Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept

[bowles10]

Ascot Haydock Wolves (AW) Dundalk in here please ! :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept onto Ascot for Friday for the start of a decent few days at the Berkshire track, they key tomorrow will be those that handle the softer conditions as its coming down here in bucketloads at the moment 2.00 APACE Apace finally found the winners enclosure on its 3rd start, winning at Folkstone last time on soft ground. Running off a mark of 80 in this Nursery, the horse could well be in a bit lightly off that mark on favoured ground. Trainer isnt doing too bad either with a 25% SR in last 2 weeks. 2.35 SPLINTER CELL Not many in this race have any sort of form on a soft surface, Botti's horse does and that could be key again. It also stays the trip ok. It has won off a mark of 90 which would put the horse in with a greta shout here. Has the up and coming Buick in the saddle also. Gay Kelleways ex italian horse may be the danger at a decent price. 3.10 ALICE ALLEYNE This could be the 2nd of Stoute's winners on the day if the horse improves again after its victory at Goodwood last time out on soft ground when partnered by Fallon. Moore takes the ride back for this race. 6f could be the answer to this horse and expected to be around the placings again 4.20 BRICK RED I mentioned this horse after its 1st run and then missed it whilst on holidays. A pal of mine knows the connections and they were well pleased with the win at Kempton. It comes up a grade now and can improve again as its lightly raced and a higher mark is not beyond this one, only goes up 3lb for last win. Balding had 2 big priced winners at the weekend. so 4 horses for tomorrow all with live chances, think it may be best to hit the singles and play some small ew trebles/accy

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Any guesses to what the going will be like at Ascot today lads?

