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AFL Round 20, 2010

Ashtee
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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 Yeah...crappy hey. My numbers suggest that both Melbourne and North are plays, but I've gone all gun-shy after a couple of very poor weeks. :spank Melbourne still got hammered in the midfield last week, so not sure they'll be able to withstand the sheer weight of numbers (I50's) that will go against them this game. As good as Frawley and the backline have been, Roughead and Franklin are hardly Mitch Morton and Riewoldt! :lol Kangas numbers skewed a bit by last week...even then it was the first midfield battle they'd won for 6 weeks. Saints tough to read right now...:\ Reckon Port are pretty good things @ 1.40...Carlton/Rich could be the highest scoring game ever, and if Brown doesn't play the Lions are no chance at all. Other than that... :beer I guess! :ok

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Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

Reckon Port are pretty good things @ 1.40...
I had to drop my confidence about Port when I noticed Waters, Hurn, Selwood & Masten could all be ins but I do notice Hurn is now listed as out another week and Jones (WCE's best last week) is out as well. Plenty rain forecast, so you'd expect the home & slightly more matured team would be best advantaged by that. Worth a thought, particularly if eagles are not greatly strengthened afterall.
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Henry Jr

Henry Jr

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 Rumour going around that 211(Sandy) is done for the year with hot spots in his foot. Freo have come out and denied it saying it bullshit. Must be true i reckon! Dont understand how a guy 211 cm 120kg playing 90% game time could get stress fractures in his feet :lol

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TazaD

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 Yeah, mystery hey! :D Not sure I've really got much to add this week... Carlton have had 34 shots v. both WC and Ess...the Tigers are every bit as bad defensively. Suspect they score pretty big... ...pretty amazing tho that in their last 5 games the Blues allowing a shot every 1.71 entries! :eek Worse than Richmond themselves! :puke I'm not sure Richmond can keep up, but not convinced about the Blues minus either... ...Reckon Sydney are a massive chance. Freo haven't really been big I50 winners all year, have tended to win games thru their forward efficiency...and interestingly that's the thing that seems to have dropped right off. (Pav injured?) ...It's also a noticable weakness v. stronger defensive teams... ...Beaten by Dogs (2.30), Coll (2.14), St. Kilda (2.12), struggled v. Melbourne (2.10)...Swans 2.13 and unlikely to lose the midfield battle like Melbourne did (+10 to Freo). When they score at 1.96 or worse they are 2-7 on the season. ;) Just looked at the Port schedule, and in their last 9 games the only team they've played who haven't been in the top 9 teams on the ladder is Adelaide!! (And obviously won). WC will be a welcome sight this week...esp. since they have lost their last 5 @ AAMI by an av. of 56!! In fact, now I look, Port are 9-0 v. WC at home since 2000!:loon ...and WC numbers last week lead me to think the Crows are pretty good things too. Their weakness has been their defensse on the road, but Brisbane simply can't score on anyone, as witnessed by their 20 shot (2.25) effort @ WC. 2.52 in their last 5 is awful...Crows have very similar defensive numbers to WC, (and other end too far that matter) but are far better in the midfield. Losses to Melbourne and Rich (no Brown in that one, but still...) at home, Crows no worse than either. On the surface the Hawks look vunerable, but I don't think you can question their form. We all know they can't travel, so discount the last 2 weeks...played Saints, Cats, Dogs in 3 of the previous 4 weeks... Have got the big wins when they 'should' have... ...tempted to take them here, but think it could well be a low scorer...although the weather may well make sure of that anyway. (Same in Adelaide). Good luck with whatever we come up with guys. :ok

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goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 Collingwood -43.5 @ $2.00 sportingbet 10/10 This is a no brainer. The loss of fletcher , winderlich and davey really obliterates essendon, and although ball, reid, davis and goldsack are being rested, the inclusions arent that bad with guys like meddy and lockyer really wanting to prove a point. Collingwood last week had 67 inside 50s and absolutely belted geelong just as i predicted, this week essendon will have no match for the pies awesome defensive pressure and with the season nearing an end and essendon with nothing to play for i expect them to lose by more than 80. Collingwood still has room for improvement, but everyone knows their roll and plays as a team, last time they smashed essendon by 11 goals , they are in better position now and i think the score will be even more lopsided Sydney @ $2.40 8/10 It is really unfortunate that freo hav been crippled so bad by injuries this year, it is evident pav is carrying one, sandilands not playing is a huge loss as mumford is a beast and this will really hurt freo in the middle where the game is won and lost. With mumford doing what he wants, Jack kirk bolton mcveigh ROK will hav a devastating impact on this game. I am aware that sydney doesnt play fremantle well but this side is playing for kirky and roosey both coming to the preclusion of careers , last week sydney disposed of Hawks and Freo were pathetic after half time against the kangas. Sydney have a lot to play for and with Goodes leading the troops this team is finals bound!:hope

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 Port v. WestCoast under 170.5 (1.90 @ Centrebet) AAMI night game for a start...Lots of rain around Adelaide atm, expected to continue throughout the day, and windy as well. Reasonably solid play as it is I suspect...the teams combined for 175 at Subi (50 shots...gotta love games that actually do the average thing! :)), and 94 I50's... ...WC home/away has been (statwise) remarkably similar this year, but Port play far better defensively at home with 3 less I50's and shots allowed... ...add to that in their last 5 games the teams are 2nd and 3rd worst for I50's (42 and 47)... ...Eagles very rarely top 70 on the road as it is...their defense does tend to let them down , but Port haven't topped 93 in their last 10 games, and just twice all season over 97. ..

