HENNESSY Saturday 27th November 2.40 Newbury

[Carl]

from an email id thought to share with you, you lucky lads you ooo how i look after you. get us a beer and ill call it right Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m2f110y) Celestial Gold (11/4), Nil Desperandum (11/2), Ollie Magern (13/2), Lord Transcend (7/1), Royal Auclair (7/1), Frenchman s Creek (14/1), First Gold (16/1), Gunther Mcbride (16/1), Puntal (25/1), Lord Of The River (33/1), Midland Flame (33/1), Swansea Bay (33/1), Artic Jack (50/1), Supreme Glory (66/1) The Hennessy Gold Cup should be a race that can be sorted statistically with some sensible application of statistics. This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers, unexposed at the highest level. There is an abundance of strong statistics in this race, many of which will be publicly available but I think with a sensible and concentrated approach in the strongest trends will help to find the winner. The Issues Personally I am not expecting a shock result. I don't feel there is much strength in depth in this years race and the claims of the market leaders are strong. Deciding on which of these horses will win the race. There is no Outstanding runner from a statistical viewpoint and you have to decide what factors are the most relevant. What statistical failings are you prepared to forgive a horse for and why. CELESTIAL GOLD has to be forgiven the fact he comes from the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a notoriously poor trial race and he has to be forgiven several other factors like his age, and his record. BALLYCASSIDY has to be forgiven the fact he looks too exposed to win a Hennessy and he has had the wrong preparation over the wrong distances. LORD TRANSCEND is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but to bet him you have to turn a blind eye to his lack of Handicap Chase form, traditionally a Must in this race. You may then look to OLLIE MAGERN but he also fails certain trends in that he comes from a poor trial race amongst other factors. One thing we do know is that statistically there is no clear cut runner from the fancied runners that is flawless and all require us to make at least 1 allowance.Then you may feel the heavy market support for NIL DESPERANDUM is more significant than the statistical flaws. You have to also pay strong attention to FRENCHMANS CREEK as he comes out very strong statistically this year if you are prepared to forgive his age and his long term injury. The 4 Key Statistics There are 4 Compelling statistics that I want to draw your attention to that really ought not to fail and should help considerably with narrowing down the field before any other stats and variables can apply. I am not applying them vigorously and will explain why later in the analysis. Common sense has to rule with applying statistics but the strongest trends I can find in this race are as follows 1) Your horse should not have ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2) Your horse should have not had more than 20 career starts 3) Your horse must have been placed 1-2-3 last time out 4) Your horse must have run in a Handicap Chase before Statistical Application 1) Your horse should not have ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup The first angle I consider to be important is the relationship between the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Run November 13th) and the Hennessy (Nov 27th) as I believe the two races directly affect one another as they are so close together. * Relationship between the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Hennessy Both are Class Early season Handicap Chases. Personally I think the Hennessy is by far the easier of the 2 races to sort out .The Paddy Power gold cup is a very tough test ran 14 days before the Hennessy. I believe that a hard race in the Paddy Power Gold cup counts against a horse and it would be a truly exceptional performance to win a Hennessy over 26f, having come from a grueling test over 2.4 miles just 2 weeks before that .Although only 8 have tried this "double" in the last 13 years they have all failed abysmally. The 8 horses included horses that were beaten 20, 22, 23 and 60 lengths, 2 that Pulled up, one that fell when in last place and a 3rd that was easily beaten. I think you should severely question the chances of any horse that ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup .The following are the records of the 8 Horses that ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (today) and tried to win the Hennessy Bindaree - 7th in the Paddy Power - 5th in the Hennessy (beaten 20 lengths) Lady Cricket - Won the Paddy Power - 4th in the Hennessy (beaten 22 lengths 8/1) Red Maruder - 4th in the Paddy Power - 5th in the Hennessy (beaten 23 lengths) Norski Lad - 9th in the Paddy Power - Pulled up in the Hennessy The Outback Way - Won the Paddy Power - Pulled up in the Hennessy Challenger Du Luc - Won the Paddy Power - Fell in