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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)


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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+134pts) Bank - 263.02pts (+163.02pts) Bets - 198 Wins - 36 Placed - 49 SR - 18% Staked - 411.5pts Returned - 574.52pts ROI - 40% New bank high. Nearly 200 bets in now, my strike rate is poor enough but the odds are making up for that. Hopefully it continues. :hope Thanks to everyone who looks and everyone who comments. :notworthy

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) Cheers mate. :clap 3:10 Ascot - Kellys Eye - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) Highly progressive 3 year old since joining the Brown yard after racing for Brain Smart as a two year old. He started this season off a mark of 72 and is now rated 94 which is tremendous progression. He placed on his first two efforts for his new yards then notched up a quick hat-trick at Ripon and was subsequently rated 96. He flopped on his last 4 runs, not beaten by far on any occasion but didn't get the result needed to seem "impressive" and I think that's why he's currently on offer at a crazy price of 25/1. He was hampered on his penultimate start at Ripon and finished 3l behind Gap Princess who is a good horse. Last time out he came 19th of 25 in the Ayr Silver Cup, on the face of it it looks a terrible run but he's a lot better than that and traveled well throughout and didn't get a clean run through despite looking likely to give a big challenge and even hit 2.62 in running, although I can't understand that. He was drawn high which is usually the place to be at Ayr but the low side seemed to be quicker with a lot of the higher drawn horses running poorly, more than likely due to a moderate pace being set stand side and a rapid gallop set on the other side. Kellys Eye was 8 lengths behind the winner in the end but with a clearer passage and a faster run race he'd of been a lot closer, in my opinion. The ground was very quick for Kellys Eye on the last 3 runs and with slower ground here I think he has a very good chance of getting one of the four places available at the very least. He likes to be raced tracking the leaders and he has the perfect position to attack from stall 15 of 16 and has a lot of the pace around him. The slower/softer ground and great draw will give Kellys Eye a good chance of placing if he runs to ability and with four places paid the 25's looks massive. There could still be more to come from this Noverre gelding and he should strip fitter for that run a week ago. Jamie Spencer takes the ride on this fellow for the first time which is interesting, he doesn't often ride for the Brown yard but from 4 rides he has 2 wins (50%) and a 2nd place. Spencer is riding reasonably well of late and despite a few poor rides he is certainly a positive for this horse and he should be able to get her settled in behind the leaders from this good draw and hopefully produce her late on as he can do so well at times, it's either that or he'll ruin her chances altogether. This is the only horse that the Brown yard send here tomorrow to a track they have only visited on 2 occasions before and I reckon they'll be expecting a good run from their progressive 3 year old. He certainly has a good chance with the ground softening and a good jockey on board and Kellys Eye is a 10/1 shot in my book so the 25's are absolutely huge, with 4 places paid being a big advantage assuming nobody pulls out as there is just a dead 16 runners at the moment. Could cause a shock and outrun his price tag. He's worth small each way stakes.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 3:45 Ascot - Dyna Waltz - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill) Quite a good three year old filly who won the Lingfield Oaks trial beating Timepiece into second. She was upped from 7f to 11f miles that day and stayed on very well suggesting she'll stay this extra furlong, she showed a good attitude to win despite being off the bridle a good few furlongs out, she's very lightly raced with only 7 runs to her name and has plenty more to come. The ground is ideal for her today as anything too fast doesn't really suit her and if a little bit of cut stays in the ground it'll be even more suitable as she seems like the sort who'll enjoy a softer surface. Trained by John Gosden who has been in great form of late and has a good 14% strike rate at the course. William Buick gets the ride and he has been in great form since the last week of August with many a winner, if he can get her settled in behind the pace setters she has a good chance of going close here if staying the extra furlong, she looks a potentially classy sort over these middle distances and have that perfect mix of pace and stamina. She ran in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time out, she was stepped up to 1m 6f for the first time. She challenged 2f out and looked a big danger but she didn't see out the trip and faded badly to come last, beaten by 30 lengths. She's now stepped back in trip to 1m 4f, which based on that Lingfield run, should be ideal for her. She wasn't seen for 4 months through injury and may just have needed that run at Doncaster to get back into the swing of things and now, 2 week on, she should prove fitter and will hopefully find a bit of form now dropped to Listed level. This Ascot track should suit her and she should get a race run to suit on possibly soft ground which I think she will appreciate, assuming the rain keeps coming. She ran here as a 2 year old over 1m in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at this meeting last year and came 5th of 9 over a trip that she probably doesn't have the speed for, she only finished 3l behind the winner Hibaayeb who won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes this year. If proving as good as she was early on in the season and it's just a case that she needed the run then I certainly think she can out run her price here and give a good account of herself, she's an 8/1 shot in my book so the 14's look big and with the stable form and conditions to suit it seems very generous to me.