Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Both placed, that's two nil to you as I'm still waiting for mine to finish! Well done mate, good picking. I thought you were a bit unlucky with the second one as he looked to be going well turning in.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Well, what can I say. Record Breaker didn't break my record start of year losing run. Held up off the back of a slow pace was no use to him and I've got to wonder what Fanning was thinking. Musaafer was hammered in the betting down to 6-4 fav, but with my curse on him he never looked to have enough pace to take it. Why Hills felt that an animal with an entry in the Irish Derby and a win at Pontefract over a mile would be suited by a crawl and sprint for the line round Lingfield is beyond me. I know it's my pocket talking but sometimes it's just beyond belief how some horses are ridden. That's 14 bets, 1 winner and -3.075 and I'm completely cheesed off :sad
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm too undecided in the 2.10 so will leave that alone. Just the two bets for today then as described above: Record Breaker 14-1 to win the 2.45 and Musaafer at 9-4, again to win in the 3.15. K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Lucky Redback is now a non runner so I'll have to have another look at that race. Record Breaker is available at 14-1 with the guarantee so I'd recommend taking that price. Additional bet in the 3.15 race a Listed contest over 1m. I'm sweet on Musaafer in this as I was impressed with his first run on the AW when beaten by Mendip who's gone on to much better things. He followed up at Ponte easily before pulling to hard and finding nothing in a Grp 1 on his final start. I'd expect him to lead in this and be hard to pass and I have him as favourite over Carnaby Street. He's currently trading at 9-4 although one or too folk got on at 3-1 last night ;) so I'd suggest a win bet. Back later
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Not much decent flat racing out there on Saturday so just the two selections for me and anybody else out there still following me. :unsure My first attempt is going to be in the 2.10 at Lingfield, a quite competitive 14 runner handicap over 7f. It looks as though there's going to be a good pace on here with at least 2 maybe more front runners and a host of prominently ridden types. Therefore I'm looking for a strong traveller that has the pace to hold it's own over 6f, is normally held up and has proven it can stay 7f, maybe more. Oh, and preferably unexposed to give it that little edge over the handicapper. On that basis, I've plumped for Lucky Redback despite it's poor draw out wide in stall 14 on the understanding that Ryan Moore will be able to tuck in behind the likely strong pace and come wide round the final bend where the fastest ground appears to be. This 4yo is unexposed having had only 10 starts, winning 3 and missing the whole of 2009. He's not had a strongly run race yet this season but has shown he retains ability when winning over 6f here. A bad run in the blinkers last time should be ignored as should his previous start when staying on off a slow pace and I think he's worth another chance. He's currently showing at 7-1 but I'll wait for the other bookies to open in the morning as I think we'll get better than that for our win bet. The second attempt runs in the following race, the 2.45 over 12f. I like the look of Record Breaker in this, again to win given the field size and place terms. I had him as almost twice his actual odds when he ran at Donny last week due to the ground. Ignore that run and he's in with every chance in this event based on his previous start and his run at Ascot last season (ignoring his below par Meydan runs). He's a proven performer in this grade and will be there or thereabouts. Again, it's worth waiting for the morning odds as the 12-1 currently on offer may be bettered and I'll update tomorrow morning on both selections. K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thx Fin. Not a bad race in some respects as my selection was well placed if good enough. He just failed to keep on at the very point in the race I thought he'd come good. Fol Hollow again looked like he's a 5f horse by fading toward the finish and Prime Defender never looked in the hunt. Baldemar was never travelling better than at the finish and he'll be of interest in a big field handicap on a more galloping track next time. Overall though this is one of the worst starts to a season I've ever had with just one winner in 12 bets and a loss of 1.075 points. One from 16 was my worst run of last year with 12 on the bounce at one point in that sequence. My worst ever run of one (at 5-4) from 32 is looking in reach! The really hard part is that this has come at the start of the season at the start of a new, more open method. Perhaps being more open means more of these types of sequences and I just have to get used to it? I don't know. All I do know is that it's confidence sapping and I'm wondering how long I can keep things going this way. I need a winner to give me a boost. Hopefully tomorrow will be kinder. K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary One bet today in the 6.45 at Wolverhampton. This is a really good class 2 handicap