Denman
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Posts posted by Denman
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Re: Liverpool v Tottenham - Monday 8pm - Bet365 £50 "In Play" Free Bet I'm somewhere in between, I like to guarantee myself a profit from these offers but always have slightly more profit on a certain outcome.
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Re: Arsenal v Blackburn > Sat 4th Feb I actually don't fancy many goals in this one at all. You always expect goals in this Arsenal side but truth is they've struggled to score at home in recent week (if you discount the FA Cup game). In their last five league home games they've scored only once on each occassions, and the list includes teams such as QPR & Wolves who could be deemed on a similiar level to Blackburn. In addition Blackburn are without their main goal threat in Yakubu, but also Samba not playing (is fit but won't be playing after transfer request) who is their focal point from set-pieces will be a big miss. That being said Blackburn always seem to create some goal-scoring chances, but without thoose two the threat is obviously reduced. New striker Modeste didn't look a natural finisher base don the Newcastle game and will probably be the lone striker once again. Last year this fixture ended 0-0, and I'm sure Blackburn would happily take the result once again. Under 2.5 goals @ 2.44 (Pinnacle) and Under 3.5 goals @ 1.57 (Ladbrokes/Pinnacle) does look appealing to me.
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Re: Aston Villa v QPR > 1 Feb Aston Villa's home record is rather poor this season. The way they threw away a 2-0 lead against Arsenal in the FA Cup will surely not do much for their confidence. In constrast QPR have picked up some impressive points on the road this season and where in my opinion the better team in their narrow defeat against Newcastle in their last away game. Hughes seems to have added some improved defensive qualities to the team already although the goalscoring would be a concern for me in this game with the injury doubts Bothroyd, Helguson and DJ Campbell. Still I think laying Aston Villa at around 10/11 or backing QPR @ 4/1 offers a little bit of value. Even more so if some of QPR's injury doubts start the game.
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Re: New Year Poker Resolutions 2012 Mines simply to play more poker and try to break even or better.
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Re: My Betting Log 2012 Good luck with this Skylark, enjoyed your previous GHs hopefully this one will trump the lot. :ok
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Re: Folding pocket Kings pre-flop
First time I'd played this player, had played about 100 hands on that table and it was clear it was a very tight player who only played premium hands. A call may have been a better idea but the flop was a blank and I probably would have ended up all-in anyway.Did you have any stats on him ? Had you played with him before ? In this hand, I call his second re-raise to 80c and see a flop. -
Re: Folding pocket Kings pre-flop Thanks for your opinions guys, I was thinking I just got unlucky but I did have an inkling he had aces, but very difficult to fold them.
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Had a hand last night and I'd like to know what an outsider would think of my play, I think I already know the answer but some advice would be most welcome. Was only small stakes No Limit Hold'em cash table, blinds $0.02 and $0.04. The table is five-handed the UTG player has been playing aggresively and rasiing a lot mean while the rest of the table has generally been playing tight and only playing premium hands especially P2. I'm the player on the BB here I have around $4 in chips whilst P2 has around the $6 mark. UTG - Raises to $0.08 (min raise) P2 - Re-Raise to $0.20 P3 - Folds SB - Folds BB - Re-Raise to $0.40 UTG - Folds P2 - Re-Raise to $0.80 BB - Re-Raise to $1.80 P2 - All-In (roughly the $6 mark) BB - Calls (All-In for around $4) I turn over Kings (KK) in the BB whilst P2 turns over pocket Aces (AA) and I lose the pot. My question is would anybody have folded pocket kings in this position? When P2 went all-in, I was seriously considering folding. The only hands realistic he could have been on where AA or KK given his style of play. Although it could possibly have been Queens or Jacks in which case I would have been making the right play by calling or course. So like I said any feedback would be most helpful.
