MCLARKE

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
A good run last time is important. 8 of the last 10 winners (from 90 runners) came in the top third last time and returned a profit. The remainder have a record of 2 wins from 130 runs with a loss of 71 points.
For such a competitive handicap the betting is a good guide. Those in the top 6 of the forecast betting have 9 wins from 68 runs with a profit of 32 points. The remainder have just 1 win from 152 runs with a loss of 103 points.
Ideally the horse should have had a win in the last 3 runs. These horses have a record of 6 wins from 84 runs with a profit of 17 points.
4 of the last 10 winners (from 31 runners) had their last run at Cheltenham.
The current 4th favourite STUMPTOWN ticks all these boxes and is available at 9/1 with some bookmakers (6 places).

CHAMPION HURDLE
This is a race where the favourite has an extremely strong record. 7 of the last 10 races have been won by the forecast favourite, with a ROI of 67%.
Horses should have had at least 4 wins in the last 6 races. There have been 67 horses that did not meet this criterion and all of them have lost.
The last win should have been in the last 78 days. Those that did not have a record of 0 from 55.
The last win should have been by at least 2 lengths. There were 65 horses that did not and only 1 won.
It is not very exciting but STATE MAN ticks all the boxes but at a skinny price of 2/5.

AW selection
Southwell 4.50
GRANT WOOD

AW selection
Southwell 4.50
GRANT WOOD

It's been a tough few weeks ratings wise ....going sticks of an average 3.6 which is bottom less have made life difficult and Saturdays imperial I changed tack and thought I'd use trends just to help narrow the race and then the untrended ratings get the 1st and 2nd !!!.....so for Cheltenham I'm using untrended ratings (i.e all runners regardless) and the ground is drying ...currently soft...5.6 but could get to good sft (6.3)...later in week hopefully 
Final ratings for ultima hcaps 
Eldorado Allen. 9.0 20/1 
Stumptown    8.9 
Chianti classico. 8.9
Monbeg genius.  8.4
Lord de nesnil   8.4 
As you'd expect a very very difficult race not least because meetingofwaters the fav for Mullins has recently been bought by j p McManus for a large sum so maybe they've got dreams of winning this and the grand national ???....but for me this horse is going to have to improve a lot on what he's shown to date but if he's something special at home and that's why he's bought in then could be dangerous 
I've already got bets Ew on stumptown and Chianti classico so I'm happy with those given I get a run 😃.....the horse that's surprised me is ...eldorado Allen who has jumped to top rated on final weights so I'll be adding 10pt Ew on him at 20/1 ...that looks good value now 
Monbeg genius and lord de nesnil look lively outsiders at big prices ....tough race but the team is set ...let's hope I can get the festival off to a good start .....good luck all 

8.00 Southwell - Princess Naomi 4/1 bet365 . 👎 pulled Murphy's arms out first 2 furlongs & then ran into traffic 2f out , poor ride really but wouldn't have got anywhere near the winning favourite .

Yep,it's getting a bit tight at the bottom of the table. Probably 50/50 that we'll be playing you lot next season.

Cheeky cheeky lol. You've got to enjoy these victories. After the first 10 to 15 games it looked like we were on track for the record lowest points score in the Championship.

No, you've got me this time
I did miss off the EW, it does happen occasionally
I will adjust in the next table
There is a fair amount of manual input so it's worth checking, I don't take offence !

Won SP 3/1
Profit £ 75.60
Monthly profit £ 114.20

Just in case you haven't noticed Michael I have one selection the same as Johnrobertson so Ten O'clock (Chelmsford 18.30) will have to be disqualified (silly me)

1.42 Hereford  Yalla Habibi  ( each way )  6/1 William Hill
2.45 Gowran  Penelopes Charm  ( each way )  6/1 B et 365
4.53 Ayr  Kingston James  ( each way )  6/1 Bet 365
 
Reserves
3.08 Ayr  Bois Guillbert  ( each way )  5/1 Bet 365
4.25 Wolverhampton  Boasty  ( each way )  6/1 Bet 365
                                                                                                             Best of luck HERE and all and thanks MC    

won - today +32.50
month + 43.39

Ran really well i thought but  faded late on  and finished 7th yer woman on itv racing said it didn't look the  great at all   in paddock so  i am thinking  it will come on for this race  maybe one to bear in mind in future races!....... as long as the price is right!!

Just decided to check in to see who is still alive.... Glad the place is still up and running.... Hope all the old crew are well and hi to all the newer gang who ive never met

AW selection
Wolverhampton 5.35
MIGUEL

Won
Profit £ 30.36
Monthly profit £ 38.60

AW selection
Wolverhampton 5.35
MIGUEL

No, you've got me this time
I did miss off the EW, it does happen occasionally
I will adjust in the next table
There is a fair amount of manual input so it's worth checking, I don't take offence !

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 12th to Friday 15th March.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £100 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £40 and the third place wins £20, all prizes via your PayPal account There will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter every day or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for the total prizes Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted elsewhere will not be included  
All welcome, good luck
A separate thread will be created the evening before each day for selections to be posted in.

I loathe lucky 15's & multis in general but I do that poorly at Cheltenham a 10p each way lucky 15 will be my one & only bet this year at the festival so a £12 loss is the most I can look forward to & or that swede you've mentioned ( hope it's Ulrika 😛 )
With many bookies paying more than 4 places in the 16+ runner handicaps on offer next week can any participants stipulate for instance 12/1 eway ( 6 places ) or strictly just the 4 ? 
Rules is rules , innit !

Belargus                                         4 40 San/                1/40th of a pt ew   18/1
Holy Fire                                         5 00 Wol/                1/40th of a pt ew   22/1
 
 
 
P/L   + 176.20pts

I like Lively Citizen as well. 40's is a hell of a price way too big decent e/w chance imo.
Good Luck  Bud 👍

No rules as such but...
One lucky15 per day settled to 20p win or 10p each way please stipulate. Default will be win.
Cash out if you want Lee but for the comp your Original 4 will count.
Preferably bets would be real and not just paper picks.
Kudos, big swede and a huge imaginary trophy will be the only prize unless I win £1million, if this happens i will reimburse all your stakes for the week via Paypal. 🤣😂🙏🤑🤑
Wind ups allowed. Sensitive sorts need not apply.
Due to the varying bonus's among bookies we will default to double the odds for singles and 10% bonus for all 4 winners.
Good Luck everyone lets have a bit of fun.
Anyone winning  £1 million on the first day will be barred from the following 3 days to give the others a chance to catch up. 😂🤣
Please restrain yourself until the daily post is posted either Monday evening or early Tuesday Morning. Thank you very muuuuuuch.
Oh! and don't forget to do the daily Cheltenham competition being run by @MCLARKE for real money. 🤑🤑