Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Standard deviation of returns lol. Just be careful on the laying off as the amounts matched can be really low at the odds they quote. I know because I've had some partly matched in the past. Good luck with it
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Re: Kid Cassidy I backed the animal despite reservations about its 'problems' as I thought the price was worth the risk. I feel that he tried to get it to settle and jump as in that ground and with top weight it would have had no chance at all if it'd gone off hard or pulled hard. In the end it jumped poorly imo, out to the right a few times and may have jumped better if allowed to stride on. It did make good ground in the straight but the race was as good as over by then. So, it was imo ridden to not take to much out of it as there's a long season ahead (which is sensible) but that it'd have still won had it been good enough. The outcome was always possible given the conditions and the price reflected that
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Re: Standard deviation of returns
I understand! I've looked over thousands of bets now and e/w just doesn't stack up. I've also checked treating it as a separate bank (1 point win or 1 point ew rather than 1/2 point ew). The win element is unchanged obviously but the place bets show a small profit. Interestingly it struck me that all I'd be doing is adding another betting bank to get frustrated about, with a higher chance of it returning frustrating results (small profit or actual loss). It's got to be win only. The staking level and the bank aren't a problem for me, the bigger problem is all the effort involved and the fact that you can go weeks (and a lot of work) before a decent run and big return that puts you back ahead and that can be draining emotionally. How I get over that I'm not sureSorry mate - stupidly busy - Archie score based on average exchange odds is just over 2.0 which to my understanding means there is only a 15% chance that the results are random. Based on the figures your expected winners would be 30.77 and you achieved 38 so that augers well too. There is a way to predict future results too but that escapes me at the moment... http://www.hoof.demon.co.uk/archie.html With regards to the win/ew disscussion we had the other week - although my ROI is smashed EW betting, I am once again considering it. Without opening the spreadsheet something like 3 of the last 16 bets have won with 10 being placed!!!! Another thing I am working on is having my full stake on the win and then laying it off at half the odds - which is effectively what I am doing backing EW - kind of - you'll get my drift. At the moment - over 400+ bets it beats Each Way hands down. The battle to keep a focussed mind through a long run of near misses is tough - I am starting to think it is not worth the decrease in overall profits for the easier ride of going EW or laying off! If fear of losing your bank grips or just losing money in general and staking goes ary or a bet that you like is ignored - it may win and that will compound the phychological damage further. This is making perfect sense to me - probably not anyone else though!!:lol -
Re: Standard deviation of returns
Yes thanks, I got that. It's not that I don't believe it and not being ungrateful. Just curious if there's another way to view it as you seemed to indicate that the outcomes would be very unlikely as the average odds was unlikely to be the same in any following year.post 3 tells you that -
Re: Standard deviation of returns I just want to understand what percentage chance I've got of getting certain returns so maybe the title is wrong. I'm not that good at maths. The sample is from class 1 and 2 races but only a few bets (200) and a small strike rate (19%) so I'm expecting that in any one year the variation of returns could be significant. I'm trying to understand how significant. Something along the lines of.... I've got a 50% likelihood of landing between +30 and +100 in any one year, etc
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Re: Standard deviation of returns Thanks guys, I've pm'd Slapdash too. Yes please Saint, average odds were about 6.50
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Hope we've got a maths genius out there who can help me out. I'm trying to calculate the range of profits I might make from a year of betting based on my average profit, average bets and average strike rate. I assuming it's got something to do with Standard Deviations? The reason is that I want to understand what the 'normal' level of deviation I can expect as I think it'll help my confidence if I can see how bad a 'bad year' might be within an overall profitable set of numbers. Hope that explains it. The numbers I would like modelling are 200 bets, 19% strike rate & 25% ROI. Hope someone can help
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Re: Analyse this comment and add your conclusion: I agree that the market will have a larger over round initially and will then settle around the expected level as that's generally what happens. However, predicting which will shorten and which will lengthen can't be done on the over round alone. All you can say is that more will lengthen than shorten. Take the exchanges as an example. The over round rarely moves much in the 10 mins before a race at around 101% but the individual horses move around a lot. So I don't see how you can 'market time' an entry point on the over round alone. However, I am open to hearing why someone would think it possible
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Re: Todays RP paper or online You can download the whole paper direct from the RP website. Only a couple of quid
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Re: Each Way Paddy Power offer them but don't expect to get much on. The other choice is betfair but again low stakes even near the off
