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Hit 1st, Fell 2nd

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    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from The Equaliser in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    You are right to dread how long it would take to watch the relevant races. It is very time consuming but it is the only way i know how. But then again, i do it for a living so i am not tied down to other things. 
    Reading the markets is a lot harder these days than many years ago. A lot of so called "moves" these days are actually price corrections due to the inability of most firms to price a race up. I dont know how many professional tissue men are still around these days but there cant be any more than two or three.  If you go on Oddschecker now and pick any race you will see plenty of horses with their prices in blue. Up to six or seven in some races. But of course, that doesnt mean there are six or seven "gambles". Its just that the price was wrong in the first place and is now righting itself.  Similarly, there is plenty of ones in pink who were put in too low and are now drifting. and many people see this and say drifters never win. But if a genuine 7/2 chance has been put in at 2/1, it is obviously going to drift and will more than likely end up at where it should have been in the first place. And in reality, its not actually a "drifter".
    Good luck
  2. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from EviL ZippY in Racing Chat - Monday June 3rd   
    No time to bore you all with a thousand word essay about tomorrows racing. That said, i think it would only take a couple of words actually. "Pretty moderate" !!
    The only race that interested me was the Thirsk 4.15 and i thought Ingleby Hollow had to go really close. There is some 6/1 around and looks an each way bet to nothing. I wasnt fussed on the fav, Francophilia, and put her in at 3's and would not be surprised to see her go even bigger. It was a poor race she won at Lingfield last time out and she is up 5lb for her troubles and up in grade. It was also a terrible maiden that Glorious Dane won here last time out and he doesnt appeal either. But i do think we will see an improved run from Be Perfect and his winning turn isnt far away.
  3. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Monday June 3rd   
    No time to bore you all with a thousand word essay about tomorrows racing. That said, i think it would only take a couple of words actually. "Pretty moderate" !!
    The only race that interested me was the Thirsk 4.15 and i thought Ingleby Hollow had to go really close. There is some 6/1 around and looks an each way bet to nothing. I wasnt fussed on the fav, Francophilia, and put her in at 3's and would not be surprised to see her go even bigger. It was a poor race she won at Lingfield last time out and she is up 5lb for her troubles and up in grade. It was also a terrible maiden that Glorious Dane won here last time out and he doesnt appeal either. But i do think we will see an improved run from Be Perfect and his winning turn isnt far away.
  4. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Saturday 1st June (Derby Day)   
    Bearing in mind that i tend to steer away from the competitive races at big meetings and much prefer to search the smaller races for a winner i thought it was an apt title. I am indebted to Thomas Hardy for the title and would have asked his permission but seeing as he died in 1928 that was a bit of a non starter.  As we all know, a 10/1 winner at Hexham pays the same as a 10/1 winner at Royal Ascot. But probably a lot easier to find. Tomorrow for instance, i gave Epsom's card a whole 40 seconds of my time and that was that.
    I had a look at four races spread out over Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham and i've found one which must go really well and will give anyone who backs it a run for their money.
    At Worcester in the first i narrowed it down to three but no money will be changing hands here. If forced into a bet it would be Shoal Bay who definitely needs to go this way round after his shenanigans at Kempton last time out. This lad won his first two racecourse starts in 2017 before finishing fourth at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle won by Western Ryder. In front of him in third that day was Summerville Boy who we all know went on to win the "Supreme" the following March. Shoal Bay was only 3L behind that day and was trying to concede 6lb. He actually ran in the Supreme but was pulled up. This is not a great race and one that a horse of his ability should be winning but i wont be having a bet.
    In the next at Worcester i would much rather look for an each way option than take the odds on about the fav, Alltimegold. This one may well win but "may" doesnt mean it will. Its only six weeks ago that it failed to give Duhallowcountry a stone at Newcastle and if i had a new pair of trainers i reckon i could give Duhallowcountry a stone and a beating. He was off 87 that day, 113 tomorrow, and with such a big weight i would definitely be looking elsewhere. Flints Legacy and Zoltan Varga would be two with obvious each way claims.
    In the last at Hexham it rests between the top five and thats about as much as i gleaned. For a pick i would go for recent Cartmel winner, Chocolat Noir.
    But the last at Musselburgh was the race that interested me most. Its a lady riders race with both professional and amateurs taking part. Josie Gordon has got a mount, and so has Hayley and also Megan Nicholls. But i reckon none of them will win it and i am very sweet on Baydar. I know its last formline doesnt read very well but the horse was bang in contention half a mile out before clearly failing to get home and the jockey, Sean Davis, wisely let it coast home and it trotted the last two furlongs. Soft ground does suit this horse and the drop back in trip to its ideal distance will bring about a much improved run. Lets not forget that this horse was rated 105 at his peak and has won off 99. He ran two excellent races in defeat last season when third to Arrowtown at York in October trying to concede a pound to that horse who was in excellent form at the time and was notching a hat trick. Baydar was also a fast finishing second to Ravenous at Chester in September when beaten only a head and was trying to give the winner 19lb on that occasion. He was running off marks of 88 and 89 those days and this mark of 73 is the lowest he has ever raced off. Joanna Mason takes another 5lb off and we all know this lass can ride. She actually won a sprint at Redcar the other day and i think she may well have two winners this week.
    Views anyone ?
  5. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from BillyHills in Racing Chat - Thursday May 30th   
    Thank you Billy.
    Most days there will be no selections but plenty to read and digest and hopefully can be put to some good use.
