already decent form. Not far behind Links Drive Lady two outings ago at Goodwood when held up well off the pace she had a tough task last time out in a decent conditions race over this track, fading having set a strong pace. Having been highly tried on occasions at 2, I feel she's still unexposed over 6f on fast ground in handicaps and with winning form at 5f last year is not short of pace. Goldream looks a solid favourite in the 4.50 but too short to interest me at 9-4 so I'll leave that one alone.
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Re: Kithanga's search for value Drew a blank today. Ready ran a good race but came a little wide into the straight and couldn't stay on as well as the winner. Who's Shirl confirmed she's probably on the downgrade, just staying on at one pace and never in it. Bets: 5 Wins: 2 Strike Rate: 40% Stake: 79 Return: 201 Profit / Loss: 122 If there's any questions or comments let me know. Happy to supply other info like minimum price, current price, etc if folk would find it useful. Onto Newmarket tomorrow and hopefully back in the winners enclosure
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Re: Kithanga's search for value I’m betting at Pontefract this evening. It’s a decent looking card with a couple of very solid looking favourites in the first two races. I’m swerving the very trappy looking sprint at 7.35 and starting off in the 8.05, a mile race for 3yo’s. I think Ready has scope for further improvement at this trip as he finished well when just landing a similar race at Haydock recently. Stepping back half a furlong at Beverley wasn’t ideal last time on a course that wouldn’t have suited his racing style. The main danger appears to come from the solid looking favourite Henry The Aviator who’s chance is fully reflected in his price. So, Ready for me and I’ve backed him at 8-1 (12 points). My final wager goes in the last, a race where there’s plenty in with a shout. At the prices I like the look of dual course winner Who’s Shirl who’s best performances have coincided with 6f on fast ground on an uphill track. She hasn’t had those conditions much in the last two seasons so has dropped a fair way in the weights as a result. I’m willing to forgive her last two below par runs over 7f, particularly her latest when she was drawn out wide with no cover. Paul Mulrennan who rides this course well is an interesting booking for the yard so I’m giving her one more chance under ideal conditions. I’ve backed her as much as permitted at 12-1 last night but most of the money went on at 8-1 (11 points) and I’ll use the lower of the prices for the P&L. Good luck if you’re punting with me.
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Re: Kithanga's search for value At Beverley on Tuesday See Vermont went a close 3rd but didn't seem to be putting it all in to me so I'll be a little cautious of that one If I come across him again. Relight My Fire confirmed he's on the up with a comfortable win at 9-4 and Niceonemyson scraped home by a couple of necks in the last. Sandown last night was a no bet meeting as I couldn't find anything that stood out on a very difficult card. I'm hoping for better racing and hopefully a few bets at Pontefract tomorrow night. Results Update Bets: 3 Wins: 2 Stake: 56 Return: 201 Profit/Loss: +145
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Hope you enjoy the new thread :unsure All bets are win only unless stated otherwise. Starting bank is 500 points and the prices stated will be those I've taken, not what's available at the time of posting so BOG won't apply either. Playing at Beverley today with three on a difficult card. 2.30 A low class race with only a few in form and the main contenders are at the head of the market. Outside those there's just a chance that See Vermont can continue to improve. He showed nothing on a softer surface last season and has performed better on faster ground on his last two starts so he may well be better suited by today's surface. Only a small amount of improvement would be needed to beat these so he looked a decent bet at 17-2 (12 points) 4.30 Plenty of previous course winners in opposition but I've sided with Relight My Fire at 11-4 (28 points) to continue his improvement from Ayr. Like the selection in the first he appears to have improved for a faster surface. Added to that he's also improved for an extra furlong this year and needs only to reproduce the form of his Ayr win or previous Beverley 2nd to go very close here. 5.35 I missed all the fancy prices about John Coffey early doors so can't have that one at the current prices despite him having a solid chance of breaking his maiden. Therefore I'm taking a chance that the improved run from Niceonemyson at this course last time was no fluke. Given his previous close 2nd at Redcar was also an improvement on what he did last year and that he's bred to be ideally suited by the 5f he had on those occasions and today he's the bet given he's drifted from early favourite to the 5-1 (16 points) that was on offer.