the Hennessy when last Commercial Artist - 4th in the Paddy Power - 3rd in the Hennessy Tipping Tim- 7th in the Paddy Power - 10th in the Hennessy (beaten 60 lengths) That suggests to me that we would be wise to question the merits of both CELESTIAL GOLD and OLLIE MAGERN ************** 2) Your horse should have not had more than 20 career starts * The Over Raced and Over Exposed types One key statistic for me in the Hennessy is the Following and this I believe tells you everything you need to know about what Type of horse is required to win this race. Horses that had 21 or more races over fences before have a very poor 0-47 record in the Hennessy. We can take that 0-47 statistic as a very solid one especially as 14 of the 47 runners that failed started 14/1 or under. We can also take the statistic further and look not only at the winners but at the First 4 places Number of Career Races that the First 4 horses home had 2003 - 6-13-31-15 2002 -18 -16-18-11 2001- 18-18-18-14 2000 -16-13-14-18 1999 -12-22-17-35 1998 - 7-13-12-16 1997 -14-34-7-10 1996 - 5-15-31-20 1995 -17-21-31-46 1994 -16-8-39 -20 This table (above) shows that the Vast Majority of winners had less than 21 starts in their careers. What you find is that lightly raced horses can win, (Strong Flow won with 6 starts in 2003 as Did Teeton Mill with 7 starts in 1998 and Coombe Hill in 1996 with 5 starts) but the majority has between 13 and 20 races and that included the placed horses. In fact if you look at the last 10 winners, none of them had over 18 career starts. The Hennessy is always won by an up and coming improving Chaser and horses that had less than 21 races fit that bill perfectly. In fact from the last 10 years, if you take the 40 possible places available, they have only been filled by horses that had over 20 races only eight times and that's a very low strike rate. Last year Take Control managed 3rd with 31 career races but he had already been placed in a previous Hennessy. He was the last horse to reach the frame with over 21 races since Spendid and The Last Fling in 1999 who were 2nd and 4th that year when overexposed. The 1999 Hennessy was a probably a statistical blip though as there were Only 13 runners that year, yet 7 of the 13 that ran were overexposed. In 1997 the Runner up did have 34 Career starts but that was Barton Bank who was after all a King George winner. Before that , the runner up in 1995 also raced over 20 times but he was Rough Quest who won a Grand National and who was after all beaten a long way in the Hennessy when runner up. You can also say that the 1995 Hennessy was another statistical blip as there were only 10 runners that year and 7 of the 10 had ran over 21 times yet they still could not provide the winner. Overall the History of this race strongly indicates that a horse that has had over 20 career races should be viewed as over exposed and very opposable. I would be very keen to avoid these types as History shows they simply don't win, and they very rarely even frame and those that have done have been King George and Grand National winners or had done so in years when the vast majority of runners had ran over 20 times. In terms of this years race, we can then question PUNTAL (32 Races) , FIRST GOLD (34 Races) , LORD OR THE RIVER (22 Races), SUMPREME GLORY (21 Races) , SWANSEA BAY (30 Races) and GUNTER MCBRIDE (25 Races) ********************** 3) Your horses must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out The 3rd Key statistic is that you simply must be in the 1-2-3 last time out. Horses that failed to achieve this before coming here have an appalling 0-77 record. You do not really want a horse that Failed to Place on his Latest start. Of Course it is possible that something may yet run and place, but at the moment we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time as we must assume they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy. After all, 25 of the 77 horses were no bigger than 14/1 in the betting. From the runners you can question the claims of OLLIE MAGERN and NIL DESPERANDUM from the Market leaders , as well as ARCTIC JACK , SWANSEA BAY , LORD OF THE RIVER and MIDLAND FLAME from the outsiders as none of these have recorded a 1-2-3 finish last time out. ************************** 4) Your horse must have ran in a Handicap Chase before Handicap Experience is a vital necessity for the Hennessy and going back to 1988 you can see the need for experience in Handicap Company before. 