>2.5The4th

[20silkcut]

I've been visiting this site for some time now and have picked up some excellent info/ideas for my various >2.5 goal betting strategies. Unfortunately I've so far been unable to put any of it to profitable use. Being a software developer by profession I have had 3 attempts so far to develop the killer betting application which will churn out half a dozen winning bets each weekend. Truth be told, I end up spending more time making the code perfect than worrying about the results it produces. So to cut a long story short I'm having another go and keeping it simple (Excel and a smattering of macros at the very most). I decided to post here as I hope it will help focus my efforts in trying to make this effort work. I ain't much of a back tester (just don't have the patience to input months or years worth of results) so will be starting the system very simply and refining it as I go along. The system is a 'Fixed system', however, I am running it as a paper-trail exercise at present whilst I refine it. I would expect by Xmas to have a refined system (for possible consideration in the systems league) or have consigned it to the bin and be busy on version 5. The current system is so basic I will not detail it for fear of derision. It is however solely based on current league tables with obvious focus on the goals for and against columns (I expect last 5 games will quickly come into the picture as well). It will try and predict the number of goals that can be expected in each game and the 5 highest scoring games (with 3 or more goals predicted) will make that weeks betting selection. Leagues considered will be the Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2, SPL and Scottish Leagues 1 through 3. As already stated I hope to refine things over the weeks to come and will outline any changes prior to posting selections. The starting bank will be 100 pts and each bet will be 2 pts regardless of odds or bank balance. This weeks selections (remember this is a PAPER-TRAIL exercise, a semi-trained chimp with fixture list and pin could probably outperform it at present) :- Saturday 20th November Arsenal v West Brom Derby v Sheffield Utd Swindon v Hull Stirling v Berwick Selection process only provided 4 possibilities this week. I wonder if this is a good or bad omen :hope Just remembered can't get any odds at work :( All odds will be from Betfair, will post them later when I get home.

[snyena]

Re: >2.5The4th I don't mean to sound negative, but if you don't include the odds in your calculation, where does the fundamental (for betting) concept of value come in? Good luck with your system though. :)

[plez]

Re: >2.5The4th 20silkcut - have you come across the football data website run by Joe? (I guess I can mention it as it's one of the partner sites with a link at the bottom of the page?). For a small fee you get access to results for a number of Euro leagues from 1993, with odds from 2000 onwards, and over/under odds from 2002 onwards. Sounds like what you need for your backtesting :D

[Datapunter]

Re: >2.5The4th :welcome 20silkcut and good luck. We don't have a competition league just a reference table and the guidelines are exactly that guidelines, so what you post is fine. Thanks Plez, mentioning Joe's site is fine. www.football-data.co.uk and yes it is a cheap source of excellent football results data. As you go along maybe you should consider sharing some of the details, after all, this forum is about sharing and supporting each other. Share the details and someone may come along with the missing link you are after ;)

[20silkcut]

Re: >2.5The4th First setback. Betfair don't have over/under odds for lower Scottish leagues. Looks like down to 3 selections unless anyone knows an online bookie providing odds on these leagues. Think it was clear in first post but to reiterate all bets are >2.5 goals. Betfair odds Arsenal v WBA @ 1.62 Swindon v Hull @ 1.82 Derby v Sheff Utd @ 1.92 Snyena, All comments are welcome and I don't feel it was negative in the slightest. I fully understand the concept of value bets, however, my outlook on betting is that if I get them all right I'll win money. If I think a team is going to lose then odds of 5/1 as opposed to 2/1 isn't going to make me bet on them. That said, the odds for this weeks selections aren't wonderful, it may be necessary depending on results to set minimum odds for the selections. Then again if I don't get any right it won't matter what the odds were :)