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) Back in time again. Busy day tomorrow. 2:35 Ascot - Hypnotized - 2pts @ 5/1 (StanJames) Lightly raced 3 year old who has won twice from 8 runs so far in his short career, he has bundles of ability but has a tendency to pull hard and hang during his race. He is now stepped up from 1m to 1m 2f which I think could do the trick. Jamie Spencer is reunited with this colt and he has been the jockey that got the most out of him with form reading 1-1-4-2-0. The run where he didn't figure in the finish was in a hot handicap at this course on lightening quick ground where he was short of room and didn't get a clear run until the final furlong, he ran on that day to finish 17th of 27 but hadn't a hope of doing any better. He was then sent off 5/2 favourite last time out over a mile at Kempton but didn't travel throughout and finished 3.5 lengths back in 6th place. He is certainly a better horse than those runs suggest and the ground and extra trip today may just do the trick and bring more out of him. Cheekpieces were applied on his penultimate start and they are left on today for the 3rd race in a row. Since they were applied they seem to have stopped him from hanging and pulling hard and if Spencer can get him settled at the back of the field I think that the extra 2 furlongs could see him go very close, he is the sort that should appreciate a bit of give in the ground and with heavy showers at Ascot at the moment he could get that ground. Michael Bell doesn't come to Ascot too often and this is the only fellow he sends out here today, the last time he sent out one horse to this track was last month and that was a winner. Bell has said that Hypnotized is doing some good work at home and looking back to himself so I'm expecting a good run today and I doubt the 5/1 price will be around for too long come the morning. He has raced over 1m 1f on Good ground, he ran very well that day and came second just going down by a neck to Soul Station who hasn't run since. My selection was closing all the way to the line but couldn't get there and looked as if he'd stay another furlong, which he didn't get since. He was however 6 lengths ahead of the 3rd placed horse in that race, Beachfire, who has since notched up a hat-trick of wins off marks of 80, 85 and 91. That form looks very good to me and leads me to believe that the extra distance and slower ground is exactly what Hypnotized needs. He's also well in at the weights and has the highest official rating of the field and is certainly open to more improvement. All in all the 5/1 looks very generous and I've priced him up at 3/1. Rock N Roll Ransom is the big danger in my opinion and he's the reason it's only a small to medium stake on my selection as he's lightly raced and highly progressive but often runs into trouble but certainly warrants respect with Fallon back on board but I think with a clear run and taking to these conditions that the Michael Bell horse has all the ability and conditions needed to do well here and he's my selection for the race.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) Thought Spencer gave Kellys Eye a slightly peculiar ride ending up on the complete opposite side of the track to where he was drawn, still, thought he did well to get placed and wouldn't have won regardless.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) Yeah I watched the race again and thought he done well to get him placed in the end, I don't think the horse is suited to hold up tactics though. Lots of hours spent going through tomorrow's cards. I'm putting up the selections now as my laptop charger is fecked and I'm not sure if I'll get back to put reasoning to them, but I should do. Quite a few selections on a brilliant days racing. 1:55 Ascot - Gobama - 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (Coral) 3:40 Ascot - Suruor - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (StanJames) 5:25 Ascot - Desert Recluse - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill) Now to Haydock. 2:05 Haydock - All Annalena - .5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) 2:35 Haydock - Becausewecan - 1pt @ 12/1 (VC) 3:10 Haydock - Everymanforhimself - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (VC) Nap time.. 3:45 Haydock - Cheveton - 3pts @ 6/1 (WillHill) One for Chester. 3:30 Chester - Arlequin - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) Total Staked - 15pts Reasoning to follow, hopefully.