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Denman

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Posts posted by Denman

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Very happy with tonight's results with four out my five bets being winners. Bet 62: CSKA Moscow v Trabzonspor - BACK CSKA @ 1.68 +£0.24 Bet 63: Lille v Inter Milan - LAY Lille @ 2.22 +£0.24 Bet 64: Napoli v Bayern Munich - LAY Bayern @ 2.04 +£0.24 Bet 65: FC Basle v Benfica - LAY Benfica @ 2.12 -£0.28 Bet 66: Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax - LAY Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.70 +£0.24 New Bank: £13.31

    Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

    in Champions League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Champions League > Tuesday 18th October

    I wasn't making a case for Villarreal :ok It's the same debate we have every year really, and the fact of the matter is that league football is a different kettle of fish to European football, and that sometimes sides that need a win do exactly that. Punting on a short priced favourite to beat a handicap is merely a way of boosting the odds on offer, and is exactly the same as what we were discussing earlier in the thread with Hitch building his acca full of what most punters see as no value shots, just to boost the accumulated odds. Why is the 1.30'ish on offer for a straight City win too short, yet the - 1.5 AH 'value'? Not saying they won't win 3 or 4 nil, and I agree when we put the case forward Villarreal look all over the shop. But City still have a lot to prove to me in this competition, Villarreal need the points just as bad, and can still put out eleven players.
    Good point because the Asian Handicap odds are intrinsically linked to the match odds themselves, there will be times where the( -1.5) is preferable over the match odds but if the match odds themselves aren't value in your opinion then it's also highly unlikely that taking them on the Asian Handicap is value. Think Man City are too short here to be honest, not one I'd go about laying though to be honest. Villarreal have been priced up as if a lower mid-table Premier League side, whereas I'd have expect them to be around the level of an Everton or an Aston Villa, games in which Man City where priced up around the 1.45 mark. Admit to not knowing much about Villarreal, but surely they must have some quality to reach the Champions League in the first place.

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Some Champions League bets that caught my eye for tonight. Bet 62: CSKA Moscow v Trabzonspor - BACK CSKA @ 1.68 Liability of £0.37 to win £0.24 Bet 63: Lille v Inter Milan - LAY Lille @ 2.22 Liability of £0.31 to win £0.24 Bet 64: Napoli v Bayern Munich - LAY Bayern @ 2.04 Liability of £0.26 to win £0.24 Bet 65: FC Basle v Benfica - LAY Benfica @ 2.12 Liability of £0.28 to win £0.24 Bet 66: Dinamo Zagreb v Ajax - LAY Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.70 Liability of £0.43 to win £0.24

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Three winners today, Arsenal made hard-work of their game against Sunderland but deserved the 2-1 win. Meanwhile an entertaining game at St. James' saw Newcastle come from behind twice in the game, thought they where well worth a point in that game though. Bet 59: West Brom v Wolves - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.80 +£0.24 Bet 60: Arsenal v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 8.80 +£0.09 Bet 61: Newcastle v Tottenham - LAY Tottenham @ 2.54 +£0.24 New Bank: £12.63

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 55: Liverpool v Man United - LAY Man United @ 2.48 +£0.24 Bet 56: Norwich v Swansea - LAY Norwich @ 2.28 -£0.32 Bet 57: Stoke v Fulham - LAY Stoke @ 2.18 -£0.30 Bet 58: Man City v Aston Villa - BACK (1.59) to LAY (1.57) under 3.5 goals +£0.03 New Bank: £12.06 ----------- So a losing Saturday unfortunately, hopefully I can pull some of it back with my Sunday bets. Bet 59: West Brom v Wolves - LAY Under 1.5 goals @ 3.80 Liability of £0.70 to win £0.24 I fail to be convinced by either of these team defenses, they both seem better sides when attacking. Local derby should ensure a high tempo goals, be a surprise if there's not at least a couple of goals in this one. Bet 60: Arsenal v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 8.80 Liability of £0.78 to win £0.10 Was impressed with Arsenal last time out despite defeat against Tottenham. I don't really rate Sunderland much as an away side and they numerous players missing for various different reasons in Bardsley, Bramble and Bendtner, all three would in Sunderland's first choice eleven. Hard to see Sunderland coming away from this game with anything but i'll lay Sunderland to cover the draw. Bet 61: Newcastle v Tottenham - LAY Tottenham @ 2.54 Liability of £0.38 to win £0.24 Very similar situation to the Liverpool v Man United game this one in my view. Newcastle are a very strong home team and are in a great run of form right now, Tottenham you would say are the better side but this should be a difficult game in what looks a tough game to call. Therefore I'm happy to lay Tottenham in what I expect to be an evenly contested game.