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept I'm just making the assumption there'll be a bit of cut. 2:35 Ascot - Hypnotized - 2pts @ 5/1 (StanJames) Lightly raced 3 year old who has won twice from 8 runs so far in his short career, he has bundles of ability but has a tendency to pull hard and hang during his race. He is now stepped up from 1m to 1m 2f which I think could do the trick. Jamie Spencer is reunited with this colt and he has been the jockey that got the most out of him with form reading 1-1-4-2-0. The run where he didn't figure in the finish was in a hot handicap at this course on lightening quick ground where he was short of room and didn't get a clear run until the final furlong, he ran on that day to finish 17th of 27 but hadn't a hope of doing any better. He was then sent off 5/2 favourite last time out over a mile at Kempton but didn't travel throughout and finished 3.5 lengths back in 6th place. He is certainly a better horse than those runs suggest and the ground and extra trip today may just do the trick and bring more out of him. Cheekpieces were applied on his penultimate start and they are left on today for the 3rd race in a row. Since they were applied they seem to have stopped him from hanging and pulling hard and if Spencer can get him settled at the back of the field I think that the extra 2 furlongs could see him go very close, he is the sort that should appreciate a bit of give in the ground and with heavy showers at Ascot at the moment he could get that ground. Michael Bell doesn't come to Ascot too often and this is the only fellow he sends out here today, the last time he sent out one horse to this track was last month and that was a winner. Bell has said that Hypnotized is doing some good work at home and looking back to himself so I'm expecting a good run today and I doubt the 5/1 price will be around for too long come the morning. He has raced over 1m 1f on Good ground, he ran very well that day and came second just going down by a neck to Soul Station who hasn't run since. My selection was closing all the way to the line but couldn't get there and looked as if he'd stay another furlong, which he didn't get since. He was however 6 lengths ahead of the 3rd placed horse in that race, Beachfire, who has since notched up a hat-trick of wins off marks of 80, 85 and 91. That form looks very good to me and leads me to believe that the extra distance and slower ground is exactly what Hypnotized needs. He's also well in at the weights and has the highest official rating of the field and is certainly open to more improvement. All in all the 5/1 looks very generous and I've priced him up at 3/1. Rock N Roll Ransom is the big danger in my opinion and he's the reason it's only a small to medium stake on my selection as he's lightly raced and highly progressive but often runs into trouble but certainly warrants respect with Fallon back on board but I think with a clear run and taking to these conditions that the Michael Bell horse has all the ability and conditions needed to do well here and he's my selection for the race. 3:10 Ascot - Kellys Eye - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) Highly progressive 3 year old since joining the Brown yard after racing for Brain Smart as a two year old. He started this season off a mark of 72 and is now rated 94 which is tremendous progression. He placed on his first two efforts for his new yards then notched up a quick hat-trick at Ripon and was subsequently rated 96. He flopped on his last 4 runs, not beaten by far on any occasion but didn't get the result needed to seem "impressive" and I think that's why he's currently on offer at a crazy price of 25/1. He was hampered on his penultimate start at Ripon and finished 3l behind Gap Princess who is a good horse. Last time out he came 19th of 25 in the Ayr Silver Cup, on the face of it it looks a terrible run but he's a lot better than that and traveled well throughout and didn't get a clean run through despite looking likely to give a big challenge and even hit 2.62 in running, although I can't understand that. He was drawn high which is usually the place to be at Ayr but the low side seemed to be quicker with a lot of the higher drawn horses running poorly, more than likely due to a moderate pace being set stand side and a rapid gallop set on the other side. Kellys Eye was 8 lengths behind the winner in the end but with a clearer passage and a faster run race he'd of been a lot closer, in my opinion. The ground was very quick for Kellys Eye on the last 3 runs and with slower ground here I think he has a very good chance of getting one of the four places available at the very least. He likes to be raced tracking the leaders and he has the perfect position to attack from stall 15 of 16 and has a lot of the pace around him. The slower/softer ground and great draw will give Kellys Eye a good chance of placing if he runs to ability and with four places paid the 25's looks massive. There could still be more to come from this Noverre gelding and he should strip fitter for that run a week ago. Jamie Spencer takes the ride on this fellow for the first time which is interesting, he doesn't often ride for the Brown yard but from 4 rides he has 2 wins (50%) and a 2nd place. Spencer is riding reasonably well of late and despite a few poor rides he is certainly a positive for this horse and he should be able to get her settled in behind the leaders from this good draw and hopefully produce her late on as he can do so well at times, it's either that or he'll ruin her chances altogether. This is the only horse that the Brown yard send here tomorrow to a track they have only visited on 2 occasions before and I reckon they'll be expecting a good run from their progressive 3 year old. He certainly has a good chance with the ground softening and a good jockey on board and Kellys Eye is a 10/1 shot in my book so the 25's are absolutely huge, with 4 places paid being a big advantage assuming nobody pulls out as there is just a dead 16 runners at the moment. Could cause a shock and outrun his price tag. He's worth small each way stakes. 3:45 Ascot - Dyna Waltz - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill) Quite a good three year old filly who won the Lingfield Oaks trial beating Timepiece into second. She was upped from 7f to 11f miles that day and stayed on very well suggesting she'll stay this extra furlong, she showed a good attitude to win despite being off the bridle a good few furlongs out, she's very lightly raced with only 7 runs to her name and has plenty more to come. The ground is ideal for her today as anything too fast doesn't really suit her and if a little bit of cut stays in the ground it'll be even more suitable as she seems like the sort who'll enjoy a softer surface. Trained by John Gosden who has been in great form of late and has a good 14% strike rate at the course. William Buick gets the ride and he has been in great form since the last week of August with many a winner, if he can get her settled in behind the pace setters she has a good chance of going close here if staying the extra furlong, she looks a potentially classy sort over these middle distances and have that perfect mix of pace and stamina. She ran in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time out, she was stepped up to 1m 6f for the first time. She challenged 2f out and looked a big danger but she didn't see out the trip and faded badly to come last, beaten by 30 lengths. She's now stepped back in trip to 1m 4f, which based on that Lingfield run, should be ideal for her. She wasn't seen for 4 months through injury and may just have needed that run at Doncaster to get back into the swing of things and now, 2 week on, she should prove fitter and will hopefully find a bit of form now dropped to Listed level. This Ascot track should suit her and she should get a race run to suit on possibly soft ground which I think she will appreciate, assuming the rain keeps coming. She ran here as a 2 year old over 1m in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at this meeting last year and came 5th of 9 over a trip that she probably doesn't have the speed for, she only finished 3l behind the winner Hibaayeb who won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes this year. If proving as good as she was early on in the season and it's just a case that she needed the run then I certainly think she can out run her price here and give a good account of herself, she's an 8/1 shot in my book so the 14's look big and with the stable form and conditions to suit it seems very generous to me. Good luck guys. :hope:hope:hope

