Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary So much good racing on today that I can't possibly give up yet! However, if all these lose I'll go into hiding for a while I think. Chester 3.25 I like the favourite Brae Hill in this and I'm sure he'll go well on a course he does well at. He's short though at 9-4 and I'm backing Dance and Dance each way at a bigger price (8-1) as he also likes the track and has scope to improve. Chester 5.10 I'm on Kidlat here each way. We discussed this animal in length the other day at Haydock and I was convinced conditions weren't right for him there. He's back up in trip here and this track should suit his front running style. At 12-1 he's too big. York 3.40 I'm taking a chance on Rievaulx World to bounce back to form off a good mark, each way at 40-1 Haydock 3.00 Borderlescott at 4-1 should have come on enough from his seasonal debut to take this. I backed Equiano last time out and he did it well but this time he has Benbaun taking him on for the lead and I think they'll set this up for Bastiman's runner. Haydock 4.05 I'm giving Brierty another chance each way at 8-1. I backed her at Ripon when she got no sort of a run and 5f was too sharp for at Thirsk last week. Back at 6f today, she's a sprinter in form. Goodwood 2.15 Jonny Mudball can be excused hi run on the wrong side of the track at Newmarket last time. I also think he'll like the better ground today and at 13-2 is the bet. Goodwood 2.45 Record Breaker each way at 8-1 represents good value. I backed him two outings ago and he was never put into the race. Ignore last time as he doesn't act on Soft and he's well handicapped. Goodwood 5.35 Moynahan has a poor strike rate but goes well on the track, is in form and is well handicapped each way at 7-1. Phew!
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Just done some maths on the current run of 24 losers. At the odds I've taken it's been a 32-1 chance. Therefore, I'm going to get a run like this once in every 768 bets on average. Less frequently if, as I hope, I'm taking over the odds and the true chance of defeat shorter. I've lost just over 7% of my cash betting bank on the year so far (more than the level stake points loss on here due to different staking) and nearly 19% in this losing run. The one bright point from this is that the bank is clearly sufficient in all but the most severe of bad runs. It's a bad run, but I can cope with worse. I think!
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary This is, by a long way, the single worst run I've had in my 20+ years. It's come at a time when I'm trying to expand the number of bets I'm having. This is what's happened (on a smaller scale) every other time I've tried this approach. I've just given up earlier on previous occasions. If I look at all my results from each 'attempt' as a whole they're dreadful. I started this thread with the aim of not giving in this time and a belief that all I needed to do was stick with it. The results just don't offer any encouragement at all though. When do you concede that something just doesn't work for you, no matter how well it may work for others? Is stopping now quiting or is it recognising and acting on the facts? About the only thing I'm clear on is that I'm knackered having looked at racing most days for the last 8 weeks and the temptation to revert back to my comfort zone has never been stronger. Not sure what I'll do, or whether this bad feeling will pass in a few hours but I've given back a good few quid of last years winnings so far and can't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I can see an 'emergency exit' though and may well pass through it
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'll take Mattamia to end my bad run in the 3.10 at Chepstow at 11-2. Suited by g/f ground this one struggled in bad ground on his reappearance in a decent class 3 at Nottingham.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary
Thanks Stu, appreciated. It is hard to keep going sometimes, but essential that a punter gets used to the losing runs to become a long term winner I think. Sometimes though it's just a lot of cash to see exiting the bank account!Don't worry about your bad run K, we all go through them, some more than others admittedly but you come across well educated in the game so I believe things will turn around for you. You do know what they say about buses... Just take a look at all three of my threads, I think al three were in a loss at one point and I now have 2 threads in profit and 1 still at a small loss albeit it has been turned round from a medium loss that I was really starting to think where it was going to end. You just have to keep believing in your selections and what you are doing is right and eventually your fortune should change. I definately think it helps with people leaving these comments, I speak to stewartd on msn and he always said to just keep at it and things would change and within a week I had hit a few winners. Keep it up mate and :hope for some winners :) -
