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AFL Round 22...final round until finals

jeremda01
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Ashtee

Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

But also i got the Dockers of the Blues @1.03' date=' first bet ever ;)[/quote']At what point did you take this bet, jeremda01? I saw those sort of odds at 3QT and IMO the true odds on Fremantle at that point was about 1.08, certainly not 1.03 - which is just my opinion ;). As such, IMO anyone who keeps taking such a bet is certain to do their doe eventually, and there's plenty of examples of people losing it painfully. As a matter of fact the 20.00 Carlton available at Betfair 3QT was the smart bet, but again that's just my opinion.
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jeremda01

jeremda01

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals @Ashtee...okay, well i did mine in the fourth quarter roughly 5 mins in, on the phone...wish the law changes. oh well. yeah i wish i got it at 1.08 - 1.12. Also, IMO, if your betting off your winnings and you lose it doesn't really matter, its just a bit of fun. what is your opinion on live betting? have you done it before?

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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

@Ashtee...okay' date=' well i did mine in the fourth quarter roughly 5 mins in, on the phone...wish the law changes. oh well. yeah i wish i got it at 1.08 - 1.12. Also, IMO, if your betting off your winnings and you lose it doesn't really matter, its just a bit of fun. what is your opinion on live betting? have you done it before?[/quote']Certainly discipline is the key, so no problem with that philosophy, but you hear of so many examples of say the student (well most of us may have had a similar experience) who's done ten of the 1.03 bets that all canter in then decides he's on such a good thing he'll do one a day for some party money only to find mom & dad's term allowance suddenly vanishes, which is what bookmakers have designed to happen, and it will! Nothing wrong at all with in-run betting, from a long term bettors standpoint, providing you can orchestrate it well enough to ensure you are only backing value at the point in time you place the bet. I took 2.50 Carlton just before QT & again @ 6.00 half time. Who actually goes on to win isn't important and even though I felt Fremantle were fave to win for most of the night they were simply a losing punters bet - I stress, IMO.
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goochrules

goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

Certainly discipline is the key, so no problem with that philosophy, but you hear of so many examples of say the student (well most of us may have had a similar experience) who's done ten of the 1.03 bets that all canter in then decides he's on such a good thing he'll do one a day for some party money only to find mom & dad's term allowance suddenly vanishes, which is what bookmakers have designed to happen, and it will! Nothing wrong at all with in-run betting, from a long term bettors standpoint, providing you can orchestrate it well enough to ensure you are only backing value at the point in time you place the bet. I took 2.50 Carlton just before QT & again @ 6.00 half time. Who actually goes on to win isn't important and even though I felt Fremantle were fave to win for most of the night they were simply a losing punters bet - I stress, IMO.
you are spot on ashtee! all about getting the underdog at the right price alwyas thought freo were in control of that match but you would be stupid to back them at those tiny odds
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jeremda01

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals @ Ashtee and goochrules Okay, so i see where your coming from, interesting view, smart thinking ;) I went with the bulldogs over bombers @ 1.23 and 1.24 with betfair, good move or not? so far I think it went well. if they win it will cover my loss in the afternoon so I'm content with that. I'm thinking of going for Richmond @1.70 over Power with betfair... Ben Cousin's is playing his last game and a lap at the end, will it be enough motivation for the tigers to win? Any ideas?

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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals An overreaction to the the Cousins factor and Port are a bet IMO - 2.60 @ Luxbet, Betchoice. Plenty of run but vulnerable inexperienced talls for Richmond and it's not one of their stronger line-ups. Obviously Ebert is missing but not the problem it would have been a few weeks ago due to others that weren't there. Couple late outs is probably better rather than worse. Both teams just played twice at Etihad. Port can certainly win if they want it and we do see the 'spoil the party' scenario happen a fair bit.

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goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

guys can i have your opinion on melbourne - north melbourne? odds are 50% / 50% thats the kind of game i like to bet on. on the afl website the head to head says 8-0 for the north melbourne kangaroos..
i thought i wrote a write up for this match but something must of changed my view, yes i know kangaroos have won the last 6 in a row, and they are definitely finishing the year strongly watched insider with brad scott and i think he really believes they will win this week, both two young sides but melbournes youngsters really look to be fading in running out a full year at afl intensity, as shown by the abismal performance against port, kangas have had a promisiing season and to side with someone i would take the kangas, as they will want to get the wood over highly talked about melbourne.
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Chris25

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

An overreaction to the the Cousins factor and Port are a bet IMO - 2.60 @ Luxbet' date= Betchoice. Plenty of run but vulnerable inexperienced talls for Richmond and it's not one of their stronger line-ups. Obviously Ebert is missing but not the problem it would have been a few weeks ago due to others that weren't there. Couple late outs is probably better rather than worse. Both teams just played twice at Etihad. Port can certainly win if they want it and we do see the 'spoil the party' scenario happen a fair bit.
Good call Ashtee, wish I had followed.
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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

Good call Ashtee' date=' wish I had followed.[/quote']If you did you probably would have got 2.75, so much did they keep drifting. That's what some bookies such as Luxbet do, though. They troll this forum to see my picks then immediately lay bigger odds :loon. Still a half to go though! :hope
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Chris25

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals Well, Richmond are coming back so I am not sure who I would take now! Taking Melbourne vs North Melbourne over 181.5 @ Centrebet. Really just going on H2H stats here, and desperation from the bottom teams this weekend to show they can still play a good game of footy has seen many games go over, so fingers crossed on this one. :hope

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goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals the way you play for someones last game is based on actions not words, i only know the halftime score. it is bad as i watch all matches on tv, but if cousins means anything to the club richmond will win this game, you dont lose milestone games, this year has been perfect evidence of that, group together tiges and give cousins the send of he deserves i have faith

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TazaD

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

the way you play for someones last game is based on actions not words, i only know the halftime score. it is bad as i watch all matches on tv, but if cousins means anything to the club richmond will win this game, you dont lose milestone games, this year has been perfect evidence of that, group together tiges and give cousins the send of he deserves i have faith
Given they were effectively playing one man short, I'd suggest that taking Cousins in probably actually cost them the game... ...btw, in the past I've found it difficult to find a book who will accept in-running bets in delay... :unsure
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goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 22...final round until finals

Given they were effectively playing one man short, I'd suggest that taking Cousins in probably actually cost them the game... ...btw, in the past I've found it difficult to find a book who will accept in-running bets in delay... :unsure
hehe yea my friend at the game rang me at half time (Live) and we went $200 each on tiges thru my bookie at 70:1 and then i turned my phone of and watched the game (delay) hence only knowing halftime score , it was a shame they lost and i think you are spot on cousins cost them the win, oh well im hoping that kangas hold on it would be nice:hope consolation
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