Smiles Tennis

WTA Rome - Pavlyuchenkova to beat Errani - 1.68 with Betfair. Pav getting some court time back under her belt and starting to find some shots. Kasinteva played out of her skin in their close match and Kasatkina is too class at the moment for Pav to get past. Errani has only beaten one top 100 player this year and even for a while before that to find the last one. Although Pav is ranked her lower she is playing top 100 level easily. Pav leads the h2h 5-2 with Errani's two wins both coming when she was top 15.

WTA Rome - Parrizas Diaz to beat Niemeier - 2.34 with Betfair Niemeier horribly out of form. She lost 7/8 before Madrid where she beat Wang and an injured Kvitova before losing to Mertens. I can't see that being the start of a run of form. Her last tour win before that was back in February when she beat Kenin indoors. Parrizas Diaz had a shocker last time out losing to Mandlik but before that defeat she was 10-2 only losing to Kudermetova in Madrid and SST on the clay. I feel this is another one that should be more 50/50. Maybe Niemeier has the slight advantage but 2.34 seems like a bit of value for me on Parrizas Diaz.

WTA Rome Qualies - A. Konjuh to beat O. Danilovic - 2.2 with Betfair Another close match up that I put more at 50/50. Recent form is mixed, Konjuh lost her last four outings all on clay but the lowest ranked player she faced was #101 and had close matches in the last three, with two tie breaks against Navarro and Grabher and a three setter against Parks. Danilovic has gone 2-2 with her last four matches, also all on clay. A three set loss against Frech is no shame but she lost 2 & 1 to the #412 before that. Konjuh had the slightly better recent form against the better players even though she lost those matches. Konjuh is also 26-9 vs lefties (of which Danilovic is one) and this record is 6-0 on clay, so 2.2 is a bit of value for me. Could go either way so lets take the odds against. Credit in the bank today already after Bejlek won quite easily this morning.

WTA Rome Qual. Bejlek to beat Birrell @2.12 with Betfair I make this a 50/50 shot so a bit of value with Bejlek. Birrell is the slightly higher quality player but she's 25 and has only played 40 matches on clay in her career, she's won over 70% of her points on hard court. Bejlek is only 17 years old and has already played almost double the amount of clay court matches (55-23). They both have a couple of 60K titles in the last couple of years but Birrell's on HC and Bejlek's were on clay.

ITF Bonita Springs - Day to beat Li - @2.5 on Betfair Both playing well this week but Day leads the head to head including winning last month in straight sets against Li on clay. Day has climbed the rankings slightly this year, Li has dropped about 60 places. I would make Day a bit shorter, she was 2.6 ish when she beat her last month.

WTA St Malo Final - Minnen to beat Stephens @2.46 on Betfair. Sloane got past Svitolina yesterday but all she had to do was just put the ball back in play and Svitolina would hit the net or hit long most of the time. Minnen is levels below a fit and sharp Svitolina but she's in form at the moment. 30-7 for the year and 7-1 on clay. She's beaten Liu and Navarro here as underdog and I am hoping won't be making the amount of errors Svitolina made. I think she will be forcing Sloane to go for more winners and that didn't come off too well yesterday, she made a few winners but plenty of errors. I would have put Stephens with a similar chance today, a lower standard opponent but more in form. I think Minnen is worth a shot at this price.

WTA St Malo - Stephens to beat Svitolina - 1.88 with Betfair I am going to go the other way to @CzechPunter and say Sloane v Svitolina does look interesting now I have had a deeper look. Svitolina has finally started getting some wins under her belt during her comeback which is good. She needed to get some minutes on the court to clear the rust. I thought this match would be on Stephens' racquet and after a little data hunt decided she should be a little bit shorter than she is so will back her. Svitolina has spent an extra 1.45 hours on court this week and that will take it's toll on her. Stephens seems to want it this week, her last three tournaments as first seed were first round defeats so motivation looks to be on point this week. She has had easier matches but she's dispatched them without too much trouble. So the extra time on court, and the fact that Svitolina has offered up an extra 10 break points to her opponent (23 vs 13) than Stephens has makes me think Stephens should take this and should be a bit shorter, she will grab those breaks fast if they're offered up and the legs could start to tire if Sloane is rallying well and not making the errors.

