KikoCy
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Posts posted by KikoCy
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Unfortunately, England ran away with it, they were just too strong. I feel for the Wallabies fans but at least Cheika is now a thing of the past.
I will be back with my selections for the 2 semis probably this Friday.
Sidenote: Convinced my friend last year (post-France win) to throw money on the Boks to win the whole thing @ 12.00.
Complete drunk decision as it's turned out to be more profitable to simply bet on them to win each game as an accumulation of the previous winnings e.g 1.7 * 1.91 * 1.8 etc etc)
Especially with the lowered odds coming in to the tournament and cashing out the profit and doing that was a better idea... Food for thought.
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Great analysis. Villa HT/FT is 3.90, if you're feeling risky.
I think Leicester is a banker but personally staying away from games post-international break.
- neilovan and StevieDay1983
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What's up guys, long time.
I am looking at:
England by 1-12 @ 2.60
I am most confident in England, ironically. The statistical models has them on +12 but Australia are WC game raisers and are also playing their strongest team. England show up for big games and are in great form.
Wales by 1-12 @ 2.50
Wales are just too good for France yet historically their games are quite close. Nothing from the French has really impressed me and they should have lost that game vs Argentina in the group stages, personally.
All Blacks by 13 or more @ 1.91 (-12.5 Handicap)
I can see Ireland targeting their lineout as it's been their weakest point but ABs have their Whitelock/Retallick pairing back. Also haven't lost their own scrum in forever, it will be a forwards battle and phases while they spread the ball for their wingers to get it over probably. Or an intercept while Ireland are coming forward. New Zealand can withstand phases and target them on the counter too so will be interesting.
Murray and Sexton need to have a good game, but specifically Murray's redistribution at the breakdown in finding players and space (looking at you Stockdale)
Jack Goodhue anytime try scorer @ 3.75 has value, for me
Springboks by 15 or more (-14.5) @ 1.80
Springboks, pretty self explanatory. Demolished Japan in a friendly pre-WC (41-7) and are even stronger now. Le Roux is a liability however, would have preferred to see Willemse given a start here. I also prefer Nkosi over Mapimpi at 11 however Mapimpi is good for rebound tries/width whereas Nkosi is better for counters IMO.
Watching Japan vs Scotland, they gave 150% and I am sure they are gassed. Their bench is also not even close and we (Springboks) have an absolute monster front-row to come on ~60th minute and pin them back.
Once we score, we don't let teams back in so getting a try in the first 10 minutes will be crucial.
Might be a bit biased so take that with a grain of salt.
A 4-fold of the above comes in @ 22.35.
Enjoy the games!
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@Mindfulness great selections mate, I also went with X for both.
I fancy Burnley in the double chance but it's Leicester's first game at home since their chairman passed no? Too many uncertainties and lack of value for me.
Value bets:
Man Utd X2 or EH+1 @ 2.90
Spurs BTTS and win @ 3.20
Bournemouth win @ 2.60 those feeling risky can go for BTTS and win as Bournemouth are allergic to clean sheets
West Ham win @ 2.20
I play superbru (prediction game) so for something different this week I'll list my correct scores instead of bets...
Cardiff City v Brighton CAR 0 - 0 BRI Huddersfield v West Ham HUD 0 - 2 WHM Leicester City v Burnley LEI 2 - 1 BUR Newcastle v Bournemouth NEW 1 - 3 BOU Southampton v Watford SOU 1 - 1 WAT Crystal Palace v Tottenham CRY 1 - 2 TOT Liverpool v Fulham LIV 3 - 0 FUL Chelsea v Everton CHE 3 - 0 EVE Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers ARS 2 - 0 WOL Man. City v Man. United MCI 2 - 2 MUN @Roy The Boy maybe I'll get my missus to throw some predictions down next week...
- Mindfulness and Roy The Boy
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1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:
Love to know where you're getting BTTS @ 1.83 for that game.
It was from 2 days ago on sportingbet, the line dropped to 1.66 last I checked. Sorry about that.
Will probably end up at 1.55 on game day.
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Some nice value this weekend.
Backing Watford and Leicester to win.
