erny86

1 PICK FOR WTA INDIAN WELLS MATCH TODAY:

TSURENKO-4 GAMES OVER ARRUABARRENA @ 1.6 pinnacle
Tsurenko winning a tournament last week, and she was in great form there. The head-to-head shows 3 easy wins for Tsurenko.

 

I am sort of away this week and doing any sort of research really is a pain, so I don't want to overdo things. At first glance, nothing really stands out honestly, it's a tight card. I am going to go for this one in the men's, however.
Daniil Medvedev to beat Steve Johnson at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Honestly, I think Medvedev should be the favourite here. He's still young and this fact comes with some poor matches here and there, but he hasn't done much wrong so far in this season apart from losing against Matosevic in his first match of the year and the implosion against Gasquet. Johnson, on the other hand, has only beaten struggling or truly average players. The H2H also stands at 2-0 in Medvedev's favour and one of those wins came in the USA, so a repeat could easily be on the cards. I'd take everything above 1.80.

Czech whats your selection for women's first day? looks like a minefield! However, that does represent some value to be had.

Errani played very strong in the final. Bondarenko didn't have chances, even if she was up 5:1, and as I remember it wasn't two BP, but 6 in the sixth game of the first set. I was for Bondarenko in this match
Kratzer - Kozlova 3.5 Bet365
Just a week ago Kozlova was badly injured during her match with Rodionova. She couldn't finish it. I am pretty sure she missed few days of training. Kateryna lost in the first round of Q in the last two seasons at IW so she will not have points to defend. Kratzer is capable to stun big names. She made that last year. During 2018 she played close matches with Hsieh and Wickmayer, but lost them. I can't see odds to be more than 3 for Kratzer, who will play her very first IW.
Xia - Wu 5.42 Pinnacle
Xia already stunned three favorites. He gave a total of 6 BP chances to his oponents. His serve is solide and he is capable to stun Di Wu, who didn't look great so far during the season. Still Di Wu is a favorite (H2H 1:0 for Wu), but the odds aren't right. Maybe they mustbe close to 4.00 for Xia.
 

One thread for two weeks! 

Rogerio Dutra Silva to beat Nicolas Kicker at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Kicker might be the slightly better player of the two, but I'm going to go against him at evens here. First, the H2H stands at 2-0 for Dutra Silva. Second, this match will be played in Brazil, so Dutra Silva should have a lot of support. That wouldn't be incredibly important on its own, but Kicker is a player that can go missing mentally when things start going against him, so I can definitely see him choking given the stage and occasion. As far as I'm concerned, Dutra Silva should be a small fav here.

He wasn't pathetic against Roger, he was legitimately ill, he wanted to withdraw before the match.

Thanks m8 for Hazawa!!!!! Fantastic!!!!!!!!

Rodionova - Kozlova 3.6 Pinnacle
Rodionova played great last week. She just didn't have luck against Zhang. Her form is going up. Kozlova has her peak in Taipei. She had a pretty close match with Barthel. The value is here. Not more then 2.75 for Riduibiva for that match
Moutet - Pella 3.5 Pinnacle
Moutet already scored two wins here at the Q. He is pretty strong on clay. The dude is a fighter. Pella was stunned last week. He is still trying to find his rhythm.
Hazawa - Kwon 9.06 Pinnacle
Hazawa is former Top 40 junior player. He scored some stunning wins last year on hard. Now he is in home tournament. Kwon is 1/5 this season. He reached the final in 2017, but his form is questionabe. He lost in Davis Cup from Quereshi, who is not playing anymore on singles. Nice odds 
Brengle - Gavrilova 2.3 Tipco
Brengle is coming from a tournament title, where she destroyed everybody. She has enough time to recover and to attack the next big event. Gavrilova had some problems in Fedcup matches loosing twice against opponents, that must be a pretty easy target for her.
Ahn - Townsend 2.42 Pinnacle
 
Townsend is in a hole. She lost by outsiders in her last two matches. On the other hand Ahn is on a rise. She dosed her tournaments and started pretty well in Australia with wins over players like Puig and Larson. She is fresher.
Albot (+1.5 sets) - Anderson 2.61 Pinnacle
 
Anderson won the title week ago with 4 out of 4 wins in three sets. Albot beat Isner in 3 sets and lost from him and from Nishikori also in three sets. 
 
 
 

Moutet hasn't won any Q matches in Sao Paulo.

Can't really argue with any of that Stevie apart from me being 'delighted' about Rangers winning anything. When these 2 play each other I want them both to get beat, 7 red cards, 9 broken legs and a massive asteroid to hit the stadium 
Seriously though, this has 0-0 written all over it.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 is a great price.