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Re: Rio's Racing Diary
I must have been stood right next to you based on that Brown Panther photo. Wish I'd have known, could have had a nice chat mate :-(Tactically Fallon's probably riding as good or better than he's ever done but if he wasn't at his age & experience then there'd be something wrong. However he's always had that reputation for being strong in a finish, almost lifting a horse home in a tight situation & it wouldn't take many close defeats to get punters & owners thinking he's lost a bit at the death. I thought that he actually was not quite as strong after that horrible injury that nearly finished him but that was a long time ago & he seemed to change his style a little which if anything made him a better jockey. What was interesting was the interview he did after his return from that last ban where he said he had to make the most of this last chance because he felt he wouldn't have much time left at the top. Perhaps that sowed a few seeds of doubt in some owners/trainers minds or perhaps I'm just barking up the wrong tree, I certainly wouldn't be put off backing anything he was on. In terms of frustrating results & the inevitable outcomes this is the sort of point I was trying to get across in that other thread where the spat kicked off. To me no matter how much you try to remain detached, how much you know from your past results etc that you will emerge from the other side when you get into one of "those" runs, at some point you begin to think that the whole world is against you. I mentioned Sky Lantern & backing her for the Nell Gwyn where she was second & since then she's won the Guineas & the Coronation at good prices, the latter from a draw in the car park. Add to that Sole Power who I was on at Haydock but not in the Kings Stand & York Glory who couldn't win for me at York but dots up in the Wokingham off a 2lb higher mark & that's just last week. The two I was on yesterday were both well backed but Gabrial The Great went from pulling double off the last bend to pulling a skip in a matter of strides & Eagle Rock was very disappointing. I will come out of the run & it's not that bad because I have had some decent winners & I did have two bets on course yesterday, one of which won but I never include those bets not pre posted in any returns on here. I know where I stand for the year & I'm actually in front having had a good run from late January & through February which is unusal for me because I don't bet as much at that time of the year normally. Anyway onwards & upwards, hopefully. Dutch Courage looked & won well yesterday & can go in again. Dare to Achieve couldn't have won any easier in the 3yo maiden but I could have beaten that lot on a rusty bike. Gabrial the Great looked really well but this was another of those races like the one Royal Skies won the other week at Ponty. Gabrial the Great was 7l's second with the third another 8l's behind, I have checked & it was a 10f handicap on the flat & not a 3m+ steeplechase as the result might suggest, oh to be the BHA handicapper, not!! Brown Panther looked a picture & won well, he can win a Group race this season, Irish Leger is the target. Miss Cap Estel was a nice looking filly & was a fair third off top weight, she can win again, probably with a bit of cut in the ground. No return from 85pts staked. W/R 24/146 Stakes 4399.3pts Returns 3467.09pts P/L -932.21pts Ante post 136pts Ante post return -136pts Expense running total £775 Noted horses W/R 4-25 Stakes 25 return 28 P/L +3 This looks like being a quiet week, I looked at the card for Thirsk this evening but it is abysmal, actually I take that back, it's not that good. There's Beverley tomorrow but I have things to do. Doncaster on Friday would look like my best chance, they race there again on Saturday evening but Ronan Keating is warbling afterwards which means the Thirsk card is likely to look stellar in comparison & it will be packed with half wits intent on getting as drunk as possible & I suspect I may treat myself & creosote the fence. Dutch Courage
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And in the winners
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Dare to Achieve & Richard Hughes
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Gabrial the Great
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Brown Panther
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Brown Panther & connections after
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Rio. -
Re: Each way betting These days I avoid betting each way in anything other than 16 runner plus handicaps where I'd consider backing at any price that was value for the simple reason that's it's more profitable than win only. Although certain races (8 runner, fav odds on, etc) are also profitable I don't back each way for fear of account restrictions or closure
