WaveRunner

Gotta say Goffin is as worst as they come

I like the updates. When you hit a $6.00 odd you can give frequent updates too. 
@four-leaf keep them coming mate. You are on fire this week!

And Tommy does serve it out easy to love... Another win for me today then 

Ramkumar Ramanathan to beat Jiri Vesely at 2.50 with bet365
Jiri has lost to no.419 Zsombor Piros in 5 sets on clay in Davis cup. Now he's up against a 23 year old indian qualifier ranked 136 who reached his first ATP final on grass in Newport this season. Jiri hasn't played good tennis in a long time and it looks like he'll run into big troubles again here with his bad form. An indian in asia on hard court could be a good combination so an upset could be possible. At least I think Ramkumars chances are better than the odds suggest.
Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Matteo Berrettini at 3.00 with bet365
The other indian playing in asia this week also looks like he's got better chances than the odds suggest. Prajnesh no.164 is older than Ramkumar and his ranking is not as good and he hasn't reached the same level of success through his career but he's got the game for hardcourt and could do some damage in this match. Prajnesh is 28 year old and also has qualified for his chance in the maindraw against this younger italian who just won the St. Petersburg doubles title with Fabio Fognini. The travel could be a problem for Matteo and that's the only reason I'm taking the qualifier but that could be enough.

Roberto Carballes Baena/Stefano Napolitano over 22.5 games at 2.05 with Pinnacle
All three quarterfinal matches in Biella has gone under 21 games but this one has the looks of a long match. If Stefano can utilize his serve well enough he will hang on RCB long enough for the total games to go over 22. It's even a possibility this might be a 3 set match.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.61 with Unibet
Basilashvili a bit underrated once again I feel. The guy is seriously good, had a great match in the first round, and the only things that speak for Humbert are his youth and home conditions. He's got some serious talent, alright, but Nikoloz should be 1.40 here imo.

Donna Vekic to beat Caroline Garcia at 2.22 with Pinnacle
These odds are only set by ranking. Donna is playing good enough to win this match while Caroline hasn't played good tennis this hole season. Caroline may be ranked no.4 but has no ytd titles and has only passed the quarterfinals in two tournaments on clay so far. I think Donna is playing to good for Caroline now. Carolines ranking will drop if she can't defend her titles in Wuhan and Beijing and I doubt she can do that.

I would rather skip Polansky. Remember that he won tournament in Granby and between final there and match in Los Cabos he will have maybe 50 hours. But still he had to travel from Granby to Los Cabos 5500 km so I won't be surprised if he arrived there just a few hours before match and won't have chance even for 1 training session to feel the courts. Like you mentioned Galan is much less experienced on hard courts but still he spent some time in Los Cabos and could be better adopted- he is a lucky looser here and it happen quite offen that lucky loosers go far in the tournaments and guys who have just won some tournament lose in 1st rounds of next due to tiredness mainly. Worth to add that it is so hot in Los Cabos- around 30 degrees.

Peter Polansky to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.63 with Pinnaclesports
Daniel has a 4-1 record on hardcourt on the ATP tour but those wins comes from Bogota where he beat Pere Riba and 3 davis cup wins against not so good hardcourt players with Thiago Monteiro being the best he's beaten in Davis cup on hard. He came from a clay challenger title in Italy to play in Los Cabos but lost badly in qualies to Marcos Giron. He may have known he was gonna get into maindraw anyway since it was kind of obvious that Ryan Harrison would pull out but now he faces a Peter in some kind of form after his Granby challenger title where he defeated some players out of top 200 including fellow canadian veteran Frank Dancevic. But it was nonetheless quite good effort by him to win the title and a title is always a title no matter who you faced. He also won his round 1 match in Los Cabos last season against similar opposition as Daniel.
Amanda Anisimova to beat Qiang Wang at 1.775 with Pinnaclesports
Amanda has played well to qualify for San Jose and Qiang comes of her first ever title in Nanchang but that was on clay in China and to travel some distance and play on a different surface could be tough for her just a few days after. Also Amanda beat Qiang in Miami earlier this season so it's highly possible she wins again.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Unibet
Looks like 50/50 to me. The previous picks on Basil obviously had more value, but I don't see how he's the underdog in this one.

Ryan Harrison to beat Cameron Norrie at 1.80 with bet365
Ryan played a big match last night, didn't drop serve all match and deserved to reach the semifinal. The same cannot be said about Cameron who only reached the semi by benefit of a second set withdrawal by Nick Kyrgios who showed no eagerness at all to play and practically gave the match away to Cameron. Ryan showed some great composure in saving several break points in his last match and his big serve and good baseline play saved him several times in those situations. I expect him to do the same here and eventually reach his second consecutive Atlanta final.

