Football draws

[Rick121212]

I've started papertrailing a new system that involves draws in football. I've always been interested in draws because that's what gets bookies their money (because most people want to back a win) and with the odds generally being around 3.00, I only need to get a third of the results correct. I have a way of picking games that will be draws and they mainly come from Ligue 2 and Serie B but also include the Premiership and the Dutch Premier League although to a lesser extent. I use a straight 10 points each game and started with a bank of 100 points. I will post the games and results of the last couple of weeks after this.

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws

Week One Date	Odds	Match	W/L	P/L	Bank
14/08/2010	3.25	Blackburn vs Everton - EPL	L	-10.00	100.00
13/08/2010	3.00	Angers vs Boulogne - FD1	W	20.00	90.00
13/08/2010	3.20	Evian vs Vannes - FD1	L	-10.00	110.00
13/08/2010	3.00	Istres vs Tours - FD1	L	-10.00	100.00
13/08/2010	3.00	Laval vs Metz - FD1	L	-10.00	90.00
13/08/2010	3.00	Nimes vs Chateauroux - FD1	W	20.00	110.00
13/08/2010	3.00	Troyes vs Nantes - FD1	L	-10.00	100.00
13/08/2010	3.00	Sedan vs Grenoble - FD1	L	-10.00	90.00
14/08/2010	3.30	VVV vs Heracles - ERE	L	-10.00	80.00
15/08/2010	3.25	Willem II vs NEC - ERE	L	-10.00	70.00

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws

Week 2
20/08/2010	3.20	Clermont vs Angers - FD1	L	-10.00	60.00
20/08/2010	3.10	Istres vs Dijon - FD1	W	21.00	81.00
20/08/2010	3.20	Le Harve vs Reims - FD1	L	-10.00	71.00
20/08/2010	3.20	Metz vs Vannes - FD1	L	-10.00	61.00
20/08/2010	3.00	Nimes vs Grenoble - FD1	L	-10.00	51.00
20/08/2010	3.20	Sedan vs Boulogne - FD1	W	22.00	73.00
20/08/2010	3.00	Troyes vs Ajaccio - FD1	L	-10.00	63.00
20/08/2010	3.00	Laval vs Nantes - FD1	W	20.00	83.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Frosinone vs Empoli - ISB	L	-10.00	73.00
22/08/2010	3.10	Grosseto vs Ascoli - ISB	W	22.00	95.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Livorno vs Sassuolo - ISB	L	-10.00	85.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Modena vs Piacenza - ISB	L	-10.00	75.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Padova vs Novaro - ISB	W	20.00	95.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Pescara vs Siena - ISB	W	20.00	115.00
22/08/2010	2.90	Portogruaro vs Cittadella - ISB	L	-10.00	105.00
22/08/2010	3.20	Reggina vs Crotone - ISB	W	24.00	129.00
22/08/2010	2.90	Triestina vs Albinoleffe - ISB	W	18.00	147.00
22/08/2010	3.30	Heracles vs Feyenoord - ERE	W	26.00	173.00

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws Has anyone got any opinions on what they think about the profitability of draws in football and if anyone has any similar ideas???

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws

Week 3
27/08/2010	3.00	AC Ajaccio v Metz
27/08/2010	3.00	Angers v Sedan
27/08/2010	2.90	Clermont Foot v Le Havre
27/08/2010	3.00	Dijon v Nimes
27/08/2010	3.00	Nantes v Vannes OC
27/08/2010	3.00	Reims v Troyes
27/08/2010	2.90	Chateauroux v Evian
28/08/2010	2.90	Albinoleffe v Livorno
28/08/2010	2.90	Ascoli v Modena
28/08/2010	2.87	Cittadella v Torino
28/08/2010	2.87	Crotone v Padova
28/08/2010	2.90	Piacenza v Frosinone
28/08/2010	2.87	Varese v Atalanta
29/08/2010	3.25	Aston Villa v Everton
28/08/2010	3.10	Udinese v Genoa
29/08/2010	3.10	Chievo v Catania
29/08/2010	3.10	Fiorentina v Napoli
29/08/2010	3.10	Sampdoria v Lazio
28/08/2010	3.30	NEC v Heerenveen

This weeks selections. All the odds are Bet 365. Quite concerned about a lot of the Serie B matches odds dipping below 3.00 but they were the main source of profit last week so :hope Doubt I will get 50% of selections as winners like last week.

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws Forgot one game 30/08/2010 2.90 Grenoble - Le Mans Also the Chateauroux-Evian game is on 30/08.

[Observer]

Re: Football draws What's your way of picking games Rick, in details?

