plez Posted November 18, 2004 Share Posted November 18, 2004 Hi – I’ve been lurking for a while now (sorry!), but I hope I’ve finally got something worth posting. I seem to have become addicted to try to beat the bookies statistically (:loon) since reading Joe's book. After many, many failures :wall, this latest effort shows a bit of promise, at least on paper. Time will tell …… but at least it throws out some crazy predictions that might give you a laugh. It follows the usual format – use a bunch of variables to predict probabilities for the outcome of a match, multiply these by the max odds available and if it shows value then put some money on it. For now I will stick rigidly to what it suggests, even though some predictions seem it go against most of what is posted in the Britain forum! Odds for Betfair and Betdaq have been rounded down to account for commission. Cardiff v Preston [1.5 pts @ 2.1 PaddyPower] Arsenal v WBA [0.8 pts @ 1.21 Betdaq] Chelsea v Bolton [0.9 pts @ 1.4 SuperOdds] Palace v Newcastle [1.0 pts @ 2.37 Skybet] Man Utd v Charlton [2.9 pts @ 1.36 Hills] Boro v Liverpool [4.1 pts @ 2.6 PaddyPower] Pompey v Man City [1.9 pts @ 3.25 SuperOdds] Col U v Huddersfield [3.4 pts @ 3.18 Betdaq] Wrexham v Bristol C [1.1 pts @ 2.41 Betdaq] Boston v Mansfield [1.7 pts @ 4.2 Betdaq] Darlo v Lincoln [1.3 pts @ 3.75 BetDirect] Grimsby v Kidderminster [1.7 pts @ 1.73 PaddyPower] Dundee v Hibs [1.2 pts @ 2.5 PaddyPower] Villa v Spurs [1.6 pts @ 4.33 Skybet] :o A few more to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 19, 2004 Author Share Posted November 19, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Here are the last bets for now :) Everton v Fulham [1.3 pts @ 1.91 StanJames] Forest v Reading [2.0 pts @ 2.95 Betfair] Plymouth v Stoke [1.6 pts @ 2.2 StanJames] Wigan v Leicester [1.6 pts @ 1.91 StanJames] Oxford v Rochdale [1.1 pts @ 3.67 Betdaq] I've just read the instructions for posting in S+S section, so just to say it involves real money :loon, and if it goes well and you are interested then I can say more about the system .... Good luck all this w/e :cheers Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 966.30 Total stakes: 33.7 No. bets: 20 Winners: - Losers: - Str. rate: - Yield: - P/L: - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 19, 2004 Share Posted November 19, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! :welcome Plez and good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 19, 2004 Author Share Posted November 19, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Cheers DP, thanks for the welcome :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 23, 2004 Author Share Posted November 23, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Cardiff v Preston 0-1 :( Arsenal v WBA 1-1 :( Chelsea v Bolton 2-2 :( Palace v Newcastle 0-2 :D Man Utd v Charlton 2-0 :D Boro v Liverpool 2-0 :D Pompey v Man City 1-3 :D Col U v Huddersfield 0-0 :( Wrexham v Bristol C 1-3 :D Boston v Mansfield 0-0 :( Darlo v Lincoln 0-3 :D Grimsby v Kidderminster 2-1 :D Dundee v Hibs 1-4 :D Villa v Spurs 1-0 :( Everton v Fulham 1-0 :D Forest v Reading 1-0 :D Plymouth v Stoke 0-0 :( Wigan v Leicester 0-0 :( Oxford v Rochdale 0-1 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 23, 2004 Author Share Posted November 23, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! A pretty good start! I can guarantee it won't be like this every week! Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 1018.4 Total stakes: 33.7 No. bets: 20 Win/Lose: 12/8 Str. rate: 60% Yield: 54.7% P/L: +18.4 pts This week: staked 33.7 returned 52.1 yield 54.7% No midweek matches this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter66 Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! :welcome Plez and great start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted November 23, 2004 Share Posted November 23, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Can't complain about a start like that, good stuff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 23, 2004 Author Share Posted November 23, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Cheers guys. Bring on next weekend.