Flat Racing 20th of September

[Aidymac]

Captain Scooby - Hamilton 4:40 I feel this horse should be fighting out the finish tomorrow. Tomorrows ground is a forecast good to soft which should be perfect for this horse's chances tomorrow. It has had 3 wins thus far, 2 of them being on good to soft and the other being on soft. Its record on good to soft ground is quite impressive, 2 wins - 3 places - 2 unplaced , which means it has been in the places on this ground 71% of the times it has ran on it. It has only ever had 1 run at Hamilton before, coming 4th of 6 but i can safely rule out that run as it was on good to firm ground. Its record over the trip of 5 furlongs is fairly decent also, 3 wins - 4 places - 5 unplaced so more times than not it is placed over the trip. It is on a fair mark tomorrow as it won off a mark of 72 back in 2008 and it runs off a mark of 68 tomorrow, it hasnt being put up in the weights despite a very good run in 2nd place last time where it was doing its best work late on. There is a bit of a draw bias towards high drawn numbers over 5 furlongs at Hamilton and this horse is in Stall 12 tomorrow, and with 13 runners it has a nice sit. I expect this horse to be coming late and fast tomorrow , possibly with a winning challenge but i am very confident it will be in the top 3 at the very least. I would rate Bronze Beau as the biggest danger. 1 Point win @ 13/2 (Hills) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September Freddie's Girl - Kempton 5:30 I think this horse has a big big chance tomorrow for 1 main reason, THE DRAW!!! Over this 6 furlongs at Kempton, this is a startling analysis, over this time period 24 of the 76 races were won by the horse drawn highest. Which is an astonishing 3rd of the time. The bias is generally towards high, but definately towards the horse drawn on the inside and this horse is in the highest drawn stall tomorrow, Stall 12. Not only that but this horse has been in decent form also. It has been 2nd on its last 2 outings which were at Lingfield. Has only gone up 1 pound and i feel the draw it has could be giving it a 4/5 pound lee-way because of the superiority of the draw analysis. Another plus is that this horse is a Course + Distance winner so Kempton track is no problem nor is the distance. Seb Sanders has rode this horse twice and both times it has come 2nd so Seb has a 100% place record on the horse. Im expecting a very big run tomorrow due to the draw, current form and C+D form and i feel the main danger would be Haadeeth. I marked it up as a 9/2 chance so the 7/1 ill gladly take. £10 e/w @ 7/1 (Hills) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September Walvis Bay - Leicester 3:20 Im going to take a chance on this one tomorrow because it is in good heart and another nice draw statistic i found. Over 5 furlongs at Leicester, 1 out of every 3 races have been won by the horse drawn in Stall 1. That is an impressive strike-rate. This horse is drawn in 1 tomorrow. This horse missed the break last time out when finishing 7th so i can forgive its last run, if producing the run before that when it won, it could well be enough to win here again tomorrow. This is a lightly raced horse and has already won 2 races thus far, at Ayr over 6 and at Ripon over 5!! The forecast ground tomorrow is good to soft, it has run over good to soft 3 times thus far and it was placed all 3 times so has a 100% place strike-rate on the ground and i like that. This horse should be in the mix again tomorrow if breaking on terms with a lot of things in its favour. £10 e/w @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG For the draw bias i have mentioned above where at Leicester over 5 furlongs there is a 33% win strike-rate from Stall 1, for the other two 5 furlong races at the meeting i will be doing 2 x 0.25 Pt e/w singles and they are as follows: £5 e/w Miss Moneypenni - Leicester 4:20 £5 e/w Wotsthehurry - Leicester 4:50

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September Tevez - Leicester 5:20 I feel this horse has a huge chance to follow up here in this race. In its last race it was slowly away, held up in rear, made great headway a couple furlongs out and then was hampered, it didnt get a clear run BUT it still went on to win the race rather comfortably and i feel a rise in the weights of only 4 pounds has been very leniant as it would have won by a few lengths last time out only for all the trouble. The headgear has been doing wonders for this horse the past month and its back on again tomorrow. It is a course winner, it won here at Leicester only 3 runs back so that is also a big positive. Cathy Gannon has rode this horse twice and both times she rode it , it won. That is a 100% win strike-rate and she rides the horse again tomorrow so i find that a huge plus as she is riding out of her skin at the moment, hard to believe she is a woman when you see her riding!! High drawn stalls seem to do the best at Leicester and Tevez is in Stall 14 tomorrow which is another plus. It is sure to go well and it could prove very hard to beat once again. I would rate Swift Chap as the biggest danger £10 e/w @ ............