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Oil Strike - Ascot 3:10 I feel this horse has good place prospects tomorrow. Its last run was impressive i thought. The draw seems to be very important here over 6 furlongs and it pays to be drawn high. It has a lovely sit in Stall 16 and should be able to grab the fence just like it did last time and should be hard to pass. It has won over the distance 2 times thus far and its last run was off a mark of 88 when it won a tad cosily over 6 at Lingfield and is only upped 4 pounds tomorrow which i feel is fair myself. Ian Mongan has only rode this horse once before and he won on it that time so he has a 100% record on the horse. I feel it has a good chance tomorrow due to the draw, current form and should get the rail which can be vital. I rate Kelly's Eye as a potential outsider that can cause an upset and would be the danger for me. £10 e/w @ 16/1 (VC) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept No Poppy - Haydock 3:20 Should have a very good chance tomorrow. According to the stats, you must be drawn high here over 6 furlongs and it has a nice pitch in Stall 7 of 10 runners. Ran in Class 2 company last time and ran a very creditable 4th in a very big field and is now dropped into a Class 4 race tomorrow. Is also a front runner so could be very hard peg back and should fill a place tomorrow. Is a distance winner which is a plus. Has never run on tomorrows going forecast of soft ground but its record on the nearest to that, good to soft, is 2 runs and 2 places so should cope with the ground. Allen/Easterby combination have had a terrific season to date and that is also a plus. I feel it will go off in front and might not be for catching. I feel the biggest danger might be Riverdale £10 e/w @ 9/2 (Bet365) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Marvo - Haydock 4:30 In 1 mile races at Haydock, 1 out of every 4 races have been won by the widest stall of all which is a very good win strike-rate. Marvo is in Stall 12, with 12 runners taking part so should be able to get the rail and have an advantage over the rest. Runs off a mark of 77 tomorrow, only 1 pound higher than its last success so is well weighted if back to its best. The forecast ground tomorrow is soft, and its record on soft ground is 1 Win - 2 Places - 1 Unplaced so that is a very tidy record with it being in the places 75% of the time on the ground. If reproducing its last run where it only went down to Credit Swap by a neck it should go very close. It will be held up and come with a fast late run , hopefully a winning one. I would rate Play It Sam as the big danger. £10 e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365) BOG

[markmywords]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Aidy Poppy's Rose ran at Pontefract yesterday I think you meen no poppy.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept

Aidy Poppy's Rose ran at Pontefract yesterday I think you meen no poppy.

Thanks mate.. My mistake.. ;):cheers

[Spooner]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Ascot 14:00 - Apace 6/1 Hills Not many fancied Apace when scoring in soft ground at Folkestone LTO, he should get conditions to suit this afternoon. She should have alot to offer here coming from Sir Michael Stoute stable and with conditions to suit, she may be the answer in the opener. Wolverhampton 18:45 - Quinsman @ 7/1 Bet365 Quinsman had a fine spell on the AW tracks last winter, as a result he went up in the handicap and was looking held in some starts, I thought he ran ok at Ascot when upped in class. Also, the run lto over C&D suggested maybe he is capable off this mark and could go close again.

