Denman
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Posts posted by Denman
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Re: Group D > Oct 3 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) Not doubt that Dortmund deserved to win but I'd still argue that Man City are the better team and you don't see such a big price on Man City very often. After all they played dreadful and still got a point. City particular seemed to suffer once Javi Garcia went off and Rodwell came on. Also Mancini experimenting with five at the back didn't work and in that period they really suffered. Disappointed that Tevez didn't play any part, far better option than Dzeko or Balotelli in my opinion. Man City do seem to suffer in Europe for whatever reason, for me I'd have thought their team was readily suited to European competition because of the way they play but it doesn't appear that way so far.
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Re: Group D > Oct 3 (Man City, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax) I've found how Man City have been priced up in the Champions League to be very interesting since their first involvement last season. They where quite frankly awful last season in this competition I thought, their record was 2 wins and 1 draw at home. But I remember the Napoli and Villarreal games and they where quite fortunate not to lose both games I recall. On the price front I remember them being priced up ridiculously short for both of those games. I was honestly expecting a similar situation this time round and expected Man City to be 4/5 maximum. Therefore imagine my surprise when I see Man City priced up at odds against here. Granted Man City haven't impressed that much in the league so far this season but it's still the same team that won the league last season and one that has a remarkably strong home record. I can't claim to have a great knowledge of Dortmund, but I did see their games against Arsenal in the Champions League last season. I thought they played fairly well in both games but ultimately ended up with only one point from the two games. On the Arsenal front I recall Man City being priced up at around 4/5 for that game, I recall this because I actually had backed against Man City on that occasion. Given that knowledge I can't see how Man City should be priced up at 2.22 (currently on Betfair) which suggest that Dortmund are a much tougher task than Arsenal and also indicates that Man City are only slightly the better team which I disagree with. Back Man City (2.22) or LAY Dortmund (3.75) would be my choices here.
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Re: Group H > Oct 2 (CFR Cluj, Galatasaray, Braga, Man Utd) Quite a popular pick but I do think over 2.5 goals is a good option here available at the evens on Betfair. Granted there's the risk with Man United's tendency to set-up more defensively in European away games. But with the firepower at Man United's disposal I find it difficult to see them not scoring here. Overall I think there's definitely more chance of it going over than unders here especially if you consider Man United's recent defensive record.
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Re: Villa v WBA 30th September 2012 At the prices I'd be tempted to side with Aston Villa here to be honest. I know West Brom have had a good start to the season and Aston Villa still look a team in transition under Lambert with a lot of new players in the squad. But all things considered I don't think there's a big difference between the two teams. You'd also have to think Aston Villa will take great confidence from their midweek win at Man City. In addition the Villa Park support seems very much behind new manager Lambert as oppose to the general discontent under McLeish. Over 2.5 goals available at Evens (Ladbrokes) also makes some appeal considering West Brom games always seem to have plenty of goals and Lambert never sets teams out defensively, only risk I suppose is that it terms into a scrappy game which can happen in derby style games.
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Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th The market for this game baffles me completely. For me Everton & Newcastle are two very closely match teams, granted you could say Newcastle over-achieved last season and perhaps you could make an argument for Everton being a slightly superior team. All things being considered I would price up Everton around evens for this game and find it odd that their odds have took such a massive plunge and are currently 1.63/1.64 on Betfair. I know Newcastle have some doubts over a few key players for them, but unless there are playing a reserve team I don't see how Everton are so short here against a Newcastle side even with a few players missing who I don't rate that far behind Everton to warrant such underdog status here.
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Re: England v Italy > June 24 For me this clearly the hardest quarter final to call and for me the two teams are very, very similar in quality. I'd actually price the game up as 35/30/35, making it an effective coin toss. Therefore England available at 2/1 would see a little bit of value in my opinion.
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Re: EURO 2012 - Outright Winner & Top Goalscorer
How I wish I had taken that bet' date=' in at 12/1 now[/quote'] Make that a firm favourite now, 3/1 in some places. It was between Dzagoev or Arshavin for me, needless to say I went with the wrong one. Not all over by any means yet but would have made a nice trade for anyone backing him at 208/1. -
Re: Denmark v Portugal - June 13 Can't say I was that impressed with either team based on their opening game. Denmark won 1-0 but in truth Holland should have been out of the sight in that game with the chances they had. As for Portugal they where extremely negative against Germany and only really created anything in the last ten minutes when Germany where sitting back on their lead. Overall I think I'd rather be taking Denmark (+0.5) at just over evens rather than be backing Portugal at odds on.