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 26, 2004 Author Share Posted November 26, 2004 Week 2 Birmingham v Norwich [2.7 pts @ 1.9 SuperOdds] Bolton v Pompey [9.0 pts @ 1.65 SuperOdds] Charlton v Chelsea [1.4 pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Man City v Villa [1.4 pts @ 2.43 Betfair] WBA v Man Utd [0.6 pts @ 1.61 Betdaq] Gillingham v Forest [2.3 pts @ 2.9 Gamebookers] Ipswich v Brighton [0.8 pts @ 1.5 PaddyPower] Reading v Wigan [3.1 pts @ 2.88 StanJames] Sheff Utd v Wolves [2.6 pts @ 2.05 Betfair] Stoke v Sunderland [0.8 pts @ 2.62 Hills] Torquay v Colchester [1.4 pts @ 2.3 BetDirect] Tranmere v MK Dons [6.5 pts @ 9.0 Skybet] Newcastle v Everton [1.9 pts @ 1.95 Betdaq] Rotherham v Leeds [1.2 pts @ 2.3 PaddyPower] Total staked 35.7 pts Bit nervous this week, there's a lot riding on Bolton and MK Dons :unsure Good luck to all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter66 Posted November 26, 2004 Share Posted November 26, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! :unsure How come You fancy the Dons at Tranmere plez? Do you know something that we dont? Its totally against the form book. Massive payout if it comes off mind, good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 26, 2004 Author Share Posted November 26, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Punter, it's not me that fancies the Dons! The model thinks they are value at 9.0, however bizarre that seems (at the moment). From the 4 years of backtest data it picked 26 games with max odds between 7.0 and 13.0, and it got 6 right! As I said before, for now I will do as it says without question. When it goes pear-shaped then I will weed out these bizarre predictions. The main problem is the staking strategy I think. I wouldn't mind putting a small amount on the game, but the best strategy I found to fit the backtest data involves putting more on games with larger perceived value, irrespective of odds (compared to the Kelly formula for example, which is a combination of value and odds). Unfortunately it means big money on big outsiders, and big balls :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 30, 2004 Author Share Posted November 30, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Birmingham v Norwich 1-1 :( Bolton v Pompey 0-1 :( Charlton v Chelsea 0-4 :D Man City v Villa 2-0 :D WBA v Man Utd 0-3 :D Gillingham v Forest 2-1 :( Ipswich v Brighton 1-0 :D Reading v Wigan 1-1 :( Sheff Utd v Wolves 3-3 :( Stoke v Sunderland 0-1 :D Torquay v Colchester 1-3 :( Tranmere v MK Dons 2-0 :( Newcastle v Everton 1-1 :( Rotherham v Leeds 1-0 :( Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 993.0 Total stakes: 71.0 No. bets: 35 Win/Lose: 17/18 Str. rate: 49% Ave odds: 2.62 Yield: -9.9% P/L: -7.0 pts This week: staked 35.7 returned 10.2 yield -71.4% :loon Hmm ,lots of :( , not many :D. I blame Harry Redknapp, personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted November 30, 2004 Author Share Posted November 30, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Midweek game: Crewe v Millwall [1.6 pts @ 2.71 Betdaq] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 2, 2004 Author Share Posted December 2, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Millwall lost :spank Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 991.4 Total stakes: 72.6 No. bets: 36 Win/Lose: 17/19 Str. rate: 47% Ave odds: 2.62 Yield: -12.2% P/L: -8.6 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 2, 2004 Author Share Posted December 2, 2004 Week 3 Villa v Liverpool [1.7 pts @ 3.04 Betfair] Everton v Bolton [2.7 pts @ 4 BetDirect] Cardiff v Gillingham [7.6 pts @ 2 BetDirect] Crewe v Ipswich [2.5 pts @ 2.26 Betdaq] Wolves v Reading [1.4 pts @ 2.4 BlueSquare] Palace v Charlton [2.0 pts @ 2.54 Betfair] Wigan v Preston [1.5 pts @ 1.72 Tote] Good luck everyone this w/e. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 6, 2004 Author Share Posted December 6, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Villa v Liverpool 1-1 :( Everton v Bolton 3-2 :( Cardiff v Gillingham 3-1 :D Crewe v Ipswich 2-2 :( Wolves v Reading 4-1 :D Palace v Charlton 0-1 :( Wigan v Preston 5-0 :D Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 993.1 Total stakes: 90.4 No. bets: 43 Win/Lose: 20/23 Str. rate: 47% Ave odds: 2.61 Yield: -7.6% P/L: -6.9 pts This week: staked 19.4 returned 21.1 yield 8.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 6, 2004 Author Share Posted December 6, 2004 Midweek Colchester v Barnsley [1.3 pts @ 3.75 Bet365] Darlo v Mansfield [3.2 pts @ 4.33 Tote] Macclesfield v Lincoln [0.9 pts @ 2.75 Bet365] Yeovil v Kidderminster [2.3 pts @ 1.4 Hills] Sheff Weds v Hull [1.3 pts @ 2.25 PaddyPower] Oxford v Swansea [1.3 pts @ 2.88 StanJames] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Plez, could you enlighten me where the massive stakes on Bolton and Dons came from the other week? It looks like the usual stakes range from 0.9 to app. 2.6, but suddenly there were 9 pts and 6.5 pts stakes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 6, 2004 Author Share Posted December 6, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Tulenos - the staking strategy looks a bit strange I must admit. As for most models that try to find an edge, this one predicts the outcome for each game, and looking at past data, any games where (odds * predicted probability) > 1.0 are considered "value". For