Bang on

This weeks qualifiers, Premier - Arsenal (4-7) - Chelsea (8-13) - Bournemouth (16-5) - Liverpool (8-11) Championship - Swansea (12.30 k.o.) (7-4) - Leeds (1-7) - Sunderland (4-5) League 1 - Birmingham (monday) (2-5) League 2 - Walsall (7-10) - Bromley (21-20) - MK Dons (7-10) Scot Prem - Rangers (1-6) Do as you think best ... strongest 3 are .. Chelsea, Leeds, Rangers (around 11/10)

Europe France ... No Homes .... Away = Monaco (21-20_ Germany ... Homes = B.Dortmund (4-9) ... No Aways Italy ... Homes = Juventus (1-3) ... Away = Atalanta (4-7) - Napoli (8-11) Spain ... Homes = A.Madrid (2-5) - Barcelona (1-7) - Villareal (3-4) ... Away = Real Madrid (4-7) 9 games that qualify - just for information, use as anyone sees fit.. but these are the strongest according to data.

A lot of interesting qualifiers this weekend, although some are very short prices. I will list them all first ( 365 prices for convenience) - Premier .... Homes = Arsenal (2-9) - Chelsea (1-3) - Man City (4-7) .... Away = Tottenham (8-11) Champ ... Homes = Bristol City (17-20) - Coventry (3-4) - Sheff Utd (1-4) ... Away = Sheff Wed (13-10 League 1 ... Homes = Birmingham (1-4) - Bolton (4-6) ... Away = Wycombe (8-11) - Stockport (29-20) League 2 ... Homes = Walsall (3-4) .... NO AWAYS 13 games that qualify so difficult to choose. Strongest 3 Homes are - Arsenal, Sheffield United, Birmingham ... which pays 10/11

Champions league seems strange this year, I won't ever believe that these 'league games' are random. The better teams usually play the better teams, and the worst play the worst.. giving a strange look to the CL league table. Anyway.. Championship is the place for me. The ELO figures are (for the moment) helping with my way of looking at matches for potential bets. A very good weekend personally ( not just the bet advised). The midweek qualifiers are (365 prices for convenience)- I have personally done 4 x trebles with variable stakes depending upon the return odds. BURNLEY (4-6) (strongest) SUNDERLAND (17-20) SWANSEA (away) (7-10) WEST BROM (5-4)

Last nights game between Burnley and M'boro ended as a 1-1 draw (maybe should have backed the draw). A.Villa - WON 1-0 Leeds - WON 2-0

Tonight sees Burnley v M'Boro, which for me is a no bet game. Racing Post go M'boro (Draw no bet). The ELO stats on here have M'boro in a clear recent form lead, but for me, Burnley are 1. At home, 2. Second in the league (behind the mighty Blades), and 3. Burnley at home have a record of 5 - 3 - 0 with 12 scored and only 2 conceded. So for me it is no bet. I have just put the 1 bet on so far for the weekend.. A. Villa + Leeds double paying around 10/11. Both look very strong selections, with Villa at home tobottom of the table Southampton, and Leeds (12.30 kick off) at home to Derby who are not very strong away from home.

Now that I know how the ELO ratings work, I have added them to my own selection process (1st attempt) to see if I can get ratings that do not rely upon opinion, bias. Top rated (using 4 different ratings) come out as follows. (365 odds for ease of posting) Birmingham (away) - (80pts) - 4/11 .. look the weekends Banker. Bolton (Home) - (76pts) - 17/20 Barnsley (Home) - (71pts) - 9/10 Doncaster (away) - (71pts) - Ev MK Dons (away) - 69pts) - 15/8 ------------------------------------------------- Others with good + ratings at decent prices are ... Burnley (away) - 6/4 Sheff Wed (Home) -Ev Wycombe (away) - 31/20 Port Vale (Home) - 4/5 *** This is a 1st attempt at rating using this formula so won't be going mad. *** Top teams (especially Premier) look quite good, but I am looking to find the strong but not so obvious with better odds.

Thanks for the information about how scores are calculated, it gives a better insight into the figures, and I may be able to use them now instead of not really understanding how they worked.

A 1-0 win does the job, will be placing the 'profit' from the bet onto a short priced treble. Tottenham, Leeds, , Celtic .. pays around 11/10 There looks to be plenty of 'good things' on this weeks coupon, but these look the strongest to me.

The price has tightened up on Watford tonight (generally around 4/6 from 4/5), but they look a solid start to the weekend. Although their form looks nothing special, at HOME they are 5 - 1 - 0 with a GD 11 - 4 . Opponents Oxford are yet to win away ( 2 draws, 4 defeats). I've had a bet for tomorrows stake money.

Nations league not really of interest to me, a bit like friendlies. League 2 WIMBLEDON, BARROW, GILLINGHAM - treble pays 3.95/1 with boost with 365. ( All 3 are at home to the bottom 3 teams in the league) Wimbledon - look mid table but have played 3 fewer games - still 9 places above Carlisle and 11 goals better off. Barrow - 3rd in table at home to bottom of table Morecambe , and 12 goals better off. Gillingham - 2nd in table at home to 2nd bottom Accrington, and 16 goals better off. * goals better off means GD for home team at home + GD for away team away from home.

2.25 Donc - Aberama Gold - currently 14/1 - 5 places Lads, Corals, + 11/1 - 6 places with 365. Happy to see that @richard-westwood has it top rated. It was on my tracker, and is 9lb below his last winning mark. He is 0 from 10 this year but this could be the day, if you excuse a poor run in this last year, his record at Doncaster otherwise reads - 122321 - so looks to be a course that he runs very well at, and he 51k prize may encourage a bolder show.

Listen from 6.50 Thousands of bets ?

Quiet weekend, with very little league football, and not really a Nations league fan. Just 1 double Wrexham v Shrewsbury - Shrewsbury picked up their first league points last week with a home win over bottom of the table Leyton Orient. This will be much tougher away at Wrexham who have continued their upward curve and sit second in the league at this early stage. They score plenty and should win to go top of the league today. Sutton Utd v Boston Utd - Boston are finding it tough after getting promoted to the national league. Sutton have started well enough after dropping down, and should have too much for Boston who look destined to struggle. Double pays 1.14/1

A.Villa - Won 2-1, Leeds - Won 2-0 = WON + 1.48 Bolton - lost 0-2, Man City - Won 3-1 = lost -1 Napoli - Won 2-1, Barcelona - Won 7-0, B.Munich - Won 2-0 = WON + 1.22 Chelsea - draw 1-1, Celtic - Won 3-0 = lost -1 2 winners and 2 losers, disappointing Chelsea being a goal in front and then drawing, but another small profit of + 0.7 - a small profit is better than no profit. - + 5.63pts for the season. ( 6 winners from 9 bets).