Watford look great and Leicester will be fired up after the unfortunate passing of their chairman.
Went for a cheeky -1EH for both separately at (5.75) and (4.00) respectively.
I like the look of Bournemouth BTTS and 1 (5.75) but will probably just opt for a BTTS @ 1.83
Arsenal win @ 3.20 looks promising too despite their set back last week. Emery seems to be getting the most but this is a game where I would wait for the lineups. Guendouzi with Torreira wasn't impressive. Ozil and Ramsey together aren't impressive either.
Liverpool will standardly line up with 4-3-3. Salah and Firmino usually score vs Arsenal too and for once, less doubts in the Liverpool lineup than Arsenal. Waiting to see the midfield makeup. Henderson and Keita doubtful so probably Wijnaldum with Fabinho. Henderson is always a positive in these games.
Just some initial thoughts, will take a better look perhaps tomorrow.
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Some nice prices for wins, specifically Burnley, Watford, Leicester and West Ham.
Taking a break here though...
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CSKA win @ 3.75 is too high in my opinion, throwing some money at that.
Value in Valencia - Juve X @ 3.50 too. BTTS probably safer.
- alani42, StevieDay1983 and Tiffy
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Champions League is back baby!
Liverpool - PSG
I have to take Liverpool given their confidence, attractive football and playing at Anfield. Don't watch too much of PSG but from what I can tell, they haven't really hit top form yet under Tuchel despite getting the points.
Liverpool & BTTS @ 3.25
Inter - Spurs
No Lloris and Alli for Spurs. Over @ 2.5 looks tasty at 2.10. I wonder why. BTTS @ 1.85 too.
BTTS @ 1.85
Monaco - Atleti
I am backing Atletico to win the whole thing and this to be another 0-1 standard win for Simeone's men.
Atletico win & U2.5 @ 3.60
Treble @ 21.65
- StevieDay1983 and hristofor
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I am liking Palace to win at home @ 1.95 and Watford - Spurs BTTS @ 1.80.
Away this weekend so not a lot of reasoning, sorry.
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I really like Atletico's price, might throw some money at them.
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Nigeria - Iceland
This will be an interesting game from a tactical standpoint rather than entertainment. I am biased given I backed a X for Iceland vs Argentina (underdog bias) and despite being lucky to come away with a point, their confidence will be sky-high. They are well drilled, have amazing support from their fans and their players have the quality. They will seek to dominate set-pieces and slow the game down as Nigeria will seek to play at a faster tempo and bomb down the wings.
I am puzzled as to why John Obi Mikel plays as a CAM with Ighalo up front. Ighalo has lost his brief form from 2015/16 and for me, Iheanacho should be starting with Musa also making an appearance, to capitalize on their speed and to perhaps hit Iceland on the break. Unfortunately, Nigeria is notorious for poor finishing too and they will need to create the chances to put them away. Anyone who watched Arsenal or Chelsea can attest to Moses/Iwobi missing easy chances and then scoring worldlies. I call this the 'Cavani syndrome'.
This is a must win for both teams and their next opponents provide problems for both. Croatia look scary and in control. Argentina are wounded and will seek to show face against Nigeria.
Given that it's a must win, not conceding goals is a must and honestly, these teams usually set up this way (Mikel at CAM ffs).
The bookies seem to be on to this and the U2.5 market is at a poor 1.533.
Could this be the tournament's first 0-0?
Bookies are giving 1-1 as the most likely score @ 6, followed by 0-1 and 0-0 @ 7 yet BTTS is 2.05. I would like to see the line of thought behind these conflicting odds.
I like the look of:
Iceland DNB @ 1.83
Iceland win @ 2.9 (price has moved to 2.7 now)
BTTS NO @ 1.75
Correct score FT: 0-1 to Iceland @ 7
Of course, this may go either way so I won't be throwing too much at this.
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Excuse the lack of write-ups, it's been a manic week on my end. Incoming research with some potential value picks as I have yet to throw any money on them yet.
Serbia - Switzerland
I find value in Switzerland win simply due to their organization and resistance to conceding goals.
fivethirtyeight have Switzerland at 42% chance of winning and the odds of 3.1 indicate value in backing Switzerland. Of course, this is football and the stats don't always explain the performances (Croatia, Iceland and many more 'upsets'). This is simply sniping for value.