Plymouth vs Bradford
This match is a tale of two teams when it comes to form. Plymouth have won their last 5 league games on the bounce. The Bantams have lost 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches. Their form could not be much more polarised but, incredibly, they sit right next to each other in the League One table in 7th and 8th respectively.
Derek Adams has turned things around for his side. Their season started horrendously and it looked like they were facing a return to League Two. It appears that Adams has learned from mistakes and adapted to the opposition this season. The sign of a very effective manager. Stuart McCall was sacked as Bradford manager earlier this year and the experienced Simon Grayson was appointed their gaffer this month. If any manager knows League One, it's Grayson. He has already guided Blackpool, Leeds, Huddersfield, and Preston to the Championship from the division.
It might still be too soon to see any real change in Bradford's play through Grayson's management. I am sure he'll be a fantastic appointment in the long term. However, the club can't buy a win right now so improvement might take months rather than weeks. Plymouth are flying right now and have confidence in front of goal. I am going to back a Plymouth victory but think Bradford will put in a decent show. Perhaps both teams to score is worth backing despite the visitors' recent form.
Plymouth to win @ 2.50 with William Hill
BTTS @ 1.70 with SunBets

Did you watch her after winning AO two years ago? She played in Doha and lost in two sets in the very first round. She's got the consistency problem.
I am thinking to try the final for Kasatkina. She already twice returned in matches after saving match points. Svitolina sometimes is capable to anger herself. This could harm her a lot. The problem is that the Ukraininan has killer instincts in the finals with amazing record in tournaments. Also she will be fresher physically and mentally. On the other hand it's clear that Pliskova and Kerber weren't at their best. While Konta and Muguruza played pretty well in the first two sets, before the missed match points destroyed their game.
Maybe odds around 4 has some value. What do you think?
 
 

Metkic/Peya vs Verdasco Marrero 2.25 Paddy
BOth teams met last week. Ver/Marr won by extremly close 10:8 in the third (54:54 points for the entire match). Now Verdasco will play a tough match earlier the same evening against Fognini. Metkic and Peya are on fire. They beat the finalists from last week. I think Met/Pey must be slight favorites here. 2.25 is pretty nice, as well.
 
 

Karen Khachanov (+2.5) to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.77 with Marathonbet
I am a bit afraid that Khachanov is going to choke given that he's up against a big name, but, quality-wise, he has what it takes to beat Berdych, who could've easily lost in the previous two rounds. Maybe he's still feeling the illness from last week, but he's yet to play a good match in Marseille, while Khachanov is 6-0 in sets against very decent opposition. Last year, Khachanov beat an out-of-sorts Berdych in the French Open - and this could be similar.

Puetz - Thompson 2.55 Pinnacle
I am not sure what Puetz is doing on such a low level tournaments. He is 30 and specially on indoor is very classy. In his last match he destroyed Kamke. The dude is in great shape. Same for Thompson, but he has a pretty long journey. It will be his 12th match in 11 days. Not sure if he is capable to handle that.

Kasatkina - Muguruza 3.36 Pinnacle
Kasatkina already took three valuable scalps, Agnieshka, Konta and Vesnina. She is improving with each match. Against Agnieshka, she has big problems with her first serve. Muguruza's first match here against Bellis was pretty close. She beat Garcia more on mental level (beat her previous week as well). Both met earlyer last season and Muguriza won with a tiebreak in the third, where Kasatkina missed a matchball. Still Muguruza is a favorite here, but not with such big odds for Kasatkina. Maybe 2.75 would be more reasonable.

Huh, Ellis is the man this week!
Fabio Fognini to beat Aljaz Bedene at 2.00 with Bet365
At 2.00, I have to have a play here, as I think that Fognini will find a way. Better player, massive H2H, seems to care. The 8-0 between the two says a lot imo. I respect Bedene's form, but I wouldn't have Fognini above 1.72 here.

The good run continues this week. Here are two props from Rancho Santa Fe
Doi - Vickery 3.35 Bet 365
The last time Doi won two matches in a row n such a convincing fashion was many months ago. She is pretty good tennis player and maybe this will be the tournament, where she could be back. Earlier this month Vickery suffered an injury. Her season so far is not so nice. I expect for her to have real difficulties here. She beat two rounds, but against very weak opponents. Now she will meet someone who is showing good tennis. I wouldn't give more than 2.50 to Doi for this match.
Muhammad - Duval 2.13 Pinnacle
 
Duval made an impressive run last season. Her biggest problem are the injuries. So far this season she is 4:3, which is not so nice. In the first round Duval overcame Vania King, but was overplayed during the match, according the stats. It's not so nice showing for Duval. Muhammad is flying now after strong last week. She is heading for another final with two wins over very game rivals. I fancy Asia here as the favorite.
 
