[Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks for the support guys, appreciated. I just hope I'm able to stick with it and get my target number of bets struck. In previous years I've tended to tighten up whenever a losing run hits and revert back to a very selective approach that I know is profitable. By far the biggest challenge will therefore be to hit or exceed my target number of bets and still hit my target ROI of 10-20%. That'd give me a big increase in £ profit if I can do it and I think it's much easier than trying to hit the ROI that I got last year. It was way above average and down to having over three quarters of close finishes going my way on some big priced animals, so not maintainable in the long run. You may need to keep me focussed when my confidence starts to disappear :unsure When calculating the profit/loss I'll assume that all bets are carrying the same 1 point win or 1/2 point each way stake and will use the highest price available on Oddschecker that has BOG when I post the selections. Until Saturday.......

[Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary]

Hello again everyone.

Punting gets underway for 2010 this weekend for me with the start of the Flat turf season at Doncaster. It seems like an age since I ‘packed in’ for the Winter back in mid October and, having had only one bet in all that time (a close 12^th of 13), I’m raring to go.

Looking back for a moment, 2009 was a very good year for me with my best ever ROI of just over 60% and a worst losing run of just 12 bets. It was a small sample size though (only 120 bets) so my goal for this year is to attempt to have around twice as many bets whilst achieving an ROI of around 10-20%.

I’ve started this diary thread as I’m trying to improve on my approach this year and I’m interested in your thoughts and feedback. As the title suggests it’ll be a diary so in addition to the bets it’ll give an insight into my thinking too. I hope you enjoy reading it and hopefully you’ll all contribute to it too. And with luck in running it’ll hopefully make a few quid. :hope

K.

[Bookie refused bets?]

Re: Bookie refused bets? I'm not sure Billy, hence the thread. I'm just surprised (given it's not clear cut) that none of these punters have thought to challenge it. Or maybe they have and it wouldn't fly. I don't know it's just that the whole business model and offering of a bookie is that you can win money if you correctly predict an outcome. Then, when you do, they limit or bar you. If I opened an 'all you can eat' restaurant and that was it's only offering/purpose and then I started telling big eaters they were only allowed one portion I'd be done under trade description surely. I can understand them wanting to control their liability but surely it should be consistent for all customers. For example, maximum of £1000 bet at advertised price for all clients is equal and fair. A bet of £10,000 to a known losing client and refusal for a winner is not equality is it? K

[Bookie refused bets?]

Both Nevison and Veitch mention in their books that it's hard to 'get on'. How is it that nobody has challenged this legally yet? In any other form of business discriminating against a customer would get you in hot water so why do the bookies get away with reducing bets and closing accounts without challenge - anyone know? There was a report in the paper about Bet365 having their 4/1+ free bet offer advert pulled from Channel 4 after they wouldn't offer the facility to all clients and a couple complained to the advertising watchdog. Any ideas why they get away with this? K

[Betting Bank]

I'd like your views on what I think are two very important and interesting aspects of successful betting. 1) What the correct size of a permanent betting bank should be to get the right balance between safety (not running out of cash or worrying about running out) and profitability (best % return on the money in the bank). For this example lets assume that you bet between 1 and 4 points per selection, have an average stake of 2 points, a strike rate of 20% (range of 15% to 25%) and a profit on turnover of 15% (range 5% to 25%). 2) The method of increasing stakes that's easiest to execute in practice and makes best use of the profits being generated. For example, increase the stakes in proportion to the bank as it increases or remain on the same stake and increase based on bank size at fixed intervals (monthly, season, year, etc) or any others you prefer. I'll start of with my views: 1) I would say that an 80 point bank would be correct as it would take a really bad run of 40 losers or three of 15 split by the odd winner right at the start of the period to break the bank and this is very unlikely. Assuming a normal winning run for the first 100 bets or so of 30 points, the Bank would be very well protected through to the end of the chosen period. 2) My preference would be to choose a sample size (say 250 bets) that's big enough to even out some of the short term variance but small enough to get the stakes moving up. Given the assumptions above, the 250 bets would, on average, generate 500 points of turnover and a profit of 75 points, giving a 155 point bank. I'd then hold back about half of the profit in a reserve bank and increase the stakes. This is because, as the stakes rise, your ability to replace the entire (now larger) bank from other sources is assumed to be lower. So in this example I'd hold back about 35 points, making my new bank 120 points and increasing stakes by 50%. Over time the % difference between the two banks would reduce, effectively creating a complete reserve bank by the time you are betting large sums. Would love to see your thoughts on this. K

[Remember When.....]