    I was disappointed by Sandown but good luck if you get involved.
     
    How's that ? ?
  6. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Wednesday May 29th   
    Hello all,
    A newbie here. 
    I've just been looking through tomorrows card at Cartmel and had 40 mins on the 6.45.  To break my posting duck on here i'll have a quick run through the field.
    A red line went through My Rennaissance (1st run back after a wind op and off since Nov), Brother Scott (tailed on reappearence last time out and surely wants further than this even though he is a two times course winner), Gris Du Pron (showing nothing), Jokers And Rogues (still 5lb higher than his Sedgefield win January and trip here is a worry even with first time blinkers) and Carlingford Prince (off since tailed at Ayr in February but drop back in trip might help with some improvement).
    That leaves Zolfo who has first time cheekpieces on. He is still 9lb higher than his last win even though he hasnt won for a year. The drop back in trip from last time should help but he definitely wouldnt want any more rain.
    Secret Melody didnt exactly set the world alight on his chase debut last time out at Warwick but has a chance in a bad race. He ran an ok fourth in a Doncaster hurdle race in January so at least he has some ability.
    Ringarosie is up 6lb for her Sedgefield win last time out and will have conditions to suit. She looked a bit of a non stayer in her early days but has dispelled that theory now. She will carry a lightweight of 9st 11lb and with the stable having a winner here yesterday she should definitely not be discounted.
    And that leaves Olivers Gold who has finished second in his last four starts. He hasnt won a race for over a year and now finds himself on a 16lb lower mark than that day. Conditions are ideal for this horse who does go well round here. His chase form figures at Cartmel read 12323 and he also gets on really well with his jock, Emma Todd. She has ridden him to his last three chase victories and they may well team up for win number four.
    I am drawn between the top and bottom horses but i'm going to give the race a miss. 
    Comments, remarks, picks etc most welcome. 
  7. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Wednesday May 29th   
    Hello all,
    A newbie here. 
    I've just been looking through tomorrows card at Cartmel and had 40 mins on the 6.45.  To break my posting duck on here i'll have a quick run through the field.
    A red line went through My Rennaissance (1st run back after a wind op and off since Nov), Brother Scott (tailed on reappearence last time out and surely wants further than this even though he is a two times course winner), Gris Du Pron (showing nothing), Jokers And Rogues (still 5lb higher than his Sedgefield win January and trip here is a worry even with first time blinkers) and Carlingford Prince (off since tailed at Ayr in February but drop back in trip might help with some improvement).
    That leaves Zolfo who has first time cheekpieces on. He is still 9lb higher than his last win even though he hasnt won for a year. The drop back in trip from last time should help but he definitely wouldnt want any more rain.
    Secret Melody didnt exactly set the world alight on his chase debut last time out at Warwick but has a chance in a bad race. He ran an ok fourth in a Doncaster hurdle race in January so at least he has some ability.
    Ringarosie is up 6lb for her Sedgefield win last time out and will have conditions to suit. She looked a bit of a non stayer in her early days but has dispelled that theory now. She will carry a lightweight of 9st 11lb and with the stable having a winner here yesterday she should definitely not be discounted.
    And that leaves Olivers Gold who has finished second in his last four starts. He hasnt won a race for over a year and now finds himself on a 16lb lower mark than that day. Conditions are ideal for this horse who does go well round here. His chase form figures at Cartmel read 12323 and he also gets on really well with his jock, Emma Todd. She has ridden him to his last three chase victories and they may well team up for win number four.
    I am drawn between the top and bottom horses but i'm going to give the race a miss. 
    Comments, remarks, picks etc most welcome. 
  8. Like
    Hit 1st, Fell 2nd got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Wednesday May 29th   
    Hello all,
    A newbie here. 
    I've just been looking through tomorrows card at Cartmel and had 40 mins on the 6.45.  To break my posting duck on here i'll have a quick run through the field.
    A red line went through My Rennaissance (1st run back after a wind op and off since Nov), Brother Scott (tailed on reappearence last time out and surely wants further than this even though he is a two times course winner), Gris Du Pron (showing nothing), Jokers And Rogues (still 5lb higher than his Sedgefield win January and trip here is a worry even with first time blinkers) and Carlingford Prince (off since tailed at Ayr in February but drop back in trip might help with some improvement).
    That leaves Zolfo who has first time cheekpieces on. He is still 9lb higher than his last win even though he hasnt won for a year. The drop back in trip from last time should help but he definitely wouldnt want any more rain.
    Secret Melody didnt exactly set the world alight on his chase debut last time out at Warwick but has a chance in a bad race. He ran an ok fourth in a Doncaster hurdle race in January so at least he has some ability.
    Ringarosie is up 6lb for her Sedgefield win last time out and will have conditions to suit. She looked a bit of a non stayer in her early days but has dispelled that theory now. She will carry a lightweight of 9st 11lb and with the stable having a winner here yesterday she should definitely not be discounted.
    And that leaves Olivers Gold who has finished second in his last four starts. He hasnt won a race for over a year and now finds himself on a 16lb lower mark than that day. Conditions are ideal for this horse who does go well round here. His chase form figures at Cartmel read 12323 and he also gets on really well with his jock, Emma Todd. She has ridden him to his last three chase victories and they may well team up for win number four.
    I am drawn between the top and bottom horses but i'm going to give the race a miss. 
    Comments, remarks, picks etc most welcome. 
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