Over Under 2.5 goals Factors

[kaizenalpha]

Hi - am new here so apologies if this has been discussed at length elsewhere before. I'm particularly interested in trading in the over / unders markets and am trying to use some logic to continually improve on the percentage of matches that finish under 2.5 goals. For example - I've done a very small back tested against the English Prem last year (380 matches) to find that if you exclude the following : Home Team odds 1.91 the strike rate for matches ending with less than 3 goals is around 42.5% - my objective is to try and reduce this number down further as low as possible whilst including as many qualifying matches as possible. I intend to apply this criteria this week to about 40 different seasons across multiple leagues as I'm sure that there will be differences in leagues. I'm looking at options to trade in the unders market when the first goal is scored early and the prices rise quickly but having already tried to find matches that are still likely to end with no more than 2 goals - giving me time to trade out - accepting that there will be losses along the way. Any suggestions on other factors that can be considered that would reduce down the percentage. I'm working through league percentages for over/unders and various fundamentals like form, motivation, significance of game etc... to try and build a ratings model that might fit this (haven't really found a ratings system yet that is better than predicting less than 42% of unders). All thoughts and suggestions welcome - happy to post my progress and findings on here as I go. Al.

[allthethings]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors I am finding that the best-priced under 2.5 is a solid bet, no matter what the situation. What I did was play the best-priced side and total in every league for a while. When the best-priced total was under 2.5, it was the best...55-48 at last count (it reached about +15 games at one point), and with all those wins at better than evens. Under 3 was even better...13-5 so far. Remember, these are situations where the game is the league's best-priced total for the week, so it's typically when a blowout is expected by a heavy favorite, with O3 priced at 1.5 and the U3 priced at 2.15. O2.5 was running about 50-50, but with plus money. Sides were not successful using this strategy. My theory for why unders are best: The public loves overs, and results are random. The odds frequently get crazy, with everyone and his mother jumping on. One word of caution: It's risky in super high scoring leagues. For example, don't do this in Iceland or Adeccoligaen in Norway.

[richard galbraith]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors So to clarify, do you mean the match with the longest odds for under 2.5 (or under 3) goals in each league. Or do you mean when this match also contains the side with the longest odds in the league? Cheers

[allthethings]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors

So to clarify, do you mean the match with the longest odds for under 2.5 (or under 3) goals in each league. Or do you mean when this match also contains the side with the longest odds in the league? Cheers

I was playing on the best-priced side and best-priced over/under in each league, independent of each other. By the way, the timing confounded me at first, but I found it was best to play on these just after the odds were posted and the initial movement was settled, more than a day (and sometimes four and five days) ahead of the match. I theorized that initial odds movement was based on nothing more than teams' reputation and statistics, and especially with total goals, it was so far removed from the game that it couldn't take into account anything pertinent, such as lineups, weather, etc. Not that late odds movement means anything...I think people overreact to news and provide the rest of us with value.

[kaizenalpha]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors Yeah I agree the unders do seem to be a better bet (and for the reasons you've stated) and I would always play them versus overs market if only because I feel more comfortable - starting at 0-0 - something needs to happen i.e. goals for the overs market to be a winner for me - I like the idea time is counting down and odds reducing until something happens rather than hoping that a goal(s) will be scored to win my bet - personal preference I guess. Although the early goal can get you if trying to trade out soon into inplay market. Started looking briefly at English Prem last year - 10% of games have the first goal inside 5 mins! so you gotta be quick or have a strategy to close out your position after this event. Going to start a sample test tracking English Prem & Championship in new season - building up factors influencing number of goals in a match - and either rule in / out certain things that seemingly result in higher or lower scoring matches - will post on here or blog - welcome any contributions to this.

[allthethings]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors One thing I can add is the EPL, like Eredivisie and Primera, does feature a lot of games that are very one-sided. I think if you look at all the games where a home team is favored by 2 goals on the Asian market (say, Man U home to Wigan or something), these go over 3.5 total goals very regularly...but interestingly, much more often when the plus money is on the favorite.

[twoandahalf]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors To be fair to the opening poster going by odds solely to decide which games to bet on is a guaranteed long term loser. What are the factors that other people are using? Recent games... playing in europe. Average goals scored/conceded Average shots attacking/defensive players missing or returning from injury ect how to combine all these factors to gain an overall picture. where to source some of the variable factors that you can get them relatively accurate.

[Highbury FC]

Re: Over Under 2.5 goals Factors Hey guys this is my first PL post. Currently im focusing on the Eredivisie as it has the highest avg goals per game for the 2010-11 season @ 3.17. Some other useful stats i use are avg percentages for the season: Over 1.5 goals 84% Over 2.5 goals 62% Over 3.5 goals 41% In addition to that i tend to bet on teams that have a high against avg playing away and a high for avg playing at home, when you find a real cherry they end up being 3-1, 4-0 5-0 etc. As mentioned by someone else here, the Eredivisie does have a big spread in the quality of teams which means there can be some monster scorelines from time to time.