Timmy1515

On Saturday had 1 win out of 9 
Sunday 19 winner from 22 
just shows results can swing one way then the other I really need to get a huge sample of results.
Overall Profit/Loss 34pts
 
Overall Selections 32
Won 20
Lost 12
Strike rate :- 66.67%
AVG ODDS 1.87
R.O.I  10.63%

will add odds for the midweek games that don't have odds as soon as they are compiled

Hi all,
          I will each week post Selections I feel have a good chance of winning without taking price into consideration. Where I used to have stats to help me make team ratings here I will only use my own eye's to rate teams. So new ratings have been issued and will be used in here for selections. Teams that I have not seen will for now be based on a few stats but I will look at watching them teams within the next 3/4 weeks.
All prices here are taken from a website I use to track my bets. The prices you will see posted here are the odds I have been given on the site and are the BEST PRICE for each selection. I will not be backing all these teams with real money but wish to track them here. The teams I selected with real money will be kept away from the forum as I wish this to be abit of fun.
Of course I want this to make profit and it could make profit but wish to make it clear any Profit or Loss here does not mean I have made that profit or loss away from the forum. So my advice to anyone do not follow this with real money and view it as entertainment. If this can or does turn over a profit then at a later date I may look at this a little more.
after having a play around with this over the past few day's I believe our eye's and knowledge when it comes to ratings work better the stats but not everyone has the time.
Results will be posted at the end of the last match on this list below so I will see you all on Monday 

Hi all,
         I think it's time to abandon this approach of working out a probabilty of a football game :(. The problem I have is ratings need to be spot on from day one in order for it to be profitable. I've tired a few new things and thought I'd found a way to rate teams. 
Sport is Sport and it's impossible to get a true Probabilty on it I'm sure most will agree. I tired hard for many years now to develop a football predictor with odds but at this moment in time I till don't have it.
I will carry on predicting football matches as I enjoy it  and can pick selections that have a good chance of winning but what I can't do is put a percentage on that outcome (well I can just not close enough). 
So what I'm going to do is clean this thread up when the selections have finished and move away form this approach. I enjoy posting on this forum so will continue to do so.
I will more then likely post on the Glory Hunters forum using the methods I have used to predict football matches just without my compiled odds. Thanks all for looking in and I'm sorry I was unsuccesful with this.
See you all soon 

Hi all,
         I think it's time to abandon this approach of working out a probabilty of a football game :(. The problem I have is ratings need to be spot on from day one in order for it to be profitable. I've tired a few new things and thought I'd found a way to rate teams. 
Sport is Sport and it's impossible to get a true Probabilty on it I'm sure most will agree. I tired hard for many years now to develop a football predictor with odds but at this moment in time I till don't have it.
I will carry on predicting football matches as I enjoy it  and can pick selections that have a good chance of winning but what I can't do is put a percentage on that outcome (well I can just not close enough). 
So what I'm going to do is clean this thread up when the selections have finished and move away form this approach. I enjoy posting on this forum so will continue to do so.
I will more then likely post on the Glory Hunters forum using the methods I have used to predict football matches just without my compiled odds. Thanks all for looking in and I'm sorry I was unsuccesful with this.
See you all soon 

Hi all,
         I think it's time to abandon this approach of working out a probabilty of a football game :(. The problem I have is ratings need to be spot on from day one in order for it to be profitable. I've tired a few new things and thought I'd found a way to rate teams. 
Sport is Sport and it's impossible to get a true Probabilty on it I'm sure most will agree. I tired hard for many years now to develop a football predictor with odds but at this moment in time I till don't have it.
I will carry on predicting football matches as I enjoy it  and can pick selections that have a good chance of winning but what I can't do is put a percentage on that outcome (well I can just not close enough). 
So what I'm going to do is clean this thread up when the selections have finished and move away form this approach. I enjoy posting on this forum so will continue to do so.
I will more then likely post on the Glory Hunters forum using the methods I have used to predict football matches just without my compiled odds. Thanks all for looking in and I'm sorry I was unsuccesful with this.
See you all soon 

Profit/Loss of the day  +5.20PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +29.80PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -4.80pts
May
Overall Selections 10
Won 6
Lost 4
Strike rate :- 60.00%
AVG ODDS 1.73
R.O.I -4.80%
April +34.60PTS   R.O.I 8.24%
So a small profit made on the day New York City remain a pain in my side just can't seem to get the rating for them correct . Apart from that game was happy with what I saw today (Saturday).

