The Equaliser
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Posts
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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2 hours ago, BillyHills said:
Good luck with that then
Many thanks Billy; seems a bit unethical as one is supposed to put up the best bet of the day. However, in a competition such as this as the month end looms I feel that I have to give it a shot. I'm not too competitive really; I just don't like to lose, haha
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5.15 Plum Musical Stardust 1 point win at 6 Bet365 11.25 am (lost 1/2 point in the space of a few minutes with Marathon bet
I reckon that I have about 40 points to make up to win the September competition so I will recomend outsiders from tomorrow in an attempt to win the competition
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Three doubles and two trebles today and one win bet
Only two meetings today without much class action.
Doubles:
(1) 2.45 Plum Cubswin 3/1, 5.15 Plum Musical Stardust 9/2 £4 v £88.00
(2) 3.15 Plum Gold Mountain 10/3, 4.45 Plum Goldslinger 3/1 =£4 v £69.82
(3) 2.00 Ham Autumn Flight 11/4, 5.30 Ham Soloist 4/1 = £4 v £75.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.45 Plum Cubswin, 3.15 Plum Gold Mountain and 5.15 Plum Musical stardust = £2 v £190.66
(2) 2.00 Ham Autumn Flight, 4.45 Plum Goldslinger and 5.30 Ham Funny Man 15/8 = £2 v £86.24
5.15 Plum Musical Stardust £4 win at 6.5 Marathon bet
Total stakes = £20.00
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Three doubles and two trebles today.
Only two meetings today without much class action.
Doubles:
(1) 2.45 Plum Cubswin 3/1, 5.15 Plum Musical Stardust 9/2 £4 v £88.00
(2) 3.15 Plum Gold Mountain 10/3, 4.45 Plum Goldslinger 3/1 =£4 v £69.82
(3) 2.00 Ham Autumn Flight 11/4, 5.30 Ham Soloist 4/1 = £4 v £75.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.45 Plum Cubswin, 3.15 Plum Gold Mountain and 5.15 Plum Musical stardust = £2 v £190.66
(2) 2.00 Ham Autumn Flight, 4.45 Plum Goldslinger and 5.30 Ham Funny Man 15/8 = £2 v £86.24
Total stakes = £16.00
Results Update:
Two winners yesterday but not coupled therefore loss of £20
Original Bank £1,200.00 -£39 = £1161.00 C/Fwd
ROI = N/A
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4.25 Ayr one point win Another Touch 5.5 Bet365 11.35am
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Four doubles and two trebles today.
Loads of choice today in class races. Fingers crossed?
Doubles:
(1) 2.0 Ayr Kynren 15/8 (yuk), 4.25 Ayr another Touch 9/2 £4 v £63.24
(2) 2.55 NB Mystery Power 11/4, 3.15 Ayr Orlaith 10/3 =£4 v £65.00
(3) 3.25 chlm War Glory 11/4, 4.40 Nb Fantastic Blue 5/2 = £4 v £52.48
(4) 1.25 Ayr Plymouth Rock 7/2, 5.30 Ayr Shamad 4/1 = £4 v £90.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.0 Ayr Kynren, 2.55 NBb Mystery Power, 4.25 Ayr Another Touch = £2 v £118.58
(2) 3.15 Ayr Orlaith, 3.25 Chlm War Glory and 4.40 Nb Fantastic Blue = £2 v £118.12
Total stakes = £20.00
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Four doubles and two trebles today.
Loads of choice today in class races. Fingers crossed?
Doubles:
(1) 2.0 Ayr Kynren 15/8 (yuk), 4.25 Ayr another Touch 9/2 £4 v £63.24
(2) 2.55 NB Mystery Power 11/4, 3.15 Ayr Orlaith 10/3 =£4 v £65.00
(3) 3.25 chlm War Glory 11/4, 4.40 Nb Fantastic Blue 5/2 = £4 v £52.48
(4) 1.25 Ayr Plymouth Rock 7/2, 5.30 Ayr Shamad 4/1 = £4 v £90.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.0 Ayr Kynren, 2.55 NBb Mystery Power, 4.25 Ayr Another Touch = £2 v £118.58
(2) 3.15 Ayr Orlaith, 3.25 Chlm War Glory and 4.40 Nb Fantastic Blue = £2 v £118.12
Total stakes = £20.00
Results Update:
No bets yesterday so balance remains the same.
Original Bank £1,200.00 -£19 = £1181.00 C/Fwd
ROI = N/A
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2.10 Ayr Byeline 1point win at 7/1 Paddypower
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No bets today as I have not found the time to report. Sorry
Results Update:
Two winners and a load of seconds, feel a bit unlucky not to have scored hence a £20 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 -19 = £1181.00 C/Fwd
ROI = N/A
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4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom 7.0 Bet365 12.46 Couldn't get 7.5 ☹️
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Four doubles at £4 and two trebles at £2 today.