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goochrules

goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

Port v. WestCoast under 170.5 (1.90 @ Centrebet) AAMI night game for a start...Lots of rain around Adelaide atm, expected to continue throughout the day, and windy as well. Reasonably solid play as it is I suspect...the teams combined for 175 at Subi (50 shots...gotta love games that actually do the average thing! :)), and 94 I50's... ...WC home/away has been (statwise) remarkably similar this year, but Port play far better defensively at home with 3 less I50's and shots allowed... ...add to that in their last 5 games the teams are 2nd and 3rd worst for I50's (42 and 47)... ...Eagles very rarely top 70 on the road as it is...their defense does tend to let them down , but Port haven't topped 93 in their last 10 games, and just twice all season over 97. ..
Couldnt agree more taza, both these sides have pretty horrible skills and if their is raining around this game could go under 100 points. think your spot on!
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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 Yeah...previous meetings...AND Geelong games at the Dome suggest an over... ...but Bulldogs playing very, very good defense this year. Cats have had low scoring games v. Hawks and St. Kilda... Couldn't trust it either way personally. :\ [2 meetings at the dome last year went 230 and 206 :ok ]

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Ashtee

Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 What's the weather doing in Adelaide at present, anyone? I got under 175.5 and notice it's at 155.5 now but my screen's saying it hasn't rained for awhile (4.6mm today) and the wind has dropped right off. You'd still expect the ground may be a little heavy anyway, I guess.?

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Ashtee

Ashtee

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

bookies got that game horridly wrong' date=' and essendon kicked so well at goal, thats about the most lopsided game ive ever seen[/quote']I'll have to remember to tail you on the no brainers, gooch :D. Any time I take one the bet lands in a screaming heap so much so I get too nervous about them now. I must admit Collingwood have proved a team to be trusted, just when we may think they're due a quiet night. :ok
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Ibanez1004

Ibanez1004

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

Sydney @ $2.40 8/10 It is really unfortunate that freo hav been crippled so bad by injuries this year, it is evident pav is carrying one, sandilands not playing is a huge loss as mumford is a beast and this will really hurt freo in the middle where the game is won and lost. With mumford doing what he wants, Jack kirk bolton mcveigh ROK will hav a devastating impact on this game. I am aware that sydney doesnt play fremantle well but this side is playing for kirky and roosey both coming to the preclusion of careers , last week sydney disposed of Hawks and Freo were pathetic after half time against the kangas. Sydney have a lot to play for and with Goodes leading the troops this team is finals bound!:hope
Tailed you on this one. What a great game, last quarter was a nail biter :)
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goochrules

goochrules

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

Tailed you on this one. What a great game' date=' last quarter was a nail biter :)[/quote'] mate i was very worried, sydney were in complete control for the most part of 1st quarter and were behind :S not maximising opportunities, but yes a thriller and a nice win;)
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Deadly Statistics

Deadly Statistics

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

Brisbane v. Adelaide under 174.5 (1.90 @ Luxbet) Lions haven't topped 70 points in 6 weeks!!! :eek I'll be very surprised if a team av'ing just 21 shots on the road can lay 100 on them here.
Conditions are perfect teams have nothing to play for and adelaides game style in the last 6 weeks has been very attacking. Of course forgetting the atrocius conditions they have played in against P.A and W.B. I think they will cover the 174.5 by about 15-20 points. Brisbane haven't been scoring much at all granted but it's important to note that they have played , Hawthorn , St Kilda , Geelong and melbourne in those weeks and they have very good defensive game plans. I think fevola and brown out helps them to a degree , both haven't had the legs and they will get alot more goals from midfielders and makeshifts imo. I hope for your sake im wrong because i won't be betting. Good Luck.
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Deadly Statistics

Deadly Statistics

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 My bet today: Hawthorn @ $1.70 Sportingbet 5 points NAP. Looks a juicy bet for me because these 2 teams are miles apart in class at this stage hawthorn won't put 3 bad games together and melbourne i think are being overrated a bit on the back of wins against brisbane and richmond [Hardly Inspiring]. Melbourne have improved and will like the tough conditions but class will prevail and the hawks will win.

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TazaD

TazaD

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010 You might have been a bit conservative with 15-20, DS. :lol Granted the Lions have played those teams, but they did only score 81 @ home v. Richmond without Brown... ...anyway, go the Hawks. Rain is on it's way which should suit them better. :ok

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Chris25

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Re: AFL Round 20, 2010

Conditions are perfect teams have nothing to play for and adelaides game style in the last 6 weeks has been very attacking. Of course forgetting the atrocius conditions they have played in against P.A and W.B. I think they will cover the 174.5 by about 15-20 points. Brisbane haven't been scoring much at all granted but it's important to note that they have played , Hawthorn , St Kilda , Geelong and melbourne in those weeks and they have very good defensive game plans. I think fevola and brown out helps them to a degree , both haven't had the legs and they will get alot more goals from midfielders and makeshifts imo. I hope for your sake im wrong because i won't be betting. Good Luck.
Good observation DS. :)
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