Kithanga
-
Posts
524 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Kithanga
-
-
Re: A question to ask yourself P.S I forgot to mention that I had my worst year for some time in 2011 with a massive losing run mid season. And still the restrictions kept coming. So it isn't always based on profit made. Must be on the type of animals you're betting on as most shortened a lot in the betting.
-
Re: A question to ask yourself Thanks for the suggestions. I've tried them all! The limits are so low (under £10) with some that more money has to be placed with the others. That on turn leads them to start limiting. You just end up placing the majority of a bet with the ones who put up with you for the longest and eventually you are just left with the exchanges. You also run out of friends to open accounts with! The problem with the exchanges is that the amounts available to bet are so small in the morning market that you really have to wait until just before the off, meaning you can often miss out completely if the odds have shortened through the day. As I said, it gets harder work to get on, you end up not getting the top odds and therefore your margins are tighter. I made great money backing in tenners, good money up to £50, a decent enough profit betting up to £100 but only a slight margin at up to £200. The stake goes up, your edge goes down and the risk increases. As we approach the start of another flat season I'm really wondering if it's worth all the effort. If I ever get to my target of £800 to £1,000 stake the edge will probably have shrunk too much. Maybe it's time to go back to the drawing board and look at more volume through the exchanges at smaller stakes. Either that or go into an easier line of business, like selling chocolate fire guards.
-
There's no getting away from it, making serious money on the horses is very hard work. It takes lots of learning, experience and continual improvements to your selection process to keep ahead of the game. Once you have mastered it and are making regular profits your expectations and ambitions grow too and inevitably so does your turnover. Whether that is via larger stakes or more bets the impact is the same. Smaller profit margins (and higher risk of a negative period) and harder work. Finally, when you've cracked all of that and are ready to really press home your advantage, our old friend the bookmaker recognises your expertise and years of hard labour by restricting your bets and closing your account. So, if you're just starting out I do think you have to ask yourself, beyond entertainment value, what is the point? Views?
-
Re: whats happend to MrMick?
I’m still popping in here Fintron but infrequently and sadly not betting at all these days.Kithanga is another one hardly on - he used to make some valuable contributions but is another MIA.
I was losing so I took a break. I started again at the end of June and was making good progress winning it back when I faced more regular problems getting my full stake accepted. This started towards the back end of last year and to my surprise continued whilst I was losing heavily early this year, leading to me closing two accounts. But it got much worse when I hit form again in July and August. It dawned on me that if my modest stakes were being reduced to ridiculously low levels I was going to need to move onto the exchanges eventually, so I gave it a go. This solved my problem of getting on but I was losing out a lot on the prices as I can’t always be at a computer in the afternoon due to work commitments. The best price guarantee, which was a very good concession, was obviously gone. In addition, I sometimes didn’t get matched, or got matched on a big drifter. I tried the exchange SP too but although it’s normally better than the industry SP it’s still no consolation when your choice has shortened by 50% in the market. I think betting seriously on the exchanges means that you need to be at your machine near the off, something I can’t commit to at the moment. Basically, although winning I decided I wasn’t winning enough to justify all the effort. So I emptied my (remaining) accounts and ended my Racing Post subscription. I still made a small loss this year but with some good previous years there was a very handsome profit overall. Enough to fund some much needed home improvements and a very nice family holiday or two. I may be back in the future, as you know how this game never lets you go once you’re hooked. However, at the moment I don’t see any way round the bookies limits. I’ve thought about writing a ‘how to’ book on horse race study as there’s lots I know about the game that can help others to turn a profit. However I’m not sure if there’s enough demand to make it worthwhile. For the time being I’m enjoying rediscovering time with the family and at the moment I really can’t be bothered! Anyway, good luck to you with both your bets and getting them on! K -
Re: Bookmakers pricing errors It's happeded a few times to me, most recently 'won' over a grand on Albaqaa on 13th April this year at Pontefract when Betfred priced it at 14-1 first thing in the morning. I only had about £100 in the account and backed it win & place. They just cancelled the bet about two hours later and claimed 'pricing error' which was within their rules. However the rules also state that if you back a horse in error the bet stands. Heads I win, tails you lose. After that I've always checked, even if it means missing the bet as you can't win. Hills won't give you your money back now but may not have paid you if it was successful either so is it worth it? It's interesting to note that Betfred got even tighter with me on accepting any bets after that. Every subsequent bet knocked back to small stakes. I guess they took offence so I just closed the account. Funny thing is that they would have made a lot out of my bad run if they'd layed the bets as they all lost!
