Smiles Tennis

Some more picks. Good morning so far, couple of losses but Bjorkland 2.19, Caruso 2.59, Geerts 3.11 all winning at odds against that can cover some losing ones today.

Draxl won last night at 3.84 so that was nice to wake up to. Here are some for today. More later with the afternoon/evening matches I expect. One outstanding still. All odds are Betfair minus 2% commission. 1 point stakes per bet. Current total now 93 staked 25.55 profit ROI 27.5%

One match starting soon this evening. ATP Palmas del Mar - Draxl to beat Wu 3.84 Fraction of a point profit today with one match held until tomorrow. Current total is 92 points staked, 22.71 pts profit, ROI 24.7%

Some more picks.

Tomic won last night. Here are today's, could be a few more later but grass doesn't have the volume of stats so less picks on that surface.

Just over 2pts profit today. Total since start of May posting them on here now 18.52 points with 1 point stakes that gives an ROI of 23.7%. Sherif left it late, thought she would lose watching the scoreboard of that one towards the end. Just doing tomorrows matches and have one starting soon this evening. ATP - Palmas del Mar - Tomic to beat Young 1.38

And Surbiton - Murray to beat Rodionov - 1.36

Most picks going forward won't have write ups as I will now be using mostly a stats based algorithm that I have been researching. I will make opinion picks still but most will be algorithm based. 8/8 all winners. Only 1 underdog, 3.25 Svrcina. Screenshot attached of profit as everyone hates after timers but I didn't have time to post them yesterday. All £10 bets. Then onto todays picks. I will keep sharing them if they're of interest to people.

Bispal d'emporda, Dolehide to beat Rus 2.04 with Betfair

Harry basically said it. I am limited at pretty much every soft bookies after using a betting service during covid lockdowns that sends you picks that sharp bookies have dropped the price but soft bookies haven't updated yet, so value picks. I took them for lots of profit and got limited to about 25p bets at some (Bet365). Betfair Exchange is where I do all my betting now and you will never be limited there as they just take a commission from any profits. They want you to win!

ITF Surbiton - Maria to beat Swan - 1.74 with Betfair Maria is 17-2 as a fave on grass. She's got the slices in her locker that can disrupt Swans game and will be confident after her run to the SF of Wimbledon last year. Will probably go to three sets but Maria should take it.

WTA Markarska - Paolini to beat Zavatska - 1.64 with Betfair Paolini is in good form, losing to the very in form Danilovic at the French Open, winning the title in Florence before that and losing to Rybakina in Rome where she kept it close for the first set to get to a tie break. Zavatska has reached a couple of finals recently but they've been down at the 25K and 60K level. She's 2-14 against the current top #100 in the last 15 months with her wins coming against Brengle and Rogers who can lose to anyone on an average day for them.

WTA Markarska - Parry to beat Marcinko - 1.57 with Pinnacle Parry has been in decent enough form recently, getting a win against Kalinina in Roland Garros before losing to Andreeva. She's played a few doubles matches and been looking quite sharp apparently. Marcinko is a decent youngster but hasn't progressed how she would have liked in the last6/12 months. She's trying to play more aggressively but she's then making errors. She's also having trouble against half decent servers, of which Parry is. Marcinko is low on confidence at the moment and won't want to face Parry first match here when she needs to start getting some ranking points.

Haddad Maia to beat Sorribes Tormo - 1.67 with Betfair Haddad Maia beat the nerves to reach her first fourth round here, with her battle with Alexandrova being a case of who could hold on and not choke it away. SST was surrounded in controversy yesterday after a ball girl was hit and her and Bouzkova pushed for their opponents to be defaulted after a warning was originally given. They were seen laughing and their opponents was disqualified which won't go down well in the locker room. SST is also in her first fourth round match but I think as Haddad Maia isn't up against a top 15/20 player she will be feeling confident. I also think SST might not be focused what with all the controversy, it might be playing on her mind, wishing she did things differently etc, and this will affect her. Tempted for the 2-0 but just in case Maia tries to choke it away again just the win is the bet today.

I didn't really expect anything else but a 2-0 Sabalenka win but at those odds I had to have a go with all three of their previous matches going 3 sets and this being Sloane's fave tournament. I lost some bets opposing her in the last two weeks, swings and roundabouts. 😁

Yep. Noted that in my picks.

Yep. That's why I've backed Svitolina in my picks for today I shared last night. I'm often choosing players I think will lose, but the price is worth a shot.

Yeah I like Kasatkina and hope she goes through.

I think because last year Kasatkina only had to beat Rogers and Giorgi in R3 and R4, then Kudermetova who wasn't as good as she is now in the QF. More players at the start of this year were in it that will just dismantle her second serve and she's only reached the QF twice in eight attempts here previously.

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Mertens - 1.98 with Betfair Pav is getting some good minutes under her belt now in her comeback and will be looking to push on here. Mertens is 3-9 in Grand Slam 4th round matches with all her wins coming on HC, her favourite surface. She fully deserved to beat Pegula but Pegula was way off of her usual standard and Mertens hit levels she hadn't hit for a long time. She will need to continue to stay at the high level with her serving and against Pav who is 7-2 in 4th round GS matches and a previous finalist here before her injury, I think it will be too big a task and Pav has an edge here so is a value price. Muchova to beat Avanesyan 2-0 - 1.75 with Betfair Avanesyan on a dream run as a lucky loser but Tauson should have beaten her if she didn't make so many errors. Muchova is fit and playing well, is 3-1 in GS 4th Rounds albeit on faster surfaces but she's no stranger to a big match and the nerves will get to Avanesyan meaning an easy 2-0 win for Muchova. Svitolina to beat Kasatkina - 2.6 with Betfair Kasatkina has SF points to defend from last year and has played well beating Stearns (not too hard) and a good win against Vondrousova. Svitolina is flying on her comeback with the title in Strasbourg and wins against Trevisan and Blinkova again here. She's on an 8 match win streak and it might catch up with her soon but at 2.6 she has to be worth a shot here. Kasatkina does overperform a little when at these odds, winning 70% instead of the expected 62% but she's lost 3 of her last 6 at these odds and Svitolina leads the head to head 6-0 so that will surely play on her mind if things get tight. Stephens vs Sabalenka - Number of sets? Three - 3.25 with Betfair Stephens loves playing here, she's played herself into some decent form in recent weeks and seems motivated in the press conferences. Sabalenka should have this but it is on the slow clay and although she leads Stephens in the head to head 3-0, all three matches have gone to three sets, so 3.25 for a three set result seems value to me.

If you want any details for matches for 3-1, 4-1 etc for certain players let me know. I can help you as long as it isn't a list of 100 matches as I'll need to check individually. But if you're after a few bits I'm happy to help.

I have only recently started watching tennis again so wasn't sure of the circumstances around Tsurenko's other wins so thanks for the info. I don't usually like backing shorter odds and have been burned many times in the past backing shorter odds after an early break so tend to avoid that now. Andreescu is 3-4 on clay when favourite and losing the first set so could be an opportunity as well if she loses the first set.

French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago. She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in. Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt.

Putintseva to beat Stephens 2.74 with Betfair

Friday's picks, I'll be home from holiday tomorrow afternoon so will have more time. Andreeva to beat Gauff 2.24 Potapova to beat Pavlyuchenkova 1.67 Svitolina to beat Blinkova 1.51