I reckon this game can go either way and it will be a midfield battle. Serbia's midfield edges Switzerland's, personally, and it would be interesting to see how they match up.
Behrami (MOTM for Switzerland vs Brazil) might be out due to a knock vs Brazil. Zakaria is a capable player of filling that role but starting Behrami is a no-brainer. Should he get a yellow card and the Swiss pick up a result here, he will be available for the second round.
Lots of value in the cards here. I personally took Shaqiri @ 3.4 and Kolarov @ 3.6 to be carded any time. Shaqiri can be petulant and of course, we have the historical tension between both teams. Furthermore, both teams attack predominantly on the right (42% for Switzerland vs Brazil) as Xherdan is their talisman and playmaker.
Tadic vs Rodriguez will be a good battle too but unfortunately Tadic has been erratic over the past two seasons. He came into form during the end of the season and I can see him linking up with SMS in midfield nicely. He also is an excellent distributor of the ball into the box but alas, Mitrovic needs to find his scoring boots again.
Lichsteiner made me some money vs Brazil but I think he might be a bit more careful here.
Matic, Dzemaili and Xhaka also candidates to get booked. Dzemaili had the 'destroyer' role vs Brazil, looking to disrupt passing lanes and get into the players. I can see him getting carded again should he be trusted with this role again. Xhaka has made me a decent penny in EPL, with his yellow cards and another booking tonight would not surprise me, @ 2.6 anytime card.
The U2.5 is 1.53 with some of my mates calling it a 'banker' and I would agree. Both teams have solid defenses and poor attacking strengths. I would prefer waiting for the first goal and then playing the U2.5, provided it comes in the first half which is also unlikely.
The average height of the Serbs could very well see them score from a set piece and negate Switzerland.
I like the look of HT X @ 1.83 and @betcatalog's footballing nous speaks for itself; tailing this.
This game can go either way and I will be scrutinizing it mainly due to the score predictor game I am playing where I am currently top 500 in the world and it's games like these that separate the boys from men.
Brazil - Costa Rica
Not a lot of value in this game for me so this write up will be short.
I am secretly hoping Neymar doesn't play as predicted due to injury, allowing Coutinho to slot into his role on LW where he thrives for me. He can draw quite a few fouls here and Gamboa and Acosta will have a handful to deal with. Acosta anytime booking @ 2.9 is decent. Looking at the odds, Watson @ 1.8 to be booked is one of the lowest prices I've come across. Finally, Casemiro to be booked is 2.5. This came through last game and he might pick up a card to miss the final game as Brazil should wrap this up in a tidy fashion. Casemiro also made me a lot of money in CL with his tendency to pick up cards but this would depend on Costa Rica possession and as such I may abstain from this.
For me, Brazil are winning this 2-0 with Neymar and perhaps more without him. Their sheer reliance on him is annoying as it's one dimensional and they don't move the ball quick enough. Belgium have the same problem with Hazard.
No value in EH markets, HT markets or even the over/under as anything could happen but I see Costa Rica parking the bus and Brazil killing off the game between 45-60th minute.
- AlexD, betcatalog and StevieDay1983
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Hi all, as you can imagine I haven't had a lot of time to post write ups.
For Argentina - Croatia, bets that stand out to me:
Ever Banega anytime card @ 2.4
HT X @ 1.95
Croatia +1 @ 1.727
Croatia X @ 3
BTTS is also promising @ 2.00
I co-sign the excellent, detailed analysis above.
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7 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Annoyed by that game. The amount of clear cut chances that were snatched at or not converted was unreal. On another day that could have been over 3.5 or even 4.5 goals let alone 2.5 goals. As if Portugal hadn't destroyed my life enough already by knocking us out of the semi-finals at Euro 2016!
It's the Portugal way.
Play badly against teams worse than them and absorb their attack. Play well against equal/better teams and counter really well.
Guedes needs to be benched for Andre Silva I reckon. Guerreiro had a shocker too.
Portugal will pull a Euro 2016 again but probably only reach 1/4s this time.