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Ratted but really happy made a few quid. Photos to follow k Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Added Sir Max @13-2 in 4.00 to my perm. :-) Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July
I've gone with 2.15 Urban Dreamer 9-2 2.50 Joey's Destiny 11-1 3.25 Ladyship 7-1 4.00 Intransigent 9-1 4.35 Alta Lilea 7-1 5.10 Livia's Dream 13-2 & Stellar Express 8-1 5.45 Excuse to Linger 11-2Chester Sat 13th July I’m off to Chester races tomorrow and see the races as follows. Price forecasts are to a 100% book. Should be interesting to see how the Racing Post and the bookies price them up later. As usual, I’ll consider backing any that are above the guide prices that give me a decent margin of error. That means I can’t say exactly which ones I’ll be on yet of course. 2.15 Urban Dreamer (7-2) has been consistent and should go well having had plenty of experience, as should Weisse Socken (11-4) who wasn’t seen at her best racing wide last time. She has more scope for improvement though having had just the three starts. Extreme Supreme (11-2) may be best of the lighter raced bunch after being thrown in the deep end on his racecourse debut. 2.50 Red Explorer (11-4) is unexposed and looks on the upgrade after showing improved form to take a similar race last time out. He looks to have plenty of scope and should go on improving. Whatever he does tomorrow I think he’ll be even better over further in time. Of the dangers Joey’s Destiny (7-2) looked like he’d returned to form last time out, is more speedily bred and also has a fair degree of ability. Trinityelitedotcom (5-1) ran better in a slowly run event at Bath last time. He seems to travel well in his races and also has scope for better. Slowish time figures achieved on slow ground is a doubt though. 3.25 Majestic Myles (9-4) will probably be a popular choice to win this event for the third time having shown signs of a return to his best last time after a poor previous run. Back down in class on a course where he has a 100% strike rate, he looks to hold a favourites chance. He won’t have it all his own way though as Correspondent (4-1) is an improving 3yo who, if he copes with the faster ground could go close on a track he won at last time. Obviously well regarded (he ran in the 2000 Guineas) he doesn’t yet have the form in the book (or the timefigures) but does have plenty of scope. Another that is yet to prove she’s good enough but who has scope to improve is Ladyship (9-2) who’s yet to strike form this year. Quietly progressive last season, this filly is in good hands and looks as though she may, like her dam, improve with age and the trip is within her scope. 4.00 A very tight race with most of the top weights coming back from poor runs or breaks and I may just sit this one out. However, the winner may just come from Intransigent (5-1), Sir Maximilian (9-2), Summerinthecity (11-2) and possibly Al’s Memory (12-1). There’s not much between the first and third named based on their run here in May. Intransigent has gone on from that the better of the two but is undoubtedly better on the all-weather. Sir Maximilian is out to prove that he can perform as well over 6f as 5f, which I’m sure he can. The more significant doubt is the likely going as he put in probably his worst run of the season in good to firm ground at Nottingham on his penultimate start. Al’s Memory is only small and therefore may get bullied about a bit from stall 1. However, if they do go off much to fast he’s capable of staying on strongly from off the pace given his winning form at 7f. Summerinthecity bouncing back to form wouldn't be the biggest shock given his liking for the track and his yard. 4.30 It doesn’t get any easier in this race as I can see any bar Marwan Koukash’s representative (doubt he’ll stay) winning. Alta Lilea (7-2) has the class and should improve for the trip but is inconsistent. Deira Phantom (7-2) remains unexposed at staying trips and back on a faster surface (by Cape Cross) has a good chance. Good Evans (7-2) owes me nothing having battled well to land a 9-1 wager at a starting price of 4-1 last Friday at Sandown. That was a hard race though as they went hard from the front that day and I wonder how much that’s taken out of him. Snowy Dawn (7-2) has bags of stamina on the dam’s side but is still a maiden. He should also improve for the step up in trip and with the yard in good form may spring a surprise as I expect him to be a little ignored in the betting. 