Monterosso Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Cheers mate and the same to yourself. Hopefully we all clean up in 2011. :cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Great year Monte - and not just the selections, while they were excellent, its the write ups - they would give Shakespeare a run for his money!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) haha cheers Steve, hopefully there's some more winners to come. Taking a couple of days off to spend some time in the pub so I'll be back with a bang soon, I hope! :hope Hope you've a good year mate and keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) I'll be back with reasoning on this one, the price will disappear soon imo. 3:00 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+190pts) Well it has been fun to say the least! A great 2010 for me' date=' but only up until October. It has been steeply downhill ever since and I just can't get any luck of late, or maybe I'm just picking awful selections. [/quote'] I'm in the same boat, mate. If you think about it, it's probably a bit of both. For me some shouldn't have been selections and others ran well, but just had no luck. For example Breedsbreeze traded 1.01 and blew up. I mean what can do about it?! It's just unlucky. Patrick Veitch in his book says he has had 4 or 5 month bad periods, so even the best tipsters and the pros go through these spells. You just have to take it on the chin and don't let it affect you. Either take a few weeks break or do something else. For me the best way is to be more selective, cut out gambles and go for the strongest fancies. I've missed a few winners trying to be more selective and that would have put me back on track, but I think it's the right thing to do. Also, if I've missed winners it means I'm still on the ball, just unlucky to leave them out. (Left out Hell's Bay at 16/1 this weekend :\ ). My advice is, either take a break or be more selective. It won't do any harm, in this weather it's been a bit of a lottery anyway. Some horses are not even half-fit. And the worst thing is connections know it and do pretty big lay jobs on Betfair :puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Ugh, tell me about it! Silaah a couple of weeks ago had me tempted to smash my screen in! Not because I lost money, I don't mind losing at times, it's just the way it lost. Had the race in the bag and found zilch, then gets nailed on the line by a previous multi-time selection of mine. Then he goes and wins easily two races later, the way he should of done that day. Unlucky with Hells Bay, I left many a horse out myself even though I fancied them and you don't need to guess what happened. :eek Fol Liam was one not long ago and another one of Harris' at 20/1 that won the other day. So frustrating as I was just being overly selective as they were poor races. I should listen to my gut instinct more often instead of my logical side, which does me no good! I've had a little break this last month as there hasn't been many days to select anything and I feel better now, so hopefully 2011 brings more luck, starting with the wonder mare (:lol), Absa Lutte. Cheers for the advice mate, hopefully things flip around for anyone who's not doing well at the moment, I won't let it affect me too much even though it pisses me off! My selection process will never change regardless of how I feel but it obviously needs to be tweaked when the ground isn't Good or better. My record on softer going is pretty crap, not that I have any stats to back that up but since it softened significantly from October onwards, I've done a lot worse. Onwards and upwards though, can't win 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 3:00 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill) Talented mare on her day who loves racing around Kempton, having won here on 4 occasions, including 2 over this flying 5 furlongs. She needs a very quickly run race to be at her best and I feel the numerous pace setters in the field could set it up perfectly for her, assuming she comes back to something like her best. She switched yards recently and made her debut start for the Michael Mullineaux stable when finishing 9th of 12 at Wolverhampton. That was after a 4 month lay off and she only finished 4 lengths off the winner, having been hampered at the start. She can win from behind but is most effective when sitting in behind the pace, which she never had a chance of doing last time out after that interference. She was also denied a clear run just over 1f out which certainly didn't help matters and I believe she should come on ten fold for that run. Absa Lutte is now rated as a 75 animal, and that looks a pretty attractive mark, given that she placed off 79 on the turf (she's much better on AW) and she's now just 1lb higher than her last C&D win. Her jockey, Joesph Young, takes off another valuable 7lbs from his claim, effectively leaving her to run off a mark of 68, which has her very well in, in my opinion. Young is a decent jockey despite his lack of experience and good value for his claim, he also has a decent record on the all weather in his relatively short career, having won on board 3 of his 27 rides, with a further 6 placing. His only ride at Kemtpon was also for Mullineaux, in which he finished 2nd, so hopefully he atones for that here, by gaining victory. Interestingly, Mullineaux is making the 350+ mile round trip to bring Absa Lutte to the location of her greatest successes and I think that speaks volumes. He only brings the one to Kempton and has only had 25 runners