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) Woohoo! I'm back. :clap 1:55 Ascot - Gobama - 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (Coral) Highly progressive 3 year old filly who has went from strength to strength this season opening her turf account at Newmarket in May off a mark of 70 and improving so much that she's now rated 90. She should be suited by the large field here and 2 of her 3 career wins have come in relatively large fields. She often pulls hard throughout but with 21 runners declared she should get a nice position in behind and hopefully settle down to run on late as she so often has. She has only got soft ground on one career run and she should of won that when coming second behind First City, who has since placed at Group 3 level on soft ground. My selection was badly hampered that day by the winner who veered badly left to curtail my selections run and I feel she could of got up without getting nudged 100 yards out. Gobama certainly has the ability and speed to outrun her price here and with the big field and soft ground likely to suit she should have everything in her favour here. It should be a truly run race which will play into her hands and although she's stepping up in class I expect she can do enough to grasp it with all fours! The Ascot track should suit her style and if the gaps open at the right times she'll be staying on as well as any. Seb Sanders is on board today and he knows her well having ridden her on 7 occasions with 2 wins and 2 places. Those two wins came in the 13 and 15 runner fields in which she won both comfortably. When Sanders teams up John Hills he has a good 14% strike rate and this is the only horse that Hills sends up to Ascot today, the stable isn't in good form but the horse is getting ideal conditions today and at 22/1 it's surely worth taking a small chance on. Her Sire, Dr Fong, was a soft ground specialist and even won the St James's Palace Stakes at this course on Good-to-Soft back in '98 and if his highly progressive daughter has taken his soft ground loving genes I expect she'll prove very good with a bit of cut in the ground. This will be her second time experiencing it and with a top jockey on board I'm expecting her to outrun her severely overpriced odds. She's a 10/1 shot in my book so the 22's available seems absolutely huge, assuming the ground stays the way it is. She's worth small each way stakes and although there are some classy animals in the field I wouldn't be surprised to see her power home in first place. 4 places being paid too is a massive plus. Here's hoping for a big run.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 3:40 Ascot - Suruor - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (StanJames) Highly progressive 4 year old who enjoyed a very good 2009 when starting off winning off a mark of 75 and ending the season rated 98. He has always struck me as a horse who needs soft ground and from 5 runs with a bit of juice in the ground he has never finished out of the top 3 and won once. A lot of his more impressive runs has come in races that are run very quickly from the off and with many speedy sorts here I'm expecting the combination of softish ground and a good gallop to culminate in a good run for the David Simcock trained Suruor. His galloping style should be ideal for the Ascot course and this will be the first time he should get a bit of cut in the ground at this course. He ran well here in July over C&D when coming 5th of 21 runners on very fast ground and with conditions to suit and a decent draw here today he might just be able to go a few lengths better here today and possibly win, he was only 2 lengths away that day and he ran well next time out on softer ground at Goodwood when finishing 1 length behind Axiom back in 3rd, he was hampered a furlong out and flew near the finish but his race was already run at that stage. Tom Queally takes the ride today and I find that quite interesting as he doesn't often ride for Simcock. Queally has been riding very well of late and he shows a good profit when riding this course and has an OK strike rate of 10% from 86 rides. He should be ideally suited to Suruor who likes to be held up and I always like backing Tom on a hold up horse. If he gets him settled in behind I'm quite sure that when the gaps appear my selection will have enough gears to make a big challenge at a course that suits him perfectly and on ground that should prove exactly to his wanting. He has a good attitude and rarely puts in a bad run and if getting the run of the race here he should outrun his price tag. I have priced him up as a 10/1 shot and the 20's available are way overpriced. He is now 14/1 with the bookie I made my selection with earlier and he has shifted in price with many other firms but 20's are still available with Ladbrokes. I expect this will be gone come morning.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 5:25 Ascot - Desert Recluse - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill) The most progressive horse of 2010 by a long shot, started off his season running off a mark of 48 and at his peak reached 92 which is obviously outstanding progression. He has went off the boil a little bit based on his last run but I think he was given a shocking run and never had a chance after being held up a long way off a very quickly run race. He should find things more to suit here and although he's unproven on the ground having never raced on anything worse that Good I had him marked up as a horse who may just appreciate a bit of juice in the ground even though he's fairly effective on the quicker surfaces. There are only 11 runners in the field which is also another thing I consider a positive as I don't think he's suited to fields with quite a lot of horses and the less there are here, the better. He has a lovely cruising speed and that should be ideal for the Ascot track, he ran well over C&D on two occasions both on quicker ground and in