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary 4.35 Haydock Jawaab each way at 10-1 looks to have a sound chance in this. He ran well until lack of a recent run took effect in the final furlong last time over 1m 2f. He appears to do best when turned out quickly and with only 12 days since his last start I can see him improving on his first start of the season on a course he seems to like.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary An interesting point about this race for me. The ones I'd want to back (if the correct price is available) are Webbow, Jordaura and Just Bond as I believe all three may well go close for different reasons. That means I wouldn't be interested in the others at any price. The reason is that I don't feel comfortable backing something I don't think will win, even if it appears to be overpriced. Mainly due to the fact that pricing them isn't an exact science. It's not like I'm passing up 50-1 on number 6 on the roulette wheel. Maybe that's wrong. In this race Kidlat who, as stated above, I think will struggle with this mark over the shorter trip is 16-1 against my assessment of 9-1. Should I therefore back it? Lets say I do back him and he's outpaced at a key point in the race (as he was last time here in identical conditions). That's really going to grate. If I leave him alone and he wins I can at least console myself with the thought that I just got the assessment of him wrong. Thoughts?
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Lots of good comments guys. My views are: Webbow: As Ram say is 8yo and lacks scope for improvement but does have an easier task here in class 3 than he did for most of last year in class 2. He run some really good races off this mark and with the top weight being only 9-04 he's not overly burdened. Has just shades it for me but not at the current prices. Jordaura: 1m is the limit of his stamina IMO on breeding and he's shown good pace at both 6f and 7f. A lot of this field are either exposed at 1m or ideally require slightly further. Therefore, I feel he should be able to use his better pace to good effect. I'm not overly concerned about the ground due to his good form over shorter as I don't think he'll be outpaced and he ran ok on it at Leicester last year. More of a concern is the overall pace in the race with so many prominently ridden. His race over 1m at Ascot was slowly run and so didn't test his stamina. His good finish was understandable against milers so I'm not reading too much positive into that run. I've basically used it to confirm that he's in form and no more. Kidlat: He struggled off marks in the high 70's on turf last season and had the run of the race when winning from the front over 10f at Kempton. He ran well here the other week in a race that favoured hold up horses (he was held up). There's every chance a strong pace again here will benefit him although Just Bond easily passed him last time and idled in front. Therefore, I don't rate him as highly as Just Bond and feel a mark of 82 is just a little too high.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thx SER, I wasn't expecting 'em to price up early at Haydock. Although there's still not much to go at in the prices. I like Webbow too as things look just right for him and quite a lot lower in class than normal with the race likely to be run to suit. I'm not as keen on Kidlat though as he looked to have every chance last time and may need to drop a couple of pounds for me. Jordaura is the other that interests me and I'm probably more likely to get a price on that one given Spotlight's chosen Webbow. Hi Fin, excellent day for you today mate, well done again. I've chilled a bit about the run now. Just hurt at the time. If anything I'm taking a positive from it and that's that I'm getting used to the short term up's and down's although some more up's would be nice :lol. I think it's all part of what I wanted to do this year in increasing the number of bets, I'm bound to get longer and more frequent bad runs. Finished the 4.35 now too: Spirit Is Needed 5-1 The Last Alzao 13-2 Ahlawy 7-1 Jawaab 7-1 Caster Sugar 8-1 Bollin Greta 11-1 Chookie Hamilton 12-1 King's Head 14-1 Pictorial 16-1 El Diego 20-1