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept 2.35 Ascot These classified stakes race tend to cause a few upsets but this looks extremely weak and most are questionable characters and same can be said for Rock N Roll Ransom for the Cumani team but he made a promise start to his racing career when winning a maiden in good style and then beating the well though of Rule Maker next time out in handicap hasnt gone on since then really but hasnt had much luck in runing last twice and he could still be improving and is one of the least exposed sort in this field and with Fallon riding out of his skin at the moment! 1pt win rock n roll ransom 7/2 vc 3.45 Ascot I think Ferdoos could be hard to beat she has made giant strides, beating several useful sorts on debut in fantastic style on the AW, and did similar in a 6 runner handicap beating the the battle hardy and very useful sea of heartbreak by 6lengths! On OR she has a little to find but is unexposed and still open to plenty of improvement and could easily improve past several of these in time. 1pt win Ferdoos 2/1 sj 2.10 Haydock Lady Paris entered my notebook and many others I would have thought on her debut run sent off as a 25/1 outsider she showed good speed early on before running a bit green but eventually stayed on very strongly, that form is working out well with horse behind her winning next time out. She does have to prove these ground conditions to her liking and looking through her pedigree its hard to find any answers but if she does she could be hard to beat, she is also entered for 2yr old listed event at Redcar so is clearly thought of in the yard! 1pt win lady paris 7/4 bet365

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept SQUIRES GATE 2.45 Haydock. Place Lay. Decent enough form in context with the race, but not much more to come in my opinion and looks vulnerable today against a few that should improve and do as well as expected. The race has a chance of being run unsuitable for him too, so all in all I think he could struggle.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept YER WOMAN 3.10 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. Hannon and Hughes in good enough and looks a big price for today's race on this type of course. Could do with dropping another few pound in weight, but the current mark of 90 would give her chances of going close today. I'll take the 33/1 with Victor Chandler.

[Spooner]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Wolverhampton 21:15 - Pebblesonthebeach 15/2 Hills Been trying to work out the lucky last for a while now, I've gone with Seb Sanders mount. Back down to a mark of 69 where he ran well at Sailsbury three runs ago, probably best run to date when fitted with cheekpieces, which are back on tonight. I like the step up in trip a furlong, cause he has hinted before that this may suit. Should have every chance in this.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept 16:30 Haydock Once again I will be siding with Mr Tate's Leviathan as I really do believe there is a handicap in him before the season closes and I believe he has a strong chance of doing so today. Only three runs so far in 2010 and he has improved on every run so far and I fancy him to go one better than last time today. Was 2nd at Doncaster over 7 furlongs and I really thought he was going to win that day but the eventual winner stayed on held on well. Is raised 3lbs for that placed effort but he is still on the upgrade and is likely to progress once again having only had 8 runs to date. The step up in trip should be fine and could seek out extra improvement in him. Drops down in class today which should give him a better chance and the Soft ground shouldn't pose too much of a problem for him considering he has won and placed on Good To Soft ground conditions. If the gaps appear for him at the right times today then I have no doubts about him winning this race. 3pt Win Leviathan @ 4/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept

2.35 Ascot These classified stakes race tend to cause a few upsets but this looks extremely weak and most are questionable characters and same can be said for Rock N Roll Ransom for the Cumani team but he made a promise start to his racing career when winning a maiden in good style and then beating the well though of Rule Maker next time out in handicap hasnt gone on since then really but hasnt had much luck in runing last twice and he could still be improving and is one of the least exposed sort in this field and with Fallon riding out of his skin at the moment! 1pt win rock n roll ransom 7/2 vc 3.45 Ascot I think Ferdoos could be hard to beat she has made giant strides, beating several useful sorts on debut in fantastic style on the AW, and did similar in a 6 runner handicap beating the the battle hardy and very useful sea of heartbreak by 6lengths! On OR she has a little to find but is unexposed and still open to plenty of improvement and could easily improve past several of these in time. 1pt win Ferdoos 2/1 sj 2.10 Haydock Lady Paris entered my notebook and many others I would have thought on her debut run sent off as a 25/1 outsider she showed good speed early on before running a bit green but eventually stayed on very strongly, that form is working out well with horse behind her winning next time out. She does have to prove these ground conditions to her liking and looking through her pedigree its hard to find any answers but if she does she could be hard to beat, she is also entered for 2yr old listed event at Redcar so is clearly thought of in the yard! 1pt win lady paris 7/4 bet365

