KikoCy

The Tottenham is at full form and scoring at will, the City is not at its best, the defense has issues and can not serve the plan of coach Guardiola, now I expect match with many goals and will suggest the over 2,5
MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.80

Thanks for the mention @StevieDay1983 and agreed on Boro, they have been reliable for me this season.
 
Glad my definite picks all came through last week.
 
 
Middlesbrough - West Ham
 
Aitor Karanka has instilled some impressive defensive discipline in his side with 40% of their home games ending in a clean sheet as well and 60% U2.5.
 
Based off what I have seen of Boro, they can defend well and also have problems scoring. Negredo's goals this season have been quite lucky, Traore has no final product and I see their main threat as Ramirez.
 
West Ham are in a transitioning phase and have had some difficult away fixtures in the past 6, with the exception of Swansea.
 
The previous fixture between these 2 ended in 1-1.
 
I personally will go with U2.5 @ 1.615.
 
 
 
Crystal Palace - Everton
@mindfulness , I agree with everything you said and you definitely know Palace more than I do.
Everton have had some dodgy away form recently but their battering of City at home speaks volumes of their suitability to the 3-4-2-1 formation.
I reckon if implemented, they can shut out Palace's attack. Benteke scored two goals in the FA Cup but I can't see him penetrating the Everton defence.
 
Palace lost to the Hammers (ha) last weekend and I anticipated a much closer scoreline but the game was not a complete hammering. Without Zaha, I don't see them being very effective going forward. Perhaps it's a leadership issue too?
 
Everton win @ 2.375 has value, in my opinion
 
O2.5 @ 2.05 is also a tasty price and I think this is due to their H2H games generally falling U2.5. I personally view form > H2H, any day of the week. 60% on average O2.5 for both teams. It's risky though. It comes down to Palace scoring.
 
Perhaps wait to see projected line-ups/formations; Palace played Bolton mid-week and rested a few key players but still had to come out and come back for a victory.
 
 
 
Stoke - Manchester United
 
I see United coming out for blood in this game after their abysmal performance at home (looking at you Pogba) vs Liverpool.
 
Stoke stole a point off them in the previous fixture with Joe Allen's 82nd minute equalizer and I can see the egos in the team coming together.
 
Mourinho will also have them fired up as every game now has turned into a must-win.
 
Strangely, both these sides perform better away from home.
 
United, undefeated in 12.
 
Stoke on the other hand have won their last two vs WAT and SUN but I can't see anything past a United win here and to be honest, my rationale is based mainly off United's ability instead of anything else.
 
United win @ 1.615
 
 
 
Manchester City - Spurs
 
Spurs are arguably the most in-form team in the EPL right now and it's fitting that they play City this weekend.
 
The previous fixture between these two saw Spurs absolutely dominate. I remember watching the game and not believing how well they managed to close out City. Poch is a great tactician but we shall see this weekend whether Pep will respond in kind.
 
City on the back of a 4-0 drubbing to Everton will come out with a point to prove. Nonetheless, they seem to be lacking that cohesiveness as a team and the cutting edge they used to have.
 
Spurs missing Vertonghen but I can see Aldeweireld commanding the defence well with the inclusion of Wimmer most likely. I expect a big game from Eriksen, Walker and Kane.
 
Otamendi and Stones are the definition of liability. Fernandinho, Kompany, Gundogan are a sore loss. Fernando is 50/50 as he took a knock. 
X2 @ 1.70 is a ridiculous price for me. I would back Spurs to get at least a draw.
 
Spurs win @ 3.70 is also decent -1EH @ 8.00 from my bookie is also not a bad price at all (as per @andrewcalo's suggestion)
 
Spurs win 0-2 @ 17.00 will get a small punt from me.
 
To be honest though, the bookies set the prices for a reason but I feel they have got this one wrong. Any further insight would be appreciated! I am full on the Spurs bandwagon for now.
 
 
 
Southampton – Leicester
 
I will continue to bet against Soton, despite Leicester’s abysmal form away from home.
 
This game has U2.5 written all over it as well as draw.
 
It will probably be a 0-0 or 1-1.
 
Going with the unders on this one as Mahrez, Slimani gone to AFCON and Ulloa pending a fitness test for LEI and Soton also missing Boufal due to knee injury.
 
U2.5 @ 1.65
 
X @ 3.50
 
Correct score of 0-0 @ 7.50
 
 
Chelsea – Hull
 
I can’t see past Chelsea on this one, they remain quality. I won’t bother with a write up but rather I am eyeing out only one bet and hopefully Snodgrass doesn’t ruin it!
 