Profit/Loss of the day -9.50pts 
Overall Profit/Loss +27.10PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  +27.10PTS
Overall Selections 42
Won 26
Lost 16
Strike rate :- 61.90%
AVG ODDS 1.82
R.O.I  6.45%
sore one today HJK down to 10 men in the first half after a shocking tackle and a 93rd min winner for Valerenga. So it looks like I will end this month in profit which with it starting in the middle of the month I'll take.
See you all next month unless on of the Finland games tomorrow drift.

Profit/Loss of the day +9.00Pts (so far) 
Overall Profit/Loss +40.90PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  +40.90PTS
Overall Selections 37
Won 24
Lost 13
Strike rate :- 64.86%
AVG ODDS 1.84
R.O.I  11.05%
So 4/5 today but with 2 selections still to play will update later

Profit/Loss of the day +3.20pts 
Overall Profit/Loss +22.70PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  +22.70PTS
Overall Selections 27
Won 16
Lost 11
Strike rate :- 59.25%
AVG ODDS 1.96
R.O.I  8.22%
2/3 Selections winning today another massive profit made on the day . Time to search around for any price movements for tomorrow.
 

Hi all,
          I'm looking to maybe start this up again I've been away for a while I know but I feel like giving this one last go. It would take me a while to get things up and running again but if there is some interest in what I do then I'm all for starting again and sharing it on the forum.
This time I would like to go in full depth of what I do and share all but for now I will get back to working on this project and hopefully in the next few weeks I can share how I intend to go forward with it.
thanks for reading 

Hi all,
          I'm looking to maybe start this up again I've been away for a while I know but I feel like giving this one last go. It would take me a while to get things up and running again but if there is some interest in what I do then I'm all for starting again and sharing it on the forum.
This time I would like to go in full depth of what I do and share all but for now I will get back to working on this project and hopefully in the next few weeks I can share how I intend to go forward with it.
thanks for reading 

Hi all,
          I'm looking to maybe start this up again I've been away for a while I know but I feel like giving this one last go. It would take me a while to get things up and running again but if there is some interest in what I do then I'm all for starting again and sharing it on the forum.
This time I would like to go in full depth of what I do and share all but for now I will get back to working on this project and hopefully in the next few weeks I can share how I intend to go forward with it.
thanks for reading 

SELECTION
Single
Norrby IF vs IK Brage
Superettan / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 15:00
Match winner • IK Brage
Odds: 2.55
Stake: 10

Onwards and Upwards.

The bookmakers don't care who win's as long as the book is balanced. When Compiling odds they need to know where the money could be going. You don't see the odds the bookmakers set for long as the punters shape the market the odds you see at kick off are the odds the punters have made.
You say the bookmaker know 98% the time who will win ? they use overround to roughly around 6/7% to help it's very basic what they do to compile odds. Of course they need to be aware of info on team news that punters will see and use to make there selection. In many cases they will try to point punters in a direction to bet by tweeting out stats going on radio/T.V giving out who there BET OF THE WEEKEND is. 
But like I've send it's us the punters that make the odds move from looking at odds compiling in football for many years it amazes me how many punters bet. I'd say most do it for fun and bet on teams they think will win whatever the price they don't care about value.
I've been trying for a few years to crack the code I see many systems or predictors looking to predict the outcome of the game without using percentages & saying home away or draw. I have no idea what is the best way is maybe it is just predicting the outcome and betting teams who you think will win.
I for one have always looked for value by trying to give percentages to outcomes as I believe that what it should be betting when you think the price is to big or to low. But saying that if someone gives you 10/1 on heads in heads and tails and tails is flipped 10 in a row you would be very unlucky but 10 pts down and people will question if what you were doing is right.
myself and many other people will try to work towards a long term profitable system/project. Most fail and I will most likely be one of them as well but it won't stop me from trying. 
Even though I don't post much apart from in my thread I'm always reading the forum and very interested in what other people are doing so keep up all the good work people and hope one day we find what we are looking for.

