AFL Round 22...final round until finals

[jeremda01]

Hi everyone, This is my first post, :D Here is the fixture for this round: Dockers V Blues Subiaco Fri Aug 27th 8:40pm Cats V Eagles Skilled Stadium Sat Aug 28th 1:10pm Hawks V Magpies Melbourne Cricket Ground Sat Aug 28th 2:10pm Crows V Saints AAMI Stadium Sat Aug 28th 4:10pm Bulldogs V Bombers Etihad Stadium Sat Aug 28th 7:10pm Lions V Swans Gabba Sat Aug 28th 7:10pm Tigers V Power Etihad Stadium Sun Aug 29th 2:10pm Demons V Kangaroos Melbourne Cricket Ground Sun Aug 29th 4:40pm I wasn't sure if i should post the odds or not, however, you can see the odds @ betfair's website if you wish :), Please discuss :) UPDATE: Recommended Bet: Magpies @ 1.55 (Betfair) over the Hawks: Magpies are currently first on the ladder and Hawks are seventh on the ladder. The Magpies have simply had a great season and this is enough for me to back them in this on. The game will also be played at the MCG, so they'll be many Magpie supporters. Also, the Magpies would be looking to make a good impression for themselves before the finals (you know, the icing on the cake). Not sure what else to say about this, please let me know though

[jeremda01]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals There is one match which I believe would be good profit, that is the Hawks vs Magpies, where the Magpies are heavily tipped to win. The Magpies are 1st and the Hawks are 7th. I'd also recommend small stakes for this ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Freo -6.5 St. Kilda @ Adelaide (2.00 @ Sportingbet Oz) :ok Shall discuss at this time tomorrow. :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

There is one match which I believe would be good profit' date=' that is the Hawks vs Magpies, where the Magpies are heavily tipped to win. The Magpies are 1st and the Hawks are 7th. I'd also recommend small stakes for this ;)[/quote']:welcome jeremda01. You've forgotton to tell us what the recommended bet is. :) Saints, Bris & Port if Cousins isn't involved are my early thoughts. All straight up possibilities.

[Move D]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Adelaide +15.5 $1.86 @ betfair Both teams generally low scoring and i think adelaide will push the saints in this one

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Swans would have to be certs with Brown not playing. Home final up for them if they win.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Not 'home' tho really Henry...Stadium Oz, which is no real advantage at all... ...(although I understand what you mean. :ok ) Having said that, I'm not entirely sure...out to 19.5 now, looks far too big to me. I'm really leaning strongly to the in this one as well...Lions showed v. Crows they can still get it done at home without the big guy...

[jeremda01]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals UPDATE: Recommended Bet: Magpies @ 1.55 (>Betfair) over the Hawks: Magpies are currently first on the ladder and Hawks are seventh on the ladder. The Magpies have simply had a great season and this is enough for me to back them in this on. The game will also be played at the MCG, so they'll be many Magpie supporters. Also, the Magpies would be looking to make a good impression for themselves before the finals (you know, the icing on the cake). Not sure what else to say about this, please let me know though. This is also in the initial thread post.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Brisbane v. Sydney (2.02 @ SportingBetOz) 3 games @ home this year without Brown have all been losses...but by 19, 14 and 7 last game v. Crows. In fact the Lions have been remarkably consistant playing in close games at home who ever plays...8 of their last 9 have been within 22 points either way, with just a game v. Geelong throwing it out! The first meeting @ SCG this season was a 20 point win to Swans...rd. 22 last year @ SCG was an 8 point win to Bris. Nothing in the numbers much for either team...suggest it will be relatively close either way. St. Kilda @ Crows Like Brisbane, Crows have played a hell of a lot of close games lately...their last 7 straight have been 22 or less either way, 6 of last 9 at home... Saints play interstate games so close to their chest it's hard for either team to get on top...just 1 of the last 8 on the road have been greater than 25 points, at a terrible Eagles by 35 this year. Again, stats a very close either way (esp. for Crows @ home)...better than 2.00 is big, imo. Freo -6.5 Everyone knew about the avalanche of actual footballers returning this week, but that aside this is a pretty good match-up for the Dockers. It will be even battle in the midfield, although I suspect the return of Sandilands gives Freo a big boost here, but the difference is at either end... ...both teams have trouble scoring against solid D's...but only one team has one of those here. :lol Carlton have the 4th worst D (a shot every 1.91 entries) better only than WC, Port and Rich...1.80 even in their last 5 games! Freo have a relatively solid 2.10...6th best behind the usual suspects and Melbourne... The schedule doesn't lie either...Blues have topped 87 points in just 4 of theri last 10...v. Bris (in Melb), WC, Ess and Rich...funnily enough, the bottom 4. Freo look to be on a slide, but have not really done much wrong...at home they've played 5 of the top 7 defensive teams (not Dogs, and obviously not themselves!)... ...the other 5 games have all been big wins...in fact av. margin has been 57 points. This probably won't be 10 goals, but 1 looks very short. :cheers

