LePapo
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Posts posted by LePapo
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For tomorrow, I’ll just bet on Scotland-Russia. The spread a week or so ago was 43,5 which was huge for this match. I just forgot to bet on that and now it’s around 33-35 I think which I think is a bit high but not enough to get involved. Scotland is resting their main players for their crucial match against Japan and Russia imo has performed really well during this WC. So I can’t see this being a blowout like SA or NZ against Canada and Namibia. I’m on -5.5 conversions @2.20. Laidlaw is not playing so it should be Adam Hastings who kicks the conversions and penalties. I did some research on his stats and he has an all time record of 52/72 conversions , about a 72.20% conversion rate. The other one that might kick conversions as well is Peter Horne but according to the stats he has a lower conversion rate than Hastings. On the other hand, Russia have shown little in attack in this WC, their one try came after a mistake in the opening match so I expect little from them tomorrow and their Fly half Kushnarev is not starting tomorrow and it will be Gaisin who kicks the penalties and conversions (I imagine) I found he has an all time record of 18/25 = 72%. So to have +5.5 conversions with that conversion rate (72% for both) there should be around 8-9 tries which I just think it’s quite a lot for this match. Also I’m on no team to score 40 points at 2.25. Both teams have been really poor offensively in this WC and even if Scotland manage to score a few tries early in the match I can see them playing with less intensity and resting more players once they got the bonus point. 4 tries are 20 points if they are converted it’s 28, still 12 points away from 40...
Argentina Usa: nothing that I particularly like. Argentina are already out but a victory against Usa will guarantee qualification for the next WC. I read that there’s still some motivation as it’s probably the last world cup match for several players.. If I had to bet, I’d be more on the argentinian side
Wales Fiji: I have an outright on Fiji , I need them not to score 3 tries. Regarding the match not much appeals here. Wales have not disappointed in the WC and I think they can easily beat France in the QF.
So all in all it’s just two bets for me tomorrow both with Unibet
-5.5 conversions (2.20)
No team to score 40 points (2.25)
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First shock of the tournament today! Matavesi had a shocker today scoring just 1/3 conversions and missing a penalty... same for Volavola who missed two conversions which eventually costed them the match. Probably not betting for tomorrow's matches, maybe backing USA on the handicap is the most interesting option as teams have struggled to cover big handicaps but I'm not entirely conviced.. Any suggestions for tomorrow?
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Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65...
-5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet
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after a solid opening match, i’m now 2-2 with overall less than a unit lost.
ive bet on russia +29.5 against samoa, i haven’t seen yet a blowout in this world cup and teams are struggling to cover big handicaps (italy , england, japan). i was quite impressed by the russian side on friday. they put up a decent performance for about 50 minutes against japan. samoa is not a team that scores lots of points , in fact their highest score in the last 3 years was against usa B (48-26). so i think a 29.5 is quite a big task for the samoan side. had russia not play just a couple of days before the match this would definitely be a full stake bet for me.
also i think the current handicap on argentina tonga is quite short. tonga was really poor yesterday against england, they never were a threat in attack and if england hadn’t made lots of handlings mistakes this would have been a huge loss for tonga. on the other side , argentina needs to win this match to keep alive any chance they might have to qualify to the QF. in theory they should go all in to win this match and to get the bonus point. i’ve already bet on -29.5 a days ago but the spread now is set at 23.5-24.5.. i’ll just wait the confirmation of the line ups ...
i’m quite tempted on the handicap for uruguay against fiji as well. the line is currently at 31.5 i think and this might be a bit high given that fiji play on saturday.
other than that, the outright bets are going better than expected. this is so far a low scoring world cup. i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that.