Re: Remember When..... This thread takes me back! Remember the board markers that they used to employ to mark up the prices? Red for the fav, blue for the other runners. In our local independent bookies all you had to do was keep the young girl chatting and she'd miss some of the market moves so you could get the higher price. It was a much better atmosphere all round in those days!

[Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010 Nice winners recently. Good to see your getting back on track mate. :clap

[Dave Nevison - disillusioned value punter?]

Re: Dave Nevison - disillusioned value punter?

I probably study differently to most. I continually look for under/over rated performances. Pinpointing under rated performances is the key to making this game play - end of. In short the whole reason behind my bets is that the horse is better than generally percieved. The handicapper and media have under rated this horse therefore so will the odds compilers. A selection of mine is likely to be over priced as a matter of course. So, I will have the horse in mind, then when entered I will make sure all is ok, the race suits etc. I will then price him up, now like I say almost all of the time the price will be bigger than "my price". On the rare occasions where the horse perhaps isn't as under rated as I thought and he is under the price I expected then I will not back him - I'd say this is around 5% of the time, maybe even less. The remainder of the time the horse is a bet and the stake is determined by the price, ie how much value he is, I already know he IS value but my stake will go up the bigger he is priced. I know others do but I do not pick a race at "random" and then do a tissue, without prior opinion on runners, and then act on that tissue. However, I may look at a race without prior opinion on the runners if I feel the race is "attractive". The race may lack depth or I may not fancy the short fav or whatever. I will then look into the race to hopefully find something over priced/under rated. But it won't be a case of backing 8/1 shots I think should be 7 or 13/2 - to me that does not give enough margin for error, I will look for horses massively over priced, double the price they should be or thereabouts. I usually find myself backing 50/1 shots that I think should be 20s or 20/1 shots that should be 10s and so on. Of course not every time will I find something to back. I've only posted two "backs" in the meeting threads this year (Brenda Duke and that bumper at Southwell last week), they are good examples of what I mean. It's a tactic that serves me very well and I urge any value seeker to look toward the rags for market mistakes rather than deciding whether or not a 9/2 shot (who you've done no previous research on) should be 4s or 5s. :ok

I couldn't agree more, what an excellent post. Look for the big mistakes where you have a strong opinion/view that's not widely shared. The only thing I don't agree with is that you should always tend toward the rags as there's plenty of 4-1 shots that should be half that price too. The hard part is obviously getting your opinion more accurate than the market which is where the hard work comes in. K

[Info about Catterick racecourse please]

Re: Info about Catterick racecourse please Cheers guys.

[Info about Catterick racecourse please]

Hi all and a Happy New Year. Just doing some research prep for the 2010 flat season and two of the pieces of info I have on Catterick contrdict each other. Can any of you who've been there help me out? For the 5f start the Raceform course description has the height above sea as 61 yards and the entrance to the straight as 60 yards (same as the winning post), yet the timeform description says the 5f course runs steeply downhill to being with, which agrees with the map on the R.Post website which does seem to show a significant drop. Which one is correct, does anyone know? K

[Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

Thanks again for your input K.

Your welcome - just wanted to pass on what I learned when I went through this approach many years ago. By the way, I totally agree with the value approach - it's the only way to win as far as I'm concerned so don't give up on it, nor on creating a tissue. I suppose what I'm saying is don't spend valuable time doing a full tissue on a hard race looking to pick up a marginal value bet on an animal that's 6-1 when it should be 5-1 when you know any one of five could win it. Either take an animal that's 12-1 instead of 5-1 in that type of tricky race or go to another race where there may be only two or three strong contenders and one's priced out at 6-1 when it should be 3-1. Best of luck.. k

[Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010]

Re: Fin's Long Term Value Based Thread For 2010

I got a copy of Dave Nevison's Gamblers Diary for Christmas and it has given me a bit of impetus to try with the true value approach again. I have a method of betting that suits me for the jumps handicap chases and I have a way of betting that suits me for turf, but on the all-weather I have struggled of late, as I did towards the back end of last season. It was clear to me that the methods I use for turf are not immediately transferrable to the AW, so I am going to try my luck with a thread for flat bets that looks for true value - you draw up a tissue and identify selections if they are available at prices bigger than you think they should be. I aim to work to the error margin Nevsion talks of in his second book - 15 %. I may be a little flexible on this at times but the overall aim is to cut down on the number of bets I have in 2010 and this margin will hopefully help do that. My overall betting aims for 2010: 1) Become more selective 2) Up my stakes on horses I am really confident about 3) Spend less time overall studying racing (with a thesis to write up and a baby on the way I need to cut back on form study overall), however, spend more time researching each-individual race. I think drawing up a tissue requires indepth study, and that is why I have elected this as my method of choice for this thread. The plan is to trial this on the AW until the flat kicks in again, and then I will hopefully have the option of sticking with it through the turf season or will pack it in and pick back up the flat methods from 2009. Staking is the issue I am unsure of at the minute. To start with I'll go with a 1-12 point scale.

