AFL Rd. 18.

[TazaD]

Looks an absolute horror I reckon... ...moved up to 417th in the tipping, but this week will kill me almost guarenteed. Just looks like a week where either; a) Dogs promise so much only to all get pumped... ...or b) Everyone takes the 'obvious' favs, only to go down in flames. :wall ...or of course c) a horrible mixture of the two! :puke Taken 2 games so far... Essendon +31.5 and Swans +28.5 Last 3 meetings Dons have been 3.00, 6.50 and 5.50 'dogs...have won 2 of those 3 (inc. this year...albeit without Riewoldt) and lost the other by 19. They do seem to match up well...have the pace thru the middle to break lines...Fletcher/Hooker both solid match-ups for Riewoldt specifically... ...I think the main point is that Essendon play a losse enough brand to simply score, which most teams just don't do v. the Saints... ...and, given St. Kilda have av'd just 87 ppg in their last 10 (topped 100 once), and Ess have scored less than 80 just once in their last 10... ...simplistic I know, but it seems to come true for these two. But, can they win?? [Which, in itself begs the question is St. K

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. Did rivalry round get canned or something? Will look around for a

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. Ah crap... ...for all sorts of reasons! :wall

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. Brisbane/Melbourne??...Richmond/Crows??? Same problem in both... ...Lions played just 2 of last 7 at home (both without Brown)...Crows played just 2 of last 7 away... ...makes it hard to distinguish home/away form from just, well form!! Have the Crows come good, or is it just a home thing? They did beat WC, but they've lost all 4 this year @ Melbourne, ic. a terrible loss to Melbourne early... ...I think the key is they haven't topped 76 in any of them. No embarrasment for the Tiges last week...not sure they should have been belted by North...BUT, they did 'win' I50's 53-49 in that game (wet too), so given the Crows give up a shot every 1.78 entries on the road (even a pretty poor 1.91 in their last 5, which is pretty ordinary considering)...they should be a big chance here. Some good in's for the Tiges too... ...probably about right $-wise...wouldn't like to risk any real stuff on it, but happy enough to say Tiges win... :loon Taza, am also sorely tempted to take the Tigers. However, one question: the points made re Adelaide all relate to their form before they 'turned the corner' (if you can call it that and if it's advisable to ignore the derby fiasco last week). Does their more recent form sway your thinking at all?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. I know I'll be critised for this but I'm tipping Saints-hawks to draw tonight HT/FT WCE/Carl, Dons, Melbourne, & Port to win the showdown. :ok

[J_R_Ca-H]

Re: AFL Rd. 17.

I know I'll be critised for this but I'm tipping Saints-hawks to draw tonight HT/FT WCE/Carl, Dons, Melbourne, & Port to win the showdown. :ok

You been looking at the good old Back to the Future Almanac Ash, gee I wish I could me self one of those :)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. Just got reminded why I suck at backing short priced favourites.

Collingwood should beat Carlton on current form...no real idea about the spread tho...although if they win it will probably be more than 5 goals... Under is a thought, but bad weather forecast, won't get that lucky.

It's been raining all night here in Ballarat (often a pointer to what's an hour or so away in Melbourne) and looks to be staying around. doesn't appear Melbourne's got it yet though? I notice Bet365 have it at 180.5 Ps, Taza, maybe you could get around it by changing last week's thread to 'Round-16'.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. Yeah, yeah... ...you guys are hi-larious! :D It's almost like going back in time watching a St. Kilda/Ess game tho...poor old Saints stuck in ground hog day. Off to a flyer. :tongue2 Kangaroos +33.5 Just too many points. Like I said earlier, the gap between these teams just isn't this big...and suddenly a close loss to Essendon doesn't look all that bad either! I really don't know myself saintg. The Crows just have a horrible mish-mash of form really!! Did they 'come good' at home v. Freo?...or was it just because Edwards retired?? ...were they still crap the week after v. Hawthorn, or was it a 'typical' raod game from them? Melbourne and Ess were both in slumps and are both terrible travelling teams... ...but they then went to West Coast and racked up 69 I50's!! :unsure Who knows. I can't read it at all. Tipped the Tigers...my inkling in all that is that the West Coast game said more about the Eagles than Crows. Tiges holding their own in the midfield, but have dropped right off at both ends recently... ...just think the Crows' inability to score on the road could be a pretty big factor. I reckon Richmond can just do enough, but certainly not confident enough to back them. Clear skies and calm conditions just up the road here now (11.25am)...I reckon the Coll/Carl line is pretty much spot on...can see a 105-75 kind of game... ...(with Carlton winning hey Ash. ;) ) Some wet/windy weather forecast in both Adelaide and Sydney, but those totals are both tight I reckon...:\

