Trotter

+298.55
Something a bit different 
Hay 3.50 - Tip Top Mountain 17/2
Hay 5.00 - Good Work 4/1
Prices wm hill
£10 EW double
(these are 5/6 runner races so my horses will have to finish in the first two for EW)

ITV will now show the 1.50 and 2.25 after Musselburgh was abandoned

just noticed from your list that Chipstead is running tomorrow ....... Newc 3.35

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.
I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.
So my revised method is :-
 
1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.
2. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.
 
4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.
5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.
6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.
 
This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-
1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 
2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 
3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.
4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 
5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.
6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.
7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.
8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.
9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.
10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.
11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.
12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).
13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.
 
A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.
 
 
 

I can see the point more in knocking out the slow races. I guess the faster races are probably run at a truer pace whereas the slower races might just be dawdling or excessive holding up or no-one wants to front run and therefore more likely to produce false times or times that reflect something other than the conditions

+338.55
Time running out in my attempt to get 3 winners in a Trixie ....... had 2 a few times and been denied the 3rd in photo finishes twice ....... time to try some short priced and odds on favourites 
2.32 Fon - Copper Cove 11/8
3.42 Fon - In D'Or 4/5
4.30 Wet - Imperial Alex 8/11
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

+338.55
Time running out in my attempt to get 3 winners in a Trixie ....... had 2 a few times and been denied the 3rd in photo finishes twice ....... time to try some short priced and odds on favourites 
2.32 Fon - Copper Cove 11/8
3.42 Fon - In D'Or 4/5
4.30 Wet - Imperial Alex 8/11
prices skybet
£5 Trixie
 

winning double - today +24.69
month + 378.55

+358.55
Kemp
7.00 - Mount Athos 6/5
7.30 - Rey Da La Batalla 6/1
8.00 - Two Past Eight 4/1
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

+378.55
New 2.35 - Polisud 10/11
New 3.35 - Hello Judge Evs
Tau 4.20 - Celtic Art 9/4
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

winning double - today +24.69
month + 378.55

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

winning double - today +24.69
month + 378.55

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

I can see the point more in knocking out the slow races. I guess the faster races are probably run at a truer pace whereas the slower races might just be dawdling or excessive holding up or no-one wants to front run and therefore more likely to produce false times or times that reflect something other than the conditions

I've tried all those in the past ..... with the exception of number 5 (but I can see the point of it)
In some ways I don't think it matters as long as you use the same method consistently. Where I have changed tends to be at the start of a new AW winter season where I decide to do something different this time round
At the moment I'm happy with my method of only using handicaps. I'm using RP Standard Times which measure something like 'a rating that a 100 rated horse carrying 9 stone should achieve over a mile on good ground'
As you look at a handicap race you can quickly see what a horse carrying 9 stone would be rated. Let's say it's 88....... you'd expect it run 12 lbs or 4 lengths slower than RP Standard. If it runs 18lbs or 6 lengths slower then the going allowance for that race is 'Slow 6lbs or Slow 2 lengths' ........ I use lengths
then you can average out the going allowances for the qualifying races or strike out the fastest and slowest etc to get your average for the meeting ....... which you can then apply to all the races
so I think my method takes account of the class of horses running at the meeting
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

Some sad news over the weekend that popular sprinter Highfield Princess had to be put down after an accident in her stable
Believed by some to be the most improved horse ever ...... she started off in class 6 handicaps and worked her way through the ranks to win four group one races including an Abbeye and a Nunthorpe
Reminiscent of another great sprint mare that older readers will remember .... Lochsong, who trod a similar path
Here's Highfield Princess winning the Nunthorpe in 2022 .......
 

+353.86
Exe 3.50 - Pirates Tale 5/2
Exe 4.20 - Bampton Star 13/8
Hunt 4.35 - Samuel Spade 2/1
prices skybet
£5 Trixie

Leipzig to win at 1.50
22 Points
cheers !

One problem if you really want to get obsessive about compiling your own figures is course configuration in the sense that courses might have variable going on different parts of the track. If you think about a large tract of land out in the country with dips and hollows and undulations it's evident that water will gather in the lower lying parts of the track ........ and the going will be softer there. So for example there might be a marked going difference between the round course which goes out into the country and a straight track........ and many race courses have both round and straight tracks
Very difficult to assess this with a small sample size of maybe 3 races on the straight and 3 on the round at a particular meeting
That's one advantage of AW racing ....... the tracks are flat (Ling has a bit of undulation) so the 'going' tends to be uniform across all distances
 

I try to mitigate the problem by only taking my going allowance from handicap races where I know the rough level of ability of the horses in the race. I work out in advance what rating horses of this class should achieve, compare this to what they actually achieve, strike out the fastest and slowest and use the average of the others as my going allowance
Although I'm not going to bother with UK Turf Racing (too much!) I did rate Donny on Saturday 
I had the expected figure for the 4 handicaps in time order, the actual figure and the difference
91- 42 - slow 49
99 - 54 - slow 45
85 - 28 - slow 57
85 - 31 - slow 54
these are all within the same ballpark which suggests they might be reasonable !
I strike out the 45 and the 57 and average the other 2 to give my final figure of Slow 52
So the Lincoln winner gets 54 plus 52 = 106