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Re: Analyse this comment and add your conclusion: It has nothing to do with class, it's all linked to the number of runners, complexity and the amount of information available. Whilst important it's not essential to have a low over round to make a good profit. Casino games have a much lower over round than horse races but you won't win on them
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Re: Todays RP paper or online Not that good. Won £50k, gave £17k back. Can't post though, it's copyright
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Re: Sick of being bent over and raped by the bookies Fin, Surely they would hold details of the bet on the betslip? Otherwise if its not in the terms and not on the betslip how can they settle it either way? I've had a dispute solved in my favour once with another bookie and found that they only backed down once I formally asked them to provide all the data they held on me on all of their computer systems, live and test in line with the data protection act. It would cost me only £10 under the rules of the act and they'd have a small period of time to respond. Working in IT I suspected they'd struggle to do this at a cost less than the disputed amount - it's a nightmare and they may not even have the procedures in place to begin to know how to comply. Hey presto, they changed their mind and paid me out! K
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Re: Sick of being bent over and raped by the bookies
This whole game stinks. The bookies market themselves as big boys but the reality is that they are a set of gutless traders' date=' that squirm their way out of any potential liability they ever stood to stand. There is no accountability for any bad opinions or mistakes they make, if their odds compilers make a mistake they hide behind a whole host of excuses to get out of paying customers what they are owed.[/quote'] I agree it's very frustrating at times. I tell other people who bet what they are like and show them screen prints of refused and limited bets that I have on my phone. It surprises them and I know at least a couple of them have moved their bets onto the exchanges as a result. Spread the word as customer feedback in any business alters behaviours eventually (when the profits are impacted sufficiently) -
Re: Each Way, Win only or Place only? Good post Saint and plenty of food for thought. You'll not be surprised to learn that I've tried similar things particularly Win & place & laying off (which I've done most recently on Fair Value last week leaving an 8-1 bet to nothing). My betting bank is fine so it's not that I'm worried about losing it's just frustration getting the better of me I think.
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Re: Each Way, Win only or Place only? Ok, thx. Here's the source of my frustration. September's been a losing month for me but I don't feel I've been far wrong. In fact I think I've been in really good form and hit the crossbar so many times. It just doesn't feel right that I'm down for the month. I doubt I'd even give it a second thought if some of the close seconds had prevailed. [TABLE=width: 437]
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Re: Each Way, Win only or Place only? Thanks for the reply. Regarding your final sentence, are you further ahead than you would have been if you'd gone win only to the full stake?
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Which is best in the long term for profitability in your opinion(s) and why? Do you have any numbers to back up your opinion? I've been betting win only this year due to my previous years results showing that this method produced a better ROI than Each Way betting. This year it's been marginally better after around 300 bets. However, the volatility is much higher and the losing runs & frustration are more challenging. For example I've had several close calls at long odds recently that have gone against me. I'm now wondering whether switching to Each Way or Place only would be a good way to reduce that volatility and whether it's worth the price (in reduced returns). I'm thinking that Each Way betting may a trade off. It may cost you in the long run when looking purely at the numbers. On the other hand it may actually benefit you as you have less of a confidence challenge due to a steadier sequence of results. Therefore you may actually maintain a better confidence level and mindset, thus leading to better selections and actually an increased profit over what you would have achieved had you bet win only. I'd be really interested in your experiences. K
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 29th of September Newmarket 4.50 Bertiewhittle 14-1 Bet365 (bog) Has top class handicap form over both 6f and 7f and seems suited by a large field and strong pace. Seemed to get tapped for speed of a moderate pace last time before staying on again in a very tough and competitive event. Tomorrows race looks easier, he's a previous course winner and I think the 19 strong field should ensure a better pace for him to aim at
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Re: Congrats Pricewise!
Ok perhaps Pricewise isn't a fair example' date=' but any other average punter would be. Record all your bets for a year and I bet that the profits/losses you've made at prices you've taken, and the SP won't be miles apart like you think.[/quote'] 20% worse off at SP and that's over more than a year -
Re: BBOTD Saturday 15th of September Chester 3.55 Tipping Over 7-1 (bog) Bet365 No shortage of betting opportunities today and the best of them at the prices appears to be this filly of Hugo Palmer's. A good win at Newmarket in June has been followed up by decent efforts in Listed races in Europe and she holds solid claims. The favourite, New Fforest is also likeable but beat nothing last time out and struggled a bit in Listed company the time before.