Melzer J. - Evans D. 
playing Friday 08/06/18
I watched both these play yesterday and imo Dan hasn't a prayer against Jurgen.
Jurgen Melzer to win 2-0 @ 5.00 with William Hill
with a saver on Jurgen Melzer to win @ 2.75 with William Hill
good luck all 

Diego Schwartzman Total Games - Over 9.00 at 1.90 with Marathonbet
Looks like a good line to me given what I saw yesterday and given how well Diego fought against Nadal in both Madrid and Melbourne. Marterer was able to stay in quite a few rallies with Nadal yesterday and Diego is a step up in that regard, so I reckon that he's going to give his rival a tough time in at least two sets. The fight was real against Anderson, but the serve will now be off the table and that should give him heart. And, most importantly, Diego does have a good enough backhand to absorb Nadal's forehand. I can't see Nadal losing unless it gets really rainy and the match gets affected by delays, but there's every chance that he's going to lose nine games or more.

just back from Surbiton after watching the Challenger series there.
saw Jurgen Melzer, Dan Evans and De Minaur all win.
Melzer's still got it, pure quality unlike Evans who was rubbish today.
some good ladies matches too.
a great day out, makes you appreciate how amazing the top players are.

Good call on Jaziri @yogg!
Fernando Verdasco to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 2.42 with Pinnacle
While Verdasco breezed past Andreozzi, Dimitrov could've easily lost against Donaldson - and the problem is that the Bulgarian really hasn't been very convincing for quite a while now. Focus shouldn't be an issue now that he has an opponent he knows, but producing a good performance might be quite difficult. I wouldn't be shocked to see Dimitrov win this 3-0, he certainly has enough talent and potential, but all the form signs are pointing towards the Spaniard being very competitive.
D.Dzumhur/A.Zverev - Over 3.5 sets at 2.62 with Bet365
A good price imo, I'd say it's about 50/50 - either Zverev comes out firing and wins 3-0 or he starts to fight with his mental demons and drops a set or two. Dzumhur is capable of fighting against the very best when he's on and the motivation will definitely be there, so yeah. It's not really a bet on Dzumhur being really good, it's more about not trusting Zverev in Grand Slams.
G.Simon/K.Nishikori - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Paddy Power
It's a bit shocking to see that these two guys have no H2H record against each other given how long they've been around, so they'll probably want to play a longer match and enjoy some time together. Seriously though, Nishikori isn't very consistent with his attacking tennis right now, so I expect Simon to find a way to at least annoy him for a while, just like Seppi did in Monte Carlo. I don't think that he's going to have enough in the end, but four sets look fairly likely to me given how these guys have been playing recently.

Lajovic D. - Zverev A.
my match of the day and I don't think it'll be as one sided as the odds suggest.
good luck with your betting all 

Sam Querrey to beat Gilles Simon at 1.90 with bet365
The bookies don't have a clue who's gonna win this match. No lean in any direction, completely even but I think Sam is closer to the win because of the following: Sam has played god awful tennis in his last 4 tournaments, winning just one match.
However, somehow, he came out and dominated a very good player in Frances Tiafoe in the first round. It was a completely different player on the court, and I can't help but think that the same player shows up against Gilles and then Gilles is likely toast. They have a pretty even head to head record, with Gilles ahead 4-3. Gilles posted a nice result in Lyon last tournament, making it to the finals, but it should be noted that he faced little competition along the way with his best win coming against the 85th ranked player in the world in Cam Norrie. I simply think Sam digs deep, and pulls off a second round win because with the right attitude Sam is nowadays better than Gilles even on clay but only if he comes in with the right mindset which I'm hoping he will do here.

omg, anyone seen what Serena's wearing? 
not even a pocket for a spare ball.
I won't mention her arse 

Van Uytvanck A. vs Wallace I.
Wallace makes her Grand slam debut and has never faced a top 50 player! 
Van Uytvanck -7.5 games @ 2.65 with 10Bet
Van Uytvanck -10.5 games @ 12.00 with PaddyPower
I think Wallace will be lucky to get zero!

Back Stefanos Tsitsipas (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Did not really understand why Thiem "forced" himself to the final last week in Lyon, rather than saving his energy for the next (two?) week(s), but at least he got his reward and won the tournament. It was no surprise he went through the first round quite easily but will face a tricky opponent in the next turn. The Greek guy already caused him plenty of problems in their previous meetings, at these odds I definitely have to give it a try.
Back Benoit Paire (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.65 with Pinnacle
Once again staying on the safe side and playing set handicap. Kei did not really impress me in the first round, in all honesty, I expected a stronger performance from him. He might have played good tennis in Rome, but at the same time is used to make matches difficult for himself. Stats are also on my side, Paire should be well able to take at least (!) one set in front of the home crowd.
Back Federico Delbonis to beat Pablo Carreno Busta at 3.00 with Bet365
The set handicap seems to be obvious for me here, but now I will risk an play the money line. I am not at all impressed with the Spaniard recently. Shaky performance in Rome, not to mention Madrid and Estoril. Ok, Delbonis is not in a hell of form either, but he holds a decent H2H record, so let's see.
Back Martin Klizan to beat Gael Monfils at 2.45 with Marathonbet
Even if probably his main focus from the beginning of the season was to get in good shape for these weeks, I am not really sure about Monfils. Not because he dropped a set in the first round against an unknown player on the big stages, but the French fun-maker is no longer the player he used to be. This match can definitely go into 5 sets, maybe worth to risk a small amount on that, but I definitely think the Slovak has a good chance here.