5.10 The pace is likely to be strong here with any number of prominently ridden types. Livia’s Dream (9-2) has the speed to cope with 10f but also the stamina to last 12f and I think that’ll give her an edge in this. Stellar Express (11-2) is likely to be shorter I think based on his last two decent runs here. He is unexposed at the trip and may be able to use his 8f pace to advantage. He was beaten only ½ length by Dolphin Rock (7-1) last time but that one hasn’t run since (7 weeks ago) and the race that day seemed to benefit those ridden from the front (slow time figures). Of the others King Of Paradise (15-2) is up in class and needs to settle better than he did previously. It’ll be interesting to see if Jason Hart tucks him in this time from stall 6 with so many other front runners in opposition. If he does, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t travel better behind the strong pace and improve again at a trip he’s unexposed at. If he goes off in the lead he’ll have no chance imo. 5.45 By far the strongest form choice of the day runs in the last and I fully expect Jeremy Noseda’s colt Excuse To Linger (9-4) not to hang about. He looked like he wasn’t enjoying Brighton’s unique track last time and back on a flatter surface should be able to continue his progression. Dangers are Queen Aggie (4-1) who was taken out of the 2.50 race and should be able to use her speed at 6f to good effect here and Black Rider (5-1) who travelled nicely when winning by a short margin at Newcastle last time. He’s sometimes slowly away though which won’t help round here and up in class too so needs to improve again. K -
Chester Sat 13th July I’m off to Chester races tomorrow and see the races as follows. Price forecasts are to a 100% book. Should be interesting to see how the Racing Post and the bookies price them up later. As usual, I’ll consider backing any that are above the guide prices that give me a decent margin of error. That means I can’t say exactly which ones I’ll be on yet of course. 2.15 Urban Dreamer (7-2) has been consistent and should go well having had plenty of experience, as should Weisse Socken (11-4) who wasn’t seen at her best racing wide last time. She has more scope for improvement though having had just the three starts. Extreme Supreme (11-2) may be best of the lighter raced bunch after being thrown in the deep end on his racecourse debut. 2.50 Red Explorer (11-4) is unexposed and looks on the upgrade after showing improved form to take a similar race last time out. He looks to have plenty of scope and should go on improving. Whatever he does tomorrow I think he’ll be even better over further in time. Of the dangers Joey’s Destiny (7-2) looked like he’d returned to form last time out, is more speedily bred and also has a fair degree of ability. Trinityelitedotcom (5-1) ran better in a slowly run event at Bath last time. He seems to travel well in his races and also has scope for better. Slowish time figures achieved on slow ground is a doubt though. 3.25 Majestic Myles (9-4) will probably be a popular choice to win this event for the third time having shown signs of a return to his best last time after a poor previous run. Back down in class on a course where he has a 100% strike rate, he looks to hold a favourites chance. He won’t have it all his own way though as Correspondent (4-1) is an improving 3yo who, if he copes with the faster ground could go close on a track he won at last time. Obviously well regarded (he ran in the 2000 Guineas) he doesn’t yet have the form in the book (or the timefigures) but does have plenty of scope. Another that is yet to prove she’s good enough but who has scope to improve is Ladyship (9-2) who’s yet to strike form this year. Quietly progressive last season, this filly is in good hands and looks as though she may, like her dam, improve with age and the trip is within her scope. 4.00 A very tight race with most of the top weights coming back from poor runs or breaks and I may just sit this one out. However, the winner may just come from Intransigent (5-1), Sir Maximilian (9-2), Summerinthecity (11-2) and possibly Al’s Memory (12-1). There’s not much between the first and third named based on their run here in May. Intransigent has gone on from that the better of the two but is undoubtedly better on the all-weather. Sir Maximilian is out to prove that he can perform as well over 6f as 5f, which I’m sure he can. The more significant doubt is the likely going as he put in probably his worst run of the season in good to firm ground at Nottingham on his penultimate start. Al’s Memory is only small and therefore may get bullied about a bit from stall 1. However, if they do go off much to fast he’s capable of staying on strongly from off the pace given his winning form at 7f. Summerinthecity bouncing back to form wouldn't be the biggest shock given his liking for the track and his yard. 4.30 It doesn’t get any easier in this race as I can see any bar Marwan Koukash’s representative (doubt he’ll stay) winning. Alta Lilea (7-2) has the class and should improve for the trip but is inconsistent. Deira Phantom (7-2) remains unexposed at staying trips and back on a faster surface (by Cape Cross) has a good chance. Good Evans (7-2) owes me nothing having battled well to land a 9-1 wager at a starting price of 4-1 last Friday at Sandown. That was a hard race though as they went hard from the front that day and I wonder how much that’s taken out of him. Snowy Dawn (7-2) has bags of stamina on the dam’s side but is still a maiden. He should also improve for the step up in trip and with the yard in good form may spring a surprise as I expect him to be a little ignored in the betting. 