a perfect model and an infinite dataset you would expect a proportional linear relationship between yield and predicted edge (i.e. if you just chose games with a predicted edge of 1.10, the overall yield would be 1.10, an edge of 1.2 = yield of 1.2 etc.). No model is like this in reality, so it's always interesting to plot yield against predicted edge. For this model it was fairly linear up to a point, and then increased rapidly after that, i.e. where the value of a bet was particularly high the yield was even higher (but fewer bets). I tried level stakes and a version of the Kelly formula (where the stake was a combination of edge and match odds) and they were OK in terms of overall yield, but the best seemed to be using the yield value from the equation relating yield to edge as just described (scaled to my starting bank). This means that the higher the perceived edge, the higher the stake irrespective of match odds. It's quite risky, and the end of the yield curve that gives the larger stakes is based on a smaller number of past games. What is strange is why the model though that the MK Dons were such value against Tranmere! There may be a bug in there somewhere.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Thx for the explanation. Suppose there must be a bug in the system as the Dons pick went right against the form book and other stuff too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 9, 2004 Author Share Posted December 9, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Colchester v Barnsley :D Darlo v Mansfield :( Macclesfield v Lincoln :( Yeovil v Kidderminster :D Sheff Weds v Hull :( Oxford v Swansea :D Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 994.6 Total stakes: 100.7 No. bets: 48 Win/Lose: 23/25 Str. rate: 48% Ave odds: 2.64 Yield: -5.3% P/L: -5.4 pts This midweek: staked 10.3 returned 11.8 yield 14.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 9, 2004 Author Share Posted December 9, 2004 Week 4 Palace v Blackburn [1.8 pts @ 3.0 PaddyPower] Everton v Liverpool [1.8 pts @ 2.75 BlueSquare] Newcastle v Pompey [2.9 pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Norwich v Bolton [2.2 pts @ 2.6 PaddyPower] Southampton v Boro [1.0 pts @ 2.52 Betfair] WBA v Charlton [1.7 pts @ 2.6 VictorChandler] Crewe v Plymouth [5.6 pts @ 3.2 SuperOdds] Rotherham v Sheff Utd [1.5 pts @ 2.05 SuperOdds] Wigan v Gillingham [2.2 pts @ 1.4 SuperOdds] Darlinton v L Oreint [1.5 pts @ 3.0 StanJames] Kiddie v Rochdale [1.1 pts @ 2.38 StanJames] Northampton v Boston [1.3 pts @ 1.91 BlueSquare] Rangers v Dundee [0.9 pts @ 1.17 SkyBet] Villa v Birmingham [1.5 pts @ 4.5 PaddyPower] Fulham v Man Utd [1.1 pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Good luck everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 14, 2004 Author Share Posted December 14, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Palace v Blackburn 0-0 :( Everton v Liverpool 1-0 :( Newcastle v Pompey 1-1 :( Norwich v Bolton 3-2 :( Southampton v Boro 2-2 :( WBA v Charlton 0-1 :( Crewe v Plymouth 3-0 :( Rotherham v Sheff Utd 2-2 :( Wigan v Gillingham 2-0 :D Darlinton v L Oreint 3-0 :( Kiddie v Rochdale 2-1 :( Northampton v Boston 2-1 :D Rangers v Dundee 3-0 :D Villa v Birmingham 1-2 :D Fulham v Man Utd 1-1 :( Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 979.9 Total stakes: 128.8 No. bets: 63 Win/Lose: 27/36 Str. rate: 43% Ave odds: 2.58 Yield: -15.6% P/L: -20.1 pts This midweek: staked 28.1 returned 13.4 yield -52.3% Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 14, 2004 Author Share Posted December 14, 2004 Midweek 4 Liverpool v Pompey [5.5 pts @ 1.5 BetDirect] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 15, 2004 Author Share Posted December 15, 2004 Re: Another system inspired by Joe's book ....! Liverpool, you truly are a pile of sh1te :spank Start bank: 1000 Current bank: 974.4 Total stakes: 134.3 No. bets: 64 Win/Lose: 27/37 Str. rate: 43% Ave odds: 2.56 Yield: -19.1% P/L: -25.6 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted December 17, 2004 Author Share Posted December 17, 2004 week 5 Birmingham v WBA [2.1pts @ 1.83 UKBetting] Chelsea v Norwich [0.9pts @ 1.22 SuperOdds] Man Utd v Palace [1.9pts @ 1.25 UKBetting] Boro v Villa [1.9pts @ 2.01 Betdaq] Plymouth v Derby [1.2pts @ 2.3 SuperOdds] Reading v QPR [2.2pts @ 4.9 Betfair] Wolves v Crewe [2.4pts @ 1.9 Hills] Brentford v Col U [1.0pts @ 1.82 Betfair] Cheltenham v Kidderminster [1.6pts @ 1.73 StanJames] Swansea v Notts C [1.6pts @ 1.73 StanJames] Liverpool v Newcastle [2.5pts @ 1.91 PaddyPower] Portsmouth v Arsenal [0.7pts @ 1.62 SuperOdds] Doncaster v Sheff Weds [0.9pts @ 2.9 Betfair] Good luck everyone, especially me :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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