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals will post my views tomorrow last week going to post a few bets!

[riz31]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals My AFL punting has been pretty shoddy but with 2 weeks without gambling on the footy and with some brilliant EPL bets to cut my losses. Thought i'll give it another go Sportsbet West Coast +70.5 Line - $1.92 Gambling against the Cats at Skilled is a cardinal sin but geesh the line is huge. Few factors why i like this bet 1. Geelong will want to keep their players fresh for the finals 2. May implement more ideas in terms of game plan 3. Currently, it indicates Saturday would be wet Collingwood Over 15.5 Tribet - $2.04 My beloved hawks smashed a 2nd rate Freo side but with Hodgey out, think the Pies will win for Fraser's 200th. Well deserved he got the 200th with the Pies. Ben Cousins Under 21.5 Disposals - $1.80 Stats show 21.5 is very gettable for the Cuz. Only last week he failed to reach the target in the last 10 matches (did end up getting 20). So which way do you lean? He's hammy could go at any time which would be a shame and with limited game time, i've gone for the under. Like to hear other people's thoughts. Good luck on the punt!

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Fremantle -9.5 @ $1.91 sportingbet 7/10 Fremantle playing carlton at home this week , and i really cant see an upset taking place, pav sandi and many others needed a break, and 10 topline players coming in fresh for this game will be a huge plus for freo. Playing at home infront of a huge crowd to ensure a home final with a win, their will be no stopping freo getting some momentum before finals, mark Harvey will be certain to show the many critics that resting players was the right thing to do! Adelaide @ $2.55 5/10 I have been on the adelaide bandwagon all year, unfortunately due to some bad goal kicking they will miss the 8 but the talent in the side is a real promise. Last week they were terrific against the pies really shut the game down well, they should have beaten the then "inform" dogs at home and really outplayed geelong at home about 5 weeks ago. St kilda on the other hand imho have huge problems, last week adverse to many football analysts views, i really believe st kilda were outplayed for large parts of that game with richmond scoring with ease in their front half. Adelaide have 2 big Key forwards in Walker and Tippett and i really cant see a suitable match up for either, Gilbert, Blake, Goddard, Fisher none of these guys are key defenders just love to zone of. I really think these two will have a field day and the Crows will give Mcleod and co. a pleasant sent of although they will be watching in the stands. The saints have been poor for the past couple of months and Adelaide will take alot of heart out of last week. Richmond -6.5 @ sportingbet $1.91 9/10 Right this is pretty much a no brainer for me. This game is all about Ben Cousins, the dramatic biography Such is life during the week, and his last game for the tigers this week will be a huge pump up. The tigers gave him a new lease on life, and the fans will be out in full life, the young tigers will come out with a bang mark my words. Cousins has been a real mentor at the club for the past few years and the boys will really bond together for one final game for him. Riewoldt should have a field day and the tigers team camaraderie will be enough to send cousins to a pleasant last football memory.

