erny86

Funny how dropping odds don't indicate anything anymore. Jarry played better than expected though, a massive finish to the second set, saving three set points in a row.
Federico Delbonis to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.73 with Paddy Power
Vesely is a mess at the moment. I thought that he would bounce back after Auckland, but no, he's still playing brainlessly. He's going to win again at some point, but I certainly hope that it won't be against Delbonis, who's played some really good matches last week, losing only against the tremendously in-form Bedene in three. The Argentinian also has a good record in this event. Vesely leads the H2H record 2-1, but it should be noted that both wins came in Czech Challengers, so there's that.

Kvitova to win WTA Doha 13 at Bet Victor
Kvitova was amazing in Saint Petersburg. She showed her best shape even she was a bit ill. She didn't much of a chance to in form Mladenovic and Georges. Now the field is way much stronger, but I see only Kerber as a real treath and we all know that the German is not so consistent, specially after pretty stong Grand slam tournament. Svitolina also is very strong at such events, but she disapointed at AO. In her draw are out of shape Radwanska and Svitolina and in the semis she could face the winner of Kerber - Wozniacki.

De Schapper wins by WO! Seems Vatulin was more injured by him....

Sureshkumar - Petrovic 7.17 Pinnacle
Challenger Chennai
Sureshkumar is a local lad, who beat Diez this season on clay. Now he is up against Petrovic, a dude, who often losses from big odds. Sureshkumar is 19-years old guy, it will be a grand slam final for him here.
 
Bourgue - Gombos 2.62 Pinnacle
Challenger Cherboug
Bourgue is the last year winner here. He didn't start very strong the season on indoor hard, but lost from in form Halys and Berankis. He scored nice win over Fritz and De Greef at AO. Gombos is also not in the best shape of his life. The direct H2H is 3:0 for Bourgue, including win here last season.
 
 

Oh man. At least Osaka won to move further up the rankings race (and she won't be without a chance in the next round either).
Mathias Bourgue to beat Norbert Gombos at 2.62 with William Hill
Win or lose, these odds are worth it. @ogii55 has summed it all up nicely and I can't find one reason for this not to be 50/50 at the very least. Gombos has been nothing special for a very long time now and Bourgue is bound to fight hard in home condition. I realize that I said this yesterday about Klizan and then he gave up the second set in a very childish fashion, but I hope that Bourgue won't be as mental as Klizan when defending a title.
Angelique Kerber to win WTA Doha at 10.00 with Bet365
I was thinking long and hard about this, but I think it's worth chancing at odds this long. The one thing that speaks against Kerber is that she's never done well in Doha, but, on the other hand, you can find excuses for her not performing well in the previous seasons. And, well, she has been the best player so far in 2018 by a decent margin imo, she deserved to win the AO even, but ran out of steam against Halep in an epic match. Virtually every single player in the draw has some problems to deal with, but Kerber I can trust even with a full stake. Backing her to win the quarter is a good alternative if you want something safer. I can see plenty of people backing Wozniacki, but I don't know, I think she's the most overrated player on the tour at the moment. She'll have a great record against all those top20+ players, but anyone with a brain and some power can beat her. Funnily enough, that's actually the story of her record in Doha. 3-6 1-6 against Azarenka in 2015, 5-7 7-5 6-3 against Vesnina in 2016, 3-6 4-6 against Pliskova in 2017.

Martin Klizan to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.81 with Unibet
Rotterdam basically equals Klizan. I'll never forget his massive win here back in 2016 and, well, it really is the one tournament in which he's guaranteed to work hard for every single point. Two good wins in the qualifying already, Lopez hasn't done much so far in 2018, yes, a play on Klizan does indeed seem to be in order.
Ying-Ying Duan (-3.5) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.84 with Unibet
I'm not sure what's up with Jabeur, but she's having a horror start to the year. The only set she's won came against Sara Tomic and she retired from her most recent match. I guess that crazy things can happen in the WTA, but Duan should be strong after beating Zvonareva and Krejcikova in the quallies. 

1 PICK FOR ATP SOFIA:

BASIC-COPIL OVER 22 GAMES @ 1.57 pinnacle
Two good indoor fast surface players, Copil is probably a slight favorite but expect a close match. "Over" pick.



 

Buenos Aires, New York, Rotterdam (with Federer!), WTA Doha + various Challengers and ITF events 

Great call on Mousley @ogii55!

Krawietz - Fucsovcs 6.00 at Sporting bet
 
Fucsovs didn't play well yesterday against an opponent, that he must easily beat. He was set and a break down in the second, but managed to get back. Krawietz is playing one of his best tennis so far. He is playing only on indoor hard this season. The guy already stunned three opponents with good tennis and had a total of 5 wins in a row. I respect a lot tennis players who can win a tiebreak in the decider. Krawietz did it twite and it was pretty much convinsing.
 