5.10 The pace is likely to be strong here with any number of prominently ridden types. Livia’s Dream (9-2) has the speed to cope with 10f but also the stamina to last 12f and I think that’ll give her an edge in this. Stellar Express (11-2) is likely to be shorter I think based on his last two decent runs here. He is unexposed at the trip and may be able to use his 8f pace to advantage. He was beaten only ½ length by Dolphin Rock (7-1) last time but that one hasn’t run since (7 weeks ago) and the race that day seemed to benefit those ridden from the front (slow time figures). Of the others King Of Paradise (15-2) is up in class and needs to settle better than he did previously. It’ll be interesting to see if Jason Hart tucks him in this time from stall 6 with so many other front runners in opposition. If he does, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t travel better behind the strong pace and improve again at a trip he’s unexposed at. If he goes off in the lead he’ll have no chance imo. 5.45 By far the strongest form choice of the day runs in the last and I fully expect Jeremy Noseda’s colt Excuse To Linger (9-4) not to hang about. He looked like he wasn’t enjoying Brighton’s unique track last time and back on a flatter surface should be able to continue his progression. Dangers are Queen Aggie (4-1) who was taken out of the 2.50 race and should be able to use her speed at 6f to good effect here and Black Rider (5-1) who travelled nicely when winning by a short margin at Newcastle last time. He’s sometimes slowly away though which won’t help round here and up in class too so needs to improve again. K
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 9th July Pontefract 4.00 Ultrasonic is a confident selection at a big price in a race where four stand out. Ryan Moore's sole ride of the day should be able to settle better drawn in trap 2. This 6f Listed placed filly only needs to stay the stiff 1m, which she should on breeding, to have far too much toe for these p.s. should have said she's available at 5-1
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Re: Losing runs - a note for those suffering Thanks guys. Couldn't help chuckling to myself when Intermath dumped Queally on the turf. Sometimes things really don't seem to go your way even if you're slightly ahead. First bets of July tomorrow night as there's a good card at Kempton. Good luck all
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Readers of my last thread will know that I've been on quite a losing run and hadn't struck a winner in June until the 23rd day of the month. I'm pleased to report that, against all odds, the month of June will be a profitable one now thanks to Breakheart's 8-1 win at Salisbury earlier today. If Intermath wins in 5 minutes time it'll even have been a reasonably good month overall. So if you're going through a bad spell, do what I did. Have a moan, take stock, review your results, question your approach, ask for help from the great guys on here and most of all, keep on at it because it does all come good eventually if your reasoning is sound. Thanks to all those who gave me much needed support during the month. You know who you are :clap K
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Re: Bad losing runs Just broken a run of 40 straight losers with a nice 7-1 shot today :nana A hefty 25p rule 4 took the shine off it a bit though!:wall
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Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 23rd June
Cheers mate. Yes we are going, convinced the family it'll be a nice day out. Not been there for about 15 years, maybe more! I did listen to your advice and Machine too bless him. Did a full analysis of bets since 2006 and I'm happy that it is just variance as once I'd got them all on the same spreadsheet a quick filter told me it wasn't unusual at the prices I've been playing at recently. I've dismissed Machine's approach (not because I don't believe him) but it just doesn't match how I want to play the game. Starting Friday, I've taken on board your Each Way suggestion though and now back EW on any 16+ runner handicaps due to the maths advantage. I'll stay win only on 99% of the rest, even most of the ones that are well known to be mathematically advantagous (don't want to attract even stricter limiting of bets). I'm also betting differential stakes (based on odds percentage) as I ran some random samples and graphs showed it works out a smoother ride than level stake with same percentage ROI. First each way bet was Redvers at 20-1 in the big handicap where paddy power payed first six placed. Finished 