Smiles Tennis

I didn't really expect anything else but a 2-0 Sabalenka win but at those odds I had to have a go with all three of their previous matches going 3 sets and this being Sloane's fave tournament.  I lost some bets opposing her in the last two weeks, swings and roundabouts. 😁

This was some really good betting from you @Smiles Tennis just that it seems like you've overestimated Sloane a bit as she really shouldn't be good enough for a set (now Saba serving for 2-0)

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Mertens - 1.98 with Betfair
Pav is getting some good minutes under her belt now in her comeback and will be looking to push on here. Mertens is 3-9 in Grand Slam 4th round matches with all her wins coming on HC, her favourite surface. She fully deserved to beat Pegula but Pegula was way off of her usual standard and Mertens hit levels she hadn't hit for a long time. She will need to continue to stay at the high level with her serving and against Pav who is 7-2 in 4th round GS matches and a previous finalist here before her injury, I think it will be too big a task and Pav has an edge here so is a value price. 
Muchova to beat Avanesyan 2-0 - 1.75 with Betfair
Avanesyan on a dream run as a lucky loser but Tauson should have beaten her if she didn't make so many errors. Muchova is fit and playing well, is 3-1 in GS 4th Rounds albeit on faster surfaces but she's no stranger to a big match and the nerves will get to Avanesyan meaning an easy 2-0 win for Muchova. 
Svitolina to beat Kasatkina - 2.6 with Betfair
Kasatkina has SF points to defend from last year and has played well beating Stearns (not too hard) and a good win against Vondrousova. Svitolina is flying on her comeback with the title in Strasbourg and wins against Trevisan and Blinkova again here. She's on an 8 match win streak and it might catch up with her soon but at 2.6 she has to be worth a shot here. Kasatkina does overperform a little when at these odds, winning 70% instead of the expected 62% but she's lost 3 of her last 6 at these odds and Svitolina leads the head to head 6-0 so that will surely play on her mind if things get tight. 
Stephens vs Sabalenka - Number of sets? Three - 3.25 with Betfair
Stephens loves playing here, she's played herself into some decent form in recent weeks and seems motivated in the press conferences. Sabalenka should have this but it is on the slow clay and although she leads Stephens in the head to head 3-0, all three matches have gone to three sets, so 3.25 for a three set result seems value to me. 
 
 
 
 

Now H2H 7-0!
Svitolina was playing like fighting in a war!
She will donate all her winnings in the FO to the fronliners fighting in the Ukraine-Russia War! 

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Mertens - 1.98 with Betfair
Pav is getting some good minutes under her belt now in her comeback and will be looking to push on here. Mertens is 3-9 in Grand Slam 4th round matches with all her wins coming on HC, her favourite surface. She fully deserved to beat Pegula but Pegula was way off of her usual standard and Mertens hit levels she hadn't hit for a long time. She will need to continue to stay at the high level with her serving and against Pav who is 7-2 in 4th round GS matches and a previous finalist here before her injury, I think it will be too big a task and Pav has an edge here so is a value price. 
Muchova to beat Avanesyan 2-0 - 1.75 with Betfair
Avanesyan on a dream run as a lucky loser but Tauson should have beaten her if she didn't make so many errors. Muchova is fit and playing well, is 3-1 in GS 4th Rounds albeit on faster surfaces but she's no stranger to a big match and the nerves will get to Avanesyan meaning an easy 2-0 win for Muchova. 
Svitolina to beat Kasatkina - 2.6 with Betfair
Kasatkina has SF points to defend from last year and has played well beating Stearns (not too hard) and a good win against Vondrousova. Svitolina is flying on her comeback with the title in Strasbourg and wins against Trevisan and Blinkova again here. She's on an 8 match win streak and it might catch up with her soon but at 2.6 she has to be worth a shot here. Kasatkina does overperform a little when at these odds, winning 70% instead of the expected 62% but she's lost 3 of her last 6 at these odds and Svitolina leads the head to head 6-0 so that will surely play on her mind if things get tight. 
Stephens vs Sabalenka - Number of sets? Three - 3.25 with Betfair
Stephens loves playing here, she's played herself into some decent form in recent weeks and seems motivated in the press conferences. Sabalenka should have this but it is on the slow clay and although she leads Stephens in the head to head 3-0, all three matches have gone to three sets, so 3.25 for a three set result seems value to me. 
 
