Smiles Tennis

Posted last night in last week's thread so copied it here. 
WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair
 
Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet. 
 
WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair
 
Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win. 

Posted last night in last week's thread so copied it here. 
WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair
 
Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet. 
 
WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair
 
Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win. 

@CzechPunter Can you move my two picks in last weeks thread to this weeks again please?
 
No worries mate,  I just copied it below. 👍 

WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair
Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet. 
WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair
Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win. 

Rome Kudermetova to beat Potapova - 1.95 with Betfair 
Kudermetova the better player,  in better form and recently beat Potapova as well. 

Don't follow ATP so can't help with an opinion but can dig out stats galore if you want. Here is Fritz v Hanfman match stats, for all matches in the last month, clay only. Gives you an idea of who's doing what well in the matches. 

Don't follow ATP so can't help with an opinion but can dig out stats galore if you want. Here is Fritz v Hanfman match stats, for all matches in the last month, clay only. Gives you an idea of who's doing what well in the matches. 

Those all look like sensible picks to me! I haven't been able to watch a lot of matches this week, unfortunately, but I'll be back to the grind on Monday again. Can't see anything stand-outish today, but Sasnovich at 2.42 looks decent value, certainly!

WTA Rome - A. Sasnovich to beat D. Vekic - 2.42 with Betfair 
Sasnovich hasn't been in great form but her last three defeats were against Kenin (who seems to be getting some good form), Krejcikova and Bouzkova in a three setter who weren't bad players to lose to right now. She played some decent tennis against Fernandez as she took the three set win.
I am more worried about Vekic at this price. Vekic has played less than 20% of her matches on clay. She's lost her last two although Pliskova was not a bad defeat, Masarova should have been dispatched of. Sasnovich could continue her mixed (mostly bad) form, but I can't see how Vekic can be such a price given her average form and lack of clay matches. 

WTA Rome - Martic to beat Osorio - 1.8 with Betfair
Martic is the better player here, Osorio has dropped back down the rankings a bit since her HC points from 2022 came off (Finals in Tenerife and Monterrey). Osorio lost to Lauren Davis last time out on clay, in straight sets. She has come through qualifying here but has now spent more than five and a half hours on court in the last three days. 
Martic won't be blasting her away and leaving Osorio to look for errors. She'll be mixing it up and moving her around the court with her all court game. Martic leads the way in clay only rankings #20 to Osorio's #117 and I think she will have too much for her today (or tomorrow with rain :))
Martic's last two defeats on clay were against Swiatek and Potapova, both higher level players than Osorio. 1.8 looks like value to me. I think she'll start the match under 1.7. 

Nuria Parrizas-Diaz (+1.5 sets) to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 1.88 with Unibet
NPD managed to take a set off Kudermetova in Madrid not that long ago, and the conditions here should suit her even better. Moreover, Kudermetova is yet to play here, so another plus for NPD. Any rain (not much scheduled, but could happen) would be great as well.

I’m curious to see how many people will be out there supporting Giorgi, considered that at the same time there will be the Champions semifinal Milan-Inter, a big event here in Italy

WTA Rome - Pavlyuchenkova to beat Errani - 1.68 with Betfair.
Pav getting some court time back under her belt and starting to find some shots. Kasinteva played out of her skin in their close match and Kasatkina is too class at the moment for Pav to get past.
Errani has only beaten one top 100 player this year and even for a while before that to find the last one. Although Pav is ranked her lower she is playing top 100 level easily. Pav leads the h2h 5-2 with Errani's two wins both coming when she was top 15. 

WTA Rome - Rus to beat Giorgi - 2.48 - Betfair
Rus is far more experienced on the dirt than Giorgi, she's won over 70% of her points on clay. Giorgi, when playing players who've won over 70% of their points on clay, (so regular clay courters) on clay, Giorgi has lost 5/6 going back a few years with the win coming against Chiesa where she was a 1.14 odd fave. 
Giorgi has only played one (well, half ) a clay match this year when she retired last match out against Sherif in the first round in Madrid. Giorgi will have the crowd but she's rusty and her fitness could be questioned here, I don't know what the injury was but Rus can make like difficult for Giorgi who has only reached the second round here once, back in 2014.
I think 1.66 is a little short on Giorgi here so backing Rus. 

WTA Rome - Parrizas Diaz to beat Niemeier - 2.34 with Betfair
Niemeier horribly out of form. She lost 7/8 before Madrid where she beat Wang and an injured Kvitova before losing to Mertens. I can't see that being the start of a run of form. Her last tour win before that was back in February when she beat Kenin indoors. 
Parrizas Diaz had a shocker last time out losing to Mandlik but before that defeat she was 10-2 only losing to Kudermetova in Madrid and SST on the clay. 
I feel this is another one that should be more 50/50. Maybe Niemeier has the slight advantage but 2.34 seems like a bit of value for me on Parrizas Diaz. 