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tough loss for argentina and for me. referee not spot on to me but you can’t give away like that 40 minutes in a world cup. still fuming about the decision to kick the penalty instead of going for the line out especially because their maul was solid during the match. i’m not betting on SA NZ, i’ll just enjoy a nice match of rugby. i like your bet on a yellow card to be shown , good luck
i imagine now argentina will do everything to get a bonus point against tonga and usa. can’t see france putting a fight against aus or wales. i would love to see argentina and england getting through the group phase
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2 out of 2 for me. The handicap was never in doubt maybe a bit during the first 10 minutes of the second half but overall it was a solid bet. +2.5 scored penalties looked nowhere near to be a winner at half time but eventually it was..
Not quite sure for tomorrow yet , the handicap on SA looks the most solid bet for me but might risk a bit more and bet on 1-12 points margin on SA.
I'm tempted to back argentina, i think there's been a bit of overreaction as they've lost 10 of their last 11 matches but truth is they've played 6 of them against NZ, SA and Australia and one more against barbarians.. Argentina usually overperforms during the WC, also they play with lot of pride which might be the differential in the match. they have nico sanchez who is more accurate than a sniper, so they should be fine with penalties and conversions..
Also, i've made an early bet on Arg -29.5 against Tonga.. the 92-7 loss against the AB shows how weak is their defense..
I'll skip aus fiji from the betting persective...
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I'm tempted by the 39-40 points handicap on Russia as well and +2.5 penalties to be scored at 2.20. I can see the russians deciding to shoot instead of going for a line out if the score is quite close or even japan early in the match just to be ahead in the score. They played a test match back in novemeber and japan won 32-27 after russia wasted a 22-10 lead at the first half. 7 penalties were scored in the match which would cover the spread...(although circumstances now are totally different) I think there's too much pressure on Japan, I even read today (cant remember if it was the captain or the coach) that said they were not favourites to win this match!! it can be a long match for japan if they dont get an early lead which will take some pressure off them. I think they'll eventually outclass russia but can't see them winning by more than 40 tomorrow.
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nice job mate, my bookie is offering 1.75 on less than 242 conversions to be scored which according to your stats is just a massive price. will have a bit of research myself but definitely i'm betting something on that ! also i'm probably betting on georgia to score +7.5 tries and uruguay to score -4.5 tries, i'm tempted as well by argentina to score +13.5 tries. originally i had planned to have a bet on japan to qualify but i'm not conviced, i will just follow them closely and maybe i'll have a bet on their match against scotland.
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My bookie offers Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10 and that will be my main outright bet. RB is just behind Ferrari and Mercedes. 1.75 on RB to win under 4.5 races looks value to me but not enough to bet on that. At 1.9ish i'd bet some money.
5 units on Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10
- MarioDunav and BillyHills
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Liverpool to qualify looks massive value to me, the team is just flying now. They are at 2.8ish to do it so that'll be my main bet for the quarterfinals. They beat city 4-3 early this year and i think the team has improved since then, now they have van dijk, salah is messi now, lovren looks like a decent centre back now. I'll wait the international matches to finish to bet on them (in case salah gets injured) but all in all 2.8ish is a generous price to me, also aguero is injured , he's supposed to be fit for this match but he'll lack some playing time IMO. Liverpool DNB for the first leg looks a decent bet as well.
3 units on Liverpool to qualify at 2.85
2.5 units on Liverpool DNB at 2.00
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I had a bet on Edmund to beat Dimitrov in Brisbane haha . Tennis is an incredible sport, Anderson led him 2-1 in the first round and was a break up in the fifth but somehow managed to lost it, Basilashvili should have beaten him as well and Seppi was in full control for one set and a half but then he entered in some self destruction mode. And today he beats easily the number 3 in the world and he is now 6 sets away from winning a grand slam. just amazing
- CzechPunter and four-leaf
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F**k Seppi just checked out after the second set. Good run for the outright on him but a bit dissapointed at the same time as he was set and break up in the second set and he was playing better than Edmund. Schwartzman played a good match today just rafa served so well on break points, now against cilic for a place in the last four. For the other round of 16 matches maybe no tiebreaks in Djokovic-Chung is the most attractive bet... but overall prices are right
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Impressive from Berdych, although I don't even consider him anymore to go deep in big tournaments he always manages to find a way to reach at least QF/SF in grand slams and it's been 8 years in a row doing so. He has one more match to play to reach QF but it's a winnable match for him so hats off. Thiem has every chance to reach the QF. I think it would be too much for Chung to beat Djokovic.