 
 
 

Yep.  That's why I've backed Svitolina in my picks for today I shared last night.  I'm often choosing players I think will lose,  but the price is worth a shot. 

Yep.  That's why I've backed Svitolina in my picks for today I shared last night.  I'm often choosing players I think will lose,  but the price is worth a shot. 

Ya, I think hoping is one thing but betting for a short odds for at most a 60-40 chance is another thing.
For me it is a value to bet on a ML-win for Svitolina. Hope she plays like her countrywoman, Tsurerenko.

Yeah I like Kasatkina and hope she goes through.  

I don't really have a bet for today, the men's matches should be quite clear-cut aside from one, and I can't find anything I'd like on the women's side of the draw, either. Hoping for Kasatkina personally, but Svitolina certainly has a good chance.

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Mertens - 1.98 with Betfair
Pav is getting some good minutes under her belt now in her comeback and will be looking to push on here. Mertens is 3-9 in Grand Slam 4th round matches with all her wins coming on HC, her favourite surface. She fully deserved to beat Pegula but Pegula was way off of her usual standard and Mertens hit levels she hadn't hit for a long time. She will need to continue to stay at the high level with her serving and against Pav who is 7-2 in 4th round GS matches and a previous finalist here before her injury, I think it will be too big a task and Pav has an edge here so is a value price. 
Muchova to beat Avanesyan 2-0 - 1.75 with Betfair
Avanesyan on a dream run as a lucky loser but Tauson should have beaten her if she didn't make so many errors. Muchova is fit and playing well, is 3-1 in GS 4th Rounds albeit on faster surfaces but she's no stranger to a big match and the nerves will get to Avanesyan meaning an easy 2-0 win for Muchova. 
Svitolina to beat Kasatkina - 2.6 with Betfair
Kasatkina has SF points to defend from last year and has played well beating Stearns (not too hard) and a good win against Vondrousova. Svitolina is flying on her comeback with the title in Strasbourg and wins against Trevisan and Blinkova again here. She's on an 8 match win streak and it might catch up with her soon but at 2.6 she has to be worth a shot here. Kasatkina does overperform a little when at these odds, winning 70% instead of the expected 62% but she's lost 3 of her last 6 at these odds and Svitolina leads the head to head 6-0 so that will surely play on her mind if things get tight. 
Stephens vs Sabalenka - Number of sets? Three - 3.25 with Betfair
Stephens loves playing here, she's played herself into some decent form in recent weeks and seems motivated in the press conferences. Sabalenka should have this but it is on the slow clay and although she leads Stephens in the head to head 3-0, all three matches have gone to three sets, so 3.25 for a three set result seems value to me. 
 
 
 
 

Most of the players hate the drudge of travel, hotels, practice, hotel food, taxi's. It is endless (Jan to late Nov) and brutal.  So they like to arrive as late as possible, try and wing it against (hopefully) a weaker opponent, and find their fitness and legs on the match court. So they are vulnerable in the first matches after a long flight. Americans also very vulnerable after travel, especially in Europe, because it feels strange for them.  
I think with the shorter odds, you can find players that are exceptional front runners. I don't have access to match scores (showing each game played), only set scores, so I can't evaluate those who go, say 3-1 or 4-1 up. I can only really evaluate front runners by how they do 1st set.

I am curious as to opinion on the Cocciaretto v Pera match. My feeling is that Pera wins, but am interested in all opinions.
I have a small bet that works out at 6.71 . Hardly breaking the bank, but I did not think much of Cocciareto.  Sure she beat Kvitova, but Kvitova played like a disinterested zombie (She has won 36$ million so lack of motivation is a factor). Pera has already faced two dangerous opponents in Vekic and Konteveit. For me this matchup against Cocciaretto looks to be much easier. 
 Multibet (3) 6.71 Andreeva, Mirra 2.01
Andreeva, Mirra v Gauff, Coco
Winner
French Open Women Singles
2023-06-03 13:00 Andreescu, Bianca 1.67
Andreescu, Bianca v Tsurenko, Lesia
Winner
French Open Women Singles
2023-06-03 14:15 Pera, Bernarda 2.00
Cocciaretto, Elisabetta v Pera, Bernarda
Winner
French Open Women Singles
2023-06-03 14:15

French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair
Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago.  She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in. 
Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt. 
 

