Value Thread Strategy

[Aidymac]

I have been listening to Ginger and what he was saying to me the other day and i feel it was ignorant of me to say that its all about picking winners not finding value. I have dwelled on it the past 2 days since he mentioned and i have come to the conclusion that my "market-movers thread" may just be beginners luck but only time will tell and i will keep at it... HOWEVER i must now also take Ginger's advice into consideration and i now fully agree with him that value is the key (I was at the library this morning and i read a book on horse racing, for the whole 200 pages i reckon the word value was mentioned in each one). Lets face it, im 23, Ginger and a lot more people on here and out there in the horse racing world say value is the key, so who am i to say it isn't!! I am glad i didnt get stubborn about it and took the advice on board so i am going to put time and effort into finding a horse or horses each day that are overpriced. I have one for tomorrow at Donny and i will keep a track of it. I do have 1 question though for the value-punters out there... Would ye recommend always backing e/w on an overpriced horse ??? Or do ye always go for the win ??? And if you mix and match what would make you be safe and back it e/w? Help would be appreciated thanks, i just need to devise my staking strategy and it will either be win only or e/w only.. I will put up my first selection soon, thanks. :loon

[StuSimmy]

Re: Value Thread Strategy Several factors come into whether backing a horse each way or not and everybody probably has different views on this, somebody posted about each way betting in the past 7 days so read through that thread I would say but the main reason for most people backing each way would depends on a few key things, field size is probably one of those and I would say an odds against favourite would swing some people towards backing a horse each way. I guess it depends how strongly you fancy the horse to win or place, I know there is place markets on a few firms and on betfair but some people just like backing each way in the win market in case the horse does win.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Value Thread Strategy Taking time to consider and look in to other peoples opinions shows the makings of a successful punter Aidymac. My thoughts on each way betting are on the "Each way betting" thread. :ok Good luck with this thread, but hope you continue with the market movers. If the profit continues for long enough I will have to reconsider my own opiinions. It's interesting Dave Nevison says he's considering backing horses who continue to shorten through his tissue price; and not backing those getting bigger through the tissue, to even greater value price (according to his tissue). My own take on it is that lengthening considerably in price suggests connections don't think the horse is fit / inconvenienced by conditions. ie The horse has not got the chance his form suggests. Although a poor write up / word in the racing media can also effect price. I like to back the value the night before racing or early / mid morning; rather than take the ones who've gone out to a value price. Although sometimes back such horses as savers.

[Aidymac]

Re: Value Thread Strategy

Taking time to consider and look in to other peoples opinions shows the makings of a successful punter Aidymac. My thoughts on each way betting are on the "Each way betting" thread. :ok Good luck with this thread, but hope you continue with the market movers. If the profit continues for long enough I will have to reconsider my own opiinions. It's interesting Dave Nevison says he's considering backing horses who continue to shorten through his tissue price; and not backing those getting bigger, to even greater value price (according to his tissue).

I will have a look at that thread now mate!! And an interesting point on Nevison as you would think he would be backing the ones woth the bigger price??? Can i ask you your own personal opinion on Ella Ginger, its my first time trying to find value and it took me about 4/5 hours of reading form and watching videos to find this 1 selection.. :unsure Just wondering if you would class it as value yourself?

[Cityfullergoals]

Re: Value Thread Strategy Value is a word used in almost every serious betting mans armour However, value can be interpreted by many punters in many different ways If you mark up a horse that you think is a 6-1 shot, and you can get 12s then obviously you will feel that you have value, whereas someone else may think its a 14-1 shot, and duly underpriced For many many years I have won money betting solely on the draw bias at certain tracks. I don"t know if you remember the famous Thirsk tricast that paid humungous odds 25-1, 33-1, 25-1 for the horses drawn 25, 24 and 23 in a 25 runner field Even after monstrous payouts the bookies still seemed to price up according to form, but nowadays you will see the top three in sprint handicaps at Beverley all shortened up even if they have no form If you are a professinal then you HAVE to find value, whereas ordinary every day punters will seek it as far as possible, but its a hard tough game Enjoy it, and try to come out on top - thats the best advice I can give after nearly 38 years in the game

[Gingertipster]

Re: Value Thread Strategy Sorry Aidymac, not worked the race out, so don't know if Ella is value or not.

[Aidymac]

Re: Value Thread Strategy

Value is a word used in almost every serious betting mans armour However, value can be interpreted by many punters in many different ways If you mark up a horse that you think is a 6-1 shot, and you can get 12s then obviously you will feel that you have value, whereas someone else may think its a 14-1 shot, and duly underpriced For many many years I have won money betting solely on the draw bias at certain tracks. I don"t know if you remember the famous Thirsk tricast that paid humungous odds 25-1, 33-1, 25-1 for the horses drawn 25, 24 and 23 in a 25 runner field Even after monstrous payouts the bookies still seemed to price up according to form, but nowadays you will see the top three in sprint handicaps at Beverley all shortened up even if they have no form If you are a professinal then you HAVE to find value, whereas ordinary every day punters will seek it as far as possible, but its a hard tough game Enjoy it, and try to come out on top - thats the best advice I can give after nearly 38 years in the game

Thanks very much , good write up mate!! I feel myself my strong-point is more football and golf, especially football but i will never be happy until i find a successful way to winning in horse racing!! Even then i probably wont be happy :lol

[Gingertipster]

Re: Value Thread Strategy

Help would be appreciated thanks, i just need to devise my staking strategy and it will either be win only or e/w only.

As far as staking is concerned, the amount I bet is directly linked to the price and how much value is available. e.g. If I believe a horse has a 25% (fair 3/1 shot) and is available at 4/1 (20%). I'll have 25 points (as I think it's a 25% chance) plus 5 points because the difference between the two prices (20% and 25%) is 5%. So staking 30 points @ 4/1. Something I believe is a 9.1% (10/1) chance available at 14/1 (6.7% call it 7%) will have 9 points + 2 points = 11 points @ 14/1. This way horses with a greater chance of winning get a greater stake. Yet those at higher prices win more, which to me is advisable as the amount risked is lower. Considering staking 2 points per % point above my tissue price instead of just 1, staking more for the amount of value.

[RussP]

Re: Value Thread Strategy Aidy, please post your bets in the appropriate daily thread as per the 'changes to PL thread'. New threads are to be used for discussion:ok