Not much value in any other markets in my opinion.
 
Chelsea win to nil @ 1.70
 
 
 
WBA – Sunderland
 
Sunderland have a problem scoring goals and quite a few of them have been penalties.
 
I read somewhere that WBA have given away only 1 pen this season? I might be wrong.
 
Nonetheless, WBA at home are decent and I can’t look past them either.
 
That being said does anyone know whether Brunt, Evans or Nyom are back this weekend?
 
U2.5 @ 1.80 for me
 
Good luck fellas, I am open to anything I missed or any criticism.
I might not play all of these but these are the ones that stand out to me currently.
As mentioned earlier, the prices are a bit too correct.

Thanks for the mention @StevieDay1983 and agreed on Boro, they have been reliable for me this season.
 
Glad my definite picks all came through last week.
 
 
Middlesbrough - West Ham
 
Aitor Karanka has instilled some impressive defensive discipline in his side with 40% of their home games ending in a clean sheet as well and 60% U2.5.
 
Based off what I have seen of Boro, they can defend well and also have problems scoring. Negredo's goals this season have been quite lucky, Traore has no final product and I see their main threat as Ramirez.
 
West Ham are in a transitioning phase and have had some difficult away fixtures in the past 6, with the exception of Swansea.
 
The previous fixture between these 2 ended in 1-1.
 
I personally will go with U2.5 @ 1.615.
 
 
 
Crystal Palace - Everton
@mindfulness , I agree with everything you said and you definitely know Palace more than I do.
Everton have had some dodgy away form recently but their battering of City at home speaks volumes of their suitability to the 3-4-2-1 formation.
I reckon if implemented, they can shut out Palace's attack. Benteke scored two goals in the FA Cup but I can't see him penetrating the Everton defence.
 
Palace lost to the Hammers (ha) last weekend and I anticipated a much closer scoreline but the game was not a complete hammering. Without Zaha, I don't see them being very effective going forward. Perhaps it's a leadership issue too?
 
Everton win @ 2.375 has value, in my opinion
 
O2.5 @ 2.05 is also a tasty price and I think this is due to their H2H games generally falling U2.5. I personally view form > H2H, any day of the week. 60% on average O2.5 for both teams. It's risky though. It comes down to Palace scoring.
 
Perhaps wait to see projected line-ups/formations; Palace played Bolton mid-week and rested a few key players but still had to come out and come back for a victory.
 
 
 
Stoke - Manchester United
 
I see United coming out for blood in this game after their abysmal performance at home (looking at you Pogba) vs Liverpool.
 
Stoke stole a point off them in the previous fixture with Joe Allen's 82nd minute equalizer and I can see the egos in the team coming together.
 
Mourinho will also have them fired up as every game now has turned into a must-win.
 
Strangely, both these sides perform better away from home.
 
United, undefeated in 12.
 
Stoke on the other hand have won their last two vs WAT and SUN but I can't see anything past a United win here and to be honest, my rationale is based mainly off United's ability instead of anything else.
 
United win @ 1.615
 
 
 
Manchester City - Spurs
 
Spurs are arguably the most in-form team in the EPL right now and it's fitting that they play City this weekend.
 
The previous fixture between these two saw Spurs absolutely dominate. I remember watching the game and not believing how well they managed to close out City. Poch is a great tactician but we shall see this weekend whether Pep will respond in kind.
 
City on the back of a 4-0 drubbing to Everton will come out with a point to prove. Nonetheless, they seem to be lacking that cohesiveness as a team and the cutting edge they used to have.
 
Spurs missing Vertonghen but I can see Aldeweireld commanding the defence well with the inclusion of Wimmer most likely. I expect a big game from Eriksen, Walker and Kane.
 
Otamendi and Stones are the definition of liability. Fernandinho, Kompany, Gundogan are a sore loss. Fernando is 50/50 as he took a knock. 
X2 @ 1.70 is a ridiculous price for me. I would back Spurs to get at least a draw.
 
Spurs win @ 3.70 is also decent -1EH @ 8.00 from my bookie is also not a bad price at all (as per @andrewcalo's suggestion)
 
Spurs win 0-2 @ 17.00 will get a small punt from me.
 
To be honest though, the bookies set the prices for a reason but I feel they have got this one wrong. Any further insight would be appreciated! I am full on the Spurs bandwagon for now.
 