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Re: EURO 2012 - Outright Winner & Top Goalscorer My two penneth worth,mainly for fun but ultimately still value searching. Outright Winner For me and for many others I'm sure, the two stand out candidates are Spain & Germany. Both come into the campaign with 100% records during qualification. I lean towards favoring the Germans for the tournament, because I feel they have a more rounded team than the Spaniards and in my opinion Germany where the outstanding team in the last World Cup but came up narrowly short against Spain on that occasion. Always worth covering yourself with a potential dark house and I think Poland could be that in this tournament. Home advantage of course and as easy a group as they could have wished for. I expect them to qualify for the quarter-finals although I admit it would be something of a surprise to see them progress further, but by no means impossible and at their current odds worth a speculative punt. Recommended Bets: 2pts on Germany @ 4.5 (Betfair) 1/2pt on Poland @ 51 (Various) Top Goalscorer Again the top goalscorer market is always a bit of a lottery and I don't really think there's one outstanding candidate for it this year. Given that Germany will probably rotate Klose and Gomez in the lone-role upfront, Spain without their top striker in David Villa. Whilst both Van Persie & Ronaldo seem a bit short considering their countries are in the "Group of Death". Therefore I've just gone for a few more speculative punts, although should Germany go all the way I'd fancy one of my two German selections to be thereabouts for the Golden Boot. 1pt on Thomas Muller @ 34 (Betfair) 1pt on Lukas Podolski @ 38 (Betfair) 1pt on Andrei Arshavin @ 126 (Coral) 1pt on Wesley Sneijder @ 74 (Betfair) 1pt on Ztlan Ibrahimovic @ 51 (Various)
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Re: Chelsea v Blackburn > May 13 The players that are suspended for the CL final will all surely play in Terry, Ivanovic, Ramires & Raul Meireles. As well as Torres probably getting another start (Drogba being rested for the CL final I would imagine). Think the Chelsea price is too big here, this Blackburn side looks "gone" in their last few games. The away performance against Tottenham and their most recent home performance against Wigan where quite frankly shocking for a team supposedly fighting for their lives. Now relegated, a lot of the players with an eye on a move elsewhere won't want to be getting injured will surely not help their cause. I fully expected another gutless performance from Blackburn here, can see a repeat of the Chelsea v QPR game here. Take Chelsea to win and the (-1.5) and (-2.5) Asian handicaps would be my advice.
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Re: Wigan v Wolves > May 13
I'll happily lay you Wigan at 1.30 if you want. ;) Don't think Wigan really deserve to be odds on in a Premier League game ever. Given the circumstances I could understand it but I was thinking more the 1.80 range, current price is surely too short. Wolves held a much stronger side in Everton last weekend.You could put Wigan @ 1.30 here and they'd still be backable, as Wolves are just awful. If Martinez puts out a full strength side, you would have to think they are going to easily turn over Wolves and end the season on a high. Wigan's form of late has been that of a top 4 side never mind bottom 4 side. Wolves will do well not to get relegated in consecutive years if they don't get their act together. -
Re: Man United V Swansea > 6 May Think people are under-estimating Swansea here, Man United @ 1.19 really? There where around 1.40 against Everton the other week and for me there isn't really that much difference between Everton and Swansea's respective performances in the league this season. Swansea keep the ball well and could easily frustrate Man United here, they've got counter-attacking options as well against a Man United defense that as been vulnerable this season.
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Re: Arsenal v Norwich > 5 May I've laid Arsenal @ 1.24 (Betfair) because I think it's simply too short here. True Arsenal's form has picked up towards the end of the season but the last few games they've not been in quite the same brilliant form that took them to 3rd in the league. With Arteta and Walcott both missing it may not be the goal fest that most people expect. Arteta being Arsenal's main creativity force in the centre and Walcott if not directly being involved in the game does at least stretch the play and give Arsenal players more time on the ball. With thoose two players missing it puts the goal burden heavily on Van Persie, although goals hasn't been a problem for him all season you obviously prefer a team that has multiple goal threats. I've also taken the Norwich (+2) @ 2.075 with (Bet 365) as cover and for my original bet.
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Re: Chelsea v Newcastle > 2 May Great call TP, shame I never went with through laying Chelsea after stating they where under-priced.
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Re: Chelsea v Newcastle > 2 May I got 1.48 on Chelsea to beat QPR, I don't see how they can be priced up at just a fraction above the price at around 1.55 for this game against a far superior side in Newcastle. Think they where over-priced in the last game and are perhaps slightly under-priced in this game. Although Newcastle have come unstuck against all the big teams away this season, bar a largely undeserved point at Old Trafford. Given how Chelsea have impressed recently can't bring myself to lay them here, but I certainly wouldn't be backing them at the current price against a team who is actually above them in the table.