-
Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread
I'm not in a great position to offer advice at the moment, but your reasoning seems sound to me. It can do no harm to have a break. I stepped back for a few days and had a good rest prior to taking on Epsom last weekend and I also ditched my thread to save me some time. I felt much better for it and approached the meeting in much better shape. I still got 0 from 5 though so maybe it's just part of being in a losing run. It'll end when it ends I guess and with mine I feel now it's just a matter of time as 3 very close seconds out of those five do make me think my luck is really badly out at the moment rather than any specific problem with the selections. Have a break, see how you feel when you come back but don't expect it to convert into better results straight awayHmm I really think I am lacking serious discipline just now, I'm looking for bets rather than them standing out for me and I just can't seem to lay a race down if I have spent 20-30 minutes studying them. On the other hand I don't think I am spending enough time on the races or not considering the opposition enough. Tamarind Hill started the day well but that little bit of profit has now been wiped. Going to be cutting down my bets over the coming days (1/2 a day max) to make me tighter with my selections and hopefully some winners will start coming my way. Failing that I think it will be best to have a few days away, possibly Sunday and Monday since the World Cup will have started and then back fresh for Royal Ascot. Not making a 100% decision on that yet though. The Tamarind Hill race was the only one I picked out to bet in today as I worked nightshift last night and I'm pretty shattered having slept only 9-2 so it was stupid getting involved in 4 races today. Any comments would be much appreciated. -
Re: COACHING OFFER: Horse Racing for Poker Good, glad it helped. Don't mind at all. I'm not full time, no. The racing is just something I love and I view it as another source of investment income. Something that helps build the old retirement pot as, apart from this year so far, it brings in a decent profit for me. My racing bankroll forms a small part of my overall investment portfolio as it's high risk, high return. I'd have loved to have given it a go 20 years ago but the betting tax was a killer and I didn't have the bankroll back then. To be honest, I'm sometimes glad I didn't though as it's a youngsters game and I'd hate to be reliant on it now for the whole of my income as it's far harder to keep up the work rate when your in your 40's with kids.
-
Re: COACHING OFFER: Horse Racing for Poker Happy to help /guide as much as possible as I'm sure others are on here. Hopefully this will answer your question. It's hard to explain in writing. I think it is suitable yes because it's well written and it's not a 'how to win at racing' book. It's a more geared at looking into the impact of certain aspects of form or physical attributes on the win rate and profitability. In poker terms, it's like a book that tells you your chances of making a flush draw on the turn & river, or the odds of one of your three opponents having a better starting hand than you if you hold pocket 8's, etc. It's more about showing you some basics of the game and getting you thinking outside the obvious. Like poker, the study of racing is all about thinking many moves ahead and on different levels IMO..... what's the probability of a horse winning on form? what's the market think it is? why's the market thinking in that way for this race? Has the market given too much or too little emphasis to one factor, etc, etc. I suppose what I'm trying to say is that it'll give you some basic facts and some basic ideas for you to develop your own thought processes against. The rest will be down to you in much the same way that you can't win at poker just by reading a poker book, but you can improve your game and become a winner by understanding the basic odds and the thought processes of the winners and applying them to your game. Does that make sense?
