black rabbit

Bazball                                                                  2 25 New/   1/40th of a pt  ew   20/1
Cloud Sover                                                         3 00 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   12/1          - Won
Talis Evolvery                                                       4 40 New/    1/40th of a pt ew  25/1           - Won
Furzig                                                                    1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  25/1
Lexington Knight                                                 1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  33/1           - 3rd
Macanudo                                                            5 00 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  18/1
Howth                                                                   1 53 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   44/1           - 4th

Didn’t really fancy anything all week today I find five
3-35 aberama gold 
4-10 elegant man
4-40 tali’s evolvere
3-15 Barenboim 
5-10 opec 
 

Bazball                                                                  2 25 New/   1/40th of a pt  ew   20/1
Cloud Sover                                                         3 00 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   12/1          - Won
Talis Evolvery                                                       4 40 New/    1/40th of a pt ew  25/1           - Won
Furzig                                                                    1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  25/1
Lexington Knight                                                 1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  33/1           - 3rd
Macanudo                                                            5 00 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  18/1
Howth                                                                   1 53 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   44/1           - 4th

🙃👍

Bazball                                                                  2 25 New/   1/40th of a pt  ew   20/1
Cloud Sover                                                         3 00 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   12/1          - Won
Talis Evolvery                                                       4 40 New/    1/40th of a pt ew  25/1           - Won
Furzig                                                                    1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  25/1
Lexington Knight                                                 1 30 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  33/1           - 3rd
Macanudo                                                            5 00 Lin/       1/40th of a pt ew  18/1
Howth                                                                   1 53 New/    1/40th of a pt ew   44/1           - 4th

Good luck with all of them today richard  "wondered if you looked at Irish national on monday yet"  ive punted Good Time Jonny"  @ 22's  last week

Lots of fantastic AW racing today, the wife's away for a few days so it'll just me and the dog watching it on TV
Newcastle 2.25
SOMMELIER

Not had a bet but probably will do on the day , the 2 that interest me are both 7 year olds as are the last 2 winners & both open to improvement
HARTUR DARC 9/1 PP ( 5 places )
YEAH MAN 10/1 PP ( 5 places ) the more rain the better for this one backing up the Haydock run .

Rated 
Frontal assault  9.0 33/1 
Minella cocooner 8.8 25/1 
Mac's charm .8.3. 25/1 
Was looking for some value and ratings didn't disappoint .....I'm liking frontal assault as his fourth in the portestown reads well now dropped 4lbs ....5 PT Ew all three ....any thoughts on race ??

@yossa6133 I always watch all the carnival meets on dubai racing, can get it: awaan.ae on live streams, will be on dubai racing 1,2 or 3.
Had Giavellotto 1240 Meydan on my radar for while, was no good in this race last year which is a worry, but probably had career best last time in Saudi, beaten by Tower Of London and Enemy but was carrying 6lb more as it was a handicap, surely will be in the mix 10/1 paddy Power 5 places

A few proviso's here.
I could only rate Runners from Britain, Ireland, Meydan, and Jebel Ali.
Which leaves out Japan and the USA. So a bit of caution is advised.
12:05
1 Isolate                        129        3rd
2 Remorse                    129
3 Swing Vote                127
12:40
1 Coltrane                    143
2 Enemy                       134
3 Tower of London     133      won
1:30
1 Danyah                      136
2 Emeraaty Anna        136
3 Dilligent Harry          132    3rd
1:50
1 Mendelsson Bay      (my best guess)
2:25
1 Leading Spirit         132
2 Mouheeb                131
3 Tuz/Colour up       130    won 10/1 /up
3:10
1 Luxembourg         145
2 Real World             135
3 Nashwa                  134
4:00
1 August Rodin         143
2 Spirit Dancer          133
3 Emily Upjohn          131
4:35
1 Military Law             126
2 Derm Sotogaki        125
3 Laurel River             123   won 17/2
Made a bit of profit on the day by way of my Tadhg  O'Shea double on my  O'Shea (L15) and a few bits and bobs on the places/extra places. but overall as usual at this meeting there were some iffy results so can't really complain.

cheap Monday 11.38 France 

Good luck with all of them today richard  "wondered if you looked at Irish national on monday yet"  ive punted Good Time Jonny"  @ 22's  last week

Good luck with all of them today richard  "wondered if you looked at Irish national on monday yet"  ive punted Good Time Jonny"  @ 22's  last week

Good luck with all of them today richard  "wondered if you looked at Irish national on monday yet"  ive punted Good Time Jonny"  @ 22's  last week

Good luck with all of them today richard  "wondered if you looked at Irish national on monday yet"  ive punted Good Time Jonny"  @ 22's  last week