 
 
Southampton – Leicester
 
I will continue to bet against Soton, despite Leicester’s abysmal form away from home.
 
This game has U2.5 written all over it as well as draw.
 
It will probably be a 0-0 or 1-1.
 
Going with the unders on this one as Mahrez, Slimani gone to AFCON and Ulloa pending a fitness test for LEI and Soton also missing Boufal due to knee injury.
 
U2.5 @ 1.65
 
X @ 3.50
 
Correct score of 0-0 @ 7.50
 
 
Chelsea – Hull
 
I can’t see past Chelsea on this one, they remain quality. I won’t bother with a write up but rather I am eyeing out only one bet and hopefully Snodgrass doesn’t ruin it!
 
Not much value in any other markets in my opinion.
 
Chelsea win to nil @ 1.70
 
 
 
WBA – Sunderland
 
Sunderland have a problem scoring goals and quite a few of them have been penalties.
 
I read somewhere that WBA have given away only 1 pen this season? I might be wrong.
 
Nonetheless, WBA at home are decent and I can’t look past them either.
 
That being said does anyone know whether Brunt, Evans or Nyom are back this weekend?
 
U2.5 @ 1.80 for me
 
Good luck fellas, I am open to anything I missed or any criticism.
I might not play all of these but these are the ones that stand out to me currently.
As mentioned earlier, the prices are a bit too correct.

@StevieDay1983 , Haha not really as I believe we have only lost once to Everton since being back in the EPL - our matches normally end in low scoring draws and I expect something similar on Saturday. If anything Everton's result against City will benefit us as Palace away will probably be a dank and drizzly comedown for the Everton wonder kids compared to the glamour of thrashing City - a distorted result I might add.
I like Everton very much this year, strong manager in Koeman and some of the most exciting young players in EPL right now. Problem is you should never expect consistency from young players, seen it time and time again over the seasons.
As for Palace, it wont be news to anyone that we are completely terrible at the momment although 3-0 flattered West Ham at the weekend, first goal was always crucial there. We do indeed miss Zaha, a very important player and top performer this year but our problems run a lot deeper than missing one player. Confidence is just so low right now, players have completely lost winning mentality and no signs of that recovering under Allardyce thus far.
Despite this I do not really fear Everton, infact I would prefer them to a fellow relegation battler or top 4 contender, they are in the goldilocks zone of teams to face right now imo.
I was hoping the two teams respective results would completely distort the market in Everton's favour for Saturday. So far this hasn't happened with markets pricing game accurately imo, Palace would need to be +0.50 approaching EVS for value play here. First things first mind, midweek FA Cup replay at home to Bolton, I don't expect us to field full strength team but should have some first teamers involved to buildup match fitness and confidence. Will wait to see how that pans out before returning to Palace V Everton, I suspect it will be a no bet situation given how accurate the prices have been in EPL this year.

My mate once told me never to include Middlesbrough in an accumulator because they are a punter's nightmare. It appears you share his feelings now. Personally, they've never let me down. Especially with win to nil outcomes! Bloody love Karanka and his meticulous organisation of the defence.

Hi all, long time lurker here.
Took a break and I am back to my betting ways.
I agree with @Spooner
Lots of value on Burnley 1X (double chance) and DNB.
I will probably go on the U2.5 market and my reasoning is as follows.
Soton are currently in disarray.  I quote from Reddit, with regards to Jose Fonte's transfer request. 
 
This sound a bit similar to Payet's WH transfer request but I have more faith in Bilic being respected in the locker room than Puel.
It could also explain how they closed down Liverpool and played reasonably better than expected, granted Mane was out for LIV; obviously fired up to prove a point.
edit: I thought about this and the return of Shane Long is actually quite important so keep this in mind when betting against Soton. Their ability to get a result will depend on whether he turns up. If I remember correctly, he links up well with Tadic.
Given this, it would be difficult to see if they play for the manager or against the manager. They got smashed at Everton yet bounced back to make the FA cup final.
I am considering for this one:
U2.5 @ 1.60 - Dyche has set up a formidable defensive unit, especially at home. Burnley this season are tripping up team where they are the underdogs, similar to WH last year. Not the same playing style though.
1X (double chance) @ 1.66 is a great price too. All things considered, you seldom get such 1X prices for home teams outside of the big 5.
1 @ 3.60 (Burnley win) is a good price and those feeling risky and backing Burnley can get 1 & U2.5 @ 6.00 which is worth a small stake in my opinion.
 