Selection
#127
Single
FC Lahti vs RoPS
Veikkausliiga / 18th May 2018 @ 16:30
Double chance • RoPS or draw
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 10 
Veikkausliiga now added to leagues I compile odds for 

Profit/Loss of the day +20.00PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +208.90PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -1.20pts
Overall Selections 112
Won 71
Lost 41
Strike rate :- 63.39%
AVG ODDS 1.94
R.O.I  +18.65%
Full house tonight  only -1.20pts on the month now after a poor start hopefully can kick on now. Got a game overnight in MLS and a game in Sweden tomorrow would be nice going into the weekend in profit for the month.
Most my selections for the weekend are done maybe a few more added as Norway games are on Monday and due to them games just finishing tonight ratings need changing so could throw up a couple more selections.

Profit/Loss of the day +20.00PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +208.90PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -1.20pts
Overall Selections 112
Won 71
Lost 41
Strike rate :- 63.39%
AVG ODDS 1.94
R.O.I  +18.65%
Full house tonight  only -1.20pts on the month now after a poor start hopefully can kick on now. Got a game overnight in MLS and a game in Sweden tomorrow would be nice going into the weekend in profit for the month.
Most my selections for the weekend are done maybe a few more added as Norway games are on Monday and due to them games just finishing tonight ratings need changing so could throw up a couple more selections.

Profit/Loss of the day +20.00PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +208.90PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -1.20pts
Overall Selections 112
Won 71
Lost 41
Strike rate :- 63.39%
AVG ODDS 1.94
R.O.I  +18.65%
Full house tonight  only -1.20pts on the month now after a poor start hopefully can kick on now. Got a game overnight in MLS and a game in Sweden tomorrow would be nice going into the weekend in profit for the month.
Most my selections for the weekend are done maybe a few more added as Norway games are on Monday and due to them games just finishing tonight ratings need changing so could throw up a couple more selections.

Profit/Loss of the day +6.60PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +188.90PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -21.20pts
Overall Selections 109
Won 68
Lost 41
Strike rate :- 62.38%
AVG ODDS 1.94
R.O.I  +17.33%
2/3 selections won so a very small profit was unlucky last night not to get a full house but pleased with how the new ratings are going. Some of the leagues are stopping when the world cup is on so it looking like I will be adding a few more leagues over the next couple of weeks.

Profit/Loss of the day -4.90PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +165.10PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -45.00pts
Overall Selections 98
Won 60
Lost 38
Strike rate :- 61.22%
AVG ODDS 1.90
R.O.I  +16.85%
 
Another small loss and now this is a record breaking run of losing days . I've been working hard on this today so not seen to many games to know if today's results were bad luck or poor selections. 
I'm working on a market predictor which will predict what way the odds are going to move so this will help me (i hope ) to get better prices and to know what teams to back right away and which to leave and let them drift. I will show you all for Wednesday's games in Norway and talk you through it.
So like I've said many times I'm happy with this atm but now adding more to it all the bits and bobs are coming together. So hopefully I will have a market predictor, A football results predictor and a selection predictor If successful it could be very powerful.
After the last ball is kick in Norway that's around 9pm tomorrow I will post the my market predictor odds for Wednesday's match in that league. Then as soon as Bet 365 release there odds on that market I will get a screenshot and post it side by side with the market predictor odds.
From there I will try to predict which odds will go up and which will go down. I am that confident in this that I reckon I will correctly get 75%-80% right maybe even more. Only time will tell if this will work and actions will speak louder then word but if it does it will give me a little edge but lets wait and see.
Right Irish league is getting dropped lack of coverage plus I have J-league 2 now so no real need for the Irish league as I was performing poor in it.
I will continue to push with this I'm working hard on it and as I'm boring I'm excited by the journey ahead will it work long term ? who knows but I will give it my best shot to make it work and it will take more then a few poor results to stop me with this.
I hope this is coming across as interesting for you all as it is for me Like I've said this is not a thread to follow with your money and back my selections Its more to show you what can be done and how bloody hard it can be and how much hard work goes into it.
Let's Go
 

