erny86

Kukushkin vs Anderson - ATP Madrid
this could be an awkward match for Anderson against a  very in form Kukushkin and I 'll be backing the Kazakh -1.5 sets @ 6.67 with Pinnacle with a saver +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Paddy Power.
good luck all. 
Just a tie break away from a tasty winner - Kuku even had a BP @ 4-4 in the 2nd set 

thoughts on these plays guys?
Kohlscriebier -125
- Kohlschreiber recorded a comfortable 6-4/6-4 victory against an out-of-form Bautista Agut in Munich last week and there's no reason to expect a different result on Wednesday morning.   - Bautista Agut was pushed to the brink by Donaldson on Tuesday, an opponent with zero game on clay.   - Kohlschreiber sailed through his opener against Sugita 6-4/6-3 and he's playing with confidence, 5 wins on clay in the past 10 days, all coming in straight sets   - Bautista Agut prefers a quicker, lower bouncing ball coming onto his racket as he doesn't generate his own pace and while the altitude helps with the ball speed he hasn't beaten any elite clay courters at this event, destroyed by Djokovic & Nishikori in recent seasons.   - Kohlschreiber showed the stronger clay court prowess in his victory last week, yet the oddsmakers haven't adjusted the line. Take advantage of this mistake. Kohlschreiber Moneyline Nadal Under 17.5 games +100
- Monfils showcased his lack of fitness & match practice during his opener and he now faces Nadal, the best clay court player ever   - Nadal has butchered Monfils on the clay multiple times (Under 17.5 Games 4-1 in their 5 meetings on the dirt - only meeting that went Over was Nadal not at his best).   - Monfils game is based on athleticism and defense but his movement and energy are non-existent so far in his return from injury   - Madrid has been one of Nadal's less successful clay court tournaments (only 5 titles!) but his defeats have come against Djokovic, Murray (x2) Verdasco & Federer. He's still capable of hammering inferior opponents   - Nadal is playing at a peak level on clay right now, expect a demolition of an unfit opponent. Under 17.5 Games Schwartzman -250
Garcia -138
Wozniacki -163
Sharapova O21.5 games -110
This matchup has all the signs of creating a match full of intensity and drama   - Both players are elite clay courters on their day and they went the distance in Stuttgart last year (Mladenovic won 3-6/7-5/6-4).   - Their two previous meetings have both gone over this number but the clay is an important factor in this matchup   - Both players are tall with a sizable wingspan, meaning they can create angles and also retrieve more balls in defensive positions, making it harder for either player to dominate for long periods of a match.   - Both players have had two matches to warm to these conditions, expect both to be in full rhythm   - I don't trust either player to close out this match in straight sets, expect a deciding third set to cash the Over comfortably. Over 21.5 Games Stephens +100

Caroline Garcia to beat Julia Goerges at 1.80 with Paddy Power
Karolina Pliskova to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.80 with William Hill
Two big hitters against two big hitters, but I believe that Garcia and Pliskova have a bit more finesse on clay than their opponents. You may laugh at me saying that Pliskova has more finesse than someone else, but yeah, in comparison to Stephens, definitely. Meanwhile, Goerges is just shambolic all the time and hasn't looked great since that painful loss in Charleston.

Well, phew.

David Goffin to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 2.06 with Pinnaclesports
David has the edge over RBA these days. He's being more solid in bigger tournaments hence why his ranking is higher and he always have had a bigger playing ability so it explains why he goes further in the bigger tournaments. Now we get evens on David to win this, can anyone explain why he is not fav.
Grigor Dimitrov to beat (-1.5 sets) Philipp Kohlschreiber at 2.79 with Pinnaclesports
Just saying that Philipp usually does his best when he is the underdog but he lost in Madrid to Grigor in straight sets last season and I can see the same thing happening again. It's ofcourse going to be tight with at least one tie-breaker just like last season but Grigor just is the better player in most aspects of the game so therefore he has the ability to take this in straight sets again.
Dominic Thiem to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.28 with Pinnaclesports
Dom should have a tough match ahead of him but if he raises his level when it matters the most it should be him winning this again. Nole isn't there with his game anymore and this feels like it's as far as he goes.