Mousley - Granollers 5 at Bet victor
Mously is doing pretty well in the tournament. He beat King and Robert pretty easy. The Australian is serving nice and is capable to put some pressure over Granollers, who is showing some signs of tireness. He played 16 matches on single and 10 on doubles since the start of the season. This is a lot. Nice odds

1 PICK FOR ATP MONTPELLIER:

MAHUT-TSONGA OVER 21 GAMES @ 1.67 pinnacle
Mahut is a very good indoors player with big serve + 1st match for Tsonga after the Australian Open, so he should not be at his best. I don't expect an easy win for Tsonga, in any case.

 

Back to normal tournaments! 

I will not say much about this match, I think Lille has to give weight to the championship to ensure her stay in the big league, Strasbourg is a good team and can qualify
RACING STRASBOURG vs OSC LILLE @@ WIN RACING STRASBOURG, odds 2.33

No words. A brilliant match.

Maybe it's me getting old, but I'm placing a 3pts bet on Hsieh at 8.70 with Marathonbet now. I didn't like the potential payouts at 4.00-5.00, but I don't mind them now. Unless Kerber retires in the first set, it will be a nice clean profit.

Marta Kostyuk/Elina Svitolina Under 16.5 games at 2.40 Unibet, Under 17.5 games Bet365

Easiest money tonight. Elina will run her race here and won't let the 15 year old get close to breaking her serve. We're talking about oceans of difference between these two right now. Marta can make herself ready to play the junior tournament next week after a successful proweek. Simply, Marta doesn't stand a chance here.

1-2 for the bets above, Sevastova started to play way too late for it to matter and Pliskova was on song from shot one unfortunately.
I'll be throwing in one more bet for today, the rest are for tomorrow.
P.Gojowczyk/A.Zverev - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with 10Bet
Looking at the conditions and everything, Gojowczyk could well trouble Zverev even more than Fabbiano. He's got a reasonable record against big opposition in terms of taking sets, he's in a very good form, and Zverev had problems with heat previously. Given how average Zverev has been so far in 2018, I'm not sure why this is priced above evens, 1.80 looks more like it.
N.Basilashvili/K.Edmund - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Edmund has been quite impressive so far, but Basilashvili should be closer to Anderson than to Istomin honestly, so I expect a nice contest with each player taking at least a set. Basilashvili is a talented shotmaker that should be able to stay in rallies even if Edmund gets a nice forehand or two in, while it's also important to note that both players are known chokers, which should play into this bet. Should be a cracker anyways.
Alize Cornet (+3.5) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.92 with Marathonbet
I just have to go against Mertens this time around, as much as I'm happy that she's won me quite a few bets recently. Cornet was great against Goerges, first career win in that match-up, while Mertens had the edge against Gavrilova only due to the mental factor. That shouldn't come into play here, as Cornet is one of the more resilient players when in form, and she should be able to keep Mertens on the back foot without giving her a lot of options.
Andrey Rublev (+5) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.92 with Marathonbet
Contrasting forms, unless Rublev fails in terms of fitness, he should be a good match for Dimitrov. The big shots have been falling in for him in every single match so far and Dimitrov doesn't really have what it takes to defend against them imo.

I will be on over 29.5 games @ 1.9 in the game between Struff and Federer tomorrow.Struff was serving nice in the last round and i for one,think that we are bound to see at least one tie break here.Struff is talented enough to take a set off Roger and given the surprises we've seen so far i am more than happy to giv this bet a go @ odds that generous.Federer to win but not in straightforward fashion.
over 29.5 games @ 1.90
over 3.5 sets @ 3.50
both with bet365

I might have some for the later sessions as well, but I'll have to think things through first.
Anastasija Sevastova (+4) to beat Maria Sharapova at 1.83 with Marathonbet
Maria Sharapova looked really average in the first round. She faced a slightly tricky opponent, but I expected her to get a crushing victory. That didn't happen and things aren't going to get any easier here. Sevastova played two good matches against Sharapova last year and she should give her a good test once again, especially if Sharapova doesn't up her game. This isn't the Sharapova of old - and that's why the prices and lines look a bit off to me.
M.Fucsovics/S.Querrey - Over 37 games at 1.84 with Marathonbet
This looks like a fairly low line to me given that both can serve really well and that they are going to play on an outside court, which means that the conditions should be very fast. Querrey had a good win over Lopez, but, after watching it from the mid-point, it was more about the Spaniard not being up to the task than about Querrey being super impressive. Fucsovics is a talented lad himself, big serve and all that jazz. Should be tight more often than not.
Beatriz Haddad Maia (+6.5) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.76 with Unibet
I saw the entire Pliskova-Cepede match and let me tell you, Pliskova was sluggish as hell. She's still a top 10 player and she can win this 6-2 6-2 if she's on song, of course, but Haddad Maia serves and moves well, so I can see her drawing plenty of errors from the Czech, who doesn't take these first round matches incredibly seriously all the time.