Profit/Loss of the day -4.90PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +165.10PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -45.00pts
Overall Selections 98
Won 60
Lost 38
Strike rate :- 61.22%
AVG ODDS 1.90
R.O.I  +16.85%
 
Another small loss and now this is a record breaking run of losing days . I've been working hard on this today so not seen to many games to know if today's results were bad luck or poor selections. 
I'm working on a market predictor which will predict what way the odds are going to move so this will help me (i hope ) to get better prices and to know what teams to back right away and which to leave and let them drift. I will show you all for Wednesday's games in Norway and talk you through it.
So like I've said many times I'm happy with this atm but now adding more to it all the bits and bobs are coming together. So hopefully I will have a market predictor, A football results predictor and a selection predictor If successful it could be very powerful.
After the last ball is kick in Norway that's around 9pm tomorrow I will post the my market predictor odds for Wednesday's match in that league. Then as soon as Bet 365 release there odds on that market I will get a screenshot and post it side by side with the market predictor odds.
From there I will try to predict which odds will go up and which will go down. I am that confident in this that I reckon I will correctly get 75%-80% right maybe even more. Only time will tell if this will work and actions will speak louder then word but if it does it will give me a little edge but lets wait and see.
Right Irish league is getting dropped lack of coverage plus I have J-league 2 now so no real need for the Irish league as I was performing poor in it.
I will continue to push with this I'm working hard on it and as I'm boring I'm excited by the journey ahead will it work long term ? who knows but I will give it my best shot to make it work and it will take more then a few poor results to stop me with this.
I hope this is coming across as interesting for you all as it is for me Like I've said this is not a thread to follow with your money and back my selections Its more to show you what can be done and how bloody hard it can be and how much hard work goes into it.
Let's Go
 

Profit/Loss of the day -4.90PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +165.10PTS
Month Profit/Loss:-  -45.00pts
Overall Selections 98
Won 60
Lost 38
Strike rate :- 61.22%
AVG ODDS 1.90
R.O.I  +16.85%
 
Another small loss and now this is a record breaking run of losing days . I've been working hard on this today so not seen to many games to know if today's results were bad luck or poor selections. 
I'm working on a market predictor which will predict what way the odds are going to move so this will help me (i hope ) to get better prices and to know what teams to back right away and which to leave and let them drift. I will show you all for Wednesday's games in Norway and talk you through it.
So like I've said many times I'm happy with this atm but now adding more to it all the bits and bobs are coming together. So hopefully I will have a market predictor, A football results predictor and a selection predictor If successful it could be very powerful.
After the last ball is kick in Norway that's around 9pm tomorrow I will post the my market predictor odds for Wednesday's match in that league. Then as soon as Bet 365 release there odds on that market I will get a screenshot and post it side by side with the market predictor odds.
From there I will try to predict which odds will go up and which will go down. I am that confident in this that I reckon I will correctly get 75%-80% right maybe even more. Only time will tell if this will work and actions will speak louder then word but if it does it will give me a little edge but lets wait and see.
Right Irish league is getting dropped lack of coverage plus I have J-league 2 now so no real need for the Irish league as I was performing poor in it.
I will continue to push with this I'm working hard on it and as I'm boring I'm excited by the journey ahead will it work long term ? who knows but I will give it my best shot to make it work and it will take more then a few poor results to stop me with this.
I hope this is coming across as interesting for you all as it is for me Like I've said this is not a thread to follow with your money and back my selections Its more to show you what can be done and how bloody hard it can be and how much hard work goes into it.
Let's Go
 

so that's it for this weekend 17 selections 170pts on the line lets see how I do. I do normally look all weekend for odds movement but due to a little change in selection and team ratings and a 170PT risk I will leave it for this weekend.

so that's it for this weekend 17 selections 170pts on the line lets see how I do. I do normally look all weekend for odds movement but due to a little change in selection and team ratings and a 170PT risk I will leave it for this weekend.