tougher races and he receives a 12lb weight allowance for age which means he'll only be carrying 8st 10lbs which is yet another positive. He has only had 13 career runs so his progression may not be finished yet as he's quite lightly raced and although he has had a busy and fairly tough season I expect one more bold showing from his this year and with the weight allowance and Robert Winston on board I think he could just prove to have very solid claims. When Winston rides for trainer Pat Eddery he has a highly impressive 21% strike rate and a decent profit to level stakes. Desert Recluse seems to have been underestimated by the odds compliers and he's somehow a 14/1 shot, I had him priced as a 5/1 shot. One of us is wrong and I think it could prove to be the bookmakers minions. A 3 year old won this race last year too and there are only 2 in this field, my selection and Atlantic Tiger from the Johnston yard. He's an unknown quantity at this level and trip so I'll be siding with the 3 year old who I think may appreciate the ground here today and should get a run to suit. Small each way stakes in the hope that he rediscovers his mid-season form and takes advantage of the 12lb weight allowance.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 2:05 Haydock - All Annalena - .5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) 4 year old filly who showed some glimpses of ability on her last 2 starts. Placed twice at Listed level in Germany last year just beaten into 2nd place very narrowly and most of her good form has come on a softer surface. She joined this yard this year and made her debut in a Listed event at Goodwood with an official rating of 99. She came stone last and showed little again next time out finishing last once again. Her last two runs on softer ground has hinted she may prove to be coming back to a bit of form and with conditions to suit and 19lbs below here opening mark of 99 she may have a squeak here if running to her form last year. I know little about her trainer but she has a highly impressive 29% strike rate at the course and Dane O'Neill taking the ride is another positive, he has only ridden on 3 occasions for her before and was on this filly last time out when she finished 5 lengths behind Senate. She is dropped back in trip to 1m 2.5 furlongs and that should help as I feel this trip should prove to be around her optimum. All in all she could prove to be a lively outsider with conditions to suit and is worth tiny each way stakes at tasty odds. She's a 16/1 shot in my book based on her run last time out and the 25's look big.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 2:35 Haydock - Becausewecan - 1pt @ 12/1 (VC) Ran OK off top weight in a class 3 handicap at Ayr last time out when finishing 3rd. He's now 1lb below his last winning mark and loves a bit of cut in the ground and with Haydock currently resembling something like a bog I'm expecting he could have a good chance of plodding his way home from the front. He has had a very busy season without winning but is now 11lbs lower than when in the peak of his powers and I feel that it could all click together some day and he has run OK at the track before as a 2 year old over 6f which is obviously a trip too short for him. He's running 1m 6f today and carries 9st which is always handy at these stamina testing distances and with Greg Fairley on board and no other confirmed front runner I'm expecting a bold bid to make all here. He's trained by the wonderful Mark Johnston who has been in decent form of late, hopefully he'll be expecting Becausewecan to take advantage of the drop in the weights and take victory here. He certainly has everything going for him and although he's up against horses rated far superior to him, he once was every bit as good as these animals and has the ability to prove so once again. Kansai Spirit is obviously a big danger, he's a favourite of mine and has done me good turns in the past couple of months but he's racing off a top weight of 10st here and is totally avoidable at a current price of 3/1. I'm siding with the Johnston horse to come back to form and take this, he's 12/1 at the moment which is too big in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised to see him backed tomorrow and he was 8/1 in my book.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 3:10 Haydock - Everymanforhimself - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (VC) Looks a very big price considering his efforts last year, he was the model of consistency coming 2nd more often than not but did manage to win off 92 and then again at Lingfield in a decent race. He certainly has ability but for some reason or other just hasn't shown it in 2010. Dropped to nearly his lowest ever handicap mark now which is 84. 