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Decided to trade out for a small profit on my trade here. Reason being it's been confirmed Balotelli is fit for this game and also Aguero has a chance of being fit. Therefore my original reasoning behind the trade has gone and I feel more comfortable taking the profit now. mancityi.png

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Onto the weekend's Premier League games, Saturday picks first Sunday ones to follow. Bet 55: Liverpool v Man United - LAY Man United @ 2.48 Liability of £0.37 to win £0.24 Surprised to see Man United clear favourites for this game. Yes they've had an impressive start to the season but their defense is still vulnerable in my opinion and Liverpool have the attacking talent to exploit that. In my opinion this game is a very difficult one to call and I would personally give each side a similar chance of winning with Liverpool being so strong at Anfield. Therefore I think the value is in opposing Man United in this tricky away fixture. Bet 56: Norwich v Swansea - LAY Norwich @ 2.28 Liability of £0.32 to win £0.24 I've actually been impressed by both these promoted sides so far this season and from what I've seen of sides so far they look to of a similarly level. Swansea where dealt somewhat of a cruel starting set of away fixtures having to face Man City, Arsenal & Chelsea in their opening three away games. Incidentally despite the strong opposition Swansea have shown glimpses of quality in all three of those games. At home Swansea are yet to conceded a goal and boost a record of eight points from four games. Norwich have also impressed me at times this season no more so than in their last game at Old Trafford in which they where extremely unfortunate not to get anything from the game. All things considered though I think Norwich or a touch short in what looks to be an evenly matched encounter. Bet 57: Stoke v Fulham - LAY Stoke @ 2.18 Liability of £0.30 to win £0.24 Despite Stoke's strong form at home and Fulham's sometimes in different away form I think laying Stoke here is a good bet. Fulham might not win many away games but they a team that always seems to be involved in a lot of draws and very rarely get beaten heavily in games. Fulham where impressive in their last game at home against QPR and seemingly have plenty of goals in their side. On a neutral ground I'd have Fulham has slight favourites, therefore on this occasion I think the home bias has been taken into account too much to the point where I think Stoke are too short. Fulham won here last season also. Bet 58: Man City v Aston Villa - BACK under 3.5 goals @ 1.59 (with a view to trade) Liability of £2.48 to win £1.39 Think this bets offers a good trading opportunity. Man City have problems in the striking department with doubts over Tevez, Balotelli & Aguero participation in this game. In addition I think this one has the potential to turn into a similiar type of game as the Everton one in which Man City eventually won without playing that well. Aston Villa for me haven't had a brilliant start to the season yet find themselves nicely placed in the league. Alex McLeish is known for his defensive line-ups away from home and I'd expect Villa to try and frustrate Man City in this one. For all of thoose reason I expect the odds on unders in this market to shorten.

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Another profitable round of International fixtures for me with only Serbia letting me down by getting beat against Slovenia. In addition there was also a few other games "where teams had to win" that I could have included in hindsight. But all in all I'm pleased with how things are progressing so far. Bet 49: Turkey v Azerbaijan - BACK Turkey @ 1.13 +£0.09 Bet 50: Slovenia v Serbia - LAY Slovenia @ 5.00 -£0.60 Bet 51: France v Bosnia - LAY Bosnia @ 7.40 +£0.14 Bet 52: Croatia v Latvia - BACK Croatia @ 1.17 +£0.14 Bet 53: Denmark v Portugal - LAY The Draw @ 2.84 +£0.23 Bet 54: Norway v Cyprus - LAY Over 3.5 goals @ 1.52 +£0.23 New Bank: £12.41 More or less a month into my challenge and I've increased my initial bank size by 24.1%. I'll be more than happy if I could keep that rate up in the long-term.

