[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k It seems nothing short of a matter of time before Ajax score in this one. Skinny price on a win for sure but expect Ajax to get the job done here. 14.) Ajax v NEC - BACK Ajax @ 1.22 (IP) Liability: £33.44, Potential Profit: £7.01

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Picked out the one bet for tomorrow. Liverpool's price for this game looks a little short to me and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Aston Villa get something from this game. When Liverpool do win they tend to win by a number of goals, just the one goal in this game also seem very unlikely given the attacking natures of both sides. 13.) Aston Villa v Liverpool - LAY 0-1 @ 11 Liability: £32.60, Potential Profit: £3.10

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k

I looked at betfair premium charges and im very worried for all of us. The markets I play are only available on betfair betdaq smarkets willhill and bet365 overs and unders and two limit you smarkets ban you if you win £20k + and betfair do charges that make betting unfeasible. Have you any suggestions?

Like I said before I have never been in a position to be charged the premium charge with Betfair so I can't really comment fully on that. At the moment I just aim to get the best odds possibly with my bets wherever that may be. I do admit to having a few of my bookmaker accounts closed or restricted but I suppose it is understandable but nonetheless annoying. There's always bookmaker shops you could try as well as an alternative but then there's that great hassle of having to leave the house. Anyway back to my bets and pleased to say that all three bets today proved to be winning ones. In addition Murphy lost 6-2 at the semi-final stage of the China Open to Mark Selby meaning a big boost to my bank and thus my future stakes. The Arsenal/Reading game proved a little close to comfort with my bet looking in slightly danger with the score going 3-0 and 4-1 at different stages, thankfully it finished the later which keeps my 100% record going for the time being at least. Results 3.) China Open 2013 (Winner) - LAY Shaun Murphy @ 17.5 +£1.54 10.) Sunderland v Man United - LAY 0-0 @ 12.5 +£2.21 11.) Arsenal v Reading - BACK Reading (+3.5) @ 1.20 +£5.33 12.) Everton v Stoke - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.11 +£2.79 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £130.76 P/L: +£30.76

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k That Murphy chap seeming doesn't have the decency to get knocked out of the China Open and make my bet a winning one so I can't up my stakes. Here are my weekend bets though: 10.) Sunderland v Man United - LAY 0-0 @ 12.5 Liability: £26.68, Potential Profit: £2.21 11.) Arsenal v Reading - BACK Reading (+3.5) @ 1.20 Liability: £26.65, Potential Profit: £5.33 12.) Everton v Stoke - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.11 Liability: £26.60, Potential Profit: £2.79

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Two very cosy winners if truth be told, early goal in the Chile v Uruguay game meant the 0-0 lay was a winner, turned into a very open match like I predicted and could have been more than just the two goals. Panama v Honduras game finished 2-0 after being 1-0 at half-time, as I stated four more goals in that game looked very unlikely and that proved to be the case. No football of note till the weekend now so don't think they'll be anymore bets till then but still have my snooker one in-running till then, Murphy plays his last 16 match tomorrow. Results 8.) Chile v Uruguay - LAY 0-0 @ 14 +£1.95 9.) Panama v Honduras - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.05 (IP) +£1.25 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £92.16 Funds In-play: £26.73 P/L: +£18.89

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k I do love my football and I'm still up at this hour watching the CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers. Another bet has taken my fancy in the Panama v Honduras game. The market strongly fancied not many goals pre-game and despite an early goal from Panama you can see why that was the case. I struggle to see how it's possible for many goals in this game, another four would be somewhat remarkable. Managed to get on Under 4.5 goals at 1.05 just before half-time although given how the game has gone thus far the price seems somewhat generous. 9.) Panama v Honduras - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.05 (IP) Liability: £26.30, Potential Profit: £1.25

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Got this is in just before kick-off, two very attacking sides from what I've seen of these teams. Chile's game against Peru was very open expect another like that here. 8.) Chile v Uruguay - LAY 0-0 @ 14 Liability: £26.65, Potential Profit: £1.95