here since having his first in '01. I'm hinging my hopes on the fact that he's got her in tip-top condition after that debut run at Wolverhampton, and now thinks that she needs to return to Kempton to get things back on track. The slow going at Wolverhampton wouldn't of helped her either and the Kempton surface is obviously ideal. She's perfectly drawn in stall 7 and right beside the likely pace setter, Love You Louis. There are a few more speed angles in the race but I think he's the most likely of them to set it, as he's most effective when doing so. I'm hoping that Mullineaux's charge will keep relatively close order on the pace before pouncing late on, if she's good enough. She pulled very hard last time out as well, which didn't help at all and with such a good gallop virtually assured, I can't understand how she opened at 20's (which I missed) and is now still available at 11/1. I've already snapped up 16's at around 10pm, which is an unbelievable price in my opinion. If she runs her race and retains her ability then I can't see her not finishing out of the top 3, plus there's only 9 runners so it's nearly a perfect each way betting race. The Racing Post's "Spotlight Verdict" has also made her their main selection, so I'm obviously looking at it similarly to them and I fully agree. It'll be mighty tough for her contenders here if she's out to win and on song as she has a lot of ability on the back of a strong pace and she seems very well handicapped on all known form. I marked her up as a fair 6/1 shot, way shorter than what I got her at and I believe it's a much truer reflection of her chances. Relatively big each way bet for me here at a price that I can't ignore. Please don't let Hugh Taylor pick her too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Glad she placed but mighty pissed off. She was clearly out for another jog, the jockey went so easily on her throughout and didn't even raise the whip. Frustrating to say the least but a positive start to 2011 and probably my first winning day in a long time. +4.80pts on the day, including a 15p R4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) I just wanted to drop you a quick note to say that I've had a read through this entire thread and your write-ups are nothing short of fantastic. It's clear you have a real passion for this sport and your reasoning behind some of your picks has given me something to take away and think about. Thanks for a fantastic read and keep up the great work!! :ok SIG :dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Thanks very much Sig. I just really enjoy the sport and it helps that I've very little else to do either! Hopefully results pick up soon and 2011 has some more winners to come. Cheers for the message and best of luck in the coming year. Top man. :cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 5:35 Kempton - Brave Prospector - 3pts @ 5/2 (Bet365) This isn't usually a price I'd be too intent on getting involved with but he looks to have a massive chance of gaining his first victory for his new yard. He's now 6 years old but still retains plenty of ability, as shown when placing over this 6 furlong trip at Lingfield on debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having moved from her ex-husband's yard, oddly enough. Brave Prospector was relatively lightly raced for his former yard in 2010, only appearing 3 times before moving on. He has since run twice, shaping well on both occasions, possibly unlucky twice but he was definitely unlucky when last seen. The first of those runs, at Lingfield, was at Listed level, where he was sent off as a 5/1 shot on his all weather debut. He ran a creditable 3rd behind the progressive, Hitchens. My selection was forced to make his move on the outside of the field, possibly losing some ground in the process due to that move. It wasn't a race ruining factor but I think that losing any ground against that calibre of opposition proves detrimental and he could of done a lot better if he didn't have to go so wide. The next run, over 7f at Kempton, is the one I'm interested in. He was racing at Listed level again, in a high class 13 runner field, but got no luck in running once again, having been denied a clear run on multiple occasions when trying to make his move from the rear of the field. He seemed full of running that day and looked to enjoy the track/surface, so I believe he's worth pursuing with for a while yet, especially now that he's running in a class 4 "conditions stakes". Brave Prospector is also very well in at the weight here, as he's officially rated as a 102 animal and only faces one horse on "proper" terms, that horse is Piscean, who I consider to be a much better horse at the likes of Lingfield and Wolverhampton. He will also be un-suited by the potentially slower gallop that we could see here, and I think that'll play into the hands of Jane Chapple-Hyam's charge, who has a very good turn of foot when on a going day. The benefit of having only 5 rivals is also huge in my opinion, plus the only time he faced a single figure field, he won, in decent style too. Jamie Spencer gets the leg up today, he's a jockey I can't make head nor tail of, as he's so good on occasion, then terrible on others. However, he's the king in tactical races and whatever way this is run, you can be sure that he'll have his mount ready to pounce, whether the horse can is another question but I believe he can and will. Spencer has a mighty 50% strike rate when riding for this yard at Kempton, with 4 winners from 8 rides. He gets on well with the horse, having won on him before and placed on board at Group 3 level in '09. He will hopefully ride one of his better races today and gain another victory on the talented, Brave Prospector. I think he'll take all of the beating here and has a golden opportunity to gain his 4th career win and his first on the all weather. 