2nd home on the far side and 7th overall. Even with the maths onside, when your luck's out, it's out!Good Luck K and thanks for the input over the last couple of weeks. Have had to have a long hard look at what I'm doing right and what I'm doing wrong. I know I've harped on about this before but (if your average odds are in double figures), wouldn't EW betting smooth the journey at all? I FULLY appreciate that over the Long Term, win only will pay out more if you are a long term winner... However, and I can only talk about my psychological make up, I just can't hack the losing runs and I just know I'd pack up when my losing run reached 40+. Statistically, this isn't even as bad as it could get with average odds in double figures. Again, I appreciate that as a sample this is far too small but of 33 bets at Royal Ascot I had 3 winners and 10 placed efforts. The average win odds were 11.49. EW, I was just under half a point down over the week. Win only I was 12 points down. Mathematically, win only is best and one decent priced winner would have put that method back out in front but, for me anyway, Maths means nothing if I've quit due to the inevitable losing run that your encountering now. Interestingly, crunched over 1,000 back dated bets too(that have been profitable overall) and the profit/loss I have made on selections under 5.0 is completely irrelevant. ROI goes up considerably at odds over 11.0 so I do think that it's highly likely your doing nothing wrong. If you can hold it together, I'd put the LR down to variance too! Good Luck today and enjoy the races if u go :) -
..... as the met office website is so wrong it's beyond useless. At 5am today they had heavy rain 80% chance with 60% chance of light rain through the day for Pontefract. Then at 7am it was light rain 60% chance all morning through to 1pm. As at 10am it's now white cloud and a 20% chance of rain. wtf!! Same at York last Friday / Saturday, rain, rain and more rain forecast all day Friday and all day Saturday. They got about 3 mils Friday night and it was bright and sunny all Saturday I know I can be a poor tipster but these guys are beyond belief. Anyone got an alternative they use (other than waiting for race time as I don't like sitting back watching the odds shorten if I can help it)?
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Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 23rd June p.s. I should have stated that all three will also be ok on the ground if the rain doesn't arrive. The only change I'd make would be to back Cloudy Spirit as well as Eagle Rock in the 4.10 assuming it's above 5-1. Actually, it'd be better if it didn't as I'm going to convince the family to head over there for a day out at the races :)
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Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 23rd June Pontefract My losing run has now hit 40 on the trot so mild hope is all I can muster for today's three bets. A very high percentage have shortened significantly and / or been picked by the 'value' tipsters Segal and Taylor so I'm telling myself it's just variance, especially as the average odds have been well into double figures. According to the weather, there's going to have been some rain around overnight and during the morning so I've been assuming the ground will ride as least dead if not soft. 2.10 No bet Both the market leaders look decent prospects with slight preference for Sunrise Star. However, neither is proven on a softer surface and there are a couple of likely newcomers (Bruni Heinke & Flighty Peaches). There's little to get excited about in the likely prices. 2.40 No bet Dare To Achieve quite rightly heads the market in this due to his solid second behind Remote last time. The others are all unexposed to varying degrees but I can't see any of them improving sufficiently to concern the market leader. However, he's not proven on softer going and is likely to be odds on. 3.10 Haylaman 6-1 Coral A tight little race with Gabrial The Great, Carthaginian and Salutation among the others holding the main chances. I'm concerned about the recent hard race Salutation had and a there's a little doubt about the value of Carthaginian's Newcastle win in a class 5 maiden. Gabrial The Great has no decent form on uphill tracks but the selection has been racing in class 2 events and holding his own and also has decent form on uphill tracks. This is purely down to price though as he's second favourite in my list and fourth favourite in the market. He was also 7-1 yesterday so I just had to take that. 3.40 No bet I thought about going for Brown Panther given Main Sequence looked as though he was starting to develop a bit of an attitude last time out, especially as many would consider that he'll need the race (run poorly two times on seasonal return but did win on debut). However, there's every chance he will need it and Mukhadram has gone on to run a blinder since beating Main Sequence who has the help of first time cheekpieces. Too much to take on trust at the prices. 