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Yeah steady progress so far although I'm not sure if some of my bets have actually been that sound in hindsight with a couple of them being close to be losers, I don't know if there's such a thing has a bad loser but if you don't find value bets you will eventually be a loser and not a winner. I guess my bets would be pretty hard to follow if anyone wanted to do so because I do try and get at the front of the queue and have placed a number of in-play bets so far. Although my main priority shall be games from the English Premier League and most of my bets should be pre-event bets and not in-play ones. Bet 4 was within minutes of being a loser with Brazil equalising late on in that game that make it 1-1. Bet 5 was a more comfortable winner with the game between Denmark and Bulgaria turning out to be a close game like I predicted with the game finishing 1-1. Bet 6 again had a bit of fortune as well with Jordan picking up a surprised 2-1 win, with Japan missing a penalty as well there could so easily have been five goals or more in that game. Bet 7 again went a little close for comfort with Czech Republic winning 3-0, although it must be said two of their goals did come late on with Armenia chasing the game. Bet 3 is still in-running and currently the bet doesn't look so great with Murphy progressing against Higginson, although Murphy didn't have to perform that great because Higginson played poorly I thought. In addition both Stevens and Trump fell to defeats in the first round meaning that Murphy looks to have a much easier run to the semi-final than I anticipated, has a result his odd to win have dropped significantly although this is not a trading effort so has long has he fails to win it matters not what price he reaches. Results 4.) Brazil v Russia - LAY Russia @ 6.00 (IP) +£5.07 5.) Denmark v Bulgaria - LAY 3-0 @ 15 +£1.81 6.) Jordan v Japan - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.04 (IP) +£1.01 7.) Armenia v Czech Republic - LAY Any Unquoted @ 25 (IP) +£1.07 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £88.95 Funds In-play: £26.73 P/L: +£15.68 I should have really thought about the prospect of having funds in-play for a while because it becomes a bit of dilemma has to what figure I should use has my bank for staking purpose. Screenshots [ATTACH=CONFIG]4520[/ATTACH]

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Another in-play one here, 25 minutes in whilst I see goals I think four or more from one team is unlikely given a goal being scored should see the team sit back on the lead. Should also point out the Denmark/Bulgaria lay odds should have been 15.00 but I forget to put it. 7.) Armenia v Czech Republic - LAY Any Unquoted @ 25 Liability: £26.88, Potential Profit: £1.07

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Firstly another in-play bet, this time from a World Cup qualifier between Jordan v Japan. Been watching the game and thus far it's been a rather turgid affair (a common theme in the AFC qualifiers) with Jordan seemingly happy to play for a point against Japan. Therefore goals seem rather unlikely here. Secondly I've picked out a correct score lay in the Denmark v Bulgaria game, on the match odds market Denmark have drifted a little from their opening price which was a rather ridiculous 1.60 in my opinion. Looking at the tables and results so far one would expect this to be a fairly close game with not many goals. Managed to get my lay in at what I think is a good price on an unlikely outcome. I am actually still using 25% stake from after bet 2 still because I actually placed the Denmark/Bulgaria bet before bet 3 and decided for consistence purposes to do the same with my other bet. I shall update with full results after these have finished, also I'll give screenshots for evidence of the in-play bets. 5.) Denmark v Bulgaria - LAY Correct Score 3-0 Liability: £26.60, Potential Profit: £1.81 6.) Jordan v Japan - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.04 (In-play) Liability: £26.63, Potential Profit: £1.01

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Thanks skittle. One more bet here I've decided on in-play in the Brazil v Russia friendly. 0-0 at present but I expect Brazil to shine through eventually in this game, Russia seem content with defending and haven't shown much attacking intent, I think a win for them here is very unlikely. 4.) Brazil v Russia - LAY Russia @ 6.00 Liability: £26.65, Potential Profit: £5.07

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k China Open snooker starts tomorrow and I've picked out Shaun Murphy has one to oppose on the outright market. He's been dealt a tricky opening game against Andrew Higginson and if he is to progress through this tournament there's a good chance he'll have to overcome the likes of Stevens, Trump and Selby even before getting to the final. There's no doubting Murphy has got the required talent to win any tournament he enters but I think there's plenty of players in better form than him at the moment. All things considered I think he should be priced up at around 20/1 shot here, so I'm happy to lay at anything under that. 3.) China Open 2013 (Winner) - LAY Shaun Murphy @ 17.5 Liability: £26.73, Potential Profit: £1.54