Well done mate!! Nosed out of a treble.. well done though :ok:clap

[James Bondage]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept ALANA BANANA (5.45 Wolverhampton); 16/1 with Bet365; 1/2pt each way bet; quarter odds 1st - 3rd. Drops back 2f in trip after three runs in Ireland at 7 - 9 furlongs and a handicap run at Newmarket over a mile. The filly has weakened quickly in the end stages of her races looking like she is more of a sprinter. There has been interesting support at some firms. betfred have her halved from 16/1 to 8/1 but the 16/1 is still there at Bet365 who have lengthened her to the price. I think she will show better off her current rating at a more suitable distance. BENFLEET BOY (4.55 Ascot); 12/1 with Bet365; 1/2pt win bet Fifteen runners in this race so I am not having an each way bet rather a small win bet. He looks like good value at 12/1; his handicap win was 4 pounds higher than today's rating. Ran well over hurdles in Spring and has run well off a break before.

[chris34]

Re: Flat racing - Friday 24th Sept Cheers Aidy was a bit gutting cos I did have a sneak Patent on em aswell lol! Nevermind still well up for day so happy with that! Now onto the sand! 5.45 Wolverhampton Several inform sorts come into this race with no less than 4 last time out winners all carrying 6lb penalties! Of those carrying penalties double carpet is largely inconsistent and is effectively 9lb higher back on AW tonight and is 2lb wrong compared to his new mark, bouncy bouncy is unexposed but is another 1lb wrong under a penalty tonight although he could improve. For me Dreamacha was an eye catching runner at brighton on penultimate race when racing alone on wrong side of track at brighton and proved he was inform when running out a clear cut winner back at brighton last time you by 3 lengths and he is actually 2lb well in compared to his old mark and still looks handicapped to win more races yet as he is lightly raced and improving! 1pt win dreamacha 3/1 sj 6.45 Wolverhampton Another good looking handicap and I really dont fancy the current favourite Argaum for all he represents a strong stable he showed very little in maidens and has showed a modest level in handicaps but doesnt appear to be improving or do anything fast, he is also not guaranteed to stay this longer trip on breeding! The 2 I like the look of is Quinsman who improved rapidly on the AW throughout the winter and clearly appreciated a couple of runs under his belt after a break and being gelded because he came back to his best last time out when a good second over CD off this mark and if building further on that he could still remain on a workable mark. The other that interests me is Ateeb who although again on breeding isnt guaranteed to stay this longer trip but from a yard that do well when stepping horses up in trip and yard in reasonable form. He has shown marked improvement on handicap debut after 500+days off the track when involved in a blanket finish when 3rd by a Short head quickly put up 4lb for that effort and followed up with another sound effort when 2nd to inform Aurora Sky again handicapper taken a view that was worth another 3lb having pulled well clear of the rest of the field, clearly improving and will be interesting to see if stepping up in trip brings out a little more. 0.5pt win quinsman 6/1 vc 0.5pt win ateeb 9/2 vc 8.45 Wolverhampton Eastern Hills looks thrown in this race, running off same mark when clear cut winner last week on turf in apprentice race so escapes penalty and same jockey is onboard and is able to claim 7lb today so is effectively 7lb lighter today but as I have often said these apprentice races form doesnt hold up very well and no end of times winners look chucked in their next races but fail so gonna oppose at the price when theres plenty of ew value to be had! Philosophers Guest is an Irish raider which always have to be feared here at Wolverhampton and this looks a weak race he has been found, he won an apprentice handicap at Balinrobe in June and has since run respectably on next 4 starts off reivsed mark in better races than this, useful claimer Fahy has been booked taking a handy 5lb off and trainer has a 33% strike rate around here 7 winners from 21!!! 0.5pt e/w philosophers guest 10/1 vc