4.10 Eagle Rock 4-1 most places This one was a stand out price when I backed it last night (as high as 6-1 with Paddy Power) and only offers a little value now. There's plenty of likely pace in this race so proven stamina on softish ground was what I was looking for and this gelding has both. He ran well enough last time out despite an inadequate test and has decent uphill track form. Of the others, Herostatus could go close (beat Eagle Rock by a neck at York last year) but he may prefer flatter tracks and is unproven beyond 16.5f. Orsippus won this last year in bad ground so should go well but unlike last year he hasn't had a run. Cloudy Spirit was a little below her best on bad ground first time up and should have the race run to suit but is better on a sounder surface. Tartan Jura is the main danger as he's a thorough stayer who acts on soft going. However, he's unproven on stiff tracks and appears better on the all weather. He can also get behind in his races and can be a hard ride. 4.40 Ingleby Symphony 6-1 Hills This race revolves around whether Kikonga was flattered by his comfortable victory at Nottingham in a slowly run race. His current price (5-4) assumes he wasn't so I have to take him on. Miss Cap Estel ran well on her seasonal reappearance at Windsor over shorter and should go well as she's proven in softer ground and has run well on Bath's uphill circuit. However, this front runner has competition for the lead today and has 9-13 to carry. She's a decent size but that'll still take some carrying in the likely conditions so I can't have her at 2nd favourite odds. Of Course Darling has been running creditably in higher class races and her mark has suffered as a result. All that improvement this year has been on a sounder surface so it may be that conditions have gone against her. Bobs Her Uncle ran poorly last time for no apparent reason and Huffoof (first time blinkers) looked like he was holding back when just run out of second place behind Shalwa (runs in the 2.40) last time. The selection had progressive form last year on softer ground and has at least maintained that level on a sounder surface, running particularly well last time out at Beverly (uphill) when given too much to do on her first try at this trip. The 40 day break is a concern but she has scope for further improvement on her second start at the trip, back on a softer surface and an uphill track. With only 8-04 on her back she's nicely weighted too. 5.10 No be Magical Rose steps back in trip and despite the stiff track that may not suit. However, the competition isn't strong either as those stepping up from 5f have previously looked as though that was their best trip (Chasing Dreams, Teetotal). Deepest Blue is still a maiden and despite travelling strongly in front last time over 6f he didn't last home. That was on a fast surface too and he has a wide draw and an inexperienced rider on board. Too many doubts for me to get involved. Well, lets hope I can bag all three as that'll actually get me to a point where the fourth winner would put me ahead despite only 4 from 44. I can but dream. :loon K
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Re: Royal Ascot Day 2 ~ Wednesday 2.30 Jersey Stakes Hugely competitive as usual but Ninjago may have been overlooked in this. He was most impressive when clocking a good time over 6f at this course recently and then suffered at the back off a slow pace next time. There's still some 25-1 available with Ladbrokes (despite Hugh Taylor picking him) and he's worth chancing at that price. 3.45 Prince of Wales's Saint Baudolino was an animal I backed last year over in France when he finished a close 4th in a Group 1. Ok, he had a poor race back in Dubai early season but he's a big price in this for a horse with a touch of class. The 14-1 has all gone now thanks to Mr Segal but 12-1 is still looking ok. Hopefully one of those will win to end my drought. I can't keep picking only the shortners and Segal / Taylor picks that lose surely! As I'll be off line tomorrow I'll post up Thursday's bet which is Biographer at 33-1 in the Gold Cup. He posted a decent effort in a strong handicap at Newmarket recently and looks as though he may improve for the greater test of stamina. At the prices he's worth an each way punt given his proven course form
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in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Problem on Post Site ? It's probably to do with the plug ins being incompatible with either IE10 or Windows. I assume you're on Windows 8? I'd email the post and ask them what plug ins are used to populate the prices but at a guess it may be java so you could either google java windows 8 or java ie10 incompatibility as that'll bring up some useful forum help. Or try java.com and try their test page