WTA Madrid: Begu to beat Sakkari @2.30 with William Hill Begu as I said the other day is no mug on clay. Sakkari got past Badosa who just felt the nerves too much in front of the home crowd. Sakkari doesn't like being the fave herself with many short price losses. So I wanted to look here at Sakkari as a fave on clay when facing the current top 50. She's 8-7. Just in the positive which you would expect to be higher. So who did she beat? Gauff, Alexandrova, Keys, Mertens, Anisimova, Tomljanovic, a list that is hardly busting with clay court specialists. Begu can bring her problems, and again I see her being about 2.1 or maybe even a 50/50 shot, so going with Begu here at 2.3.

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

WTA Madrid - Begu to beat Samsonova - 2.32 with Betfair Samsonova can be devastating when she's on her A game but that is a rare occurrence. She beat Ostapenko last round but that's not hard when Penko isn't firing. Samsonova is better suited to the faster courts and Begu is no mug on clay. Begu can be consistent and keep getting those balls back for Samsonova to deal with, along with finding the corners with some power. I edge towards Begu in 3 sets but having a bit of Begu with the win at 2.32 as a better chance.

WTA Madrid, Kasatkina to beat Tsurenko 2-0 @2.64 with Betfair. Tsurenko pulled out last time she faced Sabalenka due to the war. If she turns up today I think she might have her mind on trying to make a point about Russia instead of focusing on the match. If Kasatkina takes a slight lead, I think that will push Tsurenko to lose focus. She could go the other way and use it to motivate and push herself to win, but I think Daria in two is the more likely.

One more for this evening.

Most of todays picks done now as I should be busy today.

Few more for this evening. I have started tracking the results of backing the opponent of these selections as well, separately. I won't post them at the same time in here but if this keeps heading the way it's heading then I will be swapping the selections for the opponents, with no adjustments to the algorithm. It's still just paper trading, collecting bets and seeing what we can find out and maybe use.

two more selections.

Some more picks for this afternoon, few "losses" so far so good data and that it's still pulling in one direction as we near almost 90 bets.

Some picks for this morning.

Two more,

picks

Ah OK. Good point. I haven't been following tennis for a while and just started to get back into pricing matches again. I wasn't aware of her injury. I should've researched better! Cheers for the info.

WTA Madrid - Kvitova to beat Niemeier - 1.45 on Betfair Niemeier horribly out of form, 4-12 this year with half her wins indoors. Kvitova taking lots of time to chill so she's fresh to compete. Coming off a win in Miami she will no doubt have been practising on the dirt so will be ready to smash it. Everything Niemeier can do Kvitova can do levels above. I was expecting 1.3 on Kvitova so all over 1.45.

WTA Madrid - Haddad Maia to beat Andreeva - 1.8 William Hill Andreeva the starlet of the tour at the moment who is on fire this year as well. Saying that her win against Fernandez was her only victory against a current top 50 player. Maia lost to an out of form Niemeier but then had two opponents retire against her in Stuttgart before losing to Jabeur which is no shame. If anything she is fresh. She might not be bang on form but I expect her to be a bit shorter so 1.8 is value for me. Andreeva is 5-4 against lefties (4-2 on clay) so she has that in her favour but she will need to continue her rich vein of form against a higher class of opponent this time and I think it might be a bit too much to ask of her.

Fair enough, i won't spend all my time hunting anymore then lol

Thanks mate. I checked a few times before the start and saw she had come down to about 2.52 so good to see. Does anyone on here know where we can find Pinnacle closing odds for tennis? Or Betfair price when the match starts? I checked the suggestions in these comments: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3627611-there-easy-way-get-pinnacle-closing-odds-data.html but can't find tennis ones anywhere. Be good to know if picks are beating the final price, Pinnacle or Betfair as they're both fairly accurate for this. Anyone point me anywhere else for this info?

WTA Madrid - Rus to beat Anisimova - 2.75 with Bet365 Rus is 11-2 this year on clay and although she's beaten mostly lower ranked players her confidence should be high. She's come through qualifying without dropping a set and beating Friedsam as underdog. Anisimova however has lost 5/6, beating only Zvonareva (#436). She hasn't played on clay since the FO last year either. She's lost her last three matches including retiring last time out in Miami. She is the better player but I think with her form and injuries along with lack of playing time on clay, she's too short here so going with Rus at 2.75.