WTA Rome Qualies - A. Konjuh to beat O. Danilovic - 2.2 with Betfair
Another close match up that I put more at 50/50. Recent form is mixed, Konjuh lost her last four outings all on clay but the lowest ranked player she faced was #101 and had close matches in the last three, with two tie breaks against Navarro and Grabher and a three setter against Parks. 
Danilovic has gone 2-2 with her last four matches, also all on clay. A three set loss against Frech is no shame but she lost 2 & 1 to the #412 before that. 
Konjuh had the slightly better recent form against the better players even though she lost those matches. Konjuh is also 26-9 vs lefties (of which Danilovic is one) and this record is 6-0 on clay, so 2.2 is a bit of value for me. Could go either way so lets take the odds against. 
Credit in the bank today already after Bejlek won quite easily this morning. 
 

WTA Rome - Parrizas Diaz to beat Niemeier - 2.34 with Betfair
Niemeier horribly out of form. She lost 7/8 before Madrid where she beat Wang and an injured Kvitova before losing to Mertens. I can't see that being the start of a run of form. Her last tour win before that was back in February when she beat Kenin indoors. 
Parrizas Diaz had a shocker last time out losing to Mandlik but before that defeat she was 10-2 only losing to Kudermetova in Madrid and SST on the clay. 
I feel this is another one that should be more 50/50. Maybe Niemeier has the slight advantage but 2.34 seems like a bit of value for me on Parrizas Diaz. 

I very much agree with Parrizas-Diaz!
Shelby Rogers to beat Linda Noskova at 1.58 with Unibet
I think that Noskova still needs some match practice in order to be competitive, and she had some physical issues when she last played in Oeiras, which is worrying. She has a higher ceiling and more talent than Rogers, there's no doubt about that, but her status is unknown, and Rogers is solid enough to take advantage of that.

WTA Rome - Parrizas Diaz to beat Niemeier - 2.34 with Betfair
Niemeier horribly out of form. She lost 7/8 before Madrid where she beat Wang and an injured Kvitova before losing to Mertens. I can't see that being the start of a run of form. Her last tour win before that was back in February when she beat Kenin indoors. 
Parrizas Diaz had a shocker last time out losing to Mandlik but before that defeat she was 10-2 only losing to Kudermetova in Madrid and SST on the clay. 
I feel this is another one that should be more 50/50. Maybe Niemeier has the slight advantage but 2.34 seems like a bit of value for me on Parrizas Diaz. 

WTA Rome Qualies - A. Konjuh to beat O. Danilovic - 2.2 with Betfair
Another close match up that I put more at 50/50. Recent form is mixed, Konjuh lost her last four outings all on clay but the lowest ranked player she faced was #101 and had close matches in the last three, with two tie breaks against Navarro and Grabher and a three setter against Parks. 
Danilovic has gone 2-2 with her last four matches, also all on clay. A three set loss against Frech is no shame but she lost 2 & 1 to the #412 before that. 
Konjuh had the slightly better recent form against the better players even though she lost those matches. Konjuh is also 26-9 vs lefties (of which Danilovic is one) and this record is 6-0 on clay, so 2.2 is a bit of value for me. Could go either way so lets take the odds against. 
Credit in the bank today already after Bejlek won quite easily this morning. 
 

WTA Rome Qual. Bejlek to beat Birrell @2.12 with Betfair
I make this a 50/50 shot so a bit of value with Bejlek. Birrell is the slightly higher quality player but she's 25 and has only played 40 matches on clay in her career, she's won over 70% of her points on hard court. 
Bejlek is only 17 years old and has already played almost double the amount of clay court matches (55-23). They both have a couple of 60K titles in the last couple of years but Birrell's on HC and Bejlek's were on clay. 
 

WTA Rome Qual. Bejlek to beat Birrell @2.12 with Betfair
I make this a 50/50 shot so a bit of value with Bejlek. Birrell is the slightly higher quality player but she's 25 and has only played 40 matches on clay in her career, she's won over 70% of her points on hard court. 
Bejlek is only 17 years old and has already played almost double the amount of clay court matches (55-23). They both have a couple of 60K titles in the last couple of years but Birrell's on HC and Bejlek's were on clay. 
 

ITF Bonita Springs - Day to beat Li - @2.5 on Betfair
Both playing well this week but Day leads the head to head including winning last month in straight sets against Li on clay. Day has climbed the rankings slightly this year, Li has dropped about 60 places. 
I would make Day a bit shorter, she was 2.6 ish when she beat her last month.

WTA St Malo - Stephens to beat Svitolina - 1.88 with Betfair
I am going to go the other way to @CzechPunter and say Sloane v Svitolina does look interesting now I have had a deeper look. 
Svitolina has finally started getting some wins under her belt during her comeback which is good. She needed to get some minutes on the court to clear the rust. I thought this match would be on Stephens' racquet and after a little data hunt decided she should be a little bit shorter than she is so will back her. 
Svitolina has spent an extra 1.45 hours on court this week and that will take it's toll on her. Stephens seems to want it this week, her last three tournaments as first seed were first round defeats so motivation looks to be on point this week. She has had easier matches but she's dispatched them without too much trouble. 
So the extra time on court, and the fact that Svitolina has offered up an extra 10 break points to her opponent (23 vs 13) than Stephens has makes me think Stephens should take this and should be a bit shorter, she will grab those breaks fast if they're offered up and the legs could start to tire if Sloane is rallying well and not making the errors.