Regarding today's matches, I had thought about no tiebreak in nadal-schwartzman however odds are low imo. I imagine PCB run will end today. Kyrgios-Dimitrov is the best match of the day. I was expecting a more convicing performance from Kyrgios in the last round but he couldn't outplay tsonga and beat him with 3 tiebreaks. It should've been a 5 setter but tsonga threw away a 5-2 lead in the last TB. Dimitrov has a good serve so this match might feature a couple of tiebreaks. This should be a close match and I think there's slight value on dimitrov however not worthy enough to risk my money. And finally I'm backing seppi to get past edmund but with low stakes. Edmund physical condition is in doubt after that 5 setter under almost 40 degrees. I was expecting hotter conditions today to bet a bigger amount here but let's just keep it reasonable. Also the 40/1 on Seppi to reach the last four is alive and kicking so no need to overbet on him.
1.5 units on Seppi to beat Edmund at 3.15
- DrO and CzechPunter
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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
If Zverev plays like he did against Gojo in the first two sets, he's going to win. If not, he's going to struggle. I mean, neither guy has been too impressive recently, Chung hasn't done all that much either, he only beat the out-of-form Isner before the AO and then the tired Medvedev in the previous round. Perhaps slight value on Chung, perhaps.
Yeah spot on, it depends on which zverev turns up the one that played against gojo or the one that played agiasnt fabbiano. Chung beat a tired medvedev under almost 40 degrees so it was a bit expected, maybe after all there's no much value on chung. I'll just watch this match, no bet for me.
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Is anyone else considering to bet on chung to beat Zverev? 2.60 looks a bit high to me given Zverev is not proven in these conditions and Chung is playing some good tennis recently. And for sunday, odds on Seppi seem a bit generous as well. Edmund played a five setter today (Seppi too but against Karlovic) and took a MTO early in the match. The italian has beaten federer and kyrgios in australia so conditions suit him. He's on good form so honestly I think he has every chance to get past edmund on sunday.
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Damn what a choke from Shapo even worse than the one from fett. He had held his serve EASILY during the whole match, had just been broken once, 11 straight service hold then time to serve it out and he fails and the rest was history. Overall, Shapo played way better than Tsonga. The frenchman needs a massive improvement for the next round if he wants to stay in the tournament. Edmund and Cilic too solid today. One of Edmund Basilashvili Karlovic and Seppi will play the QF. That means Kyrgios or Dimitrov will have a decent chance to play the SF. Starting to believe this can be Kyrgios opportunity (no jinx)
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Second round starts tonight, i'll bet on the players I mentioned a couple of days ago with a couple of extra bets that i found interesting. I fancy Shapovalov to beat Tsonga and I also like the bet on "to be a tiebreak? Yes" My bookie offers me 2.50 which I find an interesting price, both are more serve orientated players and this surface is a bit faster than normal hard courts. So I think there's a nice chance that the match features a tiebreak. On the other hand, I like "to be a tiebreak? No" on simon-PCB, both players are good returners, break serve lots of times, so i expect quite a few breaks in this match. I had considered Simon to win but the price is not attractive to me anymore. And finally I've decided to back Harrison to continue his run down under.
I would have liked to bet on NO TIEBREAK on Schwartzman-Ruud but my bookie doesn't offer that option. I'm having also a small bet on Seppi to reach SF. His section is really open now so why not trying a big longshot?
For wednesday I placed an early bet on Gojow.... to win a set against Zverev. He just didn't look solid today, Fabbiano failed to serve for the set twice!!
