Denman
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Posts posted by Denman
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 7th December FC Twente v Tottenham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 (188bet) 3/10 Suprised at the odds on offer for this selection, Tottenham aren't usually involved in many low-scoring games. All their five group games and two CL qualifiers have all gone over. The reverse game between these two finished 4-1 to Tottenham. Twente are maybe not such an attacking team but their previous two games at home in the CL have had goals (2-2 v Inter & 1-1 v Bremen). Whilst Twente can't qualify for the next round I'm sure they'll want to put in a good performance for the fans here also Tottenham need a win to make sure of top place and don't have any incentive to play for a draw or anything. So I expect a fairly open games as per usual for Tottenham really and I like the chances of this going overs, odds are definitley too long in my opinion here.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December Can't trust either of the English teams at the minute, Chelsea are on a blip currentley and with the group already secured they may choose to rest players with a big game at Tottenham to come at the end weekend. Whilst Arsenal have looked a little suspect at the Emirates this season, they are more than capable of winning 4 or 5-0, ect. but equally likely is a narrow win in my opinion.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 24th November
Got a bit lucky with this, Werder Bremen were rather poor and Tottenham should have won by more than the three goals in all honesty.Tottenham v Werder Bremen Under 3.5 goals @ 1.76 (188bet) 3/10 This bet probably goes against most people's logic as this does look likely to be a high-scoring game. But football can be odds sometimes and maybe you won't get as open a game as we expect. Remember in the reverse fixtures all the goals came early on and although chances continued to be created the goal threat diminished during the remainder of the match. Not often you see such high odds on under 3.5goals line, also Harry Redknapp isn't totally unfamiliar with setting his team to see out the game towards the later stages. He often brings Palacios with 15-20 mintues I can see this being the case again if Spurs are 1-0 or 2-0 up in the game. Also Van Der Vaat misses out, he's been Spurs main goal threat recentley although they do have plenty in the line-up who can score he has been the main man for goals for them. All that being said I expect goals I just hope for three or less, the price was just to good to turn down for me. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 24th November Tottenham v Werder Bremen Under 3.5 goals @ 1.76 (188bet) 3/10 This bet probably goes against most people's logic as this does look likely to be a high-scoring game. But football can be odds sometimes and maybe you won't get as open a game as we expect. Remember in the reverse fixtures all the goals came early on and although chances continued to be created the goal threat diminished during the remainder of the match. Not often you see such high odds on under 3.5goals line, also Harry Redknapp isn't totally unfamiliar with setting his team to see out the game towards the later stages. He often brings Palacios with 15-20 mintues I can see this being the case again if Spurs are 1-0 or 2-0 up in the game. Also Van Der Vaat misses out, he's been Spurs main goal threat recentley although they do have plenty in the line-up who can score he has been the main man for goals for them. All that being said I expect goals I just hope for three or less, the price was just to good to turn down for me.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 24th November I think Tottenham will win but can't have them at 1/2, don't know that much about Werder Bremen but the odds suggest they are at a similiar level to a mid-to-bottom Premier League side.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 4th November
I totally agree with you on this was expecting the price to be much lower. Hodgson as rested or rotated the squad as they say for these Europa League games. Liverpool's defence has been pretty strong in Europe this season as was shown in the reverse fixture to this, if that game is anything to go by I can't see there being many goals in this. Both Ladbrokes and 188bet go 4/5 on under 2.5 goals, i'll have some of that.I expect a weakend team from Liverpool tomorrow, With Jovanvic an Ngog being are only threat, Gerrard an Torres want be risked, cole's injured i doubt even Maxi will play, normally i would be ranting about Babel;) but i dont think will be playing hes got bruised ribs so thats another goal threat gone, also Hodgson never seems to give Pacheco a chance so i don't really no where the goals are gonna come from. Napoli are more than equipped to keep a clean sheet an Liverpool defence is relatively strong enough to hold Napoli at bay. I dont see this being high scoring game depending on the team sheet i will proberly go ahead with.. Liverpool v Napoli Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 Ladbrokes an @ 5/6 Betfair -
Re: UEFA > Champions League > Wednesday 3rd November I'm tempted on the price available on Arsenal but unsure whether to take it. Mainly because Arsenal don't need to go all out for the win in this one, a draw would do them fine and even a small loss wouldn't be the end of the world for them. That being said I've failed to be impressed by Shakhtar up against English opposition, Fulham knocked them out of the UEFA Cup last season remember and Arsenal spnaked them 5-1 at the Emirates. Overall think I'll leave the bet because there's not so a great motivation for Arsenal to go all out for the three points think they may uncharacteristically be happy to take the draw and play possession football in this one. As for the Chelsea game I'd be inclined to take Spartak Moscow on the handicap but again no bet because Chelsea are capable of scoring for fun when on top form (which they haven't really been in the last 2 games but still scored twice in both).
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Re: BOG-trotting with bet365 Amazing stuff slapdash, great to see your still going. I may have dreamt this up but didn't you post stats to level staking up at some point?