 

Three more props for today
Buzarnescu/Bara vs Blinkova Jurak 2.30 Unibet
Buzarnesko was demolished on singles by AVU, but she had her chances at the beginning of the match. Then she gave up in the second. The Romanian double knows very well each other, while Blinkova and Jurak are together for the first time. Jurak isn't in her best shape. Blinkova can hit big serves, but she pretty easy lost her nerves.
 
Jarry - Ramos 3.00 bet365
Jarry is playing great at the moment. He is seving like a monster. He scored nice win over GGL and a good presentation here will help him to make a personal ranking best. Ramos didn't play like a Top 20 star. He has problems with stamina in the second and third set. 
 
Muhammad - Jang Su Jeong 2.37 bet365
Muhammad finally showed her class in her previous tournament, where she reached the final. She loves the surface and reached semifinal here in 2016. Jang Su Jeong is a big enigma. She is 3/5 this season and didn't impress with the results. 
 
 
 

4pts E.Vesnina to beat J.Ostapenko 11/8 Bet365
1pt E.Vesnina to win 2-0 3/1 Ladbrokes
It feels like Ostapenko is just on a big strop at the moment. Maybe her major win came too soon but she seems to be struggling at the moment and doesn't have the attitude and concentration to get back into her groove. The "unknown" factor has gone and she has to work harder to hit the lines.
Vesnina has the experience on her side here and has points to protect and I fancy her to win this one. I'm also taking a punt on the 2-0 victory based soley on Ostapenko's attitude when she's down.
 

Skugor - Bublik 2.40 Unibet
 
The odds dropped from 2.5. Skugor showed very nice form in the Q, beating Laaskonen and Polanski very convinsing. Bublik is still an enigma. He's got huge mentality problem, otherwise he could reach Top 50. The dude is capable to self destroy himself. Skugor is serving pretty nice.
 

5pts C. Garcia to beat E.Makarova 3/5 Betfair
2.5pts C. Garcia to win 2-0 7/5 888Sport
Garcia is in such good form right now. She is serving really well. If you look at her last few tournaments she has only lost to players such as Muguruza, Keys, Cornet, Halep etc etc 
Makarova beat her back in 2013 and 2014 but the last meeting, last year, Garcia won in straight sets 7-6 6-4 and although I expect it to be quite a tight match, I reckon we could see a similar kind of scoreline.

When did you last see Wawrinka at 1.51 against a top 200 player? 

Some nice picks from today. Let's hope the week will kick of nicer than Monday:
 
Katie Boulter - Taylor Townsend 3.5 Bet 365
The season for Townsend started awful. She is 1/3 so far and in her last match was beaten convinsingly by Teichman. Probably she got some problems, because she missed a lot of tournaments or probably her coaches were thinking that she need special trainings. Boulter is improving a lot and she already scored nice wins this season against Abanda and Anderson. I think the match is pretty close. Katie is former Top 10 among juniors and is capable to make big break this season (she is enjoying her career best now after strong 2017)
 
Paquet - Von Deichman 2.78 Pinnacle
Paquet finally started to find her form. She reached QF and SF in her last two tournaments on indoor beating top opponent like Perrin. Von Deichman was beaten already three times this season by outsiders. She had struggled against far weaker opponents as Udvardy. Pretty close match with nice odds.
 
Saez Larra - Muchova 2.30 
 
Not big difference between them in rankings, but Saez Larra showed nice form in Scotland in her previous tournament reaching the SF and beating three favorites. Muchova is nothing special and indoor is not her best surface. I can't see her favorite.
 
Horanski - Ignatik 3.23 Betonline
Horanski played only on indoor this season and he already scored three wins here in the Q, beating Jahn and Vanni in two sets. Ignatik played against better oponents and lost, but he is a guy, who either is on top form, or can't pass first or second round in the tournaments.
 
Lacko - Gojowcik 2.34 Pinnacle
I missed the earlier odds that were around 2.5, but this is still ok. Lacko showed pretty nice form in Sofia with his great serve, only to lost in a close match against in top form Kovalik. Gojowcik injured his foot against Mannarino and I am not sure if he will be able to recover so fast.
 
Arrends/Middlekoop vs Beneteau/Mahut 2.8 Pinnacle
Arrends and Middlekoop are in great form so far. Middlekoop won ATP Sofia's doubles. On the other hand both Beneteau Mahut will enter the singles event here so they will need double focus to be on 100% here to defend their title from last year. Mahut played a total of 7 matches last week, after winning doubles in Rotherdam. Benetau is 0/1 on doubles this season.
 
Dzumhur/Sanchic vs Megrea/Nestor 2.47
Megrea and NEstor are miles away from their best days. Megrea is 1/4 and NEstor is 2/6 this season. Dzumhur and Sanchic teamed up pretty well last season. They reached the final at ATP Moscow (indoor) stunning three favorites. Sanchic played three finals on Challenger level this season,