Hit 1st, Fell 2nd Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Bearing in mind that i tend to steer away from the competitive races at big meetings and much prefer to search the smaller races for a winner i thought it was an apt title. I am indebted to Thomas Hardy for the title and would have asked his permission but seeing as he died in 1928 that was a bit of a non starter. As we all know, a 10/1 winner at Hexham pays the same as a 10/1 winner at Royal Ascot. But probably a lot easier to find. Tomorrow for instance, i gave Epsom's card a whole 40 seconds of my time and that was that. I had a look at four races spread out over Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham and i've found one which must go really well and will give anyone who backs it a run for their money. At Worcester in the first i narrowed it down to three but no money will be changing hands here. If forced into a bet it would be Shoal Bay who definitely needs to go this way round after his shenanigans at Kempton last time out. This lad won his first two racecourse starts in 2017 before finishing fourth at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle won by Western Ryder. In front of him in third that day was Summerville Boy who we all know went on to win the "Supreme" the following March. Shoal Bay was only 3L behind that day and was trying to concede 6lb. He actually ran in the Supreme but was pulled up. This is not a great race and one that a horse of his ability should be winning but i wont be having a bet. In the next at Worcester i would much rather look for an each way option than take the odds on about the fav, Alltimegold. This one may well win but "may" doesnt mean it will. Its only six weeks ago that it failed to give Duhallowcountry a stone at Newcastle and if i had a new pair of trainers i reckon i could give Duhallowcountry a stone and a beating. He was off 87 that day, 113 tomorrow, and with such a big weight i would definitely be looking elsewhere. Flints Legacy and Zoltan Varga would be two with obvious each way claims. In the last at Hexham it rests between the top five and thats about as much as i gleaned. For a pick i would go for recent Cartmel winner, Chocolat Noir. But the last at Musselburgh was the race that interested me most. Its a lady riders race with both professional and amateurs taking part. Josie Gordon has got a mount, and so has Hayley and also Megan Nicholls. But i reckon none of them will win it and i am very sweet on Baydar. I know its last formline doesnt read very well but the horse was bang in contention half a mile out before clearly failing to get home and the jockey, Sean Davis, wisely let it coast home and it trotted the last two furlongs. Soft ground does suit this horse and the drop back in trip to its ideal distance will bring about a much improved run. Lets not forget that this horse was rated 105 at his peak and has won off 99. He ran two excellent races in defeat last season when third to Arrowtown at York in October trying to concede a pound to that horse who was in excellent form at the time and was notching a hat trick. Baydar was also a fast finishing second to Ravenous at Chester in September when beaten only a head and was trying to give the winner 19lb on that occasion. He was running off marks of 88 and 89 those days and this mark of 73 is the lowest he has ever raced off. Joanna Mason takes another 5lb off and we all know this lass can ride. She actually won a sprint at Redcar the other day and i think she may well have two winners this week. Views anyone ? yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 36 minutes ago, Hit 1st, Fell 2nd said: Bearing in mind that i tend to steer away from the competitive races at big meetings and much prefer to search the smaller races for a winner i thought it was an apt title. I am indebted to Thomas Hardy for the title and would have asked his permission but seeing as he died in 1928 that was a bit of a non starter. As we all know, a 10/1 winner at Hexham pays the same as a 10/1 winner at Royal Ascot. But probably a lot easier to find. Tomorrow for instance, i gave Epsom's card a whole 40 seconds of my time and that was that. I had a look at four races spread out over Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham and i've found one which must go really well and will give anyone who backs it a run for their money. At Worcester in the first i narrowed it down to three but no money will be changing hands here. If forced into a bet it would be Shoal Bay who definitely needs to go this way round after his shenanigans at Kempton last time out. This lad won his first two racecourse starts in 2017 before finishing fourth at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle won by Western Ryder. In front of him in third that day was Summerville Boy who we all know went on to win the "Supreme" the following March. Shoal Bay was only 3L behind that day and was trying to concede 6lb. He actually ran in the Supreme but was pulled up. This is not a great race and one that a horse of his ability should be winning but i wont be having a bet. In the next at Worcester i would much rather look for an each way option than take the odds on about the fav, Alltimegold. This one may well win but "may" doesnt mean it will. Its only six weeks ago that it failed to give Duhallowcountry a stone at Newcastle and if i had a new pair of trainers i reckon i could give Duhallowcountry a stone and a beating. He was off 87 that day, 113 tomorrow, and with such a big weight i would definitely be looking elsewhere. Flints Legacy and Zoltan Varga would be two