Some good class action today
Doubles:
(1) 3.40 Pont Gale Force Maya 3/1, 6.30 Chel Shimmering Dawn 3/1 = £4 v £64.00
(2) 4.0 Ayr Eva Maria 3/1, 4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom 6/1 =£4 v £112.00
(3) 2.0 Ayr Moniseur Noir 7/1, 3.0 Ayr Barde Contiguo 9/2 = £4 v £176.00
(4) 2.30 Ayr Zoravan 5/1, 5.0 Ayr Iron Mike 6/1 = £4 v £168.00
Trebles:
(1) 3.40 Pont Gale Force Maya, 4.0 Ayr Eva Maria and 6.30 Chelm Shimmering Down = £2 v £128.00
(2) 2.0 Ayr Monsieur Noir, 3.0 Ayr Barde Contiguo and 4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom = £2 v £616.00
Total stakes = £20.00
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Four doubles at £4 and two trebles at £2 today.
Some good class action today
Doubles:
(1) 3.40 Pont Gale Force Maya 3/1, 6.30 Chel Shimmering Dawn 3/1 = £4 v £64.00
(2) 4.0 Ayr Eva Maria 3/1, 4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom 6/1 =£4 v £112.00
(3) 2.0 Ayr Moniseur Noir 7/1, 3.0 Ayr Barde Contiguo 9/2 = £4 v £176.00
(4) 2.30 Ayr Zoravan 5/1, 5.0 Ayr Iron Mike 6/1 = £4 v £168.00
Trebles:
(1) 3.40 Pont Gale Force Maya, 4.0 Ayr Eva Maria and 6.30 Chelm Shimmering Down = £2 v £128.00
(2) 2.0 Ayr Monsieur Noir, 3.0 Ayr Barde Contiguo and 4.30 Ayr Orange Blossom = £2 v £616.00
Total stakes = £20.00
Results Update:
I always start my day full of hope that I will get a few winners but only one yesterday. A very frustrating day. Never mind I still have twelve days to show a decnt profit for September hence a £20 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 +£1 = £1201.00 C/Fwd
ROI = N/A
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4.45 Kel Zolfo 1 point win at 5.5 Bet365 10.11am
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Five doubles at £3, One treble at £3 and one at £2e today.
Spoilt for choice today
Doubles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose 11/4, 4.0 San Magical Rythms 10/3 = £3 v £48.75
(2) 5.05 Sanj Delicat Kiss 5/2, 5.15 Kel Canforsd Thompson 3/1 =£3 v £42.00
(3) 4.10 Bev Reasure 11/4, 5.35 San Angels Whisper 5/2= £3 v £39.36
(4) 3.45 Yar Khuzaam 11/4, 4.45 Kel Zolfo 9/2 = £3 v £71.49
(5) 3.15 Yar Line Of Reason 4/1, 4.35 San Just The Man 9/4 = £3 v £48.75
Trebles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose, 4.0 San Magical Rythms and 5.05 San Delicate Kiss = £3 v £170.61
(2) 4.10 Bev Reasure, 5.15 Kel Canford Thompson and 5.35 San Angels Whisper = £2 v £105
Total stakes = £20.00
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Five doubles at £3, One treble at £3 and one at £2e today.
Spoilt for choice today
Doubles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose 11/4, 4.0 San Magical Rythms 10/3 = £3 v £48.75
(2) 5.05 Sanj Delicat Kiss 5/2, 5.15 Kel Canforsd Thompson 3/1 =£3 v £42.00
(3) 4.10 Bev Reasure 11/4, 5.35 San Angels Whisper 5/2= £3 v £39.36
(4) 3.45 Yar Khuzaam 11/4, 4.45 Kel Zolfo 9/2 = £3 v £71.49
(5) 3.15 Yar Line Of Reason 4/1, 4.35 San Just The Man 9/4 = £3 v £48.75
Trebles:
(1) 1.50 San Union Rose, 4.0 San Magical Rythms and 5.05 San Delicate Kiss = £3 v £170.61
(2) 4.10 Bev Reasure, 5.15 Kel Canford Thompson and 5.35 San Angels Whisper = £2 v £105
Total stakes = £20.00
Results Update:
One winner yesterday and nothing coupled so a £16 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 +£21 = £1221.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 1.75 %
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@MCLARKE Wowee, I'm impressed. I thought that the calculations may be difficult. I truly hope that you are justly rewarded for all your efforts
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@MCLARKE Many thanks for your reply. Bad luck today with Sea Of Mystery being beaten a short head.