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Following on from my success of Friday's set of games I'm going for a similar approach with tomorrow's games going for teams that need a result up against teams with effectively nothing to play for. Bet 49: Turkey v Azerbaijan - BACK Turkey @ 1.13 Liability of £0.77 to win £0.10 Bet 50: Slovenia v Serbia - LAY Slovenia @ 5.00 Liability of £0.60 to win £0.14 Bet 51: France v Bosnia - LAY Bosnia @ 7.40 Liability of £0.96 to win £0.14 Bet 52: Croatia v Latvia - BACK Croatia @ 1.17 Liability of £0.90 to win £0.15 Bet 53: Denmark v Portugal - LAY The Draw @ 2.84 Liability of £0.44 to win £0.23 Bet 54: Norway v Cyprus - LAY Over 3.5 goals @ 1.52 Liability of £0.12 to win £0.23

    Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

    in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October The price of the draw in the Denmark/Portugal game is interesting. Having looked over the group both Denmark and Portugal have the same points but Portugal the better goal difference meaning Portugal would get the automatic qualification spot should they avoid defeat in this game. The scenario for Denmark is a little more complicated, a draw would guarantee them a play-off spot although a win would see them leapfrog Portugal into the automatic spot. However Denmark could lose this game and still get the play-off spot. For example a 2-0 defeat would mean they'd only be beaten to the play-off spot by Norway if Norway win by five goals scoring at least six in the process against Cyprus to overtake them on goal difference. So all in all I think the draw is not as likely as the odds suggest. I doubt both teams will just play this game out as a draw, Denmark can still suffer a defeat and get the play-off spot. In a sense it could come to a situation where the game is a draw going into the closing stages of the game, Denmark could throw caution to the wind if they know they are not in danger of being overtaken by Norway. Therefore my bet is: Denmark v Portugal - LAY Draw @ 2.84 (Betfair)

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? My method of picking the teams that "need to win" or needed to "avoid defeat" proved a successful one with me getting 11 out of my 13 bets right to give me a nice profit on this round of fixtures. Bet 35: Belgium v Kazakhstan - BACK Belgium @ 1.14 +£0.09 Bet 36: Andorra v Ireland - BACK Ireland @ 1.10 +£0.09 Bet 37: Armenia v Macedonia - LAY Over 2.5 goals -£0.27 Bet 38: Serbia v Italy - LAY Italy @ 3.60 +£0.13 Bet 39: France v Albania - BACK France @ 1.15 +£0.09 Bet 40: Bosnia v Luxembourg - BACK Bosnia @ 1.10 +£0.09 Bet 41: Finland v Sweden - LAY Finland @ 6.60 +£0.13 Bet 42: Greece v Croatia - LAY Greece @ 2.80 -£0.42 Bet 43: Montenegro v England - LAY Montenegro @ 6.20 +£0.13 Bet 44: Switzerland v Wales - LAY Switzerland @ 1.93 +£0.22 Bet 45: Cyprus v Denmark - BACK Denmark @ 1.48 +£0.23 Bet 46: Portugal v Iceland - BACK Portugal @ 1.10 +£0.09 Bet 47: Liechtenstein v Scotland - BACK Scotland @ 1.33 +£0.12 New Bank: £12.05 Record Bets 38, Wins 32, Lost 6, SR: 84.21% Trades 9, Profitable 6, Scratch 3, Losses 0, SR: 66.67%

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? I'm not going to write-up a reason for each bet because there's a lot of bets this weekend and plus my thinking behind a lot of these bets are pretty much the same. It's pretty simple, a lot of the teams near the top of each group need one more win to guarantee qualification for Euro 2012. A lot of these teams also happen to be against the lesser sides in the group who even on a good day would struggle to get anything against such side, the extra motivation of that one more win should see the majority of the teams win in my opinion. I don't however knew if a team is value or not I'm counting on the fact that some people will have the opposite thought process to myself and think just because the teams have differing interests in the game should not mean such a team is a so short and maybe the prices are indeed a little longer than they should be. In addition the bets that aren't outright win bets are often lays against teams that are coming up against teams who only need just a point to qualify, maybe a draw would suit both teams to some extent in those situations. The couple of my speculative bets come in the Armenia and Wales games, these are based more on what I've seem that simply stats and the situation in each group. Wales impressed against Montenegro in their latest game and I think they can give the Swiss a good game. Meanwhile I'm always tempted to back unders or lay overs in Macedonia games has they are often low-scoring. Bet 35: Belgium v Kazakhstan - BACK Belgium @ 1.14 Liability of £0.64 to win £0.09 Bet 36: Andorra v Ireland - BACK Ireland @ 1.10 Liability of £0.90 to win £0.09 Bet 37: Armenia v Macedonia - LAY Over 2.5 goals Liability of £0.27 to win £0.22 Bet 38: Serbia v Italy - LAY Italy @ 3.60 Liability of £0.36 to win £0.13 Bet 39: France v Albania - BACK France @ 1.15 Liability of £0.60 to win £0.09 Bet 40: Bosnia v Luxembourg - BACK Bosnia @ 1.10 Liability of £0.90 to win £0.09 Bet 41: Finland v Sweden - LAY Finland @ 6.60 Liability of £0.78 to win £0.13 Bet 42: Greece v Croatia - LAY Greece @ 2.80 Liability of £0.41 to win £0.22 Bet 43: Montenegro v England - LAY Montenegro @ 6.20 Liability of £0.73 to win £0.13 Bet 44: Switzerland v Wales - LAY Switzerland @ 1.93 Liability of £0.21 to win £0.22 Bet 45: Cyprus v Denmark - BACK Denmark @ 1.48 Liability of £0.49 to win £0.22 Bet 46: Portugal v Iceland - BACK Portugal @ 1.10 Liability of £0.90 to win £0.09 Bet 47: Liechtenstein v Scotland - BACK Scotland @ 1.33 Liability of £0.40 to win £0.13