2003 - The First 3 home had 1-2-15 Handicap Chase Starts 2002 - The First 3 home had 7-0-3 Handicap Chase Starts 2001 - The First 3 home had 1-1-3 Handicap Chase Starts 2000 - The First 3 home had 1-2-0 Handicap Chase Starts 1999 - The First 3 home had 1-1-5 Handicap Chase Starts 1998 - The First 3 home had 1-6-5 Handicap Chase Starts 1997 - The First 3 home had 7-4-1 Handicap Chase Starts 1996 - The First 3 home had 2-1-11 Handicap Chase Starts 1995 - The First 3 home had 8-12-14 Handicap Chase Starts 1994 - The First 3 home had 1-1-11 Handicap Chase Starts 1993 - The First 3 home had 1-11-4 Handicap Chase Starts 1992 - The First 3 home had 11-2-0 Handicap Chase Starts 1991 - The First 3 home had 3-3-13 Handicap Chase Starts 1990 - The First 3 home had 1-9-1 Handicap Chase Starts 1989 - The First 3 home had 1-1-15 Handicap Chase Starts 1988 - The First 3 home had 8-14-8 Handicap Chase Starts You can see from the Above Tables that EVERY winner since 1988 had ran in a Handicap Chase before and from the 48 possible placings (1st x 3 places) we saw 45 of them filled by horses that had ran in a Handicap Chase before. In fact the ONLY 3 Horses that managed to place in this race having never run in a Handicap before were as follows. 1) Harbour Pilot the 2nd in 2002 who raced off 139 and was thrown in. He ended up rated 166 and finished 3rd in a Cheltenham Gold Cup the following March 2) Alexander Banquet the 3rd in 2000 but a horse that was soon to be rated 18lbs higher and won the Irish Hennessy Gold cup afterwards. He was also beaten 20 lengths when 3rd in 2000 so he hardly looked like winning. 3) The Fellow was 3rd in 2000 without a race in a Handicap Chase but as we now know He was Top Class and went on to win a King George and a Cheltenham Gold Cup. What this shows is that there is an extraordinary demand for at least 1 race in Handicap Company and that puts various question marks about several fancied runners in this Years race. These include LORD TRANSCEND (0 Handicap Chase runs and only 1 race in Novice Chases) and NIL DESPERANDUN (0 Handicap Chase runs and only 4 races in Chases. **************************** There are several more trends that I feel are worth bearing in mind. These are as follows. 1) The Previous years Cheltenham Festival Since 1996 the winners profile changed. Prior to 1996 there was no problem with horses running well at the previous years Cheltenham festival. Since 1996 though all the Hennessy winners did not race at the previous years Cheltenham festival except the 2000 winner Kings Road. He didn't have a hard race at Cheltenham though; he just hunted around at the back of the Sun Alliance and came home in his own time. No other past winner post 1996 had ran at Cheltenham and from the 24 possible placed runners during that time, 17 of them were filled by horses that did not run at Cheltenham. Obviously a run at Cheltenham can both take it out of a horse and gives the handicapper a chance to assess it accurately. It can be done but I do feel its a negative. 2) Badger Beer Wincanton Form Horses that come from the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton have an excellent record. From the 13 that have tried in recent history there were 3 that went on to win the Hennessy and it is the best trial race available. 3) Age - Horses aged 10 and over struggle Horses aged 10 and over look weak. The full record is 0-32 in the last 12 years. It is very unlikely that a horse of that age would have enough scope and have enough in front of the handicapper to beat younger improving chasers. I cant possibly comprehend a horse aged 10 or over winning this race. In fact the only horse that managed to frame aged 10 and over in the last 12 years was the Top Class Barton Bank who was 2nd in a small field way back in 1997. What I would say though is to not count FRENCHMANS CREEK as a 10 year old as he has had over 2 years off the track so I would view him as more of an 8 year old myself and I wouldn't be discounting him at all as I think he has a massive chance . 4) 6 Year Olds - Don't believe stats that show you 6 year olds can not win. Many guides and Publications will tell you that 6 year olds have poor records.You may see stats opposing 6 year olds. Before Strong Flow won as a 6-year old last year, the stats showed that 19 of the previous 20 winners had been aged 7, 8 or 9 and that 6 year olds were very poor and opposable. Prior to STRONG FLOW (2003) you had to go back to One Man in 1994 to win as a 6 year old and he was thrown in that year. I would be wary of the "oppose 6 years old" arguments. After all Behrajan was beaten in a photo as a 6y-old in 2001 and the 3rd in 2002 was also a 6 year old and with better horses and training methods that stat could be weak and about to change. I would therefore advise that we don't make 6 year olds a "negative" at all these days (especially if they have a light weight) and I would be far more inclined to see horses aged 10 and over as the real negatives. 5) Weight - There is a Bias against high weights There is a Bias against high weights. Horses that had over 11st in weight are 1-38 .Only High Class Horses can carry over 11st in weight. There have only been 4 that have done this in the last 20 years and they were Suny Bay, Arctic Call, Burrough Hill lad and Brown Chamberlain. In fact 18 of the last 24 Placed horses carried less than 10st 13lbs. You do need to be aware that this could be a race that's slowly moving towards horses over 11st. Last years winner carried 11st and it is a trend that could shift towards classier horses soon but as it stands you don't really want a horse with over 11st unless you can find very good reason to bet them. 6) Temperament - Horses that ran in Blinkers or a Visor before have a poor record (1-41) Obviously a High Class race won by a High Class horse and no surprise that horses that require headgear should be viewed suspiciously. 