Bang on

.

Bet 365 recently sent me a message saying that I had increased my deposits and needed a review etc .... I contacted them saying that I couldn't have been increasing my deposits as .. I hadn't made any. The reply then said that it was all computer generated and to ignore it.. WTF.

3rd 13/2 Didn't know that blinkers 1st time going round a bend had such a poor record as @Zilzalian pointed out. One more dream is well worth keeping an eye on as it is now very well handicapped.

8.15 South - One More Dream - 13/2 - An interesting race with a few live chances. I'm going against the f/c fav (1st hcp and needs a bit more so fav = no), and the f/c 2nd fav which although it has won its last 2, this is a better race. Trainer Jessica Macey runs 2 with decent jockeys on board but not sure they are quite ready to win. All in all an interesting puzzle .. but .. I am going with the John and Sean Quinn runner who has been on my radar. It won a division of this race last year from a 12lbs higher mark so is well handicapped now as well as being a CD winner. Wears blinkers for the 1st time (will it work ? ) and jockey Jason Hart ( top jock at course today) rides, and it is his only ride.. in the last race of the day. Should surely place if not win.

3rd 11/1

4.55 Font - Sambezi - 11/2 generally (6/1 Hills) - Not been in the best of form but has slipped to a career low mark. Trainer oliver Signy has a 27% course record, and has had a winner from just 2 runners in the last 2 weeks. Top course jockey Gavin Sheehan rides this CD winner.

Unfortunately .. Brian Hughes dropped his whip so could only use hands and heels .. might have made the difference.

The big field races with extra places, gone for the following all EW .. 2.40 CH - Whistlestop Tour - 12/1 (6places) 4.40 CH - Sony Bill - 12/1 (6places) 4.40 CH - Liam Swagger - 12/1 (6places) 5.20 CH - Kyntara - 14/1 ( 5 places)

4.28 Leic - Smart Casual - 6/4 - A non runner yesterday at Fontwell, so runs today at Leicester. Still a maiden but placed in all 3 chases. Wears new cheekpieces and a tongue tie today. Trainer Anthony Honeyball is 4 wins , 1 placed, from last 16 runners so in fair form, this is his only runner today. It is also jockey Ritchie McLernon's only ride.

I'll add my take on this ... I was a fan of each way doubles (just 2 selections- not multiples).. but have gone another direction after a most frustrating run of 11 losing bets. This included 2 yesterday ... where my 2 x EW doubles both had winners at 3/1 and 7/2 ... but the second leg failed to even place ( Drash on Ruby - who fell was one of them). Checking results showed that a nice profit would have been made with win singles, rather than having 11 losing EW doubles in a row (ouch). I wouldn't put anyone off EW doubles if you think that both will definitely place, and have a good chance of winning.. but it's the winners that make all the difference ... both being placed just saves stakes for another roll of the dice. As @Zilzalian has said, the 'value' is with the bookies on the above bet. Whilst the bookmakers don't advise EW doubles ( so we can guess that they are not top of the bookies profitable bet table), when you have 4 selections, 1 loser ruins 3 x bets .. and 2 losers leaves just 1 bet alive. IF the 2 x shortest price selections actually won their races .. it would return 5.58pts (6pts staked [ 1/2 EW] - 6 x doubles) .. so still a loss ( with 2 winners). Of course, others may place and bring in a bit more .. but if just 1 winner out of the 4 .. you would likely lose money.

5.30 Kemp - Montrachet Girl - 7/4 - Won LTO showing a good turn of foot, and is only 3lbs higher and should be capable of going in again for trainer Roger Varian (25% course SR).

A few of interest but not much to get stuck into today, might risk a couple of EW bets at fair prices myself later, but just putting the 1 up on here. 3.35 Mkt Rasen - Hold up la Colmine - 7/4 Hills - Finished 3rd LTO but had a loose horse to contend with late on so might have done a little better. Trainer P.Hobbs sends just 1 horse (239 miles) to a course where he has a 26% SR. The stable is also in good form with 3 wins, 2 placed from 12 runners. Jockey Micheal Nolan also travels for just the 1 ride at a course where he has won on 4 of the 10 rides there.

Unlucky 2nd - jockey was squeezed for room (his own fault) and was beaten around 1/2 length .. place money only.

Non runners have ruined my Newcastle bet, but have backed one tonight at Wolverhampton. 8.00 Wolv - Ramon Di Loria - EW - 7/1 (3 places) - Trainer Ewan Whillans takes 2 runners from his base at Hawick in the Scottish Borders down to Wolverhampton (232 miles). His other runner was a BF LTO (6.30 - Back Tomorrow) and has already won 3 times this year but they were class 6 and tonight is a higher grade. This leaves the selection as his best chance (IMO). The trainer is in good form with 2 wins, 3 placed from just 10 runners in the last 2 weeks. The selection continues to slide down the weights and is now 6lbs lower than when winning in August. He is a course winner and a distance winner ( but not CD). At the price in a 9 runner field I have gone EW.

Well done, I was already on them both as they were the only 2 CD winners in the field. 33/1 happy days.