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Re: BBOTD Friday 14th of September Doncaster 4.35 Sir Quintin 25-1 Stan James This race has mostly gone to unexposed 3yo's in the last ten years, many of whom have had only a handful of runs. The favourite Pink Damsel who impressed when winning on her debut clearly has a strong chance despite not having raced for several months. However, another one at the bottom who's got every chance is the selection especially considering his trainer has had 1 winner and 1 placed animal from just 2 runners in this race. The tight turning track wouldn't have suited last time as he's a long strided galloper and I'm not sure the stiff finish in bad ground would have been suitable when he was turned over at 11-8 the time before.
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Re: What do you do if you miss the price??
Pro Gamblers don't announce themselves' date=' that's just people who want an audience. Definition would be making a living out of it though, yes.:ok[/quote'] Agree. If I was making a full time income I'd keep under the radar. I think most of us (well me anyway) are happy to have a really fun hobby that contributes a bit of spending money -
Re: What do you do if you miss the price??
I agree, but don't restrict myself to one possible winner when assessing the prices. I consider several, but not all. I think Saint pointed out that some you would consider as likely losers (out of form, not suited by going, etc) so you'd exclude themSurely the best way is a mix of both? Looking for winners but only backing at a price you feel suitable.
How was (is) 2012 for you?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Here’s a brief review of the up’s and down’s in my 2012 betting year. I hope others will add theirs too. I started out with the aim of focussing on non-handicap races as this is where all my previous profits have been registered. Things went well initially with healthy profits recorded in both January and February, mainly from concentrating on the Irish graded races. There’s so much to learn from watching these events as ‘heavy’ ground seems to cover anything from a little loose on top to a complete bog and I profited a few times from taking my own view of conditions based on race times. By the end of February I was doing ok on the ‘Best Bet of the Day’ competition and +29.72 points at level stakes from 40 bets in my personal betting. Confidence was high and with Cheltenham fast approaching it seemed like everything was going my way. I really should have just packed in betting for a while in early March as there were other significant demands on my time and I really wasn’t thinking straight. Not only did I make the error of soldiering on, I also increased stakes five-fold at the very time I should have withdrawn from the action completely. The result was a fairly hefty pasting. Why is it that at the very time you need just one thing to be going well in life, everything seems to go against you? Anyway, I found some sense shortly afterwards and reduced stakes back to their previous level but not before significant harm had been done. By the end of May I was +19.73 points at level stakes from 90 bets but only just ahead in £’s due to the temporary increase in stake. A re-introduction of handicap races and a more cavalier approach to betting was the order of the day for the next few months as I attempted a few different approaches. By now, I’d abandoned my original plan and was really just enjoying the action. I even tried my hand (unsuccessfully) at trading on other sports on the exchanges. At the time profit didn’t matter. It was an escape from everything else that was going on, it was fun and was at a level where it didn’t matter if I lost the lot. By the end of July I was +27.87 points at level stakes from 202 bets. I spent most of the next few months betting only sporadically but having multiple bets on the days that I was involved. I put in lots of work when I did bet but I was tired and didn’t really have an edge at all in hindsight. The events of the year had taken a toll and I really needed a break from the action. I’d completely lost focus at this time and had no strategy or plan at all. I was, in fact, unsure why I was even betting any more. By the time I placed my last bet of 2012 I’d no idea whether I was up or down. In fact, I’d crashed to -9.69 points at level stakes from 331 bets, a massive 37.56 point loss on just 129 bets since the end of summer. Somehow, I was still ahead in £’s but only due to some haphazard staking meaning a couple of bigger bets landed on decent priced winners. It could so easily have gone the other way. Looking back I’ve had many enjoyable days betting in 2012 and, for a hobby, it was inexpensive (in fact marginally profitable). On occasions it provided a brilliant escape from other stresses, but other times it contributed to them. Looking forward and using what I’ve learned from this year, I need to decide on and keep to a strategy and not let anything divert me away from that in 2013. If there are other distractions, I need to see sense and take time away. After all, enjoyable as it is, horse racing isn’t everything. Well, not quite :unsure Wishing you all a successful end to 2012 and a very profitable and enjoyable 2013