4 units on Harrison to beat Cuevas at 1.63
3 units on "To be a tiebreak? No" on Simon-PCB at 1.95
2.5 units on Shapovalov to beat Tsonga at 2.52
2.5 units on "To be a tiebreak? Yes" on Shapo-Tsonga at 2.50
2 units on Istomin to beat Edmund at 2.87
0.5 units on Seppi to reach SF at 40
It feels like it could well be a clean day with full of winners or a solid 0-5 to start the second round.
Good luck to everyone
- CzechPunter and four-leaf
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First day of the open gone and 5 seeds are already out and lots of americans as well. My outright bet on anderson didn't last a day and it's a shame because that section of the draw is quite open now. Sock was poor today and pouille improved his record here to a flawless 0-4.
For tomorrow i've just considered donaldson but i think value now is almost gone. Then in the other matches I struggle to find some value, maybe verdasco that can produce another shock.
There are some early odds for wednesday matches and i like quite a few underdogs here. Simon looked well today, he's shown good form recently and has a nice record here while PCB really struggled today against an unkwown player. Then I fancy Istomin, again he's shown good form recently, good run in brisbane and it seems he likes conditions here (last year he beat djokovic) He'll face edmund who is having on a great form as well but he's played a 4 hour match and given how these two are playing I think 2.90 for istomin is great value. And finally Shapovalov against Tsonga, he beat him easily back in august, he outclassed tsitsipas today, has a great serve, good mobility while tsonga has just play his first match of the season so he might stll be a bit rusty. Then I think harrison should be too much for cuevas on hard court and i would have liked a bigger price on millman to continue his run here but at 1.65 i'll just ignore this match.
I'd like to read your thoughts about today matches and your early predictions for round 2.
goodluck
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3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
What do you mean with +10.5 games on shapo-tsitsipas?
Yeah it is a bit confusing, i should have written +10.5 games on set 1.
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The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter
0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25
0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50
1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10
1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7
For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.
And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman
And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him.
I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.
Good luck for everyone during this fortnight
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first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under
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anything can happen tomorrow. Chile need to avoid a loss in order to assure at least play-offs, Peru and Colombia will fight for one spot, a victory secures qualification to WC while a defeat will probably mean elimination. Argentina need to win in Ecuador but the problem is that they last won a match there in 2001. Paraguay need to beat Venezuela to finish in the top 5.
Paraguay seem poor value to me, Venezuela have been playing well lately. 3 draws in a row against Colombia, Argentina and Uruguay. I think Paraguay will eventually win the match because its their only chance to go to WC but I think it will be a tight match, if I had to bet on a team it will be Venezuela +1.5 should have a decent chance.
Brazil look a bit value to me given they are simply the best team in SA. 1.7ish look a bit generous, the only problem will be their motivation because if Chile get a point that could be enough to eliminate Argentina.
Argentina at 1.40 is definitely no value to me. They need to win but they are just not scoring their opportunities and now they'll play in altitude which for teams like Argentina is always a problem. Their last victory in Ecuador was in 2001. Messi struggles in altitude so it will be a tough match for argentinians.
Peru will try to qualify to their first WC in the last 35 years. They play at home and will have a whole country behind them. On the other hand Colombia bottled a 1-0 lead in 3 minutes and now they might miss the WC. Colombian players are better but IMO Peru are a better team. I think this will be a close match and to me odds are fair.
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For this round, I'll just have a small bet on Europa to qualify at 3.80 (think there are bigger odds). I have no idea about TNS but in this round almost all the teams have the same level I'd say with the exception of San Marino Andorra and Armenia. So i'll bet on Europa as speculation/fun bet, i think bookies find it difficult to price these matches as there's almost no way to compare these teams. Also players from gibraltar teams are usually third division spanish players that go on a loan for a season and i reckon they have a decent level for this round. I can't have a welsh team to qualify at 1.2-1.3....
1.5 unit on Europa to qualify at 3.80
Rugby World Cup 2019
in Rugby Union Predictions
Posted
Ufff bad loss here, Russian defence all over the place and Scotland punishing every Russian mistake.. Hastings pretty accurate today. Failed analysis from my part. Have a bet remaining on fiji -1.5 tries...