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September 3.40 Hamilton Zapplamation has continued his slow steady progression this season, ran a little lack lustre last time out but has since been given a break and has a good record fresh. Also goes well with some cut in the ground and does stay further than this trip which could prove important in testing conditions. Does still look weighted to be competitive on the back of couple placed efforts off this mark before running lack lustre last time out! Yard in good form and often travels strongly so often provides good trading opportunity. 0.5pt e/w zapplamation 4.40 Hamilton All the usual faces in a northern sprint for this grade. Lost in Paris threatened to quickly go through the ranks earlier in the season but rather hit a brick wall a lot quicker than most expected but signs he was coming back to hand last time out when 3rd off a 1lb higher mark from a wide draw at chester and does have some noteworthy form on softer ground to suggest he could well be open to more on it! The other that catches my eye is the well handicapped Argentine who is 7lb below is last turf winning mark and offered best run for months when second to Mango Music last week who went on to finish a close 3rd the next day off 6lb higher mark and Argentine is infact 1lb lower than that run and if following up that good effort sure to be there, he would appear not to be the easiest to train as he often runs his best races in a very short period of time 3-5days apart! Also has a good record around here 3 from 8! 0.5pt win Argentine 5/1 hills 0.5pt win Lost in paris 8/1 hills 5.20 Leicester There was little wrong with Shesells Seashells defest last time out betean by an inform game sort. She still remains unexposed and potentially well treated only 5lb higher for her victory on her penultimate start at yarmouth on testing ground, slightly drier ground this time out could help as she shaped as though getting a bit bogged down last time out. 1pt win shesells seashells 4.30 Kempton Home Advantage came back from a break in good style to take a competitive handicap over CD in extremely eye catching fashion and a 4lb rise in the weights looks extremely light considering his progressive profile and unexposed and sure to improve more yet with a likeable attitude. Yard are in good form. 2pt win home advantage 5/2 pp

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September Todays Bets: £10 e/w Captain Scooby @ 13/2 (Hills) BOG £10 e/w Walvis Bay @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG £10 e/w Freddies Girl @ 7/1 (Hills) BOG £5 e/w Miss Moneypenni @ 16/1 (Bet365) BOG £5 e/w Wotsthehurry @ 20/1 (Bet365) BOG £10 e/w Tevez @ 7/1 (Betfred) BOG

[punterpete]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September 3.20 Leicester Fathom Five ew @ SP All wins have come over 5F including a course and distance win at Leicester. Not been on top form recently but acts on the ground and is effective in this field size and class and has won from this mark before.

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September Kempton 16:30 - Home Advantage 7/4 Hills (bog) WIN Been in good form over the summer and done well to win here over the C&D after pulling hard early, up again in class here but looks a good horse for Charlton stable and should go in again.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

Todays Bets: £10 e/w Captain Scooby @ 13/2 (Hills) BOG £10 e/w Walvis Bay @ 6/1 (Hills) BOG £10 e/w Freddies Girl @ 7/1 (Hills) BOG £5 e/w Miss Moneypenni @ 16/1 (Bet365) BOG £5 e/w Wotsthehurry @ 20/1 (Bet365) BOG £10 e/w Tevez @ 7/1 (Betfred) BOG

I like freddies girl too,draw is good as you say and has some fine speed ratings,its 12-1 across the board which is sometimes the problem taking the night before race...gl with your bets

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

I like freddies girl too' date='draw is good as you say and has some fine speed ratings,its 12-1 across the board which is sometimes the problem taking the night before race...gl with your bets[/quote'] Best Odds Guaranteed.. It worked in favour for me with Captain Scooby who is now a shorter price..