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. I really like the price on Richmond (2.37). Analising the squads, Richmond are much stronger & Adelaide are rather weakened. The notion Richmond's run is done is overrated IMO. No worse than an evens chance. Weather is clearing here.

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Good call on the Bombers Taz, didn't tip them myself. :( Looking at Richmond for a good value bet.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. ... just adding to Richmond-Adelaide. Adelaide have been away once in the last five, which perhaps gives a deceptive feel about them. They're much weaker than they have been of late - lost Goodwin, Mcleod before last week (ins Bock & Porplyzia below their best), lose Johncock here, two inexperienced ins. Richmonds four changes have them very strengthened. Richmond should be slight favourite IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Agree. ...but can someone tell me how the **** Swans didn't cover the 28.5??!! 20.5 to 9.18...that's pretty painful. Geelong did have that bit of extra class all over the ground, and Swans did miss a key forward (2 x Goodes would be handy)... ...but Goodes himself missed 2 or 3 easy(ish) shots, Jack and Kennedy a couple each... ...up the other end the goal face is under the control of a giant feline arse!! :wall Ablett swings one a mm inside the post that should never have snuck home, Johnson...Ling on the right from 55 through the arms of a smotherer!! :moon Painful to watch. :puke Anyway... Bulldogs v. Kangas under 188.5 (lux) Doggies have really turned up the defensive pressure, allowing just under 16 shots per game in their last 5...at an amazing shot every 2.81 entries!! :eek They've only allowed 3 teams all season to top 80!! They have been realtively quiet up forward tho (probably as a result)...interestingly enough, they have been beating up on interstate teams mainly...take those games out and the Dogs haven't topped 27 shots since rd. 3 (against the Kangaroos rd. 9). Kangas have been solid defensively all year themselves, as a result just 3 of their last 10 games have gone over this number...just 2 of Dogs last 10 have, so providing we don't see another crazily straight kicking performance by either team, this total does look pretty high.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Crows @ Richmond under 162.5 Heavy rain on the way...Crows can't top 75 East of Adelaide, doubt very much whether the Tiges will be able to put up 90. (190.5 available for the Doggies game now... :ok )

[eighteighteight]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. I've just backed the over in that one but 160.5 Last minute punt

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 18.

(190.5 available for the Doggies game now... :ok )

Yeah, I noticed that. Certainly some good numbers about the under here. The one thing that worries me is WBD are (over 188.50) 5-5 at Etihad & 0-7 elsewhere. North are 5-12 but 3-7 @ Etihad. Losing the run of Harbrow from the back could impact a touch (at bullies end), maybe. Couple first gamers (North's - defender, WBD's - Forward).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Freo v WCE - Either Team Under 15.5 @ 3.50 Sportingbet This is a derby game and these games often play against the form book due to the added motivational and intensity factors that are in play -- We saw last week when Port upset the Crows that anything can happen. Half of the last 12-14 clashes between these teams has been decided by less than 16pts and I feel that underdogs West Coast will have sufficient motivation today to keep the score very tight.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Sunday sure did suck arse for a couple of us. :puke Onward and upward... :unsure