You can't beat the bookies on Draws.

[discovery]

Hello there, I was looking in particular to the draw games. You need to find 1 draw in 3 games in order to not loose money. It mean we should bet in leagues that have over 33% of draws in its history. Unfortunately no league has such a record at the end of the season. However, a couple of leagues are over 33% at the moment. But the bookies change the odds for draws for such league. For example normally a draw is rated at 3. In these leagues that have more 33% of games in draws, the odd is 2.8 or 2.9. I guess you can't beat these smart guys at betting in draw. Bookmakers change the rules so that we can loose. :wall It would be helpful if we can find the summary records (wins/draws/losses) for each week. Is there any site that provides such data? Thank you Discovery

[aderuk]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. have you tried soccerstats. i pick 4 draws on a sat and do them in trebles,fourfold but i do find some of the european leagues offer very poor odds 19/10,2/1 etc for the draw which offers no value.

[Lardonio]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. Discovery, what you are referring to is just the bookmaker's overround; that's how they profit. Rather than being smart guys, they would be incredibly stupid and soon bankrupt if they offer odds of 3 in a league with 40% draws (just an example). The fact that bookmakers make a profit does not mean it's impossible to beat the bookies on draws.

[discovery]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. You can beat them if you find the 26% out 9 games that are always Draws. :) But how? :D

[coldpenguin]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. There is some confusement on this theory on beating the bookie. You are not worried if the bookie makes money. You are yourself up against the bookie. So on the Draws we will beat him in the long term. With the Value, plus with our tweaking of the stake to the odds. Then using last bet information for adjustments.

[That Foreign Guy]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. Because blind betting draws is not profitable it does not mean that betting on a particular draw is not +EV. I'd be willing to bet that betting all home teams or all away teams or all favourites or all underdogs would also have been unprofitable.

[yankeepaul]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. this season is my first attempt at betting draws and I am actually liking it a lot, but a couple points to consider (of course all my opinion) 1. You should only be risking about 1% of your bankroll per wager. If you are taking a draw betting strategy you are going to be playing more games than usual and also you will sustain losing streaks. You'll endure long streak where you don't hit a draw, but if you stick to a solid game plan and money management you will profit in the long run so basically if you are betting 10.00 a game, i recommend having a 1000.00 bankroll 2. Every loss will be a bad beat, deal with it and move on to the next day. If you get frustrated with Red Cards or 90 min goals, draw betting is not for you, in fact all betting of any sort is not recommend. So just don't get to emotionally involved in the results. Remember sometimes good bets lose and bad bets wins, it all evens out in the long run if you are a solid players. Same thing happens in online poker where player play more hands to eliminate the luck factor 3. Track your results Know your strengths and weaknesses. Last year when i bet soccer I actually found out that most of my profits came from away wins. Everyone has their punting strong point and weakness. Identify both and you will succeed long term. For draws find out which factor is helping you most. Is it identifying even matchups? Focusing on low scoring teams, etc. 4. Use resources on the internet Our generation of gamblers has one advantage over the old school. The internet. Use H2h stats, punters lounge threads, soccervista, etc. Don't hold too much weight in anyones opinion, but don't ignore the tools that are available for free 5. Be realistic in your goals I think aiming for a 30% strike rate is realistic and should generate a pofit. Anything else higher than this is a bonus. If you claim to hit 40% draws (over a long period of time) and have proof. I'll stop wasting my time and just tail you. 6. Have Fun We're here to make money but remember to have fun too. There is no better feeling in the world when everyone at a bar is angry at a boring 0-0 draw in serie b, but you are going nuts and enjoying it as if it were the finals of the world cup thats all for now good luck everyone

[SecondSight]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws. A typical English game has a 26.5 % of been draw required odds of 11/4 or 3.75 to break even over a wide range of games. Strong homes have less chance meaning not strong home games have a greater than 26.5 % chance. Low scoring games have more chance of been draws too. Derbies have slightly higher chance too. Look for games than are not strong home, low scoring, derby games that give 3.5 or greater and you should make a profit. But that is not easy :\ Hence I tend to avoid draws - where odds are wrong is usually where one team is favoured too highly against their true chances. The bet is often to lay the opposition if opposition is odds on (in particular) or back the other team to win.

[Xinakias]

Re: You can't beat the bookies on Draws.

this season is my first attempt at betting draws and I am actually liking it a lot, but a couple points to consider (of course all my opinion) ......... thats all for now good luck everyone

--------------------------------------------------------- Yankeepaul nice thread, Additional my input is about the so called "strong draws" Try to categorize the games in 3 groups : A: Potential very good draws B: Maybe a draw but not the one you will bet your money C: No way Draw Ofcourse there will be some deviation since each one has its own criteria , filters etc but moreless the groupage will be similar. If in the coupon of weekend there are 256 games and finally there are 60 draws you would initially think that these 60 draws would be devided as follow (apprx) A: 35 B: 20 C: 5 But if you go after the results and make this kind of listing (for example last weekend games) you will be suprized : A: 24 B: 19 !! C: 14 !! What I want to point out is that apprx 55% of the draws that coming are not the ones that a typical drawseeker would select!!! Examples: 1,40 SCHALKE 04 3,85 GLADBACH 1,45 LIVERPOOL 3,50 SUNDERLAND 6,00 1,50 CHARLTON 3,50 DAGENHAM & RED 5,00 1,45 LIVINGSTON 3,75 EAST FIFE 5,00 1,30 PSV EINDHOVEN 4,35 GRONINGEN 6,50 9,50 LEVANTE 4,70 REAL MADRID 1,20 1,40 SPORTING LISBON 3,70 NACIONAL MADEIRA 6,00 etc etc