with obvious each way claims. In the last at Hexham it rests between the top five and thats about as much as i gleaned. For a pick i would go for recent Cartmel winner, Chocolat Noir. But the last at Musselburgh was the race that interested me most. Its a lady riders race with both professional and amateurs taking part. Josie Gordon has got a mount, and so has Hayley and also Megan Nicholls. But i reckon none of them will win it and i am very sweet on Baydar. I know its last formline doesnt read very well but the horse was bang in contention half a mile out before clearly failing to get home and the jockey, Sean Davis, wisely let it coast home and it trotted the last two furlongs. Soft ground does suit this horse and the drop back in trip to its ideal distance will bring about a much improved run. Lets not forget that this horse was rated 105 at his peak and has won off 99. He ran two excellent races in defeat last season when third to Arrowtown at York in October trying to concede a pound to that horse who was in excellent form at the time and was notching a hat trick. Baydar was also a fast finishing second to Ravenous at Chester in September when beaten only a head and was trying to give the winner 19lb on that occasion. He was running off marks of 88 and 89 those days and this mark of 73 is the lowest he has ever raced off. Joanna Mason takes another 5lb off and we all know this lass can ride. She actually won a sprint at Redcar the other day and i think she may well have two winners this week. Views anyone ? Love the detailed post and have merged it into Daily Chat thread for the racing guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) Ratings for Epsom Saturday ( for a better show than Fridays effort ) The 100 rated horse is best rated horse including the price it is available at (after normalising all other ratings to give a generalised race rating) and NOT necessarily the best horse in the race, just incase anyone is wondering why the top rated is always 100 Some may like to call it the best priced 'value' horse, Edited May 31, 2019 by Valiant Thor Wrong Prices imported for some horses richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 550 epsom new method Left 2 horses with positive figures Lake volta +3 Helvetian +3 Ew bets at 5/1 and 16/1 ....5pt ew willh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 550 epsom new method Left 2 horses with positive figures Lake volta +3 Helvetian +3 Ew bets at 5/1 and 16/1 ....5pt ew willh We both have Lake Volta so might be a thumbs up for that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 50 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: We both have Lake Volta so might be a thumbs up for that one Posted a listed class time last time ....a reproduction woukd be enough i reckon ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted June 1, 2019 Share Posted June 1, 2019 Morning 5.00 Worcester-Glanvilles Guest Each Way @ 14-1 Ladbrokes Like the booking of Harry Cobden Alley Cat Glover, DanV89 and EviL ZippY 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hit 1st, Fell 2nd Posted June 1, 2019 Author Share Posted June 1, 2019 12 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said: Love the detailed post and have merged it into Daily Chat thread for the racing guys. I was actually going to use it as a thread on its own. There would be a rundown of a race or races but also my slant or take on things that are in the news. We all have our views and opinions and i was going to use it as my soapbox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted June 1, 2019 Share Posted June 1, 2019 (edited) Willie The Wisp 3 20 Navan 1/4 pt ew 28/1 W/Hill unplaced P/L account = + 133.75 from may 2018 Edited June 7, 2019 by black rabbit update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Systemight Posted June 1, 2019 Share Posted June 1, 2019 Value Picks: These are the horses at the top of the market who would not necessarily be my selection but offer a tad of value as opposed to my "tissue" prices. The Price in brackets is my tissue,followed by the current price (and bookmakers offering it). All selections should be backed with Bog offering bookmakers.. Worcester 1.45 SHOAL BAY (11/4) - 9/2 365 2.55 NOTWHATIAM (2/1) - 3/1 365,Sky,bet Vic 3.30 STEAL A MARCH (11/8) - 7/4 Sky,BetVic 4.05 KINGS RYDE (5/2) -5/1 General 5.00 COILLTE EILE (5/2) - 11/4 General 5.35 LATE AGAIN(11/8) - 7/4 365,Sky BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Systemight Posted June 1, 2019 Share Posted June 1, 2019 Value Picks: Stratford 6.00 COME ON COME ON (11/8) - 7/4 General 6.30 BLAIRS COVE (10/11) - 11/10 365,Sky,Hills,PPower 7.00 RED HOT CHILLY (15/8) - 5/2 Sky,Bet Vic 8.30 ZAMPARELLI (13/8) - 9/4 Sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted June 1, 2019 Share Posted June 1, 2019 10 hours ago, Striker said: Morning 5.00 Worcester-Glanvilles Guest Each Way @ 14-1 Ladbrokes Like the booking of Harry Cobden WON yossa6133, DanV89 and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted June 2, 2019 Share Posted June 2, 2019 On 5/31/2019 at 7:46 PM, Valiant Thor said: Ratings for Epsom Saturday ( for a better show than Fridays effort ) The 100 rated horse is best rated horse including the price it is available at (after normalising all other ratings to give a generalised race rating) and NOT necessarily the best horse in the race, just incase anyone is wondering why the top rated is always 100 Some may like to call it the best priced 'value' horse, richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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