7) Jumping Ability - You do not want a horse that failed to complete twice recently Obviously this is not a race to be making jumping errors in. The Statistics show that If a horse failed to complete in at least 2 of his last 6 races he is vulnerable as the record of this type is 0-45. You can only afford 1 incomplete start in your last 6 races 8) Recent Class Form The record of horses that came from Class A or Graded Class is 2-75 and this type should be seen as opposable. You want a horse that's about to show Class form and not really a horse that has just shown it especially as these types are often accurately judged by the Handicapper. Considering that horses coming from Class A or Graded Class are either dropping in Class or running in the same class, the 2-75 statistic looks quite strong. 9) Distance Droppers Horses that ran over 3m 2.5f or longer last time are only 1-44 and are out speeded and possibly lack the speed to win this race. The only horse from the 44 that tried that had managed this was WHATS UP BOYS who was 2nd in the 2001 Whitbread Gold Cup before winning the Hennessy. Its unusual and such horses should be treated cautiously. 10) Seasonal Debutantes Seasonal Debutantes have a weak record. Only 2 managed to win from 58 that tried and that was mainly several years ago. In fact 10 of the last 11 winners had a run that year 11) Stamina and Class The last 11 winners had all a) Won over 3 miles and b) Won a Class B race or better as this race demands both Class and Stamina. 12) Second Season Chasers This is a race that strongly favours Second Season Chasers. 13) Official Ratings The last 12 winners were all rated between 135 and 149 except for Suny Bay (162) This statistic is boosted by the fact that 18 of the last 24 placed horses were also rated between 135 and 149. ********************************* STATISTICAL SUMMARY This is a quick approach to provide a score or rating for each horse based on the stats discussed above. Failing a Major Statistic is -2pts Failing a Minor Statistic is -1pts The Horse with the LOWEST Number of points is the best statistically Below is the perceived Finishing order statistically FRENCHMAN'S CREEK Fails 0 Major Statistic and Fails 2 Minor Statistic - TOTAL 2PTS Celestial Gold Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 1Minor Statistics - TOTAL 3 PTS Lord Transcend Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 1Minor Statistics - TOTAL 3 PTS Gunther Mcbride Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 2 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 4 PTS Midland Flame Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 3 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 5 PTS Royal Auclair Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 4 Minor Statistics -TOTAL 6 PTS Artic Jack Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 4 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 6 PTS Swansea Bay Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 2 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 6 PTS Lord Of The River Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 3 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 7 PTS Supreme Glory Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 5 Minor Statistics- TOTAL 7 PTS Puntal Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 6 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 8 PTS Ollie Magern Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 2Minor Statistics - TOTAL 8 PTS Nil Desperandum Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 2Minor Statistics - TOTAL 8 PTS First Gold Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 8 Minor Statistic - TOTAL 12 PTS SOME NEGATIVES FIRST GOLD 33/1 This class French runner has huge statistical problems to overcome. He has Topweight of 11st 12lbs and very few horses have managed that, and as an 11 year old that task is compounded further. The full record of horses with over 11st is only 1 from 38 in recent years and the placed horses have also performed dismally when carrying large weights. His age (11) is also a serious problem. The full record of horses aged 10 or over is 0-32 in the last 12 years and he lacks no scope and must be vulnerable to just about everything in this years field. PUNTAL 40/1 Has a host of statistical failings to overcome. He is a seasonal debutante (2-58 record) and has fallen in 2 of his last 3 races. He is also a 4th season chaser with 32 races under his belt making him one of the most exposed runners in the race. He also ran at last years festival which