-
Re: COACHING OFFER: Horse Racing for Poker Mark, Not a problem on Betfair, but liquidity is unless it's a big meeting or you're betting nearer the off, or at short prices. If interested in systems then read Against The Odds by David-Lee Priest as it's full of interesting stats and approaches. I use the stats to confirm (or otherwise) my thoughts not as a direct method for selection. For example, if I form an opinion that two year olds foaled in Jan or Feb may have an advantage against those foaled in March or April during early season races due to their greater maturity I'd then check that out by running the stats against a database. I have to see both whether it's correct and whether it's profitable (ie not spotted by the general market). I won't use it as a system in its purest form but will factor it into my thinking and assessment of the true odds. K
-
Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Howdy mate. Just thought I'd say hello again having been away a few days. Noticed you've hit the rocks a bit recently and probably a good idea to drop the stake back a bit. Hope things pick up for you again shortly as I'm sure they will. That ROIs still looking very healthy too! K
-
Re: COACHING OFFER: Horse Racing for Poker That's a great offer Mark and best of luck with it. Some things to consider. 1. It's not as scaleable as you think as it can be very hard to get decent bets on when your accounts are marked as winning. I'm talking about some accounts that won't let me back to win more than £100 on a horse although the bigger bookies seem more accomodating at the moment. In essence you end up getting shorter odds, therefore less margin. 2. Variance. My problem this year has been variance. If it can go wrong it has and a hefty losing run has hit hard, despite it not being as bad as it could be i.e. not 1st percentile deviation. At the odds you end up taking in horse racing the variance is much higher than in poker IMO. You have to spend valuable hours studying to find a value betting situation that could be taking 10's on a 5's shot, but it's still 1-5 to lose and you'll end up with nothing for all that hard work. In poker you have a lot more action at a lot higher probability of success for each individual bet and they happen more often. 3. Time. At 5 mins per horse, average 12 runners a race, that's an hour a race just to get an overview. Not nearly enough to identify a true standout value bet most of the time, but even if it was that's only 1 bet per hour's effort if you find one in every race studied. 4. Taking the three above together. Lets say you study 6 hrs a day and back in half the races studied, 5 days a week. That's 15 bets a week. Assume two weeks hols / bad weather and you have 750 bets a year, at an average price of say 5-1 ish (assuming a 20% win rate, i.e 4-1 true price). Now work out your profit per hour betting a grand a time (if you can get that much on) and your standard deviation from that. You'll see that it's barely worth the bother some times considering the risk involved. I actually think you need to just love the horses to make it worthwhile as it just doesn't stack up as a purely money making exercise. I bet you have more than 750 bets in a single sitting never mind a year! Good luck with your search though as I do think it's worth considering adding more strings to your bow so to speak if you can accomodate the workload. From what I've read on here Billy The Punter seems to be able to mix it well in both horses and Poker. Fintron's also well read and it's worth reading his thread for guidance on how to approach a race. All the best K
-
Re: Goodwood Monday 31st May
Nice pick, it did well. Hope the rest go in for you mate3.10 I tend to follow Ryan Moore at Goodwood as he rides the track well and is often on a decent ride for an outside stable. However, Michael Stoute has CLASS IS CLASS in this race and notably drops back in trip. Today we finally get a big price about the horse as it steps up to listed company and races against horses with superior ratings. I do think the horse could have hit a higher rating now had it ran over a shorter trip than the 12f recently tackled. 20/1 Bet365 Moore also has decent mounts for hannon on DR GREEN (3.45 7/4)and CYFLYMDER (4.20 18/1) and i will be looking at doubles and trebles today In the last 2 races, he rides MOON LIGHTNING (4.55 4/1) for Tompkins and SEVENTH CAVALRY (5.30 6/1) for Alan King - back up to 12f should help. So sticking with Ryan Moore today to come up with some decent priced efforts, i avoided his 1st mount Rocker as it is up 4lb higher than best win and is a bit of a monkey sometimes so cant be trusted for me. On the other 5, i will take the 10 doubles as win bets, followed by 10 EW trebles, 5 EW 4 folds and an EW accy 10 x 0.5pts win doubles = 5pts 10 x 0.20pts EW trebles = 4pts 5 x 0.10pts EW 4 folds = 1pt 1 x 0.25pt EW accy = 0.5pts -
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary