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

My AFL punting has been pretty shoddy but with 2 weeks without gambling on the footy and with some brilliant EPL bets to cut my losses. Thought i'll give it another go Sportsbet West Coast +70.5 Line - $1.92 Gambling against the Cats at Skilled is a cardinal sin but geesh the line is huge. Few factors why i like this bet 1. Geelong will want to keep their players fresh for the finals 2. May implement more ideas in terms of game plan 3. Currently, it indicates Saturday would be wet Collingwood Over 15.5 Tribet - $2.04 My beloved hawks smashed a 2nd rate Freo side but with Hodgey out, think the Pies will win for Fraser's 200th. Well deserved he got the 200th with the Pies. Ben Cousins Under 21.5 Disposals - $1.80 Stats show 21.5 is very gettable for the Cuz. Only last week he failed to reach the target in the last 10 matches (did end up getting 20). So which way do you lean? He's hammy could go at any time which would be a shame and with limited game time, i've gone for the under. Like to hear other people's thoughts. Good luck on the punt!

Mate welcome and good luck. I think the cats line is about right, if the rain sets in you will probably be in luck however if it stays away i think geelong pass this mark as their average winning margin at skilled is huge, and west coast lost to collingwood 85 dogs 70 etc. they are a torrid team. Collingwood is a dangerous one because shown by last week they are probably looking forward to the doggies having sewn up top spot, and with hawthorn winning past 4 of 5 against the pies, however Hodgey out is a huge huge loss, and birchall is no slouch either so we will see which collingwood show up, hawks playing for that home final which will be crucial in their finals campaign I think your playing the odds with cousins under 21.5 i really hope he plays a blinder, but if his hammy is whaty they say it is, id say they would give him limited playing time to get him thru the match

[riz31]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

Mate welcome and good luck. I think the cats line is about right, if the rain sets in you will probably be in luck however if it stays away i think geelong pass this mark as their average winning margin at skilled is huge, and west coast lost to collingwood 85 dogs 70 etc. they are a torrid team. Collingwood is a dangerous one because shown by last week they are probably looking forward to the doggies having sewn up top spot, and with hawthorn winning past 4 of 5 against the pies, however Hodgey out is a huge huge loss, and birchall is no slouch either so we will see which collingwood show up, hawks playing for that home final which will be crucial in their finals campaign I think your playing the odds with cousins under 21.5 i really hope he plays a blinder, but if his hammy is whaty they say it is, id say they would give him limited playing time to get him thru the match

My fear with big lines is that I always tend to lose them going for the favourite team to chase the line down. Hence, I never like to bet lines over 50 no matter the history. Yeah I'm hopin the Collngwood game last week was a "glitch" because they were shocking against the Crows. Am aware Didak is out but if they show any of the form in the previous 2 months. I'm pretty happy to get a touch above evens. My sister is a Tigers fan so I will be attending the game with interest. I do hope he has a good one to go out on but gee a typical hammy sees him 2-4 weeks out in any other circumstance. Best of luck :clap

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals With regards to the Hawks vs Pies game, I would wait to see what happens in tonights game first to see if its a live game for the Hawks or not. If Freo win, the Hawks might give Mitchell and Co. a rest since even if they went all out for the win, Swans beating Brisbane would make their result irrelevant. Just my thoughts....

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals I am thinking Freo vs Carlton over 188.5. Carlton has been racking up big numbers lately, and with Freo's rested players back like Pavlich, Freo will be kicking many goals, plus they should rack up big numbers being at home.

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

I am thinking Freo vs Carlton over 188.5. Carlton has been racking up big numbers lately, and with Freo's rested players back like Pavlich, Freo will be kicking many goals, plus they should rack up big numbers being at home.