appears a negative these days and he has to overcome all these burdens rated 149 and thats a tall order as 11 of the last 12 winners had less of a task when successful. It would be an astonishing training performance were he to win. THE MAIN CONTENDERS CELESTIAL GOLD 11/4 I have let him in the Provisional Shortlist simply as a mark of respect as he is favourite but I don't like his chance as he fails one of the key statistics having won the Paddy Power Gold cup. Clearly Cheltenham is his track, and he may not be as suited to Newbury and his only start there resulted in a poor run. Because he comes from the Graveyard race, and because he is favourite I feel he has to be opposed on grounds of value anyway and if the Paddy Power is as poor a race as I think it is, then he has it all to do. I also feel that he is vulnerable on the fact that he ran very well at the 2004 Cheltenham festival. History shows that in recent years a strong run at last years Festival is not the best preparation and this horse was 2nd in the National Hunt Chase last year. I also think his price is very short. The truth is nobody knows how his Cheltenham win will affect his chance. David Johnson has already pointed out the possibility that he might bounce, as he has done before and although well handicapped and likely to improve at the distance he has no real right to be 11/4 with so many serious dangers and flaws in his own chance. LORD TRANSCEND 7/1 Very interesting horse. In terms of ability he is easily talented enough. He was a high class Hurdler rated 150, and although the winner of his only chase start last November in a Novice Chase, he appears thrown in off 135. Only having 1 race over fences could easily be his downfall, and his inexperience is his biggest problem. A Canter round in a sole novice chase just 365 days ago is simply not good enough to offer us a decent value bet at his price impressive as he was. He jumped superbly that day and looked a high class prospect. After that win he suffered a tendon injury. His connections cant hide their belief in him. Howard Johnson recently stated "He's a very special horse and I didn't want to take any chances with him, so I had him fired and gave him plenty of time off. It wasn't that serious, but we went very steady with him as I adore him. He has been given a provisional rating of 135 and racing off a light weight he could win a Hennessy no problem if we can get him ready in time. The alternative would be to bring him back in January and bring him back for the second half of the season". The issue is clearly whether the horse has shown he is ready to run and has fully recovered from his injury. Should he run he can win as he is a clean winded horse that can win fresh and loves a left handed track. He wont be risked unless he is absolutely right and if he does make the race you have to consider him as he has a similar profile to last years winner . I could not advise him as the selection because of his inexperience and the fact that he has No Handicap form. As explained earlier that is a very serious statistical failure and why he isn't my bet. You also have to worry about the Stable Vibes which have been mixed all week. He has been described as not a certain runner. He has been reported to have missed work due to weather conditions and a horse as inexperienced as this would need to be at his ultimate best to win a Hennessy on his 2nd start and the vibes don't suggest that. ROYAL AUCLAIR 7/1 This was certainly one of the best value bets in the race when he was 16/1 but at 7/1 he is no longer. Had you asked me 2 weeks ago for the most likely selection then this horse would have been the one despite not being statistically perfect? Statistically he is technically overexposed with 23 runs (You don't want more than 20) but I wouldn't have a problem overlooking that fact as he has so many other factors in his favour. Clearly a breathing operation has transformed him and horses can improve a massive amount for that. His resolution in the past has been called into question but his trained believes he wasn't quite right last year and he now may be over his problems. His trainer stated recently "Last year it took forever to get him right, but this time his work has been brilliant, and he has shown enormous improvement on the gallops at home. He has been laid out for the Hennessy all year and I feel that he could now well be about to deliver the long awaited promise. Breathing operations can transform certain horses and this may be the key to this horse. He comes from a highly significant trial (Badger Ales Trophy) at Wincanton, a race that was used successfully by the 1996 winner (Coombe Hill), the 1998 winner (Teeton Mill) and the 2000 winner (Kings Road). It would be very short sighted to ignore his multiple strengths based on the failure of statistics that he only just fails as several others also fail multiple stats as well. At 16/1 I would have been prepared to take the view that he is now