When your luck's out it's really out. At least it ran well and I'm convinced it would have gone close with a clear run. That one's better performance has convinced me now though that it's the end of the line for this approach and thread. I gave it a go trying to back more often and playing regularly in the Handicaps (which I never do well on for some reason). I'm reverting back to my usual approach of playing in the Listed, Group and Conditions races from now on and cutting back on the bets. Hopefully I'll be able to make back some or all of the losses I've incurred this month by the end of the year. I'm off for a rest now until Friday's Epsom meeting but this'll be the last update from me on this thread. Thanks to those who've tried to help me along, particularly Fintron who's got the game nailed at the moment, Russ P, Bowles 10, Stu, Trotter, Ram and all the others. Best of luck with your selections guys and hope you don't hit a patch like I've done recently, it's soul destroying! KThe one danger is the draw on the rail and I hope Eddie Ahern doesn't find himself trapped behind weakening horses through the final 2f. -
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Yet another loser and I'm fast running out of patience with this approach of increasing the number of bets. Just the one bet today and it's exactly the type of bet and race that I've always done well with in the past so there'll be no excuses if this one doesn't run well. If it goes as well as I hope it may even spell the end of this costly experiment and send me back to betting the way I always have in the past. If it loses then I really am out of ideas and will take a break. 3.10 Goodwood. A competitive little Listed race where the favourite, Laaheb is expected to win by the majority of punters. However, this front runner has plenty of competition for the lead here today and with his best form on uphill tracks is opposable IMO. His best run of last season, when winning a Listed race, is weak form as apart from the second the remainder were out of form or running over the wrong trip. He'll come on for his debut at Sandown and could go well but I think he's not as good as his price indicates. For example, the 20-1 shot Soul City finished just over a length behind him at Sandown. So either Laaheb should be a longer price in this or Soul City is the bet of the season at 20's and I think it's the former. Palavicini is the one for me. A proven Group 3 level performer as a 3yo, this one has experience of the track when outpaced in a strong, but tactical, Group 3 at the course last season won my Mac Love (who I backed). His seasonal reappearance at Newmarket was in a much stronger race than Laaheb and he ran well before hanging when tiring up the hill. Despite that he still finished on the heels of the leaders and with the stable in much better form now he's a very strong chance at 9-2. The one danger is the draw on the rail and I hope Eddie Ahern doesn't find himself trapped behind weakening horses through the final 2f. Drunken Sailor may need this after 3 months off the track and I get the feeling this is a prep race for the Northumberland Plate later in June, especially as 10f looks on the short side for him given that entry over 2m. Indian Days is in good form and has run well here before, but as with Laaheb he's not going to get any easy time up front. A strike rate of 3 wins in 27 starts, the best being a handicap win off 91 says to me that he's not got the class for this contest. Traffic Guard has the ability to win this but, IMO, not the temprement. Therefore I expect him to go close and run well without winning. Chock A Block is hard to evaluate and could be capable of taking this based on one run from last year, however he'd struggle to win a modest handicap based on the other starts. He's a danger to the selection. Of the others Soul City is probably overpriced if he can come back to his best. So Palavicini to win at 9-2 for me. I've lumped on and will go ahead for the season if he does the business. Therefore, I make him a 2 point win bet on the thread.
-
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Newmarket 4.05 I expect Imperial Guest to be suited by the way this race is likely to be run and he's the bet at 12-1
-
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Hopefully a focus on one meeting and plenty of rest will pay dividends today. I'm at my local track today and think I'll need my raincoat. Haydock 2.00 Elnawin at 11-2 has every chance especially as I feel good ground suits him better than g/f and it's worth taking on the favourite first time up at a distance that may be short of his best. Haydock 2.30 Mister Manannan at 5-1 has the best form on the book and goes well on good ground. The lone front runner in the race, he may get his own way up front here. Haydock 3.00 In a race with plenty of pace on, I'll take the 4yo Becqu Adoree at 4-1 to continue her improvment from last season on her first start for Luca Cumani. That age group has a good record in this race. Haydock 3.30 and Main Aim is given a chance at 11-4 to confirm he's over his problems. By this time in the afternoon there's a prospect of softer ground and this will suit this animal.