Other bets I am considering:
Watford - Middlesbrough:
U2.5 @ 1.50. This price is a bit too low for my liking, expected 1.61 - 1.66 but it's worth a shout for any accas I reckon.
Watford clean sheet @ 2.50 - Middlesbrough look generally toothless and incapable of making clear cut chances. Watford's defence not the best but I like 2.50 CS for WAT. My bookie is giving this as MID U0.5 goals at FT.
 
Swansea - Arsenal:
Neil Taylor is out from what I know. 
@andrewcalo you can probably fill us in on the team news but I see Arsenal smashing Swansea.
2 @ 1.53 is alright & -1 EH @ 2.30 also a decent price. Might think about this a bit more tonight before hedging any bets.
 
Spurs - WBA:
Spurs to win to nil @ 1.909 
I only see Matt Philips being a threat in and around the box. 
WBA's main strength is their set pieces with Phillips and more importantly, Brunt being able to deliver good balls to McAuley and Rondon.
Nonetheless, I can't look past Spur's defensive cohesiveness in this one, especially at home. I am sure Poch will prepare for this.
 
Also considering -
Hammers - Palace
 X @ 3.30
A must win for both teams, Allardyce will be prepared but I am sure WH has a point to prove at home, also with the Payet drama going on. Expect Lanzini and Antonio to step up.
Antonio subject to late fitness test, illness. Ayew off to AFCON. 
Payet apparently agreed personal terms with Marseille 30 minutes ago. I quote from yesterday:
Jan 12: "Until he changes his attitude, he is out of the team and he's not going to train with us." Zaha off to AFCON, Benteke and McArthur subject to a late fitness test.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them cancel each other out.
Perhaps U2.5? 
 
Everton - Manchester City
BTTS @ 1.66
Toffees missing Gueye who I rate highly. Schneiderlin back but lacking match fitness and I can see them frail at the back.
City has been very unconvincing at the back between Otamendi, Stones and Zabaleta. There seems to be communication issues with Bravo and I can't see them keeping a clean sheet at Goodison Park.
Perhaps a Lukaku anytime goalscorer?
 
As a United fan, I am staying away from United - Liverpool. I don't see us losing and Mourinho might park the bus to counter. U2.5 is likely. Biggest game of the season and it will be a reserved encounter I reckon.
None of the other games are much of interest.
Open to any other ideas and feedback.
Good luck.

I can see Pulis parking the bus, no problem.
The issue is WBA scoring but I would be surprised if Spurs win with more than 1-2 goals.

Merson also threw me off there! Prices ain't dropping just yet though.

A little factor to consider is that Sean Dyche was devastated by the death of Graham Taylor. He's certainly going to be emotionally affected this weekend so could see him bring more passion and determination out of his side. I would not be surprised to see Burnley get the win.

Hi all, long time lurker here.
Took a break and I am back to my betting ways.
I agree with @Spooner
Lots of value on Burnley 1X (double chance) and DNB.
I will probably go on the U2.5 market and my reasoning is as follows.
Soton are currently in disarray.  I quote from Reddit, with regards to Jose Fonte's transfer request. 
 
This sound a bit similar to Payet's WH transfer request but I have more faith in Bilic being respected in the locker room than Puel.
It could also explain how they closed down Liverpool and played reasonably better than expected, granted Mane was out for LIV; obviously fired up to prove a point.
edit: I thought about this and the return of Shane Long is actually quite important so keep this in mind when betting against Soton. Their ability to get a result will depend on whether he turns up. If I remember correctly, he links up well with Tadic.
Given this, it would be difficult to see if they play for the manager or against the manager. They got smashed at Everton yet bounced back to make the FA cup final.
I am considering for this one:
U2.5 @ 1.60 - Dyche has set up a formidable defensive unit, especially at home. Burnley this season are tripping up team where they are the underdogs, similar to WH last year. Not the same playing style though.
1X (double chance) @ 1.66 is a great price too. All things considered, you seldom get such 1X prices for home teams outside of the big 5.
1 @ 3.60 (Burnley win) is a good price and those feeling risky and backing Burnley can get 1 & U2.5 @ 6.00 which is worth a small stake in my opinion.
 