Julien Benneteau (+1.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 2.50 with Pinnacle
I'm obviously not going to suggest that Benneteau should be the favourite here, but a set will be fully within his range if he plays well imo. Coric was great in Indian Wells, good in Miami, and poor in the Davis Cup, so he's on a bit of a downward spiral after big successes, while Benneteau, who's apparently playing his last season, can swing freely. Interestingly, neither player has a good record in Monte Carlo, with Coric standing at 0-3 at the moment.
Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.96 with Marathonbet
Shapovalov crushed Tsitsipas in the Australian Open, but this should be a good opportunity for a revenge. Shapovalov has virtually no experience on European clay, while Tsitsipas has a very good record on that surface - and the two matches he had to win in the qualifiers aren't going to hurt him either.

Renata Zarazua to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 3.00 with Bet365
With so much rain around, I wouldn't be surprised to see the more local of players being more focused. Besides, Zarazua has some really good scalps from recent times, so I'm not sure what makes her a 3.00 underdog against a player that's been incredibly up-and-down recently.

Lamine Ouahab to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at 2.75 with bet365
Basilashvili has no form to speak of and just because he beat Matteo Berrettini doesn't make him favourite in this one in my eyes. Lamine just recently in Davis cup beat Nikoloz in Marrakech in straight sets. Lamine has a history in playing in Morocco while Nikoloz has never played in Morocco before this week. This could be a straight sets win for Lamine since it was the result when they last met in Marrakech in DC this season. Lamine looks very good for an upset here so clear upset on the cards for me at least.

Malek Jaziri to beat Mischa Zverev at 2.20 with Marathonbet
Yeah, let's risk it. So what that Zverev managed to beat the out-of-form Lorenzi, who was also his doubles partner for this event? Jaziri is certainly not any worse on clay.

I must admit that I do like Ouahab as a player, but he's not exactly athletic these days.
 

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Sumit Nagal at 3.13 with Pinnacle
It's high time for Oliveira to get rolling again now that we're back to clay. Nagal has some traveling to do and I think that he's a bit overrated after upsetting Granollers a couple of weeks ago. That loss was more about the Spaniard, so I'm not sure what makes Nagal such a massive fav here.
Mackenzie McDonald to beat Frances Tiafoe at 3.60 with BetVictor
McDonald is yet to play in Houston and that is a slight worry, but Tiafoe's record here reads 0-2 and his record against McDonald reads 1-3, so I'm willing to go for this punt on value terms.
Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Horacio Zeballos at 1.72 with Ladbrokes
Nishioka has a 3-0 lead over Zeballos from days in which Zeballos seemed to be stronger. Yes, this will be played on clay, but it's the famous Houston clay, so not sure this is incredibly important. What I really like, however, is how Nishioka played in the qualifiers. Norrie and Klahn aren't as strong as Zeballos, of course, but beating them while losing just seven games in total is to be admired imo. Nishioka just seems to be flying in the conditions.
Andreas Seppi to beat Radu Albot at 1.80 with Paddy Power
Seppi wasn't too bad in the Davis Cup and Albot will be a substantial drop from Pouille, especially since he also has a 2-0 record against him, 4-0 in terms of sets.
Mats Moraing to beat Santiago Giraldo at 2.00 with Ladbrokes
Giraldo has been dreadful on his comeback so far, losing against Pavic in his first match before bombing out against Monteiro in the weekend Davis Cup. Hard to say if he still has it or not, but, at 2.00, I'm going to go for Moraing, who has at least some fine wins in 2018.
Malek Jaziri to beat Marton Fucsovics at 3.15 with Unibet
The Marrakech conditions are so specific that I wouldn't be surprised if Fucsovics failed at his first attempt in them. He's better than Jaziri, but not as much as the odds suggest and Jaziri always tries a bit harder in Africa/Asia.
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Matteo Berretini at 2.80 with BetVictor
I guess that this is priced on form, but Basilashvili is the better player all things considered and he could use this tournament to spring back to life, just as he did in Lyon last year. The odds are just too high imo, but I wouldn't want to consider any of the handicaps here - if Basilashvili loses, it's probably going to be a really bad loss.

To be fair, Ahouda wasn't exactly disastrous, Ramos just approached the match very professionally.

