ThunderDan9
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Posts posted by ThunderDan9
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In the evening I like once again the first match, Doets as a 2,37 underdog again De Sousa. I think that in a first round short match, it should be closer to evens.
- Fader, daveg and alexcaruso808
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I managed to get a net profit of exactly ZERO with my four picks, and I'm even very lucky with that... the classic mistake: I should have gone with only one pick, THE strongest hunch.
All three of the losses were pretty pathetic performances... I mean, a 68 (!) average (Kist) at this level?!?
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In the afternoon session, I like:
Szaganski vs White 2,10
De Decker vs Vandenbogarde 1,67
Kist vs Pietreczko 2,38
Jim Williams vs VDB 1,91 (although... maybe not, in general this would be a silly price... but VDB (almost like DVD) is so bad nowadays...)
I think I like the fitst one the most. Szaganski showed great form on the last PC events.
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It starts tomorrow, the last event before the World Championship.
My first thought was of course Ross Smith, but he is in that Price/MVG quarter... the fourth quarter looks to be the most "favorable" to be in at first glance... maybe Heta? If Humphries doesn't win everything (but he does, lol), Searle would actually make some sense... he hit that 9-darter at the Grand Slam, and then was eliminated by... Humphries. And in the second quarter, Gurney looks to have a relatively nice draw... he has good stats, but hasn't won anything in ages... maybe now?
With the longer format from the third round on, the chances of a longshot winner are not that good... I was thinking about Kist, just on the vague assumption he could somehow recreate that form he had in that short spell... he has been useless since then though...
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Actually, I kind of like all the underdogs tonight... OK, let me be more precise: I won't bet on any of the favorites.
I'm on Noppert on the outright, and it is a bit surprising to see him as a dog against Bunting... but on second look it might be correct having seen their autumn form. Still, I might pick Noppert at this odds, if I wasn't on his (quite slim) outright chances.
The one I like the most is Buntz to beat Gilding at 2,75. I mean, Gilding as a 1,44 fav in a major seems odd... and Buntz hasn't played worse than him in this tournament... even with the longer format, Buntz might win, I think.
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At first glance I thought Searle's odds are too high... but then again, it's a long format game, and there is nothing wrong with Humphries's form... I don't EVER trust Ratajski... 😀 Price-Anderson should be a cracker... who knows... Dobey-Wade... who knows... I think I sit this one out, and just enjoy the games. Good luck with your picks.
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39 minutes ago, daveg said:
Frustratingly, Humphries missed two darts to win 5-0 - but at least the 7/2 shot came in.
Great pick, with the acca, it came in surprisingly easy! And I was watching the Humphries match, I was so sure of the 5-0, he was so close... DVD really needs some rest or therapy on his shoulder.
As for tonight... can Greaves once again win? Her oods look a bit too high to me after those two rounds. And poor Chizzy already eliminated (while Buntz (!) already qualified)...
With the pressure off, Chizzy should win on paper, but who knows in a meaningless match... at least Buntz has the motivation to win the group... so the odds don't seem right to me.
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Nothing really screams at me as an outright winner... I totally agree with daveg that probably Price or Humphries are going to win it... and even though Michael Smith is not in good form, he is still a danger in the top half of the draw, Anderson, Dobey and Wade are all there too...
So maybe we should try someone from the seemingly less stacked bottom half. Chizzy is my favorite player, and I kind agree with Fader's pick, but I wouldn't be shocked if he even goes out in the group phase... it's all mental, can he bring that ET&PC form to a major or does he crumble again? Maybe the group phase format might help him actually, as if he survives he already has three games under his belt...
Aspinall is a strange one this year... he has terrible form in lesser events, but raises his game in the majors, big time. He is for sure a contender, but I don't trust him. And he is in a very tricky group, maybe the trickiest one.
So in the end I went with Chizzy and then Noppert at 40. I think Noppert has a nice draw, he should easily qualify from his group and then he faces one of Wright/Chizzy/Bunting if I'm not mistaken... I liked his game in the EC, and he might have a chance in a bottom half that seems to be quite open.
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OK, I'm going with Pietreczko at 3,50... it' the same odds he had in the SF of the last ET... where he won 7-6 against MVG (at the same venue as tonight), then he went on to win that ET tournament, then beating Ross Smith here in the first round... betting on the home dog at such odds is a bet I have to take, and I won't regret it even if MVG happens to easily win this time.
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I don't really like this tournament outright-wise... I think we will have a short-priced winner this time, one of the Top3, most probably Humphries. I reckon he is "the best" player in the world right now, so I agree with Fader's main pick.
The problem with some of those higher priced "in form" contenders is the tricky FIRST ROUND. While the top guns face relatively weak players in the first round, Dobey vs Chisnall, Ross Smith vs Pietreczko, even Cross vs VDB (!) could be VERY tricky... I mean, who knows which version of Chisnall or VDB turns up... AND remember: the first round is only a best of 11, so the short format makes the first round even more random. I could very much see any of Dobey, Ross Smith, Cross make a very deep run, maybe a best of 19 format suits their form even more - IF they survive the first round.
Schindler-Bunting in the first round seems like another coin flip to me.
I think I will go with Humphries, and then Dobey and Ross Smith.
ALso: great writeup, Daveg!
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Manchester City
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Wonderful job by both of you! Congrats!
I wonder though... why hasn't been Joyce's career more successful? He can REALLY play, when he is "on".
Players Championship Finals
in Darts Predictions
Posted
Fantastic job, Fader!
And all your outrights won too.