Hi Fin, Happy New Year and congrats on the oscars. Also congrats on the nipper on the way. I'm going to be controversial and try and put you off this approach as I don't believe it'll work for you at all and I think you'll end up wasting a lot of time at a point in your life you're saying you can least afford it. Assuming you're correct about every price, which is a massive assumption given all the variables in racing, let's say you make about 10% profit. However, you need to be getting enough volume of transactions to smooth out the 'luck' and that goes directly against your rule #1. Just try running a few trials in your spreadsheet using a strike rate of 20% and a return of 10% to see what I mean over say 200 transactions. Your returns differ substantially based purely on a random outcome (with a guaranteed built in profit) and there are many losing trials. You've got to run this over many thousand transactions before you make a profit on most of the trials and there are still big losses along the way if you graph the outcome. That's many more transactions (bets) than you're planning. It would take a special type of punter to keep on backing selections that they may not actually fancy that much just because of the price unless you're lucky and see the rewards quickly. Even then the profit could disappear quickly too on a bad run of luck making you think you're making the wroing decisions when you may infact be correct. Look at some of the spreadsheet example graphs you end up with (that have guaranteed built in profit remember) and ask yourself if you really could keep betting that way in reality. I don't think many could and I'd predict that (unless you start off well) you'll give up this approach long before the variance of results can even out as doubts will creep in about your own ability to price up correctly. I don't think you can generate a true set of value prices anywhere near enough times unless you have an ability to judge it objectively every time. You won't. Especially when things aren't going well as you'll price up the animals you think will win at short odds without realising you're doing it. Just stick with what you did on the 2009 flat, but cut down the bets to those where you strongly believe that you have an edge in the price, cutting out the ones where the foundations for your reasoning is weakest. Your outcome should be 'no bet' more often as that is the best answer a lot of the time. Every time you bet you're saying you know more than everyone else's opinion combined. Do you really think you have this edge in every race you study? I really don't think many people can plod along backing animals they've no strong opinion on at 8-1 just because they think they should be 13-2. Back the ones that you do have a strong opinion on that are overpriced and I think you'll naturally cut down your bets and also win easily this year at a much better % than 10. Best of luck for the year, hope it goes well for you. K

[Help RE Results]

Re: Help RE Results It's from my Raceform Interactive database.

[Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts Fin, Well done mate, a really good result over a sustained period. It was a great read too! Cheers, K.

[Compiling Odds from a Rating System]

Re: Compiling Odds from a Rating System

Hi guys, Just joined the forum and loads of great advice and information but not exactly what I am looking for so I wonder if anyone can help. I want to be able to fairly quickly and mechanically create a set of horse racing odds based on a rating system that I am using. Basically, suppose I have a system that has rated four horses out of 100, and let us suppose that it accurately reflects their abilities in the conditions of the race (course, distance, going etc.). Ratings come out as follows: A 85 B 75 C 50 D 40

Hi & welcome :welcome This may not be quite what you're looking for but hopefully it'll help. Try using percentages based on the previous item on the list. Your individual ratings are meaningless unless compared in some way to the others. So, using your example, it'd go as follows. A 85 points B has 75% of the chance of the 85 point horse = 63 points C has 50% of the chance of the 75 point horse = 37 points D 40% of 50 points = 20 points for a total of 205 points and prices of A 6-4 B 9-4 C 9-2 D 10-1 K.

[Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Interesting stats fin although still quite a small sample being over only a few months. I fully understand making the decision on basis of time available though. I've had to do the same. I just wouldn't want you to make the same mistake I think I might have done in hindsight. I bet across all races, age groups etc in the 80's & 90's and made good profits (0-5%ish after tax) to low stakes. I looked into results as you are doing and gradually chopped out losing or marginally profitable areas. I got to the 00's making much better percentages on much bigger stakes. That prompted me to focus more and chop more out. However, in 2003 when I bet only in non handicap races on the flat I had a dismal run of 1 win in 30 races in my supposed best area. I did recover to win on the season but it was a massive wake up call. I've tried to re-introduce other races since as I think I took it too far. But it's difficult once your betting bigger amounts as I was really starting all over again learning about these races. And I've struggled, particularly with the handicaps. When I looked into them early this season it looked like I'd made nothing other than a small loss over the whole timeframe on these races. I've broken things down since and can see that I was making a profit in these races years ago and a loss more recently. Clearly I was doing something different. I was being pushed towards the low value animals based on my 'fear' of losing. I realised (recently) that it was almost as if my fear of losing was making me lose. I then looked in why and did a lot of work on it. I'm pleased to say it's helped as I'm now profitable (and confident) in this area at last since around June this year. But it took a drop in stake and a lot of work to achieve it. Therefore, it has eventually dawned on me that I can make a profit on pretty much any type of race if I put the work in and accept that losing runs will occur no matter how much work I put in or how much I refine the selection approach. Therefore, I just need to choose an area (so I can get to know the animals and form) based on time available. That's what I've done only recently (you replied to my recent post on this). I like backing on races with exposed form but can only really focus fully on weekends and occasional midweek as time off allows. Therefore, I'm focussed now on all 3yo+ races in class 1,2 & 3 which mostly land at the bigger meetings and at weekend. I'm feeling more confident than ever and have finally settled on an approach that fits my lifestyle. So focussing on a type of race due to time available I agree with. But try not to do it for the other reason. I'd actually advise that you look into why you're not profitable in these races and try to work that out rather than exclude them. I did and this and it was really useful. Since Hitchens came in for me at 10's on Saturday I've had 5 straight losers, mostly not even troubling the judge. For the first time in ages though I'm not bothered by it as my bank is big enough and I'm confident I took value prices. So, in summary my advice would be. Don't chop too much out based on returns. Look into why the returns are poor instead and fix it so you keep the number of bets and turnover up. Best of luck mate & hope the winning run returns soon. K

[Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

The other two aims I have are to try cut out bets in the class 5 and 6 races as much as possible. The profit from such bets is nowhere near the same level as it is for class 4 handicaps or upwards

Are you sure mate? If it's a profit then that's good and gives you some knowledge of the better animals as they move up into your class 4's. Also, what's your sample size? Is it big enough to draw a firm conclusion on? With regard to not chasing at all weather evening meetings, I'd agree. Pick your races to consider the night before and stick to them. Best of luck in October. Your form analysis and value finding are spot on. That hasn't changed, just the luck in running. Most of all keep going as even if you blow the whole profit you'll learn from it and from what I've picked up about your staking level, that isn't gonna break you financially. Better to do the learning now before you head into larger stakes as you need to be very clear on your approach by then. Hope that helps K

[Ascot - Sat 26th Sept]

Re: Ascot - Sat 26th Sept 4.50 Tropical Paradise is a tentative selection in a tricky Listed event. This normally goes to an unexposed 3yo without a penalty so I'm looking to the bottom of the card here. This filly has hit form recently winning in ground softer than she'd like from Enact last time. That form was franked with that one's run in the class 2 handicap here yesterday. I always try to follow fillies in form at this time of year and this one fits the bill. Being from a smaller stables I'm getting a decent price too at around 5-1.

[Haydock - Sat 26th Sept]

Re: Haydock - Sat 26th Sept 3.00 I've backed Hitchens to win this at 10-1 with Paddy Power. He travelled well through his race in the Gold Cup last weekend when drawn on the unfavoured stands side. Considering that was on good ground it was his best performance of the season. He's 3 from 10 in Good to Firm or firmer and 3 from 10 over 6f. I think he's either had the ground or trip against him on most starts this season and I expect him to bounce back to form here on my local track. 3.30 Fol Hollow carries my cash in this and hopefully he'll take his first class 2 race of his career. He's in sparkling form at the moment and should be very well suited by this trip and ground. There are plenty of dangers but at the 10-1 available this morning I'll take this progressive 4yo to take the prize.

[profit on outlay]

Re: profit on outlay

Did you really mean to say less than 8%? Not being funny but that sounds really small and like it could easily be wiped out with a little bad luck. You'd need a very large sample to even out the bad runs. I'm only asking because it's something I struggle with from time to time. The question I always face is...Do I go only for the ones I know are outstanding value and suffer long gaps and few bets in a season. Or do I take more risks and go far a small % but (in theory) higher cash amount. It seems if I focus on the smaller number of bets (as this year - only 94 so far) I feel I have much more control and am more confident of a successful season and it seems to work. When I try to branch out and have more bets it feels very much more risky as the value is less obvious and I don't feel in control any more. It feels like I'm just playing a pure maths game in that instance not really caring whether any individual animal wins or not just hoping that I've been correct with the value and it turns out ok at season end. For the record I think 20% is achievable especially on a small sample and tight control. Fintron's doing exceptionally well with his thread hitting about this % but with many more bets; a real class performance in my book. K

