TazaD Posted July 6, 2010 Share Posted July 6, 2010 Well...******' good luck this week boys!! :\ I can see 6 games that could easily go either way...that's including Essendon as a good thing!! :lol I just snuck back into the top 900 in the HS weighted tipping (go Tiges! :clap ), and am seriously considering taking the Saints plus every 'dog! :unsure [Ah...correction, Pies win Friday night...]... ...but by how much is the question? 10 shots diff. between these teams? Yeah, but can Coll kick straight enough to drill a big spread? They probably can tbh...Port home numbers are still ok, (just 3 home games in their last 8!)...but that same skew inflates their home numbers from earlier in the year. Still, mid 30's looks inside the lower boundary as it were... Adelaide night game...+ Friday night game...will be looking for a late total. ;) Hawks are a chance. Easy to argue their run has been easy, but a solid win v. the Dogs with this (strangely!) ever-improving D (2.19 last 7!!)...besides, Cats' has been no better...7 jokes, lost to Carlton and Saints...a good, solid win v. Collingwood tho it has to be said. A 4 shot (9 point) win in Rd. 2...Mooney kicked 4, but no Pods...but Hawthorn won the midfield battle (+2), their D was awful (1.57) which seems to be so much better now. Cats have been big (all 1.72 or less...5 x 1.42 or less!) favs in last 8 meetings, are just 4-4 and haven't won one by more than 11!!! :eek Hawks are a chance. [A slightly more controversial!] West Coast are a chance. Easy to get lost in the Crows' recent results...6 of last 9 at home!! Richmond (8 weeks back!), Melb, Ess [all :puke], Port, Bris...Freo in Edwards' sending off party...just can't rate any of that!! :\ By contrast 3 of last 7 have been home for WC...v. Geelong, St. Kilda and Doggies!! :eek Crows still av. a mere 19 shots on the road (Haven't topped 22 in 6 goes)... ...I know the Eagles haven't scored much lately, but take out St. Kilda and Dogs (the top 2 defensive teams in just about every category) and they've av'd 26 shots at home... ...going back a bit I know, but last 2 meetings @ Subi (06 and 08), Crows were 1.25 and 1.55 favs, and were pumped both times! (82 and 50!!) Lost to Freo here in Rd. 1 as favs (not such a big deal I guess)... ...but being a numbers kinda guy, I won't trust the Crows on the road until I see something!! [That includes taking an 'over' :( ] Pretty sure Saints win...no Brown back, likely no Fev...either way, far too good....High 20's may be a bit rich on the road for a team who still doesn't score a hell of a lot... I didn't initially think so, but are Richmond a chance?? Dockers getting hammered in the middle last 4...-10 (Tiges +1), but defense is holding up big time, as it has on the road all year...2.31 is second best to Dogs in last 4, an amazingly (and consistantly) good 2.30 on the road!... ...which is the thing that sways me to the Dockers. Tiges were 'lucky' last week...+2 I50's, but completely opposite to 'form' they were spanked at either end...Swans butchered a lot of shots (one too many as it turned out! :clap :lol )... ...last meeting and a couple of common recent meetints paint an interesting picture tho... ...Dockers thumped Rich at home, but just +6 I50's (unlikely here)...also +9 clearances is also very unlikely given Graham didn't play and Barlow did... ...both teams v. Saints: -8 shots each, -18 I50's Rich to -16, plus 15 contested possies Rich to -11... ...pretty good numbers, esp. considering Saints were on the road @ Freo... ...Tiges also come out on top in the @ Brisbane comparison (admittedly Brown/Fev kicked 4 v. Freo)... ...but more than anything the Carlton game worries me. 1 less shot thirteen less I50's!... ...Freo in a close, low scorer? Tiges some kind of value @ 2.70 tho! :\ Nth are a chance. VERY similar form...both thumped Port, both disposed of bad teams in bad fashion (Ess and Bris), both beaten by teams they 'should' have been, Swans were better than Richmond, but choked (is that a bad sign in itself?!), but Nth did have a strong result v. Carlton. ...but, Swans did beat Nth in the Dome early on (Bradshaw 11 marks, 4 goals tho)... ...and history hurts Nth (both recent) Nth haven't topped 85 away from Vic in their last 10 (Av. 71!)...and distant (Nth have allowed 100+ in ALL of their last 10 @ SCG!)