5/2 looks a massive price, given that he's only a 5/4 shot in my book and clearly the one to beat. There are a couple of dangers but even at their best, they've a fair bit to find with this relatively lightly raced 6 year old. Medium stakes for me and I'm very tempted to make him a maximum bet but I'll air on the side of caution for once and resist. Here's hoping he'll cruise to an easy win, but it doesn't always go like that, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Typical, the horse I've backed multiple times goes on to win easily! Brave Prospector came 2nd. They gave Silaah way too much respect and he just flew away from them. Dandy has really unlocked the key with that one, just never when I've money on him. -3pts on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) No selections due to a poor days racing. One bet in advance for Saturday though. It's a previous selection of mine when unseating last time out at Aintree over the massive fences. He was running a cracker that day and the jockey pretty much jumped off at the Canal Turn. Should love this test. (Coral Welsh National - Saturday) 1:45 Chepstow - I'moncloudnine - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) 4 places paid. I'll be back with reasoning the night before and may even go in again at some stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Finally got myself a proper spreadsheet set up to track my results for 2011. Hopefully it'll make some nice reading at some stage. :) 1:40 Lingfield - Fleur De'Lion - 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365) I'm going to take a chance on this inconsistent 5 year old mare who hails from the Sylvester Kirk yard. Her form figures don't exactly inspire confidence nor does the fact that she races from 5lbs out of the handicap but it's a very poor race and it may be run just to suit, assuming she stays this 1m 5f trip. Her 2 career victories (inc. 1 on the AW) have been over 1m 4f, staying on well on both occasions, so she may well see out the trip with on the back of what I expect to be a very slowly run race. Both of her wins were also on the back of slowly run races and it could help her to utilize her very good turn of foot that we don't see too often. Her strike rate is generally poor, having only won once from 15 attempts on the Turf and once from 22 attempts on the all weather but on her day, she could get very competitive here, despite being out of the weights. Her career high mark was 66, and she should be running here off 46 but has to run off 51, however, her jockey, Ryan Powell, takes off 5lbs to even that out and leave her with a riding weight of 8st 5lbs, which is very low and helps over these middle distances. Fleur De'Lion returned off the back of a 6 month break to run over 1m 4f here at Lingfield, she finished 9th of 15, just 7l off the pace in what was a respectable return to the race track after some time away. They went relatively slow from the offset but when the pace quickened before the home turn, she was too far back to catch up. She ran on decently in the final furlong past beaten horse and was closing all the way to the line, suggesting that the extra furlong today may well work in her favour, even though she hasn't been proven over this trip before. She then went to Kempton but raced too prominent to chase a strong pace and faded tamely. I'd be happy enough to write off that race as it wasn't a true reflection of her abilities and really proved her inconsistencies. Her trainer, Sylvester Kirk, is in fine form of late, with 7 winners from his last 50 runners and many more running very well. He is prone to the odd big priced winner and could have another one ready to strike in this lowly class 6 0-65 handicap. Young claimer, Ryan Powell, is the man given the reins today and he has only ridden on 1 occasion for Kirk, but picks up rides on both of his runners today. He's a decent jockey who has been in good form of late and takes off a valuable 5lb claim. The favourite, Luck Of The Draw, looks a decent type and hails from the Sir Mark Prescott yard. However, he looks opposable here at odds of 8/11, especially having done all of his winning on the different surface at Southwell, albeit impressively. I couldn't back that one with stolen money and I think taking him on is certainly the best option here given his overall profile. I'm going to stick to tiny each way stakes on Fleur De'Lion, who is inconsistent but may have found her match in what is a race that lacks any strength in depth. 