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Re: Mark Lawrenson's Premier League Predictions for Matchday 36 I can only really agree with how bad a pundit Lawro is, his league table of predictions are hilariously wrong. Man United would have gone all season unbeaten and Wolves are comfortably mid-table. :lol
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Semi-Final 2nd Leg > Tuesday 24 April
They looked flat at Chelsea? They controlled the game and should of scored at least two. I don't think they looked flat against Madrid' date=' they just came up against a very good team. I will admit though that their lack of efforts on goal in the second half against Real was quite poor, by Barca standards, anyway.[/quote'] They had a couple of golden chances true, but they didn't look quite the same to me. They seemed content to pass the ball around and not really probe the Chelsea defense that much. I know Real Madrid are a good team as well, but at home you'd have expected Barca to win but they didn't Real Madrid played perfectly against them on the break and in all truth Barcelona created very little in terms of chances in that game, especially in the second half as you mention. No doubting this Barcelona team is a superb side but given their last two games and the ridiculously short price. They are definitely worth opposing in my opinion. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Semi-Final 2nd Leg > Tuesday 24 April Think Barcelona are too short once again, think the value is in backing Chelsea to qualify. One goal from the visitors means Barcelona would have to score three. They are of course very capable of that but I haven't been impressed with Barcelona in their last two games, they've looked surprisingly flat for some strange reason. Chelsea will have to be at the top of their game to restrict Barcelona but think they are capable of doing an "Inter Milan" on them.
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Re: Fulham v Wigan - April 21st I know everything is relative but if you had the option of backing Fulham at home to Wigan at the current price around three or four weeks ago, most people would probably have said massive value on Fulham. My take on things is that teams go through good form and bad form throughout the season but for the large part there's still the underlying quality of each team. For me Fulham have much better quality in all departments add in the fact that playing at home is major plus for Fulham, they never seen quite the same team away from home. I don't deny that Wigan have had some fantastic results lately but then again I don't forget their early season form. Wigan play decent football but still lack that reliant goalscorer upfront to put away any chances they do create. In Pogrebnyak & in particularly with Dempesy, you know Fulham have goals in them. For all the reasons just mentioned the current price on Fulham win(1.93 on Betfair) is a steal in my opinion.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Semi-Final 1st Leg > Wednesday 18 April Barcelona are never quite the same team away from the Camp Nou in my opinion. They only managed a draw in the last round against AC Milan, who I don't rate the differently in quality to this Chelsea side. Chelsea have had a strange season but under Di Matteo they seem to have returned to the Chelsea of old capable of grinding results out. Barcelona would probably happily take a draw here with the second leg to come. Barcelona obviously the better team here but I feel Chelsea are capable of putting up a good fight. My only worry would be Chelsea's defensive worries with Cahill & Luiz both picking up injuries on Sunday. But with it being such a big game I suspect at least one them will be deemed fit to partner Terry at the back. My bet therefore would to lay Barcelona (currently 1.76 available to lay) or back Chelsea (+0.5).
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 15 March Terrible, terrible odds on the English teams, as is the odds on overs goal markets in thoose game
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Re: Bet365 £50 "In Play" Free Bet - Chelsea v Napoli - Existing Customers too!
Corrected. Thanks for this didn't see this offer.Simply place up to a £50 bet on the match before kick off' date= then your place your free bet matching the initial bet and if it loses,
Bet365will refund that amount within 2 hours after the match.
Example:
Bet £50 Chelsea to win the match before kick off. Bet £50 Torres next goal "In Play" and when that bet loses,
Bet365 will refund that amount within 2 hours after the match. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 14 February Lyon v APOEL - Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 (Coral) Hard to see APOEL doing anything other than parking the bus in this game. Caught quite a lot of their group games and they sure know how to defend. Three draws away from home in the group stage against some decent European opposition. Think they'll happily try and keep the game tight and play on the counter-attack. Don't see many situations where APOEL's style of play will change, they'd probably even settle for a 1-0 defeat with the second leg to come. Give unders a near on 60% of happening here, hence the 4/5 with Coral looks excellent value to me.
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Re: Liverpool v Spurs > Mon 6th feb Liverpool odds shortening, got to be a clear lay at evens now surely. Tottenham may be missing a few players but all their three most important players in my opinion in King, Modric & Bale should all be playing. Tottenham have played at much superior level to Liverpool that season and I can only think that Liverpool's recent form and return of Suarez has influenced the odds here. Don't forgot Tottenham went to Man City and only narrowly loss in a game they could have easily won. Overall in my view there's more than a 50% chance that Tottenham get at least a point from this game and therefore backing Tottenham (+0.5) at Evens with Bet 365 is my pick for this game.
Southampton v Fulham > Sun 7 October
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Re: Southampton v Fulham > Sun 7 October I'm tempted to go against the general opinion here and LAY Southampton, especially since their odds are now at 2.60 which I think it too short. I'd honestly have this game priced up with Southampton has slight favourites but now they are clear favourites. I know Fulham have very poor away form for many years now but they are capable of putting in decent away performances and they are still not an easy team to beat. Confidence has to be taken from the win against Wigan away and also a decent performance at Old Trafford in defeat. I do like the look of this Southampton team going forward but in defense they look awful at times and even with Fulham's missing strikers I still think there's a good chance they'll score. Home advantage is a funny thing especially for such a strong home team like Fulham if this was at Craven Cottage I'm sure Fulham would be priced up as strong favourites and well and truly odds on.