Not sure I can work out true chances of place selections based upon assumed winning true chances. I can see that your 9/4 chance has about a 31% chance of winning (though I suspect that there is a substantial part of the over-round attached to it). Anyway, if we had an eight horse race a week before where the first two horses finished one and two where there was just a nose to separate them and they were five lengths clear of the rest of the field , and now it is next week with the same runners lining up against each other over the same course and distance and on the same going all without penalties I can see that the first two have a true 50% chance of winning the race. It seems obvious to me that it is highly likely that either one will win again and that the other one will finish second. I haven't a clue on how to calculate the percentage chance of either one being 3rd or 4th. I do appreciate that having a 4th place is better than just having a 3rd place but calculating the percentages escapes me
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7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 1 point win at 6.5 BetVictor 11.01am
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Three doubles and two treble today.
Once more into the breach
Doubles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad 4/1, 4.0 Red Star Shield 3/1 = £6 v £120.00
(2) 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory 11/4, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter 5/2= £6 v £78.72
(3) 3.30 Red Golden Parade 11/4, 7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 11/2 = £4 v £97.48
Trebles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad, 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory and 4.0 Red Star Shield £2 v £162.50
(2) 3.30 Red Golden Parade, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter and 7.30 Newc Torado Dorado = £2 v £170.62
Total stakes = £20.00
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Three doubles and two treble today.
Once more into the breach
Doubles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad 4/1, 4.0 Red Star Shield 3/1 = £4 v ££80.00
(2) 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory 11/4, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter 5/2= £4 v £52.48
(3) 3.30 Red Golden Parade 11/4, 7.30 Newc Tora Dorado 11/2 = £4 v £97.48
Trebles:
(1) 2.10 Yar Foad, 2.20 Chep Paths Of Glory and 4.0 Red Star Shield £2 v £162.50
(2) 3.30 Red Golden Parade, 5.10 Yar Merry Banter and 7.30 Newc Torado Dorado = £2 v £170.62
Total stakes = £16.00
Results Update:
Only one second today so a £10 loss on the day
Original Bank £1,200.00 +£37 = £1237.00 C/Fwd
ROI = 3.08 %
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@MCLARKE What I meant was that if your pure mathematics showed a selection the night before being offered by the bookies on Oddschecker at say 3/1 or 4.0 and in the morning it was now being offered at say 5/1 or 6.0 then you have to be suspicious that although the odds look very tempting that something is very wrong with the selection. The bookies don't give away odds out of the kindness of their hearts.
Also, I am a bit confused when you say about making a profit on each individual bet. Take your selection yesterday 1.50 Worc Ben Light 7/4f £10 EW. It finished 2nd. Hence, I figure that you lost £10 on the win bet and gained £3.50 (1/5 x 7/4) on the place bet = a loss of £6.50 for the day. I only mentioned 5/1 because a loss on the win bet would be covered by £10 on the place bet returning 10x 5=£50/5 = £10. Maybe I'm missing something that you can explain?
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@Craig bluenose The usual place odds for 8/9 runners is 1/5 odds. Also, 4 places in handicaps are for 16 runners or more. Normally one would need odds of 5/1 or more for a true cover bet.
Hope this helps
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@MCLARKE Interesting that you do it with no form study at all. Still might be worthwhile taking account of market movements on Oddschecker particularly the night before racing, in the morning and in the run up to the race itself. I know it is difficult to predict which may the betting market might turn but I rather feel that if my selection is being shunned by the market, especially, the ones at shorter odds e.g. 3/1 - 5/1 then someone in the know has the knowledge that the horse will run very poorly despite all the hype in the racing press.
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4.30 Thsk Florenza 1 point win at 6.0 Marathon bet 10.18am
Daily Singles, Doubles, Trebles and Trixies
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Three doubles and two trebles today.
Loads of racing today so a lot of sifting.
Doubles:
(1) 2.55 Leic Knockabout Queen 9/4, 5.50 Ham Pioneering 7/2 = £4 v £58.48
(2) 2.45 War Manofthemountain 11/4, 7.0 Km Pesto 9 /2 =£4 v £67.48
(3) 3.50 War Working Class 10/3, Fairy Stories 9/2 = £4 v £95.32
Trebles:
(1) 2.45 War Manofthemountain, 2.55 Leic Knockabout Queen and 5.50 Ham Pioneering = £2 v £109.68
(2) 3.50 War Working Class, 4.45 Ham Fairy Stories and 7.0 Km Pesto = £2 v £214.50
Total stakes = £16.00
Results Update:
Not even a sniff of a winner yesterday hence a loss of £16.00
Original Bank £1,200.00 -£55 = £1145.00 C/Fwd
ROI = N/A