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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:
The way this game has started this could be 3-3 by half-time!
Ah I am glad it was an early goal to get it out of the way.
My 12/1 treble is still alive at least!
Portugal - To Win Either 1-0 - 2-0 @ 3.300
Uruguay 2 - 0 @ 1.775 (Anytime Correct Score - 90 Mins)
Spain - To Win Either 1-0 - 2-0 - 3-0 @ 2.050Also have a double of both Spain and Uruguay to win to nil, holding thumbs...
Good luck Stevie!
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Portugal - Morocco
HT/FT: X/1 @ 4.2
Portugal stutter against inferior teams and Morocco are solid defensively. I can see Portugal scoring in the 2nd half and holding on to the lead.
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Colombia - Japan
I see this ending as a 2-0 for Colombia. Even with James out, they have too much pace and power to attack the flanks and whip in crosses to Falcao who is deadly in the air.
Colombia -1EH @ 3.10
Value in the win to nil too.
Poland - Senegal
Glik out for the Polish, who is influential in the organization of defence. I can see the Senegalese speed merchants (Mane, Keita) cutting through with diagonal lines. Poland may seek to dominate midfield but will come up against a sturdy Senegal midfield and will seek to counter through Jakub and Lewa. Koulibaly is no pushover though and the set pieces will be interesting to watch too. Will Milik start against his teammate from Napoli?
BTTS @ 2.20 for me; @StevieDay1983 I am in agreement with your picks today!
I see this as a 1-1 or 1-2 depending. Will probably go for a 1-1 in the predictor games I play but a Senegal victory would not surprise me at all. May change it to 1-2 later on if lineups seem favourable.
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@StevieDay1983, I am tailing your BTTS, I love it and I think it's a must win for Egypt to qualify and Russia will seek a draw. If Egypt get the first goal, the Russians will need to come out and play for the draw, leaving them open to the Egyptian counters.
You covered everything in your write up and I think this is the game that Russia will be found out. My only concern is the cold temperatures for the Egyptians but they are professionals and should tidy it up.
For what it's worth, I also put a small stake on BTTS and Egypt @ 9.00.
edit: the more I look at this game, the less optimistic I am in Egypt winning. I will stick to BTTS. Perhaps a X.
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Joshua Kimmich to be carded anytime @ 4.1 (BetVictor)
The odds on these have gone down but essentially, Bayern should wrap this up and he is one card away from suspension.
If the game is done and dusted, he is back for the QFs.
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15 hours ago, iBetting said:
Champions League
Porto/Liverpool O 2.5 -127
Absolute gift. I was expecting over 3 ~ -170. Wish Porto had Danilo but I don't see how this game could possibly stay under 3. They are going to go down 1-0 early and scramble from there because they can't go to Anfield down big. I like this so much that I now think the books know something I don't. They can have my money if that's the case. I would have played this at over 3.5 so I have to take it at 2.5.
You're obviously pitching a service or something here despite plagiarising this analysis from here -
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3 hours ago, Tiffy said:
You're pretty much thinking along the same lines as me. Although the one change for me may be to put SOU V LIV as BTTS. The new signings for the Saints look prettty decent and they may start picking points up soon. Liverpool could win it though, but I am finding goals better than results at the moment.
Indeed! I see BTTS as likely too, given Liverpool's poor clean sheet record away from home.
Now to consider which one of these bets will go balls up...
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Provisionally, I would come back to add odds and reasoning once I have done some research.
Spurs - Arsenal: BTTS & O2.5
Soton - Liverpool: 2
Stoke - Brighton: U2.5
Swansea - Burnley: U2.5
West Ham - Watford: BTTS
Newcastle - United: BTTS NO or 2 & U2.5
Could see Bournemouth beating Huddersfield and the odds are nice @ 2.30 odd
- Tiffy and StevieDay1983
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Liking:
Everton win @ 2.25
West Ham win @ 2.00
Leicester win @ 1.80
On the road so won't have much time for analysis.
- StevieDay1983 and Tiffy
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Rugby World Cup 2019
in Rugby Union Predictions
Posted
For sure, you bring up some valid points yet the spread is almost always covered in rugby so it really depends!