Robert, You've taken my 'question' out of context. I've repeated the whole of my post above and you'll see that my question was to Billy The Punter about whether he'd mistyped when quoting less than 8% as I was surprised given my current profit level and the one the you quoted earlier in the thread which I had read and taken in. The paragraph you quoted was me supporting the original poster by agreeing that it's a question I often ask myself followed by my view of what I think is achievable; not a direct question to you or anyone else. Basically, you misunderstood the intention of my post. And, whilst I welcome constructive feedback and suggestions too, I must say that I didn't like the tone of those first couple of sentences. Hope that's cleared it up and no hard feelings. K

[Ascot 25th Sept]

Re: Ascot 25th Sept 2.35 Macdillon (each way) was thought enough of to enter in a £64,000 class 2 handicap on only his fourth career start back in June at York when he was an 8-1 chance. He was lost his action that day and was off for 2 months before returning with a promising effort at Sandown over 5f a few weeks ago. He travelled well that day and stayed on, looking as though this return to 6f would suit. He was good enough to split Shamwari Lodge and Swiss Diva on his seasonal debut and with improvement likely he's the unexposed one in this field. The 11-1 with Paddy Power looks too big. 3.45 Snoqualmie Girl (win) was a nice 12-1 early price winner for me at Chester a couple of weeks ago when she just pipped Traffic Guard by a head with the rest 6l away. She'd warmed up for that race by finishing 4th behind Tanoura at York after a two month break. She looks to be back in top form and is proven in this grade. I can't have Phillipina at this trip despite the trainers fine record in the race and the main danger comes from Polly's Mark who's progressive and took apart a decent enough field of handicappers last time out over CD. I didn't rate her Listed win at Newbury too highly though as I thought the majority of the opposition failed to stay that day. The selection has mixed it with genuine group types so that gives her the proven edge for me and at 2nd favourite odds of around 7-2 is a solid bet. K.

[Do you know your horses?]

Re: Do you know your horses? p.s. I'll let you know how I get on in a few months.

[Do you know your horses?]

Re: Do you know your horses? Thanks everyone for your comments, useful reading. I'll have a look at those other threads you mentioned BH. The idea came to me yesterday because, as you probably know, I'm comfortable with my performance in the Group & Listed races and have been trying to improve my break even performance in handicaps. I really know pretty much all the animals in the Group / Listed area and have watched their videos and can pretty much read a race just from looking at the names now. Reading the form just refreshes my memory of the race. It got me wondering whether that was why I was winning so well in those races as opposed to my handicaps where I bet across all the classes. When reading the form of a handicap I have rarely come across most of the horses and certainly don't know much about the ones that have finished near them in their recent races. So I can't really form my own opinions without a lot of detailed study which is then wasted if I dont come across that animal again in the future. When I looked at my class 2 handicap results since 2000 I've won a significant % roi on them and I got to thinking that maybe it was because I do see them week in week out when watching the racing on a Saturday or a big meeting. It appears logical. Perhaps it was bad luck that the first class 2 handicap that I looked at today was full of class 3/4 animals and that prompted the thread. Maybe it's telling me that I should be on the 3yo's in that race as these are the most likely improvers that can move up to a class 2. Hmmm, gotta go and re-read those 3yo's at the Ponte 3.30........ Cheers guys, very helpful. K

[Do you know your horses?]

I'm currently playing around with the idea of choosing a certain type of race to follow due to the fact that I'll see the same horses running time & again. The theory being that I'll get to know them and their requirements much better, improving the speed at which I can assess a race and the resulting profit level. Sounds simple but it's not proving easy to define what the 'type' should be......Does anyone else do this? Are there any problems with this approach that you've found? Does it work for you? Splitting them by distance, for example 5/6f sprinters seems fine at first but is difficult to keep going when you're looking into a class 6 handicap at Redcar on a day of Class 1/2 middle distance races at the better courses. Splitting by class 1/2 has similar problems. Horses don't stick to the same class of races so the theory of seeing the same ones running isn't true. Tomorrow's class 2 handicap at Ponte for example has only one runner that's been in a class 2 race in it's last three runs and that was 11th of 17. It's looks more like a class 3 contest whereas Kempton's class 3 handicap is full of animal who've previously raced at class 1 & 2. Thoughts?

[profit on outlay]

Re: profit on outlay Yes, agreed Billy. I also found that advertising short term success upped the calls. The biggest effect was from the 'Maximum bet today' advert. Big call volumes. Strangly though, the call volumes dropped the next day after some pretty big winning days. Mad really, never could get my head around what it was the callers were after. Just seemed so random.