16lbs lower than his peak last year, that will certainly help his chances. This should be a lot more suitable and with the extremely talented Cathy Gannon on board he stands every chance of returning to winning ways after his impressive run in the Ayr Bronze Cup last time out when finishing 4th to Cheveton. He showed that he still retains his ability and has now dropped to a winnable mark, he has even been dropped another pound for that run which is madness. Cathy Gannon is a jockey I rate quite highly, she can be gold dust on her day and she hasn't ridden for Kevin Ryan much of late so it's interesting to see her get the leg up today. The stable seem in good knick and although they haven't had a lot of winners of late their horses have been running with a lot of credit. Ryan also had a winner when he visited this track at the start of the month. Everymanforhimself is tactically versatile and can be ridden prominently or held up, he's versatile on the ground and should be ideally suited by the galloping nature of the Ascot track. The draw is OK, he should be able to get a nice sit in mid division and run on late if he's up to it. The blinkers that were on for his last 3 runs have no been re-replaced with the visor that he usually wear and the combination of that and finding his ability again should see him run a good race here. He looks overpriced on last seasons form and if staying at his usual level that he showed LTO he should run a good race, 4 places paid and certainly worth a small each way bet. 10/1 would be a more realistic price so 16/1 looks very good if he comes on for that run at Ayr last time out. Here's hoping.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) 3:45 Haydock - Cheveton - 3pts @ 6/1 (WillHill) Not much I can say about this fellow that I haven't said before when I selected him for the Ayr Bronze Cup, he's upped 7lbs for that win and dropped back in trip but he has everything going for him. He loves this course and has won on both occasions that he has run over C&D. He is a 5f specialist having won 7 times at the distance and has won off 4lbs higher than this mark of 92 and won off 1lb lower over C&D the last time he visited here. The 5lb claim from Dale Swift off-sets that and he gave him a wonderful ride last time out when winning at Ayr and he's great value for his 5lb claim. Cheveton will be highly suited by the testing ground here and I'm expecting another very big run from him on even more suitable terms than last time out. He strung together a 5 timer in his 4 year old days when getting conditions to suit and I don't think it's inconceivable that he could notch another couple of wins when in this vein of form. He certainly has the ability, he just needs everything to fall right for him and I think it could again here today. He hasn't the best of draws as typically high draws do well here but one of his wins over C&D came from stall 1 and the other when drawn in the middle of 16 runners. He's drawn in the middle again today and with his tactical versatility it could well play into his hands and if he feels no ill effects of his run last Friday I think he'll go very close. He's 7/2 clear favourite in my book and at 6/1 he looks tastily overpriced and should go well.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) Last one, I'm absolutely wrecked tired. If I go down, I'll go down in style. :lol 3:30 Chester - Arlequin - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) I feel if this fellow gets a clear run he's in with a serious chance, Runs on late and has a brilliant turn of foot. If the gaps appear I think he'll be hard caught, lots of pace in the race and it should suit his style. He hasn't been tested on soft ground before but I always thought he'd be an interesting proposition on this surface and now he gets his chance at a level he usually performs with credit. Silvester De Sousa takes the ride and as you will all know he's a jockey I rate extremely highly and he should be suited perfectly to Arlequin who likes to run on late from the rear. He doesn't often ride for this trainer but from 5 rides he has placed twice. The stable is due a winner having not had one for quite some time and this horse has a race of this nature in him if he runs to his ability. The trainer shows a good profit at this course and has an OK strike rate of 11% with many more placing. I feel the 12/1 is too good to turn down and he was an 8/1 shot in my book and will hopefully run well if handling the ground. He's worth small each way stakes at nice odds and I think he'll eventually go in soon.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts) :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana Brilliant; what write ups; you deserve all the winners with the work that you put in; you have inspired me. Well done Monte...may the winners roll in today!!!!

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+163pts)

2:05 Haydock - All Annalena - .5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) 4 year old filly who showed some glimpses of ability on her last 2 starts. Placed twice at Listed level in Germany last year just beaten into 2nd place very narrowly and most of her good form has come on a softer surface. She joined this yard this year and made her debut in a Listed event at Goodwood with an official rating of 99. She came stone last and showed little again next time out finishing last once again. Her last two runs on softer ground has hinted she may prove to be coming back to a bit of form and with conditions to suit and 19lbs below here opening mark of 99 she may have a squeak here if running to her form last year. I know little about her trainer but she has a highly impressive 29% strike rate at the course and Dane O'Neill taking the ride is another positive, he has only ridden on 3 occasions for her before and was on this filly last time out when she finished 5 lengths behind Senate. She is dropped back in trip to 1m 2.5 furlongs and that should help as I feel this trip should prove to be around her optimum. All in all she could prove to be a lively outsider with conditions to suit and is worth tiny each way stakes at tasty odds. She's a 16/1 shot in my book based on her run last time out and the 25's look big.
Legend!!!! Absolutely strolled it.
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