a horse that has been rejuvenated by a wind operation and his already high class form last year (3rd at the Cheltenham Festival and runner up in the Whitbread) can now be bettered. At 9/1 though I am not. I don't like the fact that he had a hard race at last years Festival, and then ran again before having a hard race in the Whitbread. He isn't the normal type you associate with a Hennessy and he looks overexposed and vulnerable. The issue with him is whether the improvement he can now find from his wind operation can match or better the improvement that is certain to be found by the lighter raced types and the improvers. At 16/1 I would have been prepared to risk him at that price to find out. At 7/1 I am not. OLLIE MAGERN 6/1 Exciting Novice. My first problem with him is his run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup which I have to see as a negative. Reasons why are explained elsewhere. He also failed to finish 1-2-3 last time and although you could argue that a 4th last time in the Paddy Power should not automatically bar him; the fact it was in the Paddy Power Gold cup is a compounded problem. This will be his 5th race this year and that's very abnormal for a Hennessy winner and certainly for a horse that has never won a Handicap Chase before. It would be pointless to assess his run against Celestial Gold last time on revised weights as the victor between them in the Hennessy may depend on involuntary factors such as who recovers best from the race. He has a chance as many are also statistically flawed but betting him does force you to ask several questions about his profile. I don't see why he should be backed in particular over several of the other front runners in the market. NIL DESPERANDUM 9/2 This has been the big Ante Post gamble this week having been backed down from 20/1 to 7/1 and that does look highly significant. He was A promising Novice Chaser that missed most of last year with injury and has not raced since April 2004 when 4th or 4 at Punchestown. It would be pedantic to rule him on failing to be in the 1-2-3 last time out, but he does have other problems to defy. I suppose you can argue that as Strong Flow came from a Novice Chase last year before winning this, that it is perfectly possible to do the same but it has not been the norm and the full record is only 1-34. The record of Irish raiders was poor before Gingembres win in 2002 so you could argue that that should not be held against this horse either. My 2 worries are lack of handicap experience and the distance. NIL DESPERANDUM has never run in a Handicap either over fences or hurdles before and that's a problem for me, especially as he has to do that on his seasonal debut. I have already illustrated the dreadful record of horses that lacked Handicap Form before earlier in the analysis. The Trip is also a question mark. He hasn't run within 4 furlongs of this test before despite his trainer stating 'Two and a half miles might just be a bit short for him, especially first time out. We see him as more of a three-mile horse. Prior to his market support you could have argued his well being was an issue. After all He was due to run at Gowran park but missed that run after a stone bruise forced him to miss a lot of work, and his intended race at Down Royal in Beef or Salmons race was also cancelled. He didn't look the same horses last year when returning from injury and it remains to be seen if he is back to his best. You could argue that his recent support in the market is so compelling that you have to assume he is showing signs that he is back to his best. Whether that means he can win a Hennessy on his seasonal debut is entirely another matter. He may well have been a sensible risk at 20/1 but at 9/2 he isn't for me. FRENCHMANS CREEK 14/1 This has an outstanding chance for me now that the race has cut up and now he has had a prep race. Statistical punters may throw him out as a 10 year old automatically but that's a big mistake as although he is a 10 year old he has missed over 2 seasons and is effectively "net 8 years old" . He also passes all the 4 key statistics in not being over raced, having less than 20 starts , not running in the Paddy Power and having Handicap Form. Looking at the other stats he sails through almost all of them. He has a light weight . He missed the festival last year. His record is excellent and he has won or been placed on the vast majority of his starts over fences. He ran very well in his comeback race behind Best Mate recently on his 1st start for 30 months recently and although he could "Bounce" , I don't feel he will as it wasn't a gut wrenching run. He could be the best value in the race at 14/1 now the ground has gone to good.

[punter66]

Re: HENNESSY Saturday 27th November 2.40 Newbury That email was written by an enthusiast who seems to have covered everything, just had a loook at the card and form and there's nothing to put me off it, thanks for sharing Herp :ok i'm having some of that.