I agree chris and taken over 192.5, just not sure who will win it though, you have to lean with Freo but Carlton have to win this otherwise their stayin in Perth for the week for a re-run. The last four between these two have been under 16 avg 7.5, think the Either Under 15.5 is a good bet here @ 2.85. :hope for a close one. GLOP this week guys lets get some money for the finals and brownlow. :ok Thanks to all who posted this year I have enjoyed reading your comments and predictions. :clap

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Good luck buddy, let's make some money! :D :cheers

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Great game, a few passengers cost Carlton. Too many missed opportunities cost us the total but got out with the either under. :dude

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals If Fremantle kicked straight, we would have got the over. :( Anyway, I digress. Thinking today, Geelong vs Westcoast over 190.5. Geelong will rack up a huge score here today, and I am sure Westcoast will kick a few themselves. Also the H2H history suggests big scores. Thoughts?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Can Eagles get to 50 to tip that total over?? Can't believe how bad Freo choked last night...watched, but stats confirm...59-44 I50's... :wall ...knew it was in trouble when Fyfe (Ibbotson?) missed that easy one mid way last... ...but then to just bomb it twice out of the backline late when all it needed was one chip and mark was painful to see. :puke Speaking of painful (and not in a pain sense!)...I'm wondering about "dramatic" there gooch...was the biggest pile of crap I think I've ever witnessed. Not sure at all who it was aimed at...[i know what it was done for...$$$ :eyes ]...everyone over 40 and conservative is now more paranoid than ever...most under 35 would have been there done that, seen it all, and thought, yeah, big deal...so he's a "regular guy" just with more cash... Complete waste of just about everyone's time and money. :\

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals I'm hoping they can, at some point they have to prove they aren't as bad as what people think. This is their last chance for the year. Just need to look at the weather at Skilled first before I tip an over. Some of the Fremantle players didn't look into the game, increasing the workrate for the other players. Don't know what was wrong with Fyfe in the first half, after a one week rest I thought he would have gone all out.

[jeremda01]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals I have a quick question, sorry its a bit off the topic, but in what countries can you bet online in-playing? But also i got the Dockers of the Blues @1.03, first bet ever ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Can anywhere I guess??...but you need to physically phone the Australian books because of a crazy, draconian law that doesn't look like being repealled... Hope you spend that 3 bucks wisely...;) [lol...kidding mate! :lol] Oh, and while I'm here... Brisbane v. Sydney OVER 166.5 Seems a rediculously low total...due no doubt to the lack of Brown-ness...(The Lions are Brownless even...ahem...)...but hello, the Swans have had 25+ shots in 7 of last 8...have gone over this number in 8 of last 9... ...Lions games are free-flowing at home...av. 108 I50's...We all saw the Crows game (gooch earlier than most :ok ) ...can't see why this will be a whole lot different.

[jeremda01]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Thanks TazaD. I had to do that last night, took a bit of time up but oh well, do you think the law will ever change?

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals 171.5 seems a bit low for the Hawthorn vs Collingwood game?

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Hawthorn vs Collingwood over 175.5 @ Sportsbet. These teams have never scored under 175 points in the last 4 years when they have played eachother. Easy over for me. :)

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Up to 179.5 now, started on 171.5 at Centrebet. Thanks for convincing me not to take the over on the Geelong game Taz, they can't kick straight today! I think it is a little windy down there though.

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Can't believe how low scoring the Saints game is! Any opinions on the Sydney Brisbane over? Still think it is okay to punt on with the latest outs?

[Ibanez1004]

Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Wow some surprising games today :eek. Collingwood getting nipped by the hawks in a superb last quarter by Hawthorn. Adelaide defeating the Saints in a very low scoring game at AAMI:eek. I noticed alot of you were wary about the Saints this week turns out you guys were right :ok. Can only hope won some money on it.. I was too scared to back them myself. I had one punt this week on the AFL.. A multi on Geelong, Collingwood, Saints and the Doggies.. turned out the be a shocker of a bet indeed lol. :@ :wall. Grats to all of those who won some money on todays games :). Brisbane have drifted alot in tonights game, i wont be having a bet on that one myself. With O'keefe back and Brown out Sydney should win comfortably but the odds are just not worth it now. Good luck to those who go for the over ;)