French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair
Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago.  She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in. 
Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt. 
 

Ons Jabeur (-1.5 sets) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.81 with Unibet
Alright, let's go against Danilovic yet again. Her game was on the verge of collapsing against Paolini, but the Italian was really poor, and Jabeur also has some deadly drop shots at her disposal, which should work like a charm against Danilovic, who is obviously not the best mover with her height. The odds for the outright win are rather poor, so I'm going with the 2-0 bet instead.
Cori Gauff to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.80 with BetVictor
Well, I honestly think that Andreeva isn't quite ready just yet. She will be soon, but Gauff should prevail here with her athleticism and experience. She's a top player by all accounts, and she's been here and done that.

French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair
Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago.  She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in. 
Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt. 
 

@adastra Fritz has been really classy recently, much improved in every respect, but this certainly won't be an easy match for him.
I'm backing Fognini to beat Ofner at 1.73 with William Hill, he seems to be the best he's been for quite a while, and this might very well be some sort of a swan song tournament for him as well. 
On the WTA side of things, I like Avanesyan to beat Tauson at 2.89 with Pinnacle. It's such a huge price, and I've heard nothing but praise for Avanesyan for her two wins in the early rounds. She isn't the favourite, of course, but Tauson tends to have off-days as well, and seems a bit overrated in this particular spot.

Friday's picks,  I'll be home from holiday tomorrow afternoon so will have more time.
Andreeva to beat Gauff 2.24 
Potapova to beat Pavlyuchenkova 1.67
Svitolina to beat Blinkova 1.51

Tomorrow's selections.
Martic to beat Sorribes Tormo - 1.91 with Betfair
Parry to beat Andreeva - 3.35 with Betfair
Pera to beat Vekic - 2.42 with Betfair
Davis to beat Tsurenko - 2.76 with Betfair
 

Alex De Minaur to beat Tomas Etcheverry at 1.80 with William Hill
De Minaur is no clay court specialist, and Etcheverry is, but the Aussie is competent on all the surfaces and I think he's still better, especially after playing himself into a decent enough form recently. There will be plenty of long rallies in this one, and I like De Minaur's condition a bit more honestly, so that's the edge that should hopefully carry him through.
Francisco Cerundolo to beat Yannick Hanfmann at 1.50 with William Hill
Hanfmann had an exhausting epic in the first round, and one that even had plenty of ups and downs, both mentally and physically. Cerundolo has been extremely solid recently, and I think he should just take this quite comfortably if he turns up in a fine enough form.
Jasmine Paolini to beat Olga Danilovic at 2.09 with Pinnacle
Once again, I'm going against Danilovic after successfully backing Watson to cover the handicap against her during the qualifiers. She's still holding up physically by all accounts, but Paolini is a nightmare match-up to test her stamina, and a very competent clay court player in all regards as well. She'll make Danilovic play plenty of extra shots, which is something that worked against her in the past, so everything above about 1.90 looks value to me here.

Tomorrow's selections.
Martic to beat Sorribes Tormo - 1.91 with Betfair
Parry to beat Andreeva - 3.35 with Betfair
Pera to beat Vekic - 2.42 with Betfair
Davis to beat Tsurenko - 2.76 with Betfair
 

For those following along with my picks,  for May all the picks posted here ended as:
46 Selections 
44 points staked (2 void)
10.59 points profit
ROI 24.1%
Average odds (after 2% betfair commission) 2.33.
I'll try and find some picks for tomorrow but as mentioned I'm on holiday and the WiFi is terrible and keeps cutting out so can't use my software for all the stats. 

On holiday this week so my research is limited to a quick look when the kids are in bed before I hit the sack. 
Ostapenko to beat Stearns - 1.44 with Betfair
Pegula to beat Giorgi - 1.39 with Betfair
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Samsonova - 3.05 with Betfair
Kasatkina to beat Vondrousova - 3.2 with Betfair
 

On holiday this week so my research is limited to a quick look when the kids are in bed before I hit the sack. 
Ostapenko to beat Stearns - 1.44 with Betfair
Pegula to beat Giorgi - 1.39 with Betfair
Pavlyuchenkova to beat Samsonova - 3.05 with Betfair
Kasatkina to beat Vondrousova - 3.2 with Betfair