over 6f and a race with a good betting shape. I backed the favourite, Prime Defender, last time out but wasn't impressed with his finishing effort as I thought he could and should have won that race. I may be wrong but I want to be against him in this more competitive event. Best of the market leaders is Fol Hollow who's well handicapped on his turf form and should go well, although I feel he's shown his best efforts at 5f. As a front runner he's going to have to get the 6f really well to make all which is a doubt and his price reflects his chance. Further down the prices two look interesting. Ceremonial Jade drops back to 6f and has good form at the trip from his 5yo days. A slight doubt remains over whether he'll have the pace to travel well enough over this trip now that he's 7yo, especially as Fol Hollow may well make this 5f pace early on. He was a little overpriced though at the early 14-1 which has now gone and there may be a little bit of value left at the 12-1 still showing. The other much more interesting type is Beat The Bell and he's the selection at a generous looking 10-1. The gelding returned to somewhere near his best last time out when showing far too much pace for a moderate bunch at Lingfield in a class 4. Ok, he had a tailwind, but he still clocked a very good time and more importantly he was clear of the field early in the race. As a 5yo, he's still got scope to improve is nicely weighted and with the stable coming back into form recently has a major chance in this. He's prominently ridden so should be suited by stall 1 and given the pace he showed last time I think he'll be able to keep tabs on Fol Hollow even if that one sets a strong 5f pace. I'd hope he'll sit of the leader in 2nd/3rd and then keep on better in the straight. I'd advise a win bet given the shape of the race and number of runners. K
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010
Well picked mate, round one to you I think :clap2.50 Nottingham WI DUD is an enigmatic character and she has only won twice in her 31 race career. However, its rare for her to contest races down at this level, she is usually competing in listed and group races. With a good record fresh and placed form in a Haydock Group 2 on soft ground last season, she is my selection here, with Jamie Spencer (who has a good record for Kevin Ryan) booked to ride. Advised bet: Wi Dud, 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds). -
Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Well, that's what you get for rushing out a few selections, a good old fashioned beating. It was always on the cards as can be seen from the doubts I had in last nights post and I'm not happy. :sad The first ran ok, holding on for place money and I don't have a big problem with that selection as it had conditions that suited it and was just beaten by better animals on the day. Bet two was all about the fact that I didn't like the look of the jolly first time up and I was desperate to find one to beat her. I had thought of a no bet given the fact that not one of the contenders were proven or even held out promise of being suited by conditions and the run of the race. I wish I had as Trip The Light who'd previously been 0 from 3 on anything softer than good and needed a few runs to hit form on each previous season duly romps home on it's seasonal debut. It was one of the first I dismissed but well done to others on the forum who picked him - good call. My selection who was unproven on soft but I hoped he would handle the conditions. He didn't. Perhaps it was that word 'hoped' that says it all about that bet and I'm not pleased with it at all. Bet three ran a stinker and that's just one of those things, nothing I can do about that one as something was clearly amiss. Anyway, updated results are: Bets : 11 Wins : 1 Profit / Loss : -0.075 K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Three for me today as follows 2.50 Nottingham Rebel Duke each way at 14-1. A trappy event but this ones fit from the all weather and goes well on the ground. 3.10 Catterick Crackentorp each way at 15-2. Unexposed and scope for improvement after only six runs. 3.50 Nottingham Tastahil win at 11-4. Class act in this and the fav, although having more long term potential, has to improve on this his seasonal debut May give more background later if time permits
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Not a lot of early prices on show this evening so I'll have to finalise the selections in the morning. It's another challenging day of decision making though with the strongest options in many of the races looking as though they'll be going to post at prohibitive odds. Although that leaves potential wagers amongst the remainder of the field, I'll be finding it hard to pull the trigger and go against the animal I think will win. It's so much easier playing this value approach when you actually believe the market leader(s) probably won't win and others with strong chances are sitting at long odds. That's the way I'm used to doing it and it works. There just aren't that many of them in a season. Going against fancied horses just because others are overpriced is new ground for me but I still suspect that it's the only way I'm going to get the turnover I need and remove the frustration of what would otherwise be another 'no bet' day after several hours of study. I knew this challenge would be hard, but already this is harder than I ever imagined. Back tomorrow with two, possible three selections from the meetings at Nottingham and Catterick. K.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks for the comment Russ. I'll be back later with (price permitting) selections for Nottingham tomorrow as there's a couple of decent events mixed in with the class 5/6 fodder. K