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Two winners to start, only another 398 to go! Uruguay and Paraguay game finished 1-1 with the aforementioned Suarez getting on the score sheet. The England game finished 0-8, and to be honest San Marino never looked like scoring, I'm not sure if they had a shot because I got bored and kept switching to the Scotland/Wales game. Just to clarifty the return for that bet was actually a profit of £4.55 and not £4.53 like I originally wrote. 1.) Uruguay v Paraguay - LAY 0-0 @ 12 +£2.16 2.) San Marino v England - BACK England Clean Sheet @ 1.18 +£4.55 Start Bank: £100.00 Current Bank: £106.71 P/L: +£6.71

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Been watching the odds around England clean sheet quite closely in this game because I felt anything above 1.10 was value here having watched the reverse fixture, Ladbrokes offer an outstanding looking price here in my view. San Marino will duly struggle to have a shot let alone score a goal. 2.) San Marino v England - BACK England Clean Sheet @ 1.18 Liability: £25.00, Potential Profit: £4.53

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Well I've got my first bet in nice and early at what I think are reasonable odds. Granted maybe slightly risky because South American football is not my forte but I've watched quite a bit of Uruguay over the past few years. They haven't performed quite as expected in the World Cup qualifiers following their Copa America win and their impressive performance at the World Cup in South Africa. Currently they stand 5th place sandwiched between Venezuela and Chile who both sit on twelve points as well. This is a crucial game for Uruguay with four of their next five games preceding this being away from home. Paraguay are up against it being bottom of the group with only seven points, some would say a point would be a good result for them here but they really need to start winning games if they've got any chance of qualification. The attacking talent on show is always a key factor when deciding to lay a 0-0 scoreline, in Suarez Uruguay probably have the outstanding player from this season's Premier League and even if the game turns out to be a drudged affair there's still always a chance of a goal from him. 1.) Uruguay v Paraguay - LAY 0-0 @ 12 Liability: £24.97, Potential Profit: £2.16

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Re: It's a long way to a £100k Thanks for the welcome. I'm liking the positivity in talking about Betfair premium charges, fortunately my account is at a loss at present so I don't need to worry about that just yet. Most of my bets probably will be with Betfair but if I see something worth backing with a bookmaker I will do that also. Although some of my online bookmaker accounts have been closed. The profit dumping method for avoiding Betfair charge is something I haven't ever thought about it does sound a sensible thing to do, but then again you've got to try and make sure your losers are on Betfair and winners with the bookmakers and I don't think Betfair would approve of this. I still hold some slim hope the Betdaq or another exchange will come to challenge Betfair dominance and thus reduce charges. Although first things first I've got to make some profit before I start having to worry about that.

[It's a long way to a £100k]

Rather optimistic I know but I want to win myself £100k with this Glory Hunt. Granted I've tried them in the past and I've never seemed to continue them for that long, hopefully it'll be different this time round. I'm going to start with a bank of £100 so in theory I only have to multiply my initial bank by 1000x, which should be a piece of cake really. I have been profitable with my football betting this year, I think I've vastly improved my selection policies in recent times and pay much bigger attention to the price and the situation surrounding each bet. My staking plan is rather aggressive and not really that complicated to be honest it shall simply be a 25% outlay/liability of my bank for each bet with my bank being updated after every bet, to take full advantage of the wonders that is compounding. I shall also up that staking to 33% of my bank after one loser, that shall remain the case until I either reach back to my original high point or if I suffer another losing bet. In both case my staking than shall return to 25% until a suffer another loser and then I repeat the same process again. There's no select plan for what I will be betting on but since I'm risking such an hefty portion of my bank each time obviously the bets are going to be mostly laying long shots or backing at short odds. I do have it in mind to focus on correct score laying though and from a rough estimate I expect my average odds to be in the laying 13/14 shot range or backing around 1.05-1.10 shots. If my maths is correct 400 successive win bets at the price should get me my £100k. I know that is rather unlikely but if I can at least turn some profit I'll be happy. There's also the possibility I'll bank some profit at some stage but don't want to do it too often because I want to put my funds into action. First bet shall be up sometime soon.