Other bets I am considering:
Watford - Middlesbrough:
U2.5 @ 1.50. This price is a bit too low for my liking, expected 1.61 - 1.66 but it's worth a shout for any accas I reckon.
Watford clean sheet @ 2.50 - Middlesbrough look generally toothless and incapable of making clear cut chances. Watford's defence not the best but I like 2.50 CS for WAT. My bookie is giving this as MID U0.5 goals at FT.
 
Swansea - Arsenal:
Neil Taylor is out from what I know. 
@andrewcalo you can probably fill us in on the team news but I see Arsenal smashing Swansea.
2 @ 1.53 is alright & -1 EH @ 2.30 also a decent price. Might think about this a bit more tonight before hedging any bets.
 
Spurs - WBA:
Spurs to win to nil @ 1.909 
I only see Matt Philips being a threat in and around the box. 
WBA's main strength is their set pieces with Phillips and more importantly, Brunt being able to deliver good balls to McAuley and Rondon.
Nonetheless, I can't look past Spur's defensive cohesiveness in this one, especially at home. I am sure Poch will prepare for this.
 
Also considering -
Hammers - Palace
 X @ 3.30
A must win for both teams, Allardyce will be prepared but I am sure WH has a point to prove at home, also with the Payet drama going on. Expect Lanzini and Antonio to step up.
Antonio subject to late fitness test, illness. Ayew off to AFCON. 
Payet apparently agreed personal terms with Marseille 30 minutes ago. I quote from yesterday:
Jan 12: "Until he changes his attitude, he is out of the team and he's not going to train with us." Zaha off to AFCON, Benteke and McArthur subject to a late fitness test.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them cancel each other out.
Perhaps U2.5? 
 
Everton - Manchester City
BTTS @ 1.66
Toffees missing Gueye who I rate highly. Schneiderlin back but lacking match fitness and I can see them frail at the back.
City has been very unconvincing at the back between Otamendi, Stones and Zabaleta. There seems to be communication issues with Bravo and I can't see them keeping a clean sheet at Goodison Park.
Perhaps a Lukaku anytime goalscorer?
 
As a United fan, I am staying away from United - Liverpool. I don't see us losing and Mourinho might park the bus to counter. U2.5 is likely. Biggest game of the season and it will be a reserved encounter I reckon.
None of the other games are much of interest.
Open to any other ideas and feedback.
Good luck.

Weekend Jan 12th-16th

PNE V BRIGHTON
Although Brighton face another tough test this weekend, I can't see any reason why they shouldn't come away without a win. The only major change is Connor Goldson coming in for the suspended Lewis Dunk at centre half. Whilst Dunk & Duffy have formed a great partnership & been solid all season, Goldson was exactly the same last season (with Dunk). He can count himself unfortunate this season & will want to prove to the manager that he is good enough to play when needed.
BIRMINGHAM V FOREST
I think Birmingham have been playing well enough under Zola, and have been unlucky not to get better results (against Brighton) and have shown fight and spirit (against Barnsley). Surely they should get their first win against a struggling Forest side, who are in turmoil both on and off the pitch.
BOLTON V SWINDON & WALSALL V SHEFFIELD UTD
Both promotion hopefuls should continue the good work this weekend against average sides.
PLYMOUTH V STEVENAGE.
Although Plymouth are going well in the league, they are prone to the occasional wobble. I am convinced that with the media frenzy surrounding the upcoming replay against Liverpool it will take their focus off the Stevenage game. Plymouth city will be buzzing with cup fever, the fans will talk about nothing else, and the players will be doing their best not to get injured or suspended for such a big occasion (You may disagree citing professionalism, but I have seen it before)
I am happy to oppose Plymouth at odds on here.
WATFORD V MIDDLESBOROUGH
With the passing of Graham "The Turnip" Taylor, there will be a big outpouring of love at Vicarage  Rd this weekend. It's situations like this that can give a team the edge to go and put on a performance to honour the memory of someone dear to them. As a Luton fan , growing up in the 80's, Taylor was the subject of much abuse from the Kenilworth Rd faithful. But like our manager at the time (David Pleat) he went on to achieve better things. I know how much he is loved at Vicarage Rd, and you would hope that the team will be fired up to get a win for him. Their record against Borough is decent, so I'd be tempted, just this once, to back them.
SELECTIONS
TO WIN
BRIGHTON @ 2.05
BIRMINGHAM @ 2.00
BOLTON @ 1.5
SHEFF UTD @ 1.65
WATFORD @ 2.5  (DNB 1.7)
LAY 
PLYMOUTH @ 1.85