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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Looking forward to it Fintron. You gave some great advice and big priced winners last season and I enjoyed reading your write ups. Hope it goes well for you and you manage to beat last years ROI this time round. I'll be trying my best to beat you though! :ok
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Not a bad day overall. Shamwari Lodge was an impressive winner, just not a backable price. She took a little while to hit top gear against this moderate opposition though so maybe a straight track and more time to get organised will suit next time. I'd be looking to oppose her at a short price on a turning track in a big field as I feel she'd need a bit of luck in running. Light From Mars didn't quite have the pace to get into the frame over the 7f trip after a tardy start. The draw was a concern though and I've no complaints with the ride James gave him; just one of those things really. Watch out for him though as he's still on the upgrade and it's cash lent rather than lost, especially over a more galloping 7f or a mile. My saver didn't do too well from his better draw, hampered after a furlong and never really travelling after. Bet number 2 went better although I'm gutted that the fav was a non runner at a 30p Rule 4. There's just no way it'd have won off that pace and to my mind that's 30% down the pan. The final race was as competitive as expected without the desired result. The winner was one of only 6 I fancied. How did I miss it! ;) As stated above, not bad really and a small profit on the day. I don't quite feel I've had the rub of the green yet though with a few 2nds and bad luck in running, or am I watching through rose tinted specs. ttfn. K.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks for the comments guys. I agree, it'll be interesting to see how things work out. In answer to your question Fin; yes I do back across a range of stakes from about 1 to 4 points. One of the things I'm hoping for from this exercise is that when I do really fancy one, it'll ensure I put plenty on to differentiate it from the majority of wagers. With it being early season most of my stakes so far have been around 1.5 points so a fairly cautious start. On to the remainder of my bets today. I've decided to 'no bet' the Listed race at 3.15. I strongly fancy the favourite Shamwari Lodge to take this but it's a little short at around 7-4. I also like the look of the second best too, but there's little margin in that price either. Of the others Black Dahlia comes out as 'value' at the 14-1 available this morning as I have her at 11-1. However, even though I'm trying for more bets I'm determind not to break one of my golden rules and go for an animal I don't think will win just because it's a higher price. From experience, I'd just end up hoping to get a return and that's never a positive frame of mind to be in. Instead I'm going for a win bet on Soundbite at 4-1 in the 4.55 an open looking 2m handicap. At the 5 day stage he was engaged in the £20k guaranteed Mussleburgh handicap tomorrow in which he finshed 2 and 3/4l 3rd last year off a mark of 73. He takes up this engagement due to not making the cut in that event and I think that's a good sign as he gets in here off 67 against a modest looking bunch. There's not a lot of pace in this contest and I think that counts against the 10yo favourite Cold Turkey and gives my gelding, who races near the front and has form at shorter, every chance of making his better pace tell. My final bet goes in the 5.25, a mind bogglingly difficult handicap which I nearly swerved completely. However, I've gone for an each way bet on Sonning Gate at 14-1 as I think this has the right profile for a race of this nature being lightly raced, having bags of physical scope, being suited by polytrack (2 from 2) and near the top of the handicap. His Lingfield maiden win as a 2yo couldn't have worked out any better with animals he comfortably beat winning and running close of marks in the mid 80's and 90's. Clearly with 315 days off the track he's had his problems but I think he's worth a dabble given that he'll take some beating if back to anywhere near his best. Obviously the trainer isn't known for readying one up first time, but the price compensates for that doubt. Best of luck if you follow them. I'm back next Saturday. Till then.... K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary With no decent action on the flat I’ve had some good thinking time during the week to assess whether or not this new, more open style of betting is going to work for me. I know it’s only early in the season and I’ve had only the 5 bets but the thing is, the Kempton card on Saturday has given me some real challenges which I’ll come onto in a bit.