-
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm making some permanent changes to this thread from here on in and I'll explain the reasons and why I believe I'm now set for a major increase in profitability for the remainder of the season. As you know, I set out this year to improve my number of bets and that has been achieved, although lately at the expense of profitability. However, it's not been a wasted exercise. Far from it. I've been stuck for years in a mode of not being able to change for fear of losing. I knew there were more bets out there and I was finding it very frustrating, despite winning well. The latest bad run that I went on has got me used to losing and the fact that I can't control when the winners will come or the quality of the ride given or the luck in running. In fact, at the odds I back at the losing run was nowhere near as bad as it could have been statistically from a random sample of 75 bets. With it happening on the flat it's also made me wonder whether I should have given up the jumps a few years ago because of a couple of bad seasons (low profit in one an a loss in the other). Therefore, I may be backing over the jumps again for the first time in ages later in the year. Each way betting has always been used by me to reduce losing runs and to 'not lose' on a race. However, it's not protected me at all in the long run, only just returning a profit and nowhere near winning back the 'win' element of a bet. I'd have been significantly better off backing win only and accepting the losing runs as a neccessary part of the process. In fact, backing more than one in a race on occasions appears the best approach if both are significantly over priced. What was most frustrating though is that once again, things started well and then turned bad, which isn't the first time this has happened when I've tried to go for more bets. Every time, I've blamed the 'losseness' and gone back to a tighter approach. However, there's possibly another explanation and this came about in conversation the other day with one of the backers that has followed my tips for many years. And it's a more simple explanation too. Basically, he did a review of my results over a few years to look for any trends (I think he realised I needed help!) and he stumbled on some very interesting facts that I'd not noticed at all. My most profitable bets are as follows: 1. Saturday & Sunday (after a midweek break) 2. Days that I've been off work 3. Periods when I've studied a low volume of races (i.e. kept it tight) My worst periods have been: 1. Toward the end of a long run of study days (i.e. final day of Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood) 2. A couple of weeks after increasing the amount of races studied (to increase number of bets) I went back and checked results myself and it seems correct. So I now have a very different possible explanation for why I suffer when increasing the number of bets. It's possibly just plain old fatigue that's leading to poor performance. And it makes sense too, especially with the trend become more pronounced as I get older and less able to focus for hours on end after a full day at work. I even mentioned in the thread the other day that I was feeling knackered and it makes total sense that I'm unlikely to be at the top of my game when I'm over tired. It could be completely wrong, but it sounds right and it's worth trying to do something about it and see if things improve. So here's what I'm going to try for a while. For a start I'll bet win only and occasionally on more than one in a race. I'll study on a Saturday and Sunday, Bank Holidays, days off and the occasional Monday when study can be done when fresh on a Sunday evening, or the first day of a festival meeting when, again, I can be sure of being reasonably fresh. Sure, I'm going to miss loads of good racing, but logic and the results are telling me that maybe I can't do a full days work, attend to kids and other family commitments and then give 100% to studying the form on a midweek evening. What I will do though is continue to have more bets on the days I do choose to study. That's how I'll increase the bets, by slackening the criteria, not by studying more races. It's got to be worth a try! The results from the thread to this point are 75 bets for 9 winners and a loss of 8.115 points. I'm going to draw a line under these results and start again from zero. I'll report the P&L at the end of each month rather than weekly and will report both the new P&L and the total (including results to date) as I want to see how much difference it makes. Hope that's ok with everyone. Finally, I'd like to thank everyone for their comments and support on the thread, it's appreciated. I'll be back tomorrow (after two days off) with a new start and hopefully some winning bets! K
-
Re: Running horses in foal?? They can often run up a sequence. In my experience it's a positive.