Ebden M - Fabbiano T - Over 9.5 games in 5. set - 1.88 (rivalo)
Really hard to guess who is winning this match, Ebden is a good sever and Fabbiano plays better on clay. The game will be rescheduled so the players will be rested for 5 set. I don't think any of the players will have the service broken twice.
 
 

I know this is not a forum but I think there's something wrong with Venus, she doesn't look concentrated. I've put a considerable stake on her but I'll cash out now (4-5 1st set).

Before the draw, I was thinking about opposing Nadal in some shape or form, but he's been handed the best possible draw by the looks of things, with both Thiem and Zverev placed in the same quarter. With that in mind, it seems that only health issues could possibly stop him, so I'm not going to dive into the outright market. In fact, I'm struggling to see where the value should lie in the pre-tournament markets, everything looks messy to me. I have been able to find plenty of match bets that I like though.
Venus Williams (vs. Wang) + Suarez-Navarro (vs. Konjuh) at 1.80 with Bet365
Konjuh hasn't played since Brisbane, she might be here just for the money honestly, while Williams is better than Wang on clay. Much better, in fact. Venus doesn't have any form whatsoever on paper, but that is because she was unlucky to run to the red-hot Kontaveit in two recent tournaments. She didn't play too poorly and should have more than enough to beat Wang.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 2.53 with Marathonbet
Wawrinka managed to beat Donaldson in Geneva before being crushed by Fucsovics, but the bigger issue is that he doesn't seem to have the right shape for battling in a long match. GGL is a decent enough player to get stuck in - and, unless Wawrinka somehow wins quickly, the Spaniard should eventually out-maneuver him.
Benoit Paire to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.50 with Bet365
Benoit Paire was struggling in the first part of the season, but he has been able to find his mojo just in time for the French Open and he isn't going to let his guard down in this form imo. Carballes Baena is a good grinder that's great for small 250s and Challengers, but he doesn't have any big weapons in his arsenal and Paire should have enough time to adjust if he starts poorly given the longer format of the game.
Damir Dzumhur to beat Denis Kudla at 1.57 with Bet365
Dzumhur isn't being given much credit yet again, but I fully believe that he's a level above Kudla on clay. He also tends to raise his game for these bigger occasions, so I fancy him to recover from the bad loss against Rafa and start with a good win here. Kudla hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in the qualifying (in terms of clay-court qualities).
Martin Klizan (vs. Djere) + Petra Martic (vs. Wang) at 1.99 with Unibet
Klizan was fooling around quite a lot in the qualifiers, but he always raised his game in the end and that should be enough for Djere, who doesn't have anything to build on this year. I had decent hopes for him before the clay court swing, but he's just missing for some reason. Meanwhile, Martic looks like one of those safer bankers to me, Wang has nothing to offer on clay - or on the main level, for that matter.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.64 with Marathonbet
Allertova is one of the many WTA players with an ON/OFF switch - and, unfortunately, it's been in the OFF mode since the Australian Open. Her bad form seems to have something to do with her off-court life, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her being satisfied with just the first round paycheck here. Sasnovich should have bigger ambitions.
Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Rebecca Peterson at 1.96 with Marathonbet
Hsieh has burnt me plenty of times, but I still think that she should be closer to 1.70 or so here given her very stellar form all year long. The loss against Buzarnescu was pretty crushing, but Hsieh has a bit of a reputation for not being up for the task all the time, especially before bigger events, so it might've been the case of her just not wanting to be in Strasbourg. 

Somewhat unrelated notes:
- I wouldn't want to touch Nadal at the current odds. The draw is soft, but I was shocked to see how much decline he's gone through since Monte Carlo. I don't know what's behind that and he isn't going to admit anything obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull out unexpectedly like he did in what...2016 I believe.
- Kvitova might look appealing to some given her good 2018 form, but there are two things to note her. First, the clay in Paris tends to be more physically demanding than other surfaces. Second, the guy that attacked her some time ago has just been caught according to the media, not exactly the best possible timing.
- I'd really love to see Halep win this time around, but I'm afraid that the Aussie Open defeat has had lasting consequences on her confidence. Not sure how she's going to handle another Grand Slam, especially given that she hasn't really amazed in the meantime.
- Djokovic could go reasonably far if his fitness is alright. His game was almost back in Rome, he stopped doing silly things and the good scoreline against Nadal should be a big confidence booster. And yeah, the super-soft first round isn't going to hurt either.
- I have no idea why Thiem wanted to stay in Lyon for the whole week. Can't help him imo.
- First round matches that should be entertaining - Kyrgios/Tomic, Petkovic/Mladenovic, Basilashvili/Simon, Siegemund/Vandeweghe, Duan/Garcia, Lepchenko/Mertens.