Looking back at last weekend, I know that sticking to my previous methods, I would have had a maximum of one bet, maybe none at all. Prime Defender in the Listed race was my strongest selection of the weekend at a price I thought was very generous. To be honest though, I may not even have backed in that given that I had doubts about his resolution in a finish. Or maybe I would have bet just to ensure that the hours of study weren’t entirely wasted.
I think that explains nicely the problem of having a low number of selections. Namely, the fact that after about six hours of study I’d have been a little cheesed off to be having no action so would have plumped for the best of the day. Now that’s fine when it runs the great race it did, coming a close second at 16-1, but a very different matter when it trails into mid division and one of your other fancies on the day that you haven’t backed goes and wins nicely. There were so many occasions where I felt really good having backed one or two animals in the day and got the other fancies beat. There’s no feeling like it. You’ve successfully narrowed a whole bunch of races down to a couple of solid selections and watched them hose in, brilliant, you were right! However, the flip side is unbearable. On one occasion over a three week period my carefully crafted selections were showing the same athletic ability as a new born foal and hadn’t troubled the judge in three bets. Yes, you’ve read correctly three bets in three weeks at the height of the flat season. It wouldn’t have been so bad if there weren’t two separate days on which I ‘picked’ two from two at prices above my assessment but didn’t back them as there were either doubts in my mind or the race was too competitive and I could see three or four in the race that were over priced. That’s how the desire came about this year to get stuck into anything I thought was decent value, even if it meant selecting in competitive races in which I may be able to identify more than one over priced animal.
Ok, so what’s this got to do with Kempton on Saturday? Well, it’s exactly the type of card that I know for a fact would be a no bet day if I were playing as tight as last season. A perfectly solveable Listed race with an unbackably short favourite that looks like it should do the business, a number of trappy looking conditions races, a handicap full of three year old improvers and three trappy, competitive handicaps. Let’s be sensible I’d think, wait for another day, be professional. Then I’d watch each race thinking….â€please [insert name of horse] don’t win, please don’t win†as it’s in with every chance inside the final furlong. As they flashed past the post it’d be either “good decision, knew it was right to keep things tight†or “b******, why didn’t I back itâ€. But this weekend will be different because this time I’ll be shouting home all four of the little beauties I’ve singled out as very backable at the likely prices.
Last weekend was quite easy as it was my first try. It was a very different way to play for me and although it felt right maybe that’s because the results weren’t too unkind and a small profit was made. Going in hard again this weekend takes much more courage because it’s not new anymore and things might not go as well. In other words it’s scary. Not the money side you see, just the matter of getting it wrong. The pride bit.
I think it’s right though. It feels right to be shouting those overpriced ones home rather than willing them to lose. Hopefully we’ll get one flashing past the judge in first this weekend, maybe more. If not, I hope I’m able to keep this positive mindset going and play long enough for the value to come through. I’m not under any illusions though, it’ll be easier to take a losing run once I’m well in front than right at the beginning. Let’s hope they’re kind to me again tomorrow afternoon.
Onto the first of the selections and it runs in the 3.50 at Kempton, a very competitive 16 runner handicap in which there are many possibilities. Personally, I’ve had one main bet at decent odds along with a saver on a shorter priced but still undervalued alternative. I’ll stick with the main bet for the purposes of this diary and it’s number 4, Light From Mars each way. I’m on at 20-1 but will note the price as 16-1 for the purposes of the P&L as that seems to be the price that’s currently obtainable. This is an animal that nearly won me a few quid at Sandown early last season over a mile when just collared at the line by Dunn’o who reopposes today. He’s lightly raced with a progressive profile and, apart from the draw in trap 5, has lots going for him tomorrow. The likely stong pace should suit as his best efforts of last year were over a strongly run 7f. I’d expect to see him in mid division in about 6th and staying on strongly into the straight. I’ve priced him at 10-1 so there plenty of value in the current price.
I’ll post the rest of the selections tomorrow once I’ve got the prices through. Until then, please post any thoughts you have on what I’ve writtent above, whether it’s support, agreement or telling me my approach is way off track! I’d welcome all views.
Until tomorrow……..