-
Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 All the best with that one mate. I agree that she looks well in on her best form and speed figures but was so far below her best on her debut that I passed her over.
-
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Hi Ram, It does look a pacey race yes and if anything that's my one concern regarding the selection. However, the way she took them apart at Thirsk last week was impressive and I'm not sure there's anything in the field that'll be able to go with her on that performance. It was also only her second race on fastish ground and she seemed to like it. Doctor Parkes looks a possible dropping back to the minimum but I don't like the draw in trap one as it gives him no cover. The Nifty Fox looks well handicapped but appears to need softer ground to show his best. Igoyougo was backed by me against Sirenuse last time and was outpaced throughout before staying on so I can't see that beating her with only a 4lb pull. Five Star Junior seems best at 6f to me. City Dancer was 30lbs below it's best of last year on it's seasonal debut so would have to have come on a lot for that run. Grisson has looked one paced on this ground (best run on soft). Rothsay Dancer is well handicapped on hist best form and has a good shout if back to his best especially with the likely strong pace and Royal Intruder doesn't look that well weighted to me. Therefore, I think about 5-2 would be my price for Sirenuse as I feel she's very well suited to the conditions and has scope for further improvement. What's your view?
-
Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010
I chose it too and in my current form it was doomed from the moment I put my cash on. Maybe you should check out my thread first and discount any that I've picked as well. It'd have saved you on Borderlescott and Brierty too! :loonEarlsmedic ran like a dog yesterday and on that evidence should be sent to the glue factory. When you read the form and see he has won four times wearing a visor when he makes all of the running, and then see his jockey do the complete opposite of that on the day (despite being well drawn), it makes you wonder exactly what his riding instructions were. The horse will win races this season off his mark, but predicting when could prove difficult if he keeps mixing up tactics like that. -
Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread
Nice pick mate, well done.Ailsa Craig was just beaten into 4th inside the final furlong :wall 14:40 Ripon 14 runners go to post for this race and it looks like a fairly wide open contest. I'm going to take a chance with one of the least exposed horses in the race with Northern Acres from the Dandy Nicholls yard. The horse is still a maiden after only 5 runs to date so he is still lightly raced. He was gelded before making a reappearance at Musselburgh over 9 furlongs LTO. Was well backed that day but went off too fast and was well beaen back in 7th place. Has been dropped 3lbs for that effort, Billy Cray takes off 5lbs and he takes a drop in class today which should all benefit the horse and could see him spring a surprise here. 0.5pts E/W Northern Acres @ 16/1 (Stan James - BOG) -
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Stu, see you had a good day today too, well done. Earlsmedic ran poorly on Monday finishing last of all. That's the danger with picking outsiders sometimes. Tomorrow at Ayr I'm hopeful that Sirenuse can win me some back at the 7-2 that's available this evening. She has a good draw in trap 11 near the rail and showed her best form last time out in good to firm. She appears to be on the upgrade and that's the main reason for the selection.
-
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Steve. One bet so far for tomorrow at Windsor in the 7.10 race and I like the look of Earlsmedic in this. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding his last run at Ripon as he hung badly right there on his seasonal debut last season as well. He then went on to win at Yarmouth with the visor back on and I'm looking for a similar return to form tomorrow in that piece of equipment. Both the front two in the market don't appeal to me at all and at 14-1 I'm going for a win bet as it's one of those where you're either very right or very wrong.
Fintron's Flat Thread 2011
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2011 It'll be interesting to see how this works out as I'm weak and lose in the handicaps but very profitable in these (and other) non-handicap races. You're exceptional in unpicking the handicaps so if you struggle to make the grade in this type of race it'll perhaps prove that I've been correct and that a different mindset is needed in each type of race. If you do well in these too it'll prove that you're just exceptional :lol Good luck with the thread, hope it goes well for you.