Quite a few interesting matches today, but I'm not sure how much is there to bet on.
Nick Kyrgios to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.80 with Paddy Power
The price is already dropping at some places and understandably so. Kyrgios has been dominating this match-up so far, with only two exceptions that happened in special circumstances. Zverev isn't particularly great at the moment though, so I'll go with the King today. He did need some time off, but he looks hungry - and he was surprisingly focused against both Fognini and Lajovic.

Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Steve Johnson at 2.00 with Paddy Power
The Miami conditions don't look all that fast to me, which should hand PCB the advantage in this match-up. Both players are now starting to get back into some form, but PCB's dominance in rallies should be the key here. 1.80 would be my odds.
Denis Shapovalov to beat Sam Querrey at 2.12 with Unibet
Based on what I saw from Querrey in his match against Albot, I simply have to side with Shapovalov, who should be fine unless he breaks himself too many times. Querrey doesn't have the defensive weapons that are needed to deal with the Canadian's winners, so he'll have to rely on serving well, which is something that he wasn't really able to do against Albot. At odds against, Shapovalov has to be the play here.

Meh, at least Vekic, Ymer, and Osaka won.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Tennys Sandgren at 2.20 with Bet365
Bernarda Pera to beat Elise Mertens at 3.16 with Marathonbet
Going for two underdogs today, as Sandgren and Mertens look like pretty weak favourites to me at the moment. Both have been rather poor since the Australian Open, in fact, just struggling to get wins on the board after playing well in the first GS of the season. Their opponents, on the other hand, are producing relatively consistent results.
Edit: Pera is for tomorrow actually.

Stefanie Vogele to beat Sofia Kenin at 1.90 with Marathonbet
Michael Mmoh (-2.5) to beat Christopher Eubanks at 1.72 with Bet365
I'd have Vogele as a pretty decent fav, she's been really good in recent months and has all the experience that's required to beat players like Kenin, who's still way too up and down for my liking. Meanwhile, Mmoh should simply be way too strong for Eubanks. The fact that Eubanks got a WC could actually hurt him really, as Mmoh played well in the qualifiers and should just carry the momentum over to the main draw. 

P.Kypson/C.Norrie - Over 18.5 games at 1.90 with Bet365
Kypson is one of the more promising American youngsters, with a nice win against Smyczek yesterday, should keep things at least tight honestly. Norrie is going to beat him I reckon, but not without a fight, especially if Kypson gets his serve going well.

Hoang - Tomic 2.35 5Dimes
 
Hoang is a future Top 100. The dude got talent and he already beat some pretty good players this year on indoor. All of his matches this season are on this surface. This will be the first match of Tomic since AO. Probably he is warming up for clay season, because he missed American tournaments. Tomic's record last year at indoor is 2/4 and he was beaten by weaker plaers then Hoang.
 
Gibbs - Vikhlianceva 2.1 SBObet
They met last month in IW challenger. Gibbs won pretty easy with 2:0. Now she seems to be in better form.
Hemery - Kudla 2.9 Unibet
Kudla won his first match here after coming from Canada without a day rest. He wasn't so convinsing against Elias, who is mainly a clay court player. On the other hand Hemery is a player, who needs to find his form from the start of the tournament. He was very strong in his first match. The key point here will be Hemery's serve. If he did it well and not let Kudla to get BP, he will win. Kudla can't serve well, but he is very good in returns. This is my play of the day!
 

Yeah I like that one too. Marach usually plays a very bad service game in every set. But Pavic is on another level, i rate him the best doubles player right now. But i agree its 50 50.

Isner/Sock to beat Marach/Pavic at 2.20 with Bet365
Finally something I like, although it comes from the doubles. Isner and Sock have been playing some fine tennis here by the looks of things and they will do their best now that they are in the semis, so I'd say that this is pretty much a coin flip, no reason to have one side at 2.20 here, especially since that side prevailed in the only previous meeting.

Nice catch! Osaka won, so I guess that only an injury could prevent her from finishing Under 47.5 in the rankings. Today looks like another difficult day in IW though. Federer - Chung should be a good watch.

I have bet Alex

Could happen, yeah.

Not sure about today at all, it's probably best to stay away given the state of things honestly, too many odd results. I will be hoping for Osaka to beat Pliskova, however, as that would do wonders for the pre-season outright.