Surprised by how well McDonald did, real class. Will have a few picks shortly.

Meh.
For Wednesday:
Elise Mertens to beat Daria Gavrilova at 1.95 with Unibet
Elise Mertens is 8-1 so far in this season, with that record including one win over Gavrilova (the sole loss came against Kerber). She's on a tremendous streak and she started her AO run with a very easy win, so she doesn't seem to be tired after that long week in Hobart. Gavrilova will have the home advantage on her side and that could work in her favour, but I'd have Mertens around 1.70 here honestly. She's just the better player in the better form.
Kaia Kanepi (-3.5) to beat Monica Puig at 1.83 with Bet365
Puig somehow managed to get past Stosur after the Australian choked, which was kinda predictable given her record in Aussie events, but Kanepi should be way too strong honestly. She's back with a vengeance after a long injury break, 6-1 in this season, losing only against Pliskova - and she was very competitive even in that match. Puig can have patches of brilliancy, but Kanepi is much more solid and accurate, so she should take this in the end. Controlled aggression has always been better than senseless one.
Belinda Bencic (-4.5) to beat Luksika Kumkhum at 1.80 with Bet365
Yep, I'm going to jump on the Belinda bandwagon after seeing her against Venus. Kumkhum has a strange habit of getting big wins out of nowhere in Australia, she even managed to beat Kvitova here a couple of years ago, but I think that overwhelming chances are that she won't have enough to challenge Bencic, who's learned to avoid silly mistakes during her injury break. If Bencic is on song, this could be over very quickly.

The problem is that McDonald doesn't have a reliable serve, so he'll have to win nearly all the points the hard way. He's a better HC player than Novak and he's got an incredibly good attitude, but he's got exactly zero experience and I therefore wouldn't rule out a 6-1/6-0 set. Kinda looks like 50/50 to me whether it's going to be a complete rout or not, I'm slightly leaning to Dimitrov crushing Mackie, but the odds you have are well above evens, so they look fine from where I'm sitting. I have zero trust in McDonald at this level right now, however.

Carla Suárez Navarro to beat Timea Babos at 1.83 with Paddypower
Carla has a nice 3-0 record in this matchup beating Timea at all 3 of the different surfaces. I don't see Timeas last win as something to put to mutch attention at. She probably didn't do mutch except playing a solid enough match and let Coco do the rest with hitting wild forehands and serving awful since I can't think of any other way the match went because I don't see Timea outhitting Coco. The way I see it Timea without some help is otherwise not good enough to outclass a top 10 opponent. Carla can win this match by being solid from the baseline which is exactly what she built her game on the last few years. Even if Carla beat Timea 3 times when she was a top 10-20 player I think she can do it again.
Anett Kontaveit to beat (-4.5) Mona Barthel at 2.10 with Paddypower
Sometimes Paddy can offer way to big prices on some handicaps like this one. Bet365 is just at 1.90 on the same handicap. Mona has opened the season with back-to-back loses in straight sets by being outclassed twice by Varvara Lepchenko in Auckland and Hobart, and Mona is more of a clay specialist since all her 4 titles except Hobart 2012 have come on slow surfaces so I doubt the courts in Melbourne suits her game. If Kontaveit plays to her normal standard she can win this with a few games to spare. Anyway the 2.10 offered by Paddy is what makes me consider this. No special bet unless I get over evens which I have.

Marta Kostyuk, how good is this 15 year old? She's although quite lucky to have come through in straight sets. She's even supported by Ivan Ljubicic and Fed. To get to third round at 15 years old is as good as Martina Hingis was at 15 years old as she was the last 15 year old to reach third round. But she'll be out next round most likely since it's gonna be Elina Svitolina or Katerina Siniakova. But credit to her for beating Shuai Peng and winning three matches in 3 sets in the qualies. Very strong.

Olivia Rogowska to beat Marta Kostyuk at 2.50 livebet with bet365 
Watching Marta Kostyuk play right now. She's a great ballstriker. Not mutch value in backing her to win before the match. Should have backed her before her last match against Shuai Peng but I didn't see that coming. Knowing more about her now. She's still 15 and turns 16 this summer. Ranked as junior no.2 and WTA ranking 521 with career high 491 last season and she's already won an ITF title beating 5 top 400 players in straight sets. This junior girl is coming strong, she'll be someone to watch out for in the future if she continue developing like this. She's going skyhigh in the rankings compared to american Whitney Osuigwe who is junior no.1 but still outside the WTA 1000 rankings.
She's just beaten Shuai Peng in straight sets but she may come as a bit to heavy favourite in this match.