... ...Would like Nth +20 to take, won't get it with Bradshaw ruled out again... ...just about have to tip Swans @ SCG, but again, at near 3.00 Kangas are super juicy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted July 6, 2010 Share Posted July 6, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Cats and Hawks games have had close margins in their last 6 meetings (biggest margin was the GF in 08'). Margins have been 9, 1, 8, 26, 11 and 4pts. Any score under 15.5pts is paying around the $3.30 mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 6, 2010 Author Share Posted July 6, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. It could well be wishful thinking re: the Wooden Spoon bet, but I would have thought the Bombers couldn't really be 'dogs here...surely... ...both up around the -20 I50 mark in their last 4 games!! :rollin ... ...I say again, :rollin ...both teams similar form line too...Bombers @ Sydney (in conditions that didn't suit), @ Adelaide...v. Hawks and Geelong... ...Melb also @ AAMI **, Saints, Coll, Carl... ...but before that, Dee's only win in their last 9 was v. a poor Port (a road game for Port even)...they had 4 less shots, 6 less I50's... ...Ess legitimately beat Hawthorn, St. Kilda and the Bulldogs in that time!! I know Fletcher and Pears out hurts big time, but Melbourne have topped 78 points one time in their last 9!! The Collingwood draw was a statistical joke, Bombers still the better team IMO. ** Just for comparison, Ess -14 shots, -26 I50's -5 contested, +1 clearance... ...Melbourne -19 shots, -31 I50's, -30 contested, -14 clearances... Numbers-wise I'm lovin' the Dogs at the moment, but choke...oh the choke... ...can't seem to distinguish between defense and slow, crappy play up forward. :wall Defense is amazing...BANG THE ******* THING LONG TO THE MAN YOU WENT OUT OF YOUR WAY TO RECRUIT OVER SUMMER!!!! ****!!! :@ ...Sorry...point being...er...well, both teams on fire in the middle...Dogs +7 last 4, Blues +8, and I suggest the Dogs' run has been a whole lot tougher... ...the BIG advantage the Dogs have is in their backline...a shot every 2.6 entries in their last 4 is madness...Blues second worst (behind WC) at converting up forward in that time... ...having said all that, Blues have a great record v. Dogs...won their last 3, 2 as BIG 'dogs...although Fev has kicked 9 in the last 2 meetings... ...looking at Dogs' victories tho...WC, Bris, Nth, Syd, Melb, Rich, Crows (early and home)...did beat Hawks early, but they may well have been flat off a tough Geelong game... ...Carlton have been tough to pick all year I reckon...wins over Geelong AND St. Kilda!!...lost to Hawks big, Coll...Nth, Ess... :unsure Who knows?! Numbers suggest Doggies...but at 2.60 I'm tempted to suggest otherwise... ...guess it's just about right. :\ Screw you guys, wish me luck in the tipping this week!! :lol Really does look like a make/break set of games. :hope :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. I also like the prices on West Coast, Brisbane (would want bit bigger SU odds but fancy +29.5) & North, pretty much for reasons already said above. West Coast lack quality but that often doesn't matter at home. Voss said last Friday that Fev plays, so would be helpful if he does come up. Sydney certainly deserve firm favourtism (wanting +18.5 but like North's SU odds) - it's a game that I want to wait very late to assess pre game body language, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goochrules Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. COLLINGWOOD -33.5 $1.91 @sportingbet THis price is rediculous collingwood travel better than anyone, and have a terrific record over in adelaide. Pies hav won 5 of past 6 against port last 2 in aami and port have lost 7 in a row and are coming of an absolute belting. The pies on the other hand put on a clinic against eagles and with Jolly starting to find form that centre square division is becoming a menace, collingwoods pressure on the ball carrier is first rate i expect a victory in excess of 50 points Adelaide -14.5 @sportingbet $1.91 Adelaide are the number 1 team for marks inside 50 with boys like Tippett and Walker finding nice form and Glass injured this duo should have a field day, adelaides intensity has picked up and the field kicking is loads better and the run of halfback is their, for the eagles their top 5 ball winners use it around 50-55% kicking effiency ebert, embley, priddis, selwood, beau waters is around league average. This is murdering Eagles on the rebound and the backline is severely exploited atm. 14.5 is an easy clearable line North Melbourne @ $2.85 sportingbet and +24.5 $1.60 IS terrific value While sydney suffered a disheartening loss to richmond, while kangas kicked the last 4 and really matched geelong for parts of the game, it was just clear at times they were intimated by geelongs big name, sydney havent been in good form and bradshaw reinjured is clearly a worry, (lacking talls up forward) goldstein and mcintosh should wear down mumford and pyke allowing kangas young middle to get their hands on it, they play confident brand of footy and winning 3 of past 4 will give them belief they can steal a much needed win to keep finals footy hopes alive:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 7, 2010 Author Share Posted July 7, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Our first Collingwood supporter... :lol ;) Pies haven't won a road game by more than 36 in their last 10 (08)...@ AAMI by more than 31 in their last 10. (03) Definately think they win, but reckon the line is about right. Good luck gooch. Solid stuff. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Our first Collingwood supporter... :lol ;) Only slightly worse if he is in fact an Adelaide supporter ... not sure though, tough one to call in reality :lol! :welcome [url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/members/goochrules/]gooch! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goochrules Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. i am a pies supporter boys, yes some bias as i go every week but aslong as we not playing Saints or Geelong we show up with some nice performances :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. You got any stats Taza on when sides give the coach the flick? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_R_Ca-H Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Interesting isn't it will it make them lift or will they be same old :zzz? Will they improve next week under Laidley? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Still think they have a poor list JR. Sure, they will improve tonight but still not enough imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_R_Ca-H Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Still think they have a poor list JR. Sure' date=' they will improve tonight but still not enough imo.[/quote'] I agree Henry and wasn't thinking of backing them and its really made it a no bet game. If there was any doubt about Collingwood getting the line it has surely increased now? But equally as much doubt as backing Port with the start :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtremo Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. There's 5 recent coach fair well games that I can think of and they where all losses. Dean ladley rd12 2009, Terry Wallace rd12 2009, Leigh Mathews rd22 2008, Kevin Sheedy rd22 2007 and Neal Daniher rd13 2007. So as for mid season sackings that 0-3. Now that I think about it Dennis Pagin's last game for Carlton was rd16 2007 and that was a loss 2. (not 100% sure on the last one) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_R_Ca-H Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. :welcome Xtremo Thanks for the info, I don't think D.Pagan had a farewell game he was just sacked and Ratten took over. But they did get flogged in game before sacking of course. Next headline from Port: Chad Cornes retires.:ok...... (Prediction :unsure) Correction before I post.... J. Shulz OUT. Replaced by J. Carr. (Fact :ok) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lenny212 Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. men in tight shorts............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_R_Ca-H Posted July 10, 2010 Share Posted July 10, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. men in tight shorts............. .....play the greatest game on the planet :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_R_Ca-H Posted July 10, 2010 Share Posted July 10, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Crazy weather....:puke Going for the Most Disposals in today's game field of 8. Avgs Vs HAW. Ablett 23.5, Chapman 20.5, J.Selwood 29.5, Bartel 25.4. Avgs Vs Geel. Hodge 22.7, Lewis 22.3, Birchall 24.1, Sewell 20.0. Selwood great in the wet. Joel Selwood Most Disposals 6.00 Sportsbet.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goochrules Posted July 10, 2010 Share Posted July 10, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Guys one more post i forgot to do few days ago adelaide $6.00 to make finals at tab To me ive seen their run home, they hav a few tough matches Geelong at home, and st kilda at home that i think knowing they can make finals they can possibly win BOTH, Tippet and Walker are stars, they are finding the run of the backline, Danger, Vince, Thompson are class acts, side has belief i had them sitting around 4-5th start of the year thats wrong but i dont think you can go past this future bett Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 11, 2010 Author Share Posted July 11, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. Joel Selwood Most Disposals 6.00 Sportsbet.:hope VERY stiff JR. :( I've been flat out this weekend... ...nothing to report for the late game today. Was hoping for a decent DT match-up, but lloks like most places have matches players I would've liked to go against! :wall Crows 69 I50's yesterday?!?! :eek :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_R_Ca-H Posted July 11, 2010 Share Posted July 11, 2010 Re: AFL Rd. 15. VERY stiff JR. :( I've been flat out this weekend... ...nothing to report for the late game today. Was hoping for a decent DT match-up, but lloks like most places have matches players I would've liked to go against! :wall Crows 69 I50's yesterday?!?! :eek :clap Yeah Taza Abletts dinky little 1-2 handball plays got him home and a couple of Selwood disposals were taken back when free kicks awarded to other teammates. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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