Smiles Tennis

Last ones for this evening.

There are less selections for sure on grass due to the lack of matches played on this surface yes. All the back testing seems to work fine though. I slightly change one part of the criteria to get extra matches included in the algorithm and this hasn't affected the results drastically so seems worth it to get the picks. I would say the favourite players stats take precedent, including more recently, then the underdog stats, then underdog recent form. So Lisicki's earlier matches on grass will have an affect on producing picks, but it's minimal.

-1.09 pts yesterday. Total staked (1pt stakes): 167 Profit: +18.96 pts ROI: 11.4% Picks for this morning and some early afternoon matches. Teichmann rolled over from yesterday. All others completed.

Would you bet £1000 on the flip of a coin, and if you get it wrong you lose £1000, if you get it correct you win £15?

I wanted Boulter to win and thought she would as well, but she was a bit short for me so Watson was the bet. I'm often backing players I think will lose but if the price is big enough its the best bet.

And ATP Cali - Lilov to beat Sebastian Gomez - 1.47

Afternoon picks. A decent start to this morning with 1.73, 2.39, 1.92 and 3.16 winners, one loss has just come in as well.

Two more

Morning and some afternoon picks. Hopefully I will get time to check some just before lunchtime.

+3.28 today. Totals staked: 143 pts Profit: 20.05 pts ROI: 14%

The sharp punters will be all over the bookies and the exchanges taking the underdog price if she actually should be the favourite. As you get closer to the start the exchanges and Pinnacle are usually very accurate as to the true price as all the money has come in. If a fave is priced as the underdog they won't be for long as it will get hoovered up fast.

Value will always be slim in the few hours before the match. Better value needs to be grabbed the night before, or as soon as the market opens really.

WTA Nottingham - Watson to beat Boulter - 2.42 with Betfair Both players playing very well this week. Boulter beat Dart, who probably beat herself with her bad attitude, and Watson beating some very capable grass players this week. Three Brits in the SF's means motivation is high as they all chase the coveted British #1 spot and Wimbledon WC's. Watson has the experience here as she has played in 11 WTA semi finals before with this being Boulters first. Boulter is in better recent form but this week Watson has been on fire and with her experience, I think 2.42 is a value pick.

Today's picks.

Nishikori won at least, taking the edge off of a bad day. -5.75 points. As I said before it would be better to get the ROI to expected levels without big losing days but they happen. Staked: 138pts Profit: 16.77pts ROI: 12.2%

Two more for the US later.

I would expect Sakkari's flat hitting to cause massive problems for Cornet, did Cornet win or did Maria lose? I haven't seen any highlights.

Todays picks. Could be the odd one or two more for the later US matches.

I don't choose to focus on smaller events but with grass events the players just don't have the number of matches in their career on the surface for the algorithm to pull it in as a selection. Vekic came up to oppose on two occasions and she lost the second one to Golubic @3.21 so it seems to work. I have backed T. Maria twice as fave, she won one and lost one and Berrettini and Murray have been a pick but i think that's it for grass. Probably bad timing to start using this just as the grass season kicks in but that's life. it's still done 5 points profit since Monday this week so it's just about sitting it out and waiting for the hardcourt matches to return in full and we should get lots of picks again. "and betting options for those are not available for some people." If you check oddsportal.com and put the players name in you will get a list of all the bookies that have the match available. If you can't use any of those, nor use Betfair, Pinnacle or any other exchanges then I can't help you sorry. There's plenty of places that have the matches but it's out of my control.

The second part 100% agree. They don't take mental strength and mental fitness/motivation etc into account, although thinking about it they do partly as these factors will already be built into the price of the player. The first part is incorrect. Doing the reasoned write up, from 1 May until 9 June so let's say five weeks, I was at just under 10 points profit. In the six days since using the algorithm it's gone from 9.81 pts profit to 22.52. In 6 days. It's had a couple of days with small losses (half a point ish) but it's nothing to worry about. The ROI is sitting at 18% and this is high for long term expectations. I would think it would drop to half that and if it can come down with "break even" days essentially instead big wins then big losses, then I am more than happy. The other reason I headed down the algorithm route is my personality. I don't like to do things by halves, call it addicted/committed whatever, but when do something I put 100% into it and only do it if I can do it properly and to the best of my ability. Doing the reasoned picks was hard work. Every waking minute pretty much I was either watching highlights/reading news and forums, researching stats and prices and trying to find a value pick. As soon as the kids were in bed I was watching tennis, when the kids were on my lap watching tv I would be reading tennis stuff on my phone next to me, and although I did enjoy it, it was hard work. This showed when I was away on holiday a few weeks ago and couldn't do the proper research I like to do for a few days. I made bad picks that week and it annoyed me. I then realised that to do it this way I would need to find a way to spend every waking minute pretty much on it or I didn't think I would be able to do it well. And this was only focusing on WTA, I didn't even glance at ATP. It's bloody hard to win at this game but we love trying! Now the algorithm picks take me maybe 90 mins or a bit longer on a Monday when there's lots of matches but today it should take me 10 mins which I will do a min now I've had my breakfast. And I have my evenings free again without having to constantly watch highlights. More than doubling 5 weeks profit in six days and having my time back makes it the easy choice for me. Anyway, I've probably sent you to sleep already...picks to do.

Jeanjean pulled out so it's void. The rest resulted in a loss of 0.32 points so nothing major. Totals currently: Staked: 124 Profit: 22.52 ROI: 18.2% I will do tomorrows picks in the morning.

I thought I would start a new thread with the picks I've been putting in the weekly threads so I don't ruin those ones with too many posts and it's all together then. So latest from Vinolas losing last night left a daily total of -0.41pts to 1 pt stakes. Total staked: 119 Total profit: 22.84 ROI: 19.2% Here are a few for today. Kolar @3.69 still to play today in Bratislava as well.

Two more picks and that's it for today. So far it's been two losses, Piron and Tiffon but Golubic 3.21, Fatic 3.06 and Maestrelli 1.93 have all won so we're up so far. Had a bit of a nightmare where I input a profit wrong and realised I had made I think two or three mistakes. Once I had put in the actual value I won on my bet, instead of what matches the stake (1 pt) on the spreadsheet. Then two others I had put the profit as the full odds, 2.21 profit for a 2.21 odds bet for example, instead of it just being 1.21. Then to make it harder for myself to match it up I have two spreadsheets, one basic and one a bit more detailed with Pinnacle closing lines etc on, and the % value if any, that was achieved at the odds. Well on the basic one I moved the matches that were put back a day to the bottom of the spreadsheet but didn't do it on the more detailed one so when I copied and pasted the two profit columns so I could see where I have gone wrong they didn't bloody match! Anyway, morale of the story is keep things consistent and double check things! Now, the current profit total, including matches that have finished today, Golubic etc, is: Staked: 114 Profit: 26.45 ROI: 23.3% This afternoons picks:

Some picks. I will check the US matches at lunch and post any selections. Tomic won last night at 2.39 but finished before midnight so won't count towards today's potential profit, meaning 5.37 points profit for yesterday from 1 pt stakes. Edit: I believe the Kolar match has been put back a day.

Just under 4 points profit today with Tomic just starting now but I will be off to bed before it finishes so doing the update now. Of the Perugia matches, Maestrelli is leading by a set and will continue tomorrow with the other two put back until tomorrow as well. Two Nottingham picks are ready but the markets aren't developed enough for the other tournaments so I will do those in the morning again. Current stats are, to 1pt stakes. Staked: 108pts Profit: 26.69 pts ROI: 24.7%