[One bet to £20,000 challenge]

Re: One bet to £20,000 challenge Like the approach you've gone for here, especially putting £50 on it. Got a decent chance of this coming in now I think (or a continued very good run for your money at least). Motherwell are currently 2nd and Aldershot are in the relegation zone as well now after losing today (although bottom of League Two is ridiculously close, five teams on 40 points). Benfica also managed to avoid the two main dangers in Tottenham/Chelsea in the Europa League draw although Newcastle will be no pushovers.

[Manchester United v Reading > Sat 16th March]

Re: Manchester United v Reading > Sat 16th March To be fair Reading have given Man United two very close games so far this season. I remember the FA Cup tie at Old Trafford, I thought Reading played extremely well in that game and very nearly came back from 2-0 down with plenty of late chances but could only manage the one goal back. Granted Man United should win but I'm never one for backing at such short odds. Probably going to chance a small lay if Man United start slowly and look to traded out in-play here.

[Stoke City v Wigan Athletic > Tue 29th January]

Re: Stoke City v Wigan Athletic > Tue 29th January I like the price on Stoke here who are currently available at 6/5 (2.20) with a few bookmakers. The game has been priced up as if these two teams are very well matched, which I don't think really is the case. I don't like looking at tables for proof or reasoning behind bets but Stoke are currently a full ten points ahead of Wigan in the league table and surely that tells you something. Whilst I agree Wigan play some decent football at times I still think too often they lack that clinical edge upfront (even more so without Kone for this watch) and that with their tendancy to concede bad goals and you can see why they're in the relegation zone. Stoke find themselves in the relative comfort of mid-table despite never really performing that well in my opinion. But Stoke specialist in making themselves hard to beat and it's their good defending that has been the main reason for many of their points this season. Overall Stoke can usually be relied on to be sound defensively and I think they are over-priced here as I was expecting around the evens mark or perhaps even a shade odds-on here.

[Sunderland v Reading > Tues 11th December]

Re: Sunderland v Reading > Tues 11th December Both teams are struggling but I see much more underlying quality in the Sunderland team. Reading's last four away fixtures have been against QPR, Wigan Aston Villa & Southampton. In theory four of the weaker teams in the league and yet they've worryingly only come away with just the one point from those four games. That being said Reading do seem a well-drilled hard-working side they just lack quality in certain areas in my opinion. Overall I think at just over evens it's worth hoping that Sunderland come good here. It's a big game for them and I can see the grinding out a victory here, which in the past they've done so well at the Stadium of Light.

[Aston Villa v Arsenal > Saturday 24th November]

Re: Aston Villa v Arsenal > Saturday 24th November I like the price on Arsenal here to be honest. You'd expect them to boss the game in midfield and their defense has held up well away from home this season. I don't rate this Aston Villa team at all and they've probably got one of the weakest squads in the league in my view. Granted they put up a good fight against Man United in their last home game, yet still lost in the end.

[West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November

Prices for Stoke have been slashed from 4.3 to 3.65 at my book. I took draw at 3.39' date=' and now it's 3.26.[/quote'] Few players missing for West Ham namely Benayoun, Vaz Te and Jarvis.

[West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November]

Re: West Ham v Stoke City > Monday 19th November I think the prices for this game is more or less spot on here West Ham are marginally the better team at the moment in my opinion and deserve to be around the tad over evens mark the currently reside at. The goal line interest me here, I see most people seem to think unders to be a good bet. On first look at the game you would probably think unders the logical choice. I agree unders to be the most likely outcome but not as strongly as the odds suggest in my opinion. Noted that West Ham do tend to create plenty of chances at home and think this was one my major reasons for deciding on overs. Granted Stoke are a very defensive team and don't tend to be involved in games with too many goals. But all things being considered I'm happy to overs at 2.34 on Betfair as I think there's more than a 43% chance of overs here.

[Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday 11th November]

Re: Chelsea v Liverpool > Sunday 11th November I continue to be baffled at Liverpool's price this season. For me they are being over-estimated nearly every week. Chelsea are firm title challengers for me this season, along with Man United they've been the best team in the league this season. Whereas Liverpool have played some good football at times but rely heavily on Suarez, granted he's a top class player but to be successful team you need all round quality. Player for player Chelsea are clearly the much better side for me. I'd have Chelsea firmly odds on here so the current price strikes me as fantastic value, especially if you consider Man City's price in their match in what I would consider a similar sort of quality difference as this one.