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws interesting start you've almost doubled your bankroll i too am curious what your criteria is? I spot pick draws time to time, usually using a site like scibet or h2h stats as a start point. But i'm still a novice and picking draws, usually i'll look for an away favorite vs a defensive minded or team that can'tt score anyways good stuff to start

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws also when i bet on a draw i don't know how to cheer for one (although when one it hits, its quite exciting) i often find an early goal by the underdog or less superior team to be a good sign that a draw will occur i get nervous when the favorite scores first

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws I've actually made a mistake or two in the posts above but the next post with this weekend's results will be posted tomorrow night with the correct bank. The start to this weekend has been very positive and is looking good at the moment. It is a very simple system. Basically, I found statistics that show the percentage of games that drew in many European Leagues last season, split between the odds of the home team. I pick the games that fall between the odds which had over a 3rd of games drawing. I hope that makes sense. I didn't expect it to make such a successful start but things seem to be going well.

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws i understand the League selection process, i don't understand this part "...split between the odds of the home team." for instance your Ligue 2 selections on Friday, you picked every game except Tours Laval, what made this game different from the others (other than the fact that Tours have the best player in Ligue 2 :) )

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws For example, (not true, just for example's sake) say in the German Bundesliga last season, when a home side's odds are between 1.51 and 1.90 the chances of a draw occurring was 37% whereas when the home side's odds were between 1.91 and 2.30, the chances of a draw was 30%. If the chances are above 33% these are the games I pick. Ligue 2 and Serie B are high drawing leagues, therefore there are generally a lot of picks for these leagues.

[1882]

Re: Football draws :clap good start Rick, where do you pick up your stats?

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws I googled it and it came up, can't remember now. Although the start has been good and this weekend has been so far solid (2 more games tonight), I've back tested on Serie B last year with the same stats, and I came out with quite a large loss, so my early optimism is not quite as optimistic. :( It wasn't very strict back testing so i might have made a mistake but I don't think I did. When I get more time I will do some more back testing and see if I can come up with any conclusions.

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws lol another draw in Series B just hit today, lol 50% of games have ended in draws to start, amazing, love it Anyways still quite unsure about how you select one game over the other, but you are hitting and profiting well, so guess it doesn't matter much keep it up

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws

Week 2
20/08/2010	3.20	Clermont vs Angers - FD1	L	-10.00	60.00
20/08/2010	3.10	Istres vs Dijon - FD1	W	21.00	81.00
20/08/2010	3.20	Le Harve vs Reims - FD1	L	-10.00	71.00
20/08/2010	3.20	Metz vs Vannes - FD1	L	-10.00	61.00
20/08/2010	3.00	Nimes vs Grenoble - FD1	L	-10.00	51.00
20/08/2010	3.20	Sedan vs Boulogne - FD1	W	22.00	73.00
20/08/2010	3.00	Troyes vs Ajaccio - FD1	L	-10.00	63.00
20/08/2010	3.00	Laval vs Nantes - FD1	W	20.00	83.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Frosinone vs Empoli - ISB	L	-10.00	73.00
22/08/2010	3.10	Grosseto vs Ascoli - ISB	W	21.00	94.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Livorno vs Sassuolo - ISB	L	-10.00	84.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Modena vs Piacenza - ISB	L	-10.00	74.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Padova vs Novaro - ISB	W	20.00	94.00
22/08/2010	3.00	Pescara vs Siena - ISB	W	20.00	114.00
22/08/2010	2.90	Portogruaro vs Cittadella - ISB	L	-10.00	104.00
22/08/2010	3.20	Reggina vs Crotone - ISB	W	22.00	126.00
22/08/2010	2.90	Triestina vs Albinoleffe - ISB	W	19.00	145.00
22/08/2010	3.30	Heracles vs Feyenoord - ERE	W	23.00	168.00

These are last weeks results again as they were incorrectly worked out.

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws

Week 3
27/08/2010	3.00	AC Ajaccio v Metz	W	20.00	188.00
27/08/2010	3.00	Angers v Sedan	L	-10.00	178.00
27/08/2010	2.90	Clermont Foot v Le Havre	L	-10.00	168.00
27/08/2010	3.00	Dijon v Nimes	L	-10.00	158.00
27/08/2010	3.00	Nantes v Vannes OC	L	-10.00	148.00
27/08/2010	3.00	Reims v Troyes	L	-10.00	138.00
28/08/2010	2.90	Albinoleffe v Livorno	L	-10.00	128.00
28/08/2010	2.90	Ascoli v Modena	W	19.00	147.00
28/08/2010	2.87	Cittadella v Torino	L	-10.00	137.00
28/08/2010	2.87	Crotone v Padova	W	18.70	155.70
28/08/2010	2.90	Piacenza v Frosinone	W	19.00	174.70
28/08/2010	2.87	Varese v Atalanta	W	18.70	193.40
29/08/2010	3.25	Aston Villa v Everton	L	-10.00	183.40
28/08/2010	3.10	Udinese v Genoa	L	-10.00	173.40
29/08/2010	3.10	Chievo v Catania	L	-10.00	163.40
29/08/2010	3.10	Fiorentina v Napoli	W	21.00	184.40
29/08/2010	3.10	Sampdoria v Lazio	L	-10.00	174.40
28/08/2010	3.30	NEC v Heerenveen	W	23.00	197.40
30/08/2010	2.90	Grenoble v Le Mans	L	-10.00	187.40
30/08/2010	2.90	Chateauroux v Evian	L	-10.00	177.40

Here is this weeks selections, not quite as positive profit this week but still going up. I still think this is fluking it though.