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 151: Everton v Norwich - LAY Everton @ 1.67 Everton have been unconvincing this season, usually you'd expect them to be the sort of middle safe ground between the top teams and the relegation battlers but this season they seem to be closer to the teams near the bottom rather than the top teams. Norwich have impressed me this season, some good away performances in amongst including a win against a Bolton and an unlucky defeat at Old Trafford. Overall given Everton's poor home form this season I think they are a good value lay against a Norwich side that does have goals in it. Bet 152: Wolves v Stoke - LAY Stoke @ 3.00 Stoke got a very rare away win last time against Everton. The overall picture still shows that Stoke have a dreadful away record in the Premier League. Wolves have got into the habit of winning important home games after their last two wins against Wigan & Sunderland. Home advantage is big for Wolves here and I think they should be clearer favourites than they are. Bet 153: Newcastle v Swansea - LAY Under 2.5 goals @ 2.06 Probably the meeting of the two in-form keepers in the league and present but I fancy goals in this one. Newcastle's defense looked heavily unsettled without the usual centreback pairing of Taylor and Colloccini against Norwich. In addition Swansea's defense away from home seemingly is poor compared to when at home, they've conceded plenty on the road this season and with Demba Ba in a red hot form now you wouldn't bet against him scoring at least one in this game.
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Re: Paddy Power £500 Freebets Every Thursday at 19.00pm I made a new depoist with the code: freebets, said it was successful. Should I receive an email now or something?
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 146: Bolton v Aston Villa - LAY Bolton @ 2.60 +£0.19 Bet 147: Liverpool v QPR - LAY Liverpool @ 1.35 -£0.05 Bet 148: Man United v Wolves - LAY Man United @ 1.27 -£0.07 Bet 149: Norwich v Newcastle - LAY Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 +£0.19 Bet 150: West Brom v Wigan - BACK West Brom @ 1.72 -£0.19 New Bank: £10.16
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 145: Man City v Bayern Munich - LAY Man City @ 1.62 -£0.12 New Bank: £10.09 Don't have much time to post reasonig I'm afraid but here are my weekend bets: Bet 146: Bolton v Aston Villa - LAY Bolton @ 2.60 Bet 147: Liverpool v QPR - LAY Liverpool @ 1.35 Bet 148: Man United v Wolves - LAY Man United @ 1.27 Bet 149: Norwichv Newcastle - LAY Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 Bet 150: West Brom v Wigan - BACK West Brom @ 1.72
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Re: Denman retired. Pretty sad that he won't be running again but so many great memories, what a horse! The second Hennessey win was simply amazing, I fondly remember myself screaming him home as i'm sure many where that day. Happy Retirement The Tank!
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 7th December Already been discussed at length but I think Man City are far too short for the game against Bayern even with all the factors taking into account. Managed to lay Man City @ 1.62 myself on Betfair, available to lay currently @ 1.72 which is still on the short side in my view.
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 145: Man City v Bayern Munich - LAY Man City @ 1.62 I know Bayern have already qualified and Man City need a win to stand any chance of qualifiying but I don't think Bayern are just going to roll over and let Man City win. City are flying domestically but their Champions League campaign has been an unconvincing one, they scored a last minute winner at home to Villarreal and drew with Napoli at home. Overall then I think this price is far too short I'd have Man City more at around evens for this game.
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Managed to call the Chelsea game correctly tonight which sees me back into profit overall. Bet 143: Chelsea v Valencia - BACK Chelsea @ 1.77 +£0.19 Bet 144: Chelsea v Valencia - LAY Over 1.5 goals @ 4.1 +£0.11 New Bank: £10.21
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 137: Newcastle v Chelsea - LAY Chelsea @ 2.20 -£0.24 Bet 138: QPR v West Brom - LAY QPR @ 2.34 +£0.19 Bet 139: Tottenham v Bolton - BACK Tottenham @ 1.33 +£0.09 Bet 140: Wigan v Arsenal - LAY Arsenal @ 1.60 -£0.12 Bet 141: Aston Villa v Man United - LAY Man United @ 1.78 -£0.16 Bet 142: Wolves v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 3.15 +£0.19 New Bank: £9.91 ------------ Bet 143: Chelsea v Valencia - BACK Chelsea @ 1.77 Bet 144: Chelsea v Valencia - LAY Over 1.5 goals @ 4.1 Chelsea's form hasn't been upto their usually high standards you'd expect of a Chelsea side. Even their 3-0 victory against Newcastle this weekend wasn't exactly convincing. Although Champions League nights at the Bridge and Chelsea are usually very strong. The equation is simple a 0-0 draw or Chelsea win sends them through to the next round. Villas-Boas isn't the sort of manager to set a team for a 0-0 draw. Think Chelsea will prove to strong for Valencia in this game in what is a key match to decide how qualifies for the next round of the Champions League. In addition you have to fancy goals in this game for the simple fact that a goalless game is no good for Valencia and the fact Chelsea will come out attacking to try and win and secure their place in the next rounf.