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Re: Quick System
Wohoooo :nana Nice winner today ralphie hopefully the poor run is now over. Inevitable your going to come across a poor patch every now and again, but fater all your still well in profit for the year with plenty of time to go yet.Current Winning Run = 2 -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 15th September
Arsenal's possible line-up: -------------Almunia------------- Sagna, Koscienly, Squillaci, Clichy --------- Song -- Denilson ------- -- Rosicky --- Fabregas --- Arshavin -------------- Chamak ------------- Arsenal have got plenty of good options despite their injury problems. Think Wenger may prefer Denilson to Wilshere tonight who's been playing in the Premier League. There's also other options with Nasri coming back from injury and Eboue who could play down the right to add more pace. Although I don't think pace is a problem for Arsenal they have it throughout the team and they'll look to Arshavin for width and the ball over the top with no Walcott playing. Chamak will be the lone striker I suspect, he's started brightly and looks a decent player to me. They also have Vela in reserve who can play upfront or out wide. Overall my pick was Arsenal win and I'm sticking by that, Arsenal usually dominate possession and take the match to their opposition, their defense can be suspect but I'd back Arsenal to out-score their opposition in this game.ARSENAL V.S. BRAGA
I will keep this short because i have lots of work at hand now. I am going for BRAGA +1.25 @ 2.025 ladbrokes because Braga has not conceded more than 2 goals since 22/02/10, against Porto. Arsenal on the other hand is missing Walcott which i think will be a huge factor beacuse without his penetration run on the right, they will lose alot alot alot of pace tonight. I think as long as Braga can keep it tight at the back, they should get at least a draw. Another problem Arsenal has is, who will be their striking option tonight? On nights like this, we can't rely on youngsters because Braga's style of play is always different from the English.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 15th September Just noticed the Chelsea team news, was thinking about this bet anyway but looks even better now with the news. Zilina v Chelsea Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 (StanJames) Most bookmakers have slashed their price on unders to around evens after the Chelsea team has been announced but Stan James still have a standout 2.20 available. Chelsea line-up: Cech, Ivanovic, Terry, Alex, Zhirkov, Essien, Benayoun, Mikel, Sturridge, Malouda, Anelka Chelsea's two potent goalscorers in Drogba and Lampard both miss out on this game. A large majority of Chelsea's goals are scored by these two players and thus Chelsea's attacking threat will be reduced with them missing. A.Cole is also not playing who is a very attacking full-back who is often involved in attacking play. Chelsea often play a tight some would say defensive manner of play away in Europe, In recent seasons they've had plenty of low-scoring games away which included 1-0 wins over Porto & APOEL whilst drawing 0-0 at Cluj and Olympiakos. Chelsea's defense has looked really strong so far this season and I expect that to continue in this game. Probably going to be a tough game for Chelsea but I expect them to win but it may only be by the one goal. Think under 2.5 goals is a good option here simply for the fact Chelsea are experienced in tricky away encounters like this one and know how to defend and control a game.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 15th September Arsenal v Sporting Braga Arsenal @ 1.34 (Pinnacle) I'm not usually a fan of taking short odds but I make an exception on this game. Arsenal have started the Premier League season strongly despite having plenty of injury problems. The likes of Van Perise, Diaby, Walcott and Vermelean will all be missing for this game, but despite these missing players they've got enough quality in their team to win this game. Arsenal can be sometimes guilty of missing chances, as was the case against Bolton at the weekend where they went in at half-time 1-1 when they had plenty of chances to score more goals. There seems to be a bit more resilience about Arsenal this year and they look like they are capable of digging results out even when not at their best. Both Clichy and Sagna were rested on Saturday and they should comeback in for this game and provide their usual attacking threat as they join in with play from their fullback positions. Cesc Fabregas was superb against Bolton and looks back to somewhere near full fitness after injury problems last season and his World Cup antics. New striker Chamak has also started the season well and will be looking here to open his tally in the Champions League for his new club. Arsenal have a superb record at home in general, but especially in the Champions Legaue group stage having only failed to win on one occassion (Fenerbache 0-0 in 2008) in their last nine CL group home games over the past three seasons. In last seasons competition they won five games on the bounce at home including against Porto in the last 16 before a draw with Barcelona ended their winning streak. Price has actually drifted from 1.30 which is what I took. Thought 1.30 was fair enough but the 1.34 looks even better. Arsenal should win this sort of game four times out of five in my opinion.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifying > 7th September
England win 3-1! :cheers England dominated the game, even more so than I would have anticipated. Price even drifted out to as big as evens in some places. If only we could play this well when it gets to the actual tournament proper.Switzerland v England England (-0.5) @ 1.91 (SBObet) Don't usually like betting on my own team (or nation in this case) But I feel that there's definite value to be had in England to win their game against Switzerland. England comfortably brushed past Bulgaria, who I'd rate a similiar level to Switzerland. England never really hit top gear but won the game with ease. The rigid 4-4-2 and the defense as always been a problem for England but with Joe Hart seemingly established as number one, we do now at least have a good last line of defense. Dawson picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in the game against Bulgaria, but Cahill stepped in well on his debut and is a very capable defender who could step in and do a good job. Attacking wise England looked fluid and dangerous, the likes of Milner, Walcott and A.Johnson add plenty of pace to the team and on the whole England looked well-balanced. I watched Switzerland's games at the World Cup, they were very impressive against Spain although understandably they were second best for large parts of the game but managed to defend fairly well and win the game 1-0. After that win you'd expect them to qualify from the group but they lost 1-0 against Chile and then put in a very dissapointing performance against Honduras in their last game which finished 0-0 and ended their World Cup. Switzerland are often involved in tight games and can be difficult to break-down but their home record over the years isn't exceptational by any means. They've drawn with the likes of Israel and Bulgaria whilst losing to Luxembourg in their last World Cup qualfying campaign. To conclude despite Switzerland's usual tough defense and England's injury problems I still think England have plenty of attacking options to cause the Swiss problems and on the whole England have the better quality and should be able to win here and maintain England's good qualifying record under Capello. -