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws Profit: 77.40 Staked: 480.00 Yield: 16.13%

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws those games that loss in ligue 2 weren't bad i watched most of them and they should've ended in draws, like your approach with draws though, in the long run I guess you just have to hit 35% to make profit

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws Yeah exactly, only need just above 1 in 3 games right to gain profit. The 2nd week was ridiculously good but I don't expect that often. But as I say I want to do some back testing and see if it will work. I have my doubts but I still think that betting on draws has potential.

[Xinakias]

Re: Football draws Nice work Rick, I am also betting only draws. What I do is study all games from scrach. Odds, tradition and rumors may play some role but I insist to make up my list of Draws based mainly on football critirias like: - Scoreboard position and statistics (points, draws, goals) - Current form of teams - Home and away strength (WDL, goals etc) - How they played and with whom last 6 games - Injuries, transfers, new coach etc - What they are targeting in the specific game (e.x. are they satisfied with a draw?) - Do they have games (cup, europe) during next days - Watching games (some times results are not telling the truth!) -etc I have end up after a lot of research that I should not take into consideration the proposed predictions of specialists (news paper, sites etc), since their statistics on draws are really bad. My opinion is that the key for improving our success rates is the time we spend for study each game. One proposal could be to create a team that dealing only with draws from different countries. So each one will follow, watch, study and propose games from his region. In that way each one will have enough time to study 1-4 champions and propose 1-3 games. Then we gather this list which will be with apprx 30-50 potential draws from all aound the world and each can make his choice. Xinakias

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws That sounds like a very thorough way of figuring out draws. Have you had any success with games you've picked out? My system is extremely simple (therefore probably won't be successful in the long-term) because I don't have the time to sort out all that stuff above. I am interested in what your research brings up though and how you use your data to get your picks?

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws A couple questions - Scoreboard position and statistics (points, draws, goals) what do you look for here? do you find mid table teams more likely to draw? - Current form of teams what is key in form? inability to score? - How they played and with whom last 6 game same question as above - Do they have games (cup, europe) during next days in your previous experience, how big of a factor was this I'm just looking to become a better draw bettor myself,i see the potential in it, as you only have to go 40% to make a decent profit,

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws also Xnia I read your other post and I would be interested in focusing on a league contributing (I already focus on value Away wins on MLS, Swe 1, Swe2, Ligue 1, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga) however my ability at picking draws is still not good enough yet as I am still learning. I may try this month, maybe starting with qualification on Friday to focus mainly on draws and see how well I do for Euro I'm finding that groups with 4 or more teams that have a shot at winning the group have a higher tendancy for draws ie) Euro 2008 Group B Only Italy an France (two countries known for draws) had a legitimate shot at winning a group, but in the 42 games, only 4 games ended in draws compare that to Group A Where Portugal, Poland (eventual winner), Serbia and Belgium had a shot at winning the group, with Kazakstan and Finland being decent teams too. That group had 18 draws in 42 games anyways this is only one sample, but I do think the potential is there What i am curious is what an adequate bankroll is for draws normally I bet 5% of my bankroll per game, but I kinda of feel that 2% would be more adequate

[aderuk]

Re: Football draws have you had a look at league 2 in england ,so far this season it averages 6 draws per week I normally do 4 draw fourfold £5 and 4 trebles £2.50 each ,£800-£900 payout if you get all four :nana in and aroud £70 for 1 treble if you get 3 out of four :) mine for the weekend

1	04/09/2010	Accrington Stanley v Wycombe (Full Time Result)	Draw	9/4	None	To Run
2	04/09/2010	Bury v Gillingham (Full Time Result)	Draw	9/4	None	To Run
3	04/09/2010	Aldershot v Northampton (Full Time Result)	Draw	9/4	None	To Run
4	04/09/2010	Shrewsbury v Rotherham (Full Time Result)	Draw	9/4	None	To Run

[Xinakias]