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Nice one mate.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Just one race studied so far, the 3.25 at Haydock, and prices I've got are: Webbow 11-2 Jordaura 6-1 Ezdeyaad 6-1 Just Bond 13-2 Kidlat 9-1 Gala Casino Star 10-1 Mujaadel 16-1 Trans Sonic 16-1 Carnivore 18-1 Fastnet Storm 20-1 which looks fairly close to the R.Post forecast so not looking like a betting race unless the bookies price up differently in the morning.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I managed to better just over 9-2 on that one on Betfair with the R4 and he was backed into 11-4 fav but still I'm searching for a winner to end the drought. There's one highlight from this losing run and that's the fact that I'm becomming immune to the losers now. Previously every single loser used to really hurt and I'd fret over it afterwards. Now, well it's just another to add to the list and if I can keep getting significantly over the odds (as I have for almost every bet on the thread so far) it'll come good in the end. Either that or I'll lose the entire contents of my betting bank and will holiday in a tent in the back garden this year.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary One bet tonight in the 7.30 at Carlisle. With the withdrawal of Dream Of Olwyn, Celtic Change now looks like a decent price at 9-2 to take this. He's run well on similar tracks and ground in the past and is about a point over the odds here IMO
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Very interesting that you've spotted that one up at Carlisle as I considered it too. It's the only race I've looked at tomorrow and it wasn't an easy animal to price up. It all hinges on whether you overlook it's last 3 defeats. The final one of last year can be discounted on account of it maybe having gone over the top. The first this season as it may have needed the run (it did last year) but it's latest start when back at a track it had previously won on was very disappointing, especially as it weakened as soon as it hit the hill. Maybe it still needed it as it did track a strong pace that day and hadn't had much of a race at Ponte earlier. I priced it at about 11-1 by the way, so it is slightly overpriced IMO even with the doubts. I need something a little stronger myself though for my next bet as confidence is low and I also have Wovoka at 11-1, who's also available at 14's, those being the only two that look slightly out of line to me. Good luck with it, hope it goes well for you.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Good comments guys, I recognise both the examples you gave. I think we just have to give ourselves a good talking to sometimes and remind ourselves of our ground rules. I actually upped my personal stakes on Saturday by 50% as I was confident of winning and wanted to make a big dent in the recent losses. Stupidity always seems to be rewarded with a good spanking by lady luck. I noticed that I haven't put up any of my ground rules, so here they are to remind me of what I'm supposed to be doing. They are built on the experience of the last 20 years and are probably what's kept me in profit for the last few years. It seems that I only tend to move away from them when losing and that generally makes things worse and I eventually revert back, which is about where I am at the moment. Race Types: Handicaps (class 4 and above), Conditions, Listed & Group are best for me. Ignore maidens (too little info), claimers, sellers and class 5 and below (too inconsistent). Age: 2yo's are out as they can improve so much from run to run. 3yo only are mostly missed out early season, especially over 7f+ where there's so little form and so much potential improvement at the new trip & with a winter on their back. The only exception is the 3yo only non handicaps which are much more readable in some cases due to the quality of the animals involved. Price: Always price up a race, even if it looks obvious and only back the ones (with a chance) that are value. The 'with a chance' means I won't back something that's overpriced if I have a significant doubt about it or there are too many unknowns when pricing it up. I tend to find this is taking the value approach too far for me if I back these. For example, a badly out of form stable with one that's not run for a while and is priced at 20-1 when I have it at 14-1. I can leave those alone without any regrets as I actually think there's probably too many unknowns to be confident about the price. Runners: Avoid big field races (16+ runners) unless there's a bias or trend that takes a fair proportion of the field out. It takes too long to study, the margins are poorer and their's more incentive to have a (bad) bet as it's taken hours to study. The best races are about 5 to 13 runners. Staking: Be consistent, reserve the smaller stakes for the races that show the smallest long term margin and the bigger stakes for the ones that show the biggest margin. Obvious really. That's it for now.