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Beskitas drew 0-0 after having two men sent off so my lay was successful there and Godoy Cruz won 2-0 giving me a winning bet. Looking to get my Euro2012 qualifier bets matched today so I'll probably post them up either later today or some time tomorrow. Bet 33: Gaziantepspor v Beskitas (in-play) - LAY Beskitas @ 3.15 +£0.21 Bet 34: Godoy Cruz v San Lorenzo (in-play) - LAY San Lorenzo @ 3.50 +£0.21 New Bank: £11.33

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Well that didn't go so well in the end with PSG winning 2-0. Shall look closely at the Internationals fixtures on Friday and pick out some bets. Bet 32: PSG V Lyon (in-play) - LAY PSG @ 2.36 -£0.30 New Bank: £10.91

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 32: PSG V Lyon (in-play) - LAY PSG @ 2.36 Liability of £0.30 to win £0.21 Been impressed by Lyon's start in this game, they've been the better side. Think home side worth a lay here because I can't see many goals in this game so there's got to be high probability of a draw in my view.

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Ended up breaking even after today's bets. Thought I was bit unlucky with my AGS bets particularly the Adebayor one who missed a one-on-one. Pleased I got the over bet right though, it was a very open game as expected. Bet 28: Bolton v Chelsea - LAY 2-2 @ 21 +£0.04 Bet 29: Tottenham v Arsenal - BACK Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 +£0.21 Bet 30: Tottenham v Arsenal - Anytime Goalscorer Emmanuel Adebayor @ 2.62 -£0.14 Bet 31: Tottenham v Arsenal - Anytime Goalscorer Robin Van Persie @ 3.05 -£0.11 New Bank: £11.21 Record Bets 23, Wins 19, Lost 4, SR: 82.61% Trades 8, Profitable 6, Scratch 2, Losses 0, SR: 75.00%

    How Far Can a Tenner Stretch?

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 28: Bolton v Chelsea - LAY 2-2 @ 21 Liability of £0.80 to win £0.04 Bolton are stuck at the bottom of the table at present and I can't see that changing after this game. Chelsea are steadily building their new identity under Villas-Boas and you've got to fancy them against a Bolton still ravaged by injuries and suspensions. Going for the lay of 2-2 here because I think it's a highly unlikely result. Bet 29: Tottenham v Arsenal - BACK Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 Liability of £0.31 to win £0.21 Think there's a little bit of value in taking overs here. In past times these games have guaranteed goals and I don't see anything changing here. Arsenal's defense is woeful and I can't see them shutting out a Tottenham team that is full of top quality attacking options. In addition regardless of what Arsenal side is put out you always fancy them to score at least one. Think we could be in for another high-scoring game here. Bet 30: Tottenham v Arsenal - Anytime Goalscorer Emmanuel Adebayor @ 2.62 Liability of £0.14 to win £0.22 Bet 31: Tottenham v Arsenal - Anytime Goalscorer Robin Van Persie @ 3.05 Liability of £0.11 to win £0.21 No mind-blowing reason behind these bets other than the reason that I fancy goals in the games as I mentioned previous and these are the most likely goalscorers from both sides in my view. Very good chance of at least one getting on the goal sheet. Also offers some cover against my overs bet should one of them score in a game that goes unders.

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