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

Best Odds Guaranteed.. It worked in favour for me with Captain Scooby who is now a shorter price..

yes but it depends on sp,freddies girl if fancied by connections will go off at 6 or 5-1 imo..hope it wins at 12s for you though fella

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

yes but it depends on sp' date='freddies girl if fancied by connections will go off at 6 or 5-1 imo..hope it wins at 12s for you though fella[/quote'] Luck of the draw isnt it!!! I have it backed again at 12/1 but for the sake of my thread have left it at 7/1 for that!!

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September ETARRE 3.00 Kempton. 0.5 points each way. Needs to improve, but the step up to 7f should suit and should handle the aw surface here. Open race with being full of unexposed types, but at around the 25/1 mark (exchanges) I think it's value.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September WESTMEATH 3.05 Ballinrobe. 1 point lay. Done nothing wrong, but has to prove himself on the soft today, and with being American bred, it's 50-50 whether he'll handle it. So, with also racing against a few that should give him a run for his money, I'd much rather be a layer than a player at around evens.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September SHARP SOVEREIGN 3.10 Hamilton. 1 point lay. Very consistent and again should run his race. However, up in the weights and I feel 1 or 2 will be to good for him today. The price is there to oppose at around 6/5.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September CORNUS 3.20 Leicester. 0.5 points each way. Needs his best, but today can see him come up with it. The trip and ground suits and he gets in off the same mark as recently. The price is very big on his best efforts.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

Captain Scooby - Hamilton 4:40 I feel this horse should be fighting out the finish tomorrow. Tomorrows ground is a forecast good to soft which should be perfect for this horse's chances tomorrow. It has had 3 wins thus far, 2 of them being on good to soft and the other being on soft. Its record on good to soft ground is quite impressive, 2 wins - 3 places - 2 unplaced , which means it has been in the places on this ground 71% of the times it has ran on it. It has only ever had 1 run at Hamilton before, coming 4th of 6 but i can safely rule out that run as it was on good to firm ground. Its record over the trip of 5 furlongs is fairly decent also, 3 wins - 4 places - 5 unplaced so more times than not it is placed over the trip. It is on a fair mark tomorrow as it won off a mark of 72 back in 2008 and it runs off a mark of 68 tomorrow, it hasnt being put up in the weights despite a very good run in 2nd place last time where it was doing its best work late on. There is a bit of a draw bias towards high drawn numbers over 5 furlongs at Hamilton and this horse is in Stall 12 tomorrow, and with 13 runners it has a nice sit. I expect this horse to be coming late and fast tomorrow , possibly with a winning challenge but i am very confident it will be in the top 3 at the very least. I would rate Bronze Beau as the biggest danger. 1 Point win @ 13/2 (Hills) BOG

That has made my day!!! :nana:gimme

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September Well done fella. :nana you could have done the Mugs double today. http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,396708,00.html

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

Well done fella. :nana you could have done the Mugs double today. http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,396708,00.html

Im prone to the odd mug's double and to tell you the truth i didnt see that horse. Without lying i probably would have done a 2 quid double if i saw that running!! Crap , would have been sweet!!! Thanks Jimmy :beer

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 20th of September

Tevez - Leicester 5:20 I feel this horse has a huge chance to follow up here in this race. In its last race it was slowly away, held up in rear, made great headway a couple furlongs out and then was hampered, it didnt get a clear run BUT it still went on to win the race rather comfortably and i feel a rise in the weights of only 4 pounds has been very leniant as it would have won by a few lengths last time out only for all the trouble. The headgear has been doing wonders for this horse the past month and its back on again tomorrow. It is a course winner, it won here at Leicester only 3 runs back so that is also a big positive. Cathy Gannon has rode this horse twice and both times she rode it , it won. That is a 100% win strike-rate and she rides the horse again tomorrow so i find that a huge plus as she is riding out of her skin at the moment, hard to believe she is a woman when you see her riding!! High drawn stalls seem to do the best at Leicester and Tevez is in Stall 14 tomorrow which is another plus. It is sure to go well and it could prove very hard to beat once again. I would rate Swift Chap as the biggest danger £10 e/w @ ............

Backed it at 7/1... Great day!! :nana:nana