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks for the encouragement Fin, appreciated. Just needed 24 hours away from the racing to let the dust settle. Thread P&L is now 61 Bets for 9 Winners and a Loss of 2.275 points. The losing run is now 21 bets, with little sign of a breakthrough. I must admit to breaking the golden rule recently as the desparation for a winner has got hold. That is, I've been trying to find the winner instead of the value. It doesn't matter too much when they win, or when the value horse loses, but it matters in the long term and is just pure daft. One example is the race completed in depth from day 1 at York (see above) Omokoroa who's value price after I'd finalised the form was edged into 14-1 was backed at 11-1. I still had Mannlichen priced at 8-1 and left it unbacked (save for a small saver at 16-1). Why? I just fancied it more and went with gut feel. Stupid really, although no harm done as Mannlichen didn't win either. However, harm was done at Thirsk on Saturday as Damika returned to form with the rail draw and won at 6-1 having been 11-1 (pre R4) in the morning and 6-1 on my prices. I backed Discanti at 7-2 who was priced at 7-2 by me. Doctor Parkes was the other 'value price' in the race although not with the same amount of margin. That really does have to go down as a missed opportunity and boy did it hurt. Other plays on Saturday were: Gordonsville 6-1 (my price 9-2) - ok Jaconet 11-4 (my price 11-4) - Erm! Igoyougo 9-2 (my price 5-1) - Doh! Ok, so what've I learned. That you can't predict the run of wins/losses and have no control over a winning or losing run and when it will start or end. Trying to end a losing run by going for the winner in a race sometimes works but you really notice it when it doesn't and your value selection storms in. There's no worse feeling in racing for me. Looking forward, I have to return to backing the value and not worry about when this bad run will end. It will end, eventually and I'll get back in front, but not if I forget to obtain value in my search for a winnner. Back later in the week.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary :puke Time for a break
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Four selections for me today and I'm very hopeful of not making it 21 consecutive losers. However, in my current form, anything's possible. Newmarket 3.25 Gordonsville is now 6-1 with one firm and I'll take this without the BOG as a win bet. Seems to be coming back into form, has wins over the trip and class and has run well at Newmarket before. Favourite had a hard race last time out and looks worth taking on. Thirsk 4.25 I'll take Discanti at 7-2 to overcome his poor draw and win this. Unexposed over the trip he beat my selection (Brierty) comfortably last time out showing a good turn of speed and appears on the upgrade. Damika and Doctor Parkes look like the main dangers. Thirsk 5.00 Jaconet ran well at York the other day and I'm hoping she has too much speed on this sharp track for the favourite who I think may need softer and/or a stiffer finish. A good bet at the 11-4 available. Thirsk 5.30 Igoyougo is well drawn, in form and potentially on the upgrade so ticks all the boxes at the 9-2 currently available.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Well, that tweaking made a great difference didn't it! 17 losers and counting :sad
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Really fantastic tipping over the last few weeks. It was only a matter of time before some of those places started being converted into winners. It's not like you're playing in the easy races either as most are competitive handicaps. I don't know how you do it, but hope you keep it going and paste them bookies. :ok
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm also going to take a win bet on Carioca in the 3.10 race at York at 7-2. I'm concerned that the favourite, Hafawa will take too keen a hold in this race. The selection is a progressive front runner who settles well and can therefore set the fractions under Fallon.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'll take a win bet on Issabella Gem to improve on her run behind Fatanah and take the 2.55 at Newbury at 25-1. She looked inexperienced and made up a lot of ground from off the pace that day and is overpriced.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Yet another bad day at the office and I'm not at all happy with the current strike rate and profit. I feel that I'm in danger of wasting a whole season of potential profit if I don't do something about it. After all it's mid May and I've made hardly anything at all from a large number of bets. Time for some slight adjustments I think. Having reviewed my bets to date, I know where I need to make changes and these will start with immediate effect. The P&L for the thread currently stands at 55 bets with 8 winners. It's generated a small profit of 3.725 points or 6.7% ROI as at the end of today. Let's see if I can do any better from here on in. Wish me luck :ok
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Re: Philss_99's Flat Season Thread 2010 No worries, it'll be good to see you back
Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary
:nana 32 on the trot. Bad run broken - hopefully