Re: Euro 2012 Qualifying > 7th September
England team should be: ------------ Hart ------------ Johnson, Cahill, Jageilka, A.Cole Walcott, Gerrard, Barry, Milner ------- Rooney, Defoe ------- There has been doubts over Rooney playing after allegations over his private life. :eyes But Rooney travelled with squad which would seem to indicate that he'll be playing at least some part in the game.Any early team news for England and the swiss? Probable lineups etc? Early thoughts are that England love imposing their might on lesser teams in qualifying stages of tournaments and like to build alot of momentum and create an image of perfection before the tournament much like the Germans and Dutch tend to do. The main difference however is that England then dont square up very well to quality opposition with superior tactics. Therefore focussing on this game the Swiss should be another notch on England's belt IF england field a decent 11 AND dont park the bus like they did againt Spain :@ (bad memories) Are they likely to play this way or open up at home? Cheers :) -
Re: Euro 2012 Qualifying > 7th September Switzerland v England England (-0.5) @ 1.91 (SBObet) Don't usually like betting on my own team (or nation in this case) But I feel that there's definite value to be had in England to win their game against Switzerland. England comfortably brushed past Bulgaria, who I'd rate a similiar level to Switzerland. England never really hit top gear but won the game with ease. The rigid 4-4-2 and the defense as always been a problem for England but with Joe Hart seemingly established as number one, we do now at least have a good last line of defense. Dawson picked up what looked like a serious knee injury in the game against Bulgaria, but Cahill stepped in well on his debut and is a very capable defender who could step in and do a good job. Attacking wise England looked fluid and dangerous, the likes of Milner, Walcott and A.Johnson add plenty of pace to the team and on the whole England looked well-balanced. I watched Switzerland's games at the World Cup, they were very impressive against Spain although understandably they were second best for large parts of the game but managed to defend fairly well and win the game 1-0. After that win you'd expect them to qualify from the group but they lost 1-0 against Chile and then put in a very dissapointing performance against Honduras in their last game which finished 0-0 and ended their World Cup. Switzerland are often involved in tight games and can be difficult to break-down but their home record over the years isn't exceptational by any means. They've drawn with the likes of Israel and Bulgaria whilst losing to Luxembourg in their last World Cup qualfying campaign. To conclude despite Switzerland's usual tough defense and England's injury problems I still think England have plenty of attacking options to cause the Swiss problems and on the whole England have the better quality and should be able to win here and maintain England's good qualifying record under Capello.
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Re: Zico's Bundesliga Laying II Good luck, hopefully this season will be just as good (or maybe even better) for you than last season. :)
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Re: Quick System Managed to watch the racing and today's selections were two very cosy winners I must say, great work as always ralphie. :clap
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Re: Quick System You know your lucks in when you get a steward's decision in your favour. Think it was the correct decision though. ;)
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Re: Quick System 12/1 winner, sweet work as always ralphie. :ok
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Re: Applying Maria's staking plan to football? You should take a look at this: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f19/football-laying-89038/ It seemed to work okay for me. The only problem I could see was that football is very much only a weekly event whereas there's horse racing daily. I know there's lots of leagues worldwide, but I find you can only really specialise in a select number of leagues. I proved you can gain a small edge for laying selections although I think because football is only played weekly your not going to have many selecitons to lay and thus to make any meaningful profit you'd have to use big stakes.
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Re: Quick System
Yeah I saw it. That's always a danger when it is decided the horse should be held up at the back and produced late, espeicially if sticking to the inside rail. Just never got a space to run into you could argue that the jockey should have been more aware and swung the horse out wide to get a clear run but if a gap had appeared down the inside it would have won in my opinion.Don't know if anyone else managed to watch this race but if the horse wasn't held up behind a crowd I think it would have won this race easily. :cry Once again, thanks for your efforts Ralphie. Top man! :ok -
Re: Quick System
hello mate' date=' not that i like to doubt you but have you double checked Requisite?[/quote'] By my reckoning it is, and ralphie said he's already double checked it above. So I think it is. ;) -
Re: Following the F.L.W Welcome to the forum and good luck with this. But if you don't mind me asking what exactly is a "FLW" laying system?
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Re: Quick System Nice one Ralphie, today's winner makes the poor performance in May a distant memory. :clap
UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 7th December
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 7th December
Nice and easy this one. :clap