Re: Football draws Dear friends, Thanks for your replies. First of all, as you already know, anyway of study and picks is better after 6-9 games have played in all leagues. First 6 games as well as last 6 games is usually out of "logical". I never play national teams ( Euro) and friendly games. Also I don't play the games of friday since I don't have the time to study them. My statistics last year was average 32%. Worst case 25%, better 55% ( 22 X at 40 games). But mainly I am at 35% (9 X at 25 games). Best results comes in middle of season. Every league is different in the way of study and pick draws. Also every year you see differences in same leagues. It depends how strong will be the top teams and how bad will perform the bottom teams. Everybody is mentioning how important is the form, last 6 games. But it depends how you look at it. For example one team has 1W 2D 3L. In a first look you think a low-medium performance team. But .... if you check carefully in details the last 6 games with which team, final score, performance etc, you may discover that the 2 D and 3 L was with the 5 best teams in specific league and 4 of these games were away , they lost with 1 goal difference and they had a really good performane then you see not a bad team but a strong middle class team able to get a draw in home against a team that is above in the score board. If a team had or will have a game for europe in the next days is (for me atleast) important. See for example that Inter played friday against At.Madrid for Europe super cup and after few days had a draw in Italy !!!!!!! Aderuk, I also noticed the draws of 2nd division! I played only 2 of them :( An important factor is the teams ability to score. In other words Under/over... The most common draws are 0-0 & 1-1. (1-1 is one of the most common scores generally). So an important criteria is if the game seems under or not. Usually I use that as final filter in my draws list. As I am trying a lot to imrove my results ( from 35% to 45-50%) I am searching for new criterias. I think that really important is if a potential draw in a game will be satisfying both teams. No matter what players and coach are saying before the match ( we are going to win bla bla bla), we should carefully see if a draw it will be Ok (or not a dissaster) for them. What I strongly reccomend is to check in details all results after the weekend everytime. You will be amazed of the feedback you will get. In the coupon I work on (greek national betting) every weekend in apprx 250 games you get around 60 Draws. 40 of them are games that could be oriented as possible draw games but 15-20 games every week are really suprices !!!! Regarding statistics of course I accept that is a factor but again it depends how you are using them. For example you see a team that has 4 draws in a row. Some will say that this is a draw team and pick it, some other will say that statistically will have a L or a W. Or you see a team that after 15 games has now draw away. Some people will avoided as a non draw team some other will say that statisticaly can not end the season without a draw away etc etc PS) I apologize for my bad english and spelling :\

[muppet77]

Re: Football draws good stuff mate, but a little frustrating that your comments don't wrap to the next line? ( each line has about 1000 words in it before it goes to the next line down) Probably not your fault, but are you typing directly into the reply box or are you pasting from somewhere else? I don't understand why it happens but just think it could be solved. Sorry to hijack the draws chat! :ok edit - it seems to have corrected now?????? must be my eyes! apologies.

[Rick121212]

Re: Football draws This weeks selections. Not many matches due to international games. Expecting less success in Serie B this week, but here they are. Results will be done in a while and if I get time I will get games up for the weekend after but I'm on holiday for a week so don't hold your breath.

Week 4
05/08/2010	2.90	Modena v Padova
05/08/2010	3.10	Ascoli v Albinoleffe
05/08/2010	2.87	Cittadella v Novara
05/08/2010	2.90	Grosseto v Vicenza
05/08/2010	2.87	Livorno v Siena
05/08/2010	2.87	Triestina v Pescara
05/08/2010	3.00	Varese v Empoli

[yankeepaul]

Re: Football draws sorry rick if we've taken your thread and turned it into a draw strategy discussion hope you don't mine, if so, i'll start a new one anyways are you guys finding that most draws are 1-1 and 0-0 if so would it be wise to bet the under in those games as well i am finding that the times when i do lose draws the score is often 1-0 i'd be willing to research and league or two and see results i would take historical odds from scibet

[Puntingpro85]

Re: Football draws Can i add my 2 cents?lol... This is the only system i use in football.dutching fulltime drws.its th only system that works and lol no1 sold it 2 me.its commen sence.those big odds in high percentage draw leagues must produce somethin if u choose the correct leagues u should do well as every1 can see above as th thead poster did very well after a dodgy start .th leagues i select are.italian serie b and serie c both divisions,french ligue 2,england league 1 and 2 blue square premier and bsquare south.stay away from the north laegue.i had a instance where i played 12 selections and they all lost.no draws at all.luckily i played it with th south side that had 6 draws from 11 games..i dont know more than next to nothing bout these 2 leagues.anyway austrlia a league also a okay league to hit draws as is the irish premier(last nite went well.3 drws out of 5 for that particular league.nice profit made.also south african psl was at about 35 percent draws for last season.this season started badly tho.1 draw out of 8 games.3 of th 7 losses had extra time winning goals tho so thats positive.i am from south africa btw and i expect different outcome today.im paper trailing through asia at this moment and korea k league seems a nice league to hav a bet in.