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Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Yep, good start Russ, just one of those placed animals winning would have put you well in front at the prices. Enjoyed reading the write ups and reasoning. K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Sorry, profit of 0.225, King Olav's was 1/4 the odds a place. Forgot to put the price up too of 5-1.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary A miserable day today with both selections nicely backed but not handling the conditions anywhere near as well as anticipated. Still, not too much damage done and confidence unharmed - so far! Normally over the two days I'd have struggled to find more than one bet so turnover wise it's been good and I'm on track to hit my target number of bets in the season. Nothing more from me until Saturday at Kempton Park. Thank goodness I hear you mutter after today's two! So the final totals for March are: Bets : 5 Wins : 0 and a massive profit of : 0.10 points :) Until Saturday..... K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary A good day yesterday although a little frustrating with all three selections finishing second. All were winning bets each way bets though so no harm done. Hopefully I'll go one better today with two speculative wagers from the couple of races I've looked at. The first goes in the 3.35 a 7 runner conditions race. If the prices were as printed in the R.Post this morning I'd have been on the fav at a juicy looking 3-1. However, no doubt as a result of the four timer Hanagan pulled off yesterday it's trading at around 7-4. That means there's likely to be value elsewhere and I'll side with the bottom one, Hidden Brief to win at 11-2. Although backing 4yo fillies against older colts is normally the way to quickly lose a lot of cash I think this one has potential to improve with today's stamina test. By Barathea, this filly looks sure to appreciate the extra two furlongs today and has displayed good battling qualities on a number of occasions last year including in dead ground. Maybe the low weight of 8-07 will help too as the fav needs to shoulder a 6lb penalty meaning she's only a few lbs different in the weights than if this were a handicap. Selection number two is Miss Bootylishes in the 5.15 race to win at 7-1. She's shown her best form in todays conditions, has a nice low weight to carry and is now back taking on her own sex in this handicap. The ground coinditions and the headwind worry me about the front three in the betting, particulary the 2nd fav's. Frankie has his only ride of the day on the jolly who, if she handles the conditions, may well win this comfortably, but I'd rather take the longer odds on the joint R.Post top rated. K.
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Russ, although 1st one's a non runner now. One final bet for me today goes in the Kempton 2.50, King Olav each way. I'm looking for an unexposed type here that can track the likely strong pace with so many front runners. The selection loves it here with three wins and two places from 6 starts and as he's only raced 15 times I think there's more to come. Hopefully he'll tuck in behind the pace in mid div and show his usual turn of foot in the straight. K
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Two more for the opening day. In the 2.00 at Doncaster I'm taking Elliptical at 12-1 each way. This gelding has a good draw in stall 8 and should be able to race up with the pace on the far side. He travelled really well when last encountering this ground at Salisbury and pulled away strongly at the business end. I'm ignoring his last two starts as I believe he's best fresh and has lots of scope to improve. The 2.30 is a strange one as I'm either reading it all wrong or there's tremendous value to be had. I'm ignoring the poor runs in Dubai from Prime Defender and going with this proven Listed performer who has better ratings in the book than most of these and has been keeping top company over the last 3 years. At 16-1, he's worth a punt each way. K
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Re: Congratulations to Fintron - He is going to be a daddy Congrats mate, you'll be teaching him how to study the form before you know it!
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Ok, here goes, wish me luck! First bet of the new campaign goes in the Lincoln at 3.10 and it's the bottom one Prime Exhibit at 12-1 each way. I'm expecting the low drawn animals to have the edge in this and, with the going soft, I want to be on something that's going to be up close throughout and staying on. I like the way he travels through his races and I think the low weight and 3lb claim will help too. More to follow tomorrow. K.
Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thx for the support Fin. However ....... I've thought about the volume of bets I've had in the last two weeks and I think that maybe, in trying to loosen up a little, I've been overdoing it. 14 bets in two weeks at the start of the season puts me in line for far more bets than I'd been trying for and it's not suiting me at all. I just don't feel confident with it. Therefore, from here on in I'm going to tighten up a touch. Not to the extent that I would normally do, as I still want to get more bets in the year. But I am going to change my approach a little and hopefully that'll pay off. Not much damage done so far with -3 ish points so a good time to wake up and realise my mistakes of the last couple of weeks I think. Apologies to anyone following who's lost money following the selections these last two weeks. I know I can get things back on track, just needed to re-learn some lessons. Back on Wednesday at Newmarket ......maybe! K