335 newc 
Aberama gold 9.0. 12/1 
Fivethousandtione. 8.8 10/1 
Albasheer.  8.8 
Cover up. 8.5 
Hard race to rate ....cover up has a huge weight rise ....albasheer is on a career high 110 .....so the top two then start to look good value Ew so I'll play those 5pt Ew top 2 

225 newc 
Sommelier. 9.0. 3.95 
Blue prince 8.7 7.0 
10pt win top rated ...5pt win blue 
 

5.00 ling 
Pandora's gift. 8.5 5/2 
Ballon dor. 8.3 12/1 
Tiorvar   8.0 
World of Darcy. 7.8 
10pt win Pandora's ...2pt Ew ballon
 

425 ling 
Incrimination. 8.4 10/1 
Epsom faithful. 8.3 10/1 
Open race but these two look value bets ....2pt Ew both 

240 ling
Baldermero 8.8 16/1 
Cephalus  8.6 5/2 
Darwell lion. 8.6 12/1 
Borgi.   8.4 8/1 
Cephalus sets the standard here and is the one they all have to beat but at 5/2 and up 5lb and wide draw there's absolutely no value in that so I'll go 2pt Ew baldermero and darwell lion as I'm much happier with those two as value bets 

I can see the point more in knocking out the slow races. I guess the faster races are probably run at a truer pace whereas the slower races might just be dawdling or excessive holding up or no-one wants to front run and therefore more likely to produce false times or times that reflect something other than the conditions

I've parked setting my own standard times for the time being after going round in circles many times.
I've decided initially to use the Raceform Standard Times.
So my revised method is :-
 
1. For each race compare the actual time to the standard time.
2. Convert these into seconds per mile.
3. Calculate the average variance for each class of race. This gives the seconds per mile slower than standard time by class.
 
4. For each race amend the variance by the class adjustment.
5. For each meeting calculate the average of the adjusted variances. This is the going allowance for that meeting.
6. For each race amend the variance by the going allowance. This gives the final variance.
 
This has created some interesting and unexpected numbers. In my top ten I would have expected to see the winners of the big group 1 races at Royal Ascot etc. However this is not the case. The top rated are :-
1. + 1.68. MINZALL. Haydock Group 1. No surprise here as it was a new course record. 
2. + 1.62. LIVE IN THE DREAM. Sandown Class 2 Handicap. Won 4 times from the next 14 runs at prices of 28/1, 12/1, 5/2 and 11/8. This include the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York so obviously a class horse. 
3. + 0.82. ANMAAT. Haydock Group 3. Won 2 from the next 3 at prices 23/10 and 13/10.
4. + 0.67. TANMAWWY. Ffos Las Class 3 Handicap. A poor record afterwards with 1 win at 13/8 from 7 runs before being shipped to the US. 
5. + 0.63. DUBAI MIRAGE. Salisbury Class 2 Handicap. Won 1 from the next 4 at 11/2.
6. + 0.63. GOOD LUCK FOX. Catterick Class 5 Handicap. Ran 11 times since without success (although none of them were on heavy going). Not the sort of horse you would expect to see with a high speed figure. The going was heavy and all the races were run upto 27 seconds slower. Perhaps speed figures achieved on heavy going should be ignored or at least treated with caution.
7. + 0.59. REGAL REALITY. Windsor Group 3. The time was 1.99 seconds faster than standard despite the going being good to soft. Won 1 from next 7 at 5/1.
8. + 0.43. AZANO. Redcar Class 3 Handicap. Faster than standard and also carrying top weight of 10 st 2 lbs would indicate that this was a top class performance. However only won 1 of the following 15 races at 5/1.
9. + 0.39. SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. From the same meeting as GOOD LUCK FOX. Won 1 from the next 4 at 15/2.
10. + 0.36. SEANTRABH. Catterick Class 5 Novice. Going was Soft (Heavy In Places). Won 1 from the next 7 at 15/2.
11 + 0.36. PYLEDRIVER. Ascot Group 1. Won 1 from next 2 at 7/2.
12 + 0.29. STAY ALERT. Newbury Group 3. Faster than standard but no success in the next 5 races (although they were all higher class races).
13 + 0.28. CHIPSTEAD. Catterick (again !) Class 2 Handicap. Won 3 from the next 14 at 16/1, 12/1 and 12/1.
 
A lot more work to do but so far looks encouraging.
 
 
 

I'll take you on in the same race with the Simcock / Turner combination with TRADESMAN 3/1 bet365 . 2nd , good shout from @MCLARKE bagging the 8/1 winner 👏

15:55 Wetherby Good Luck Charm 0.5pts E/W @17/2 (4 places readily)