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Re: England > Barclays Premier League > 3-5 December Think Wolves odds are too long (2.54 on Betfair) for their game against Sunderland today. Sunderland have appointed O'Neill but he won't actually be in charge for this game. Wolves haven't been that impressive this season but neither have Sunderland. Not that much difference in quality between two sides you'd say Sunderland have the edge but home advantage is always big and Wolves had a good home record last season and beat Wigan in their last home game. They'll surely see this has a big chance to get three points, Sunderland not the best of travellers and surely home win is clearly most likely result here.
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 136: Tottenham v PAOK - BACK Tottenham @ 1.52 -£0.38 New Bank: £9.96 --------------- Bet 137: Newcastle v Chelsea - LAY Chelsea @ 2.20 Bet 138: QPR v West Brom - LAY QPR @ 2.34 Bet 139: Tottenham v Bolton - BACK Tottenham @ 1.33 Bet 140: Wigan v Arsenal - LAY Arsenal @ 1.60 Bet 141: Aston Villa v Man United - LAY Man United @ 1.78 Bet 142: Wolves v Sunderland - LAY Sunderland @ 3.15
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Re: How many games before you know if you're a good or bad player? mmmm I've played 20 games over the course of a few weeks and I'm -$7.40 mainly buying into SNGs for $1.20. Guess I've got to play a lot more poker. Is time-consuming though and even then I feel if the endings of the SNGs I play evolve around luck largely.
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I do enjoy a game of poker but it isn't something I'd spend hours playing just to end up losing money. What I want to know is how many SNGs (what I currently play) would I have to play before I can get a good indication of whethe I'm going to be profitable in the long-term or not. Also is it a good idea to ply various different types of poker i.e. Cash, SNGs, Double-ups and Tournaments or simply stick to one game. My prefered style is tight-aggressive but sometimes I feel the blinds go up too quickly and it becomes a "crapshoot" at the end. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. By the way I'm not a complete newbie to Poker I've played for a very years but never seriously really.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Wednesday 30th November Tottenham v PAOK - BACK Tottenham @ 1.52 (Betfair) One for today and I fancy Tottenham to win in this game against PAOK tonight. Despite the large number of changes you've got to fancy Tottenham to win this and secure their progress into the next stage.
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Not Man City's best performance, but they took their chance when it came. Bet 135: Arsenal v Man City - LAY Arsenal @ 3.00 +£0.19 New Bank: £10.34 ---------- One for today and I fancy Tottenham to win in this "must-win" game against PAOK tonight. Despite the large number of changes you've got to fancy Tottenham to win this and progress into the next stage. Bet 136: Tottenham v PAOK - BACK Tottenham @ 1.52
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Re: How Far Can a Tenner Stretch? Bet 135: Arsenal v Man City - LAY Arsenal @ 3.00 After seeing the team news I couldn't help but LAY Arsenal here, their second string is no where near as good as City's in my opinion especially in the defensive department. Fancy City to win this but have got cover here if it goes to extra time.
Newcastle v Villa > Sun 5th feb
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Newcastle v Villa > Sun 5th feb Based on league positions alone you could probably make an arguement for back Newcastle here. But I'm happy to LAY Newcastle or BACK Aston Villa (+0.5) @ 1.80. Reason being I think there's not that much difference in quality between the sides and I think Villa are a more dangerous team away from home, don't have the pressure of the Villa Park ground also. Newcastle have been fantastic this season and have exceeded many people's pre-season expectations but I think there's been signs that the team's perforamance levels may be dropping. They won both against QPR at home and Blackburn away without being the best team in my opinion and the conceded five at Fulham in between that. Ba is back for Newcastle but may not be at full fitness after his Africian Cup of Nations campaign with Senegal. Overall Aston Villa have shown enough in recent away fixtures for me to think they've got a very good chance of coming away with something from this game especially with Keane & Bent appearing to link-up so well upfront for them.