33/1 looks massively overpriced to me, I marked her up as a 14/1 shot and she's surely worth taking a chance on at these odds. She could get beaten out of sight or she could dot up with ease, who knows! It's worth a shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 3:10 Lingfield - Ilie Nastase - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) Tricky 7 year old, who isn't the most straight forward but has a lot of ability and looks well handicapped off a mark of 75. He's previously an 85 rated animal, when coming 3rd in a handicap over C&D. He's yet to win a handicap but has put in many placed efforts that would put him bang in contention here, but his only 2 victories in the UK have come in claimers, 1 at Wolverhampton and 1 at Kempton. His last 2 runs have produced little to be encouraged by but he was very consistent before that, running 6 respectable races in a row, including 3 placed efforts. If he manages to put his best foot forward here then I believe he's bang in contention in a race that will more than likely be run exactly to suit his style. He is tactically versatile but is probably more effective when running on late from behind on the back of a strong pace, which he should get here as there's enough pace in the race with the likes of Kilburn lining up. That horse went off like a bat out of hell last time out and I'm hoping similar tactics are used once again, as it'll play into the hands of my selection who stays on as well as anything when the pace is good. Ilie Nastase is trained by Conor Dore, who has hit a bit of form lately with 8 winners from his last 50 runners. He has an impressive 13% strike rate at the Lingfield course and had a winner with his only runner here so far this year. Liam Keniry takes the ride and he has been on this fellow on numerous occasions, never gaining success but he's a jockey I rate relatively highly and he has been producing good results of late. If Keniry can get him settled in behind and produce him late then I feel he has an excellent chance of gaining his first handicap win, although it's a tough race by all means. I like the look of Ian Williams' runner, Syrian, who is also on a good mark and yet to win a handicap but I missed the 6/1 available and he's now too short for me to get involved with. I also can't catch Williams right at all and he's "shrewd" to say the least, so it's debatable as to whether his charge will be trying but early market signs suggest that he will. Copperwood is a previous winning selection of mine but he's too short at 7/2, also up 2lbs for his 2nd last time out and was probably had the run of the race by being in the right position on the back of a rapid pace, he's also a tricky one and inconsistent so better passed over. There's many more potential threats here too but Conor Dore's, Ilie Nastase, should have enough going for him to place at least and he seems to be severely overpriced to me at 12/1. I had him market down as a 5/1 shot based on what he can do, while the odds compliers seem to have priced him up based on what he has done in his last 2 runs. Small each way stakes as it's not a race to go in heavily on and I expect place money at least, assuming he runs his usual race. Fingers crossed he'll do even better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 5:40 Wolverhampton - Billy Red - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365) This is my final bet of the day and the one I feel has the best chance of winning. He's a rapidly quick front runner who is best when able to dominate and should be able to do so here. This is only a 6 runner field and the majority of his wins have come in smaller field. His last 2 runs were in fields in which he was unable to dominate, yet he finished a creditable 1.75l 3rd behind Anne Of Kiev and most recently, 7th of 11, when coming 4 lengths behind Edinburgh Knight in a class 2 handicap over C&D. That was an exceptional run given the calibre of opposition and the fact that he was unable to lead, so he comes here in fine form and potentially ready to strike now back in class 4 company. He's a 6 time all weather winner and 2 time C&D winner, so we know he handles conditions perfectly and now gets the ideal chance to dominate a small field for the first time in a while. Off a mark of 85 he may look a little high at the weight, but his last C&D win was off 1lb lower than this and in this grade. Billy Red is trained by John Jenkins, who has hit a decent run of form of late and only sends out this 7 year old trailblazer today. When Fergus Sweeney rides for Jenkins at Wolverhampton they're 2 from 8 (25%), although both wins have been from this fellow. Billy Red has beaten the current favourite, Methaaly, before. It was his last C&D win when carrying 9lbs more than that runner and they meet on 1lb better terms today (Edit : This is wrong, it was at Lingfield), although the Michael Mullineaux trained sprinter is in fine form lately and should go well again. I still think my selection will have the beating of him again if he gets an easy lead and I can't see how he won't in this field. All bar one of his career wins have come when making all, that's how important it is to him. So I think that if we see something else making the running then it's time to trade out. It's absolutely vital to him to make all and maybe backing him in running once he's in the lead could be helpful too, but there's the risk of his price shortening, which I don't want to take. He's still potentially on a winning mark given his last C&D win, so he'll take all of the beating here, in my opinion. I was expecting something around the 5/2 mark, at which I had him priced up at, so the 5/1 available is a gift and I'll happily snap that up with a medium sized bet. There's not much else I can say for this fellow and hopefully he'll get me into the winners enclosure for 2011. Interestingly, he has won in January of 2009, January of 2010 and now January 2011? Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Awful from Biilly Red. Please go to Lingfield soon. -6pts on the day. Going into a Saturday in awful form, which has been good in past times. Hopefully it is again. :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 1:10 Chepstow - Marsh Warbler - 1pt @ 8/1 (VC) Tough race to solve by all means and the favourite from the Nicholls stable looks hard to oppose but I'm doing so anyways. I'm siding with Brian Ellison's potentially high class 4 year old who has already won 2 of his opening 3 runs over hurdles, in impressive fashion too. He's a former Mark Johnston flat horse, who achieved a peak rating of 85 in that code, so he was certainly deemed as a decent type. He was also with David Simcock for a while and left him after dotting up in a class 6 seller at Leicester on very testing ground in October. Ellison ended up with him then and gave him his debut over hurdles on the 7th of November, in which he finished 3rd on soft ground, 3 lengths behind Pullyourfingerout, who in turn finished 6 lengths behind todays favourite, Sam Winner. That form alone means Ellison's charge has a lot to find but I don't think it's beyond him as that was his first run over hurdles and he has since proved to be a much better animal. He was turned out very quickly to run in a class 4 maiden at Bangor on the 10th of November, in what was a relatively weak contest. He absolutely trounced the field to score by 23 lengths, despite being quite novicey over some hurdles and wandering around in front. That was a visually impressive performance and was deemed good enough to see him rated as a 139 animal by the handicapper, which seems harsh but it could be potentially accurate. Marsh Warbler then turned out 2 weeks later, this time in a very poor class 4 race at Sedgefield, yet again on soft ground. He was sent off as the 2/9 favourite and won accordingly, by 9 lengths, in what was another visually impressive performance as he jumped supremely and traveled like a dream before jogging away from them without being asked any questions. He's clearly a highly talented sort and it's yet to be seen how much further I can go but the trainer think a lot of him and after that race he said that Marsh Warbler is "the best three-year-old hurdler I've ever had; he's awesome". Pretty impressive comments from Ellison and he's obviously optimistic about his chances if he's throwing him in against horses of Grade 1 company, including the current first and second favourite's for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. It's yet to be seen how he'll react to running at a quicker tempo against better horses but I think he is worth taking a chance on as he has definitely not shown his best yet and could be anything, as could his main rivals here. The soft ground is a massive benefit to my selection, who will be even better if the ground keeps softening, and it's expected to be heavy ground come race time, perfect! None of the others are proven on ground this soft and Marsh Warbler will relish it. He also has his regular jumps jockey on board that has ridden him on all 3 starts over hurdles. He is Fearghal Davis, who I don't know much about but he has a 33% strike rate when riding for Brian Ellison with 9 wins from 27 runners and they also show a nice LSP of £30. The Ellison yard are bang in form of late with 11 winners from their last 40 runners, with many more placing, so they're clearly flying high of late and this is an ideal chance to get a big race win, assuming the horse is as good as I and the trainer think. He has a bit to find with the market leaders but everything is in position for him to make an almighty push at success. 8/1 looks a very big price to me and I had him down as a fair 5/1 shot but due to the strength of the top 2 in the market, I will only be playing with minimum stakes in the hope of an upset. If he doesn't win this, he'll win another big race this year, mark my words! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) No selections due to a poor days racing. One bet in advance for Saturday though. It's a previous selection of mine when unseating last time out at Aintree over the massive fences. He was running a cracker that day and the jockey pretty much jumped off at the Canal Turn. Should love this test. (Coral Welsh National - Saturday) 1:45 Chepstow - I'moncloudnine - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) 4 places paid. I'll be back with reasoning the night before and may even go in again at some stage. Great minds (I hope) think alike Monte :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Here's hoping Ginge, I'm also considering backing another one, which happens to be your bigger bet. Truly great minds. :dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) My previously advised AP bet. (Coral Welsh National) 1:45 Chepstow - I'moncloudnine - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365) & 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (VC) I'm taking a chance here on the Neil Mulholland trained 8 year old to rise to the occasion and take a massive scalp by claiming this Grade 3 contest at Chepstow. He's stepping into the unknown in terms of this extended 3m 5f trip but he was seeing out 3m 2f at Aintree very well last time out when his jockey leaped off his back at the canal turn. He was running a mighty race that day and was still traveling like a dream before unseating his rider at the 15th due to the terribly sharp nature of the canal turn. Despite being hampered at the 13th, I still think he was shaping like the likely winner of the race if he had the chance to lay down his challenge. This is an even tougher race again but I think he has enough ability to be well in here off a mark of 133 and with a riding weight off 10st 3lbs, which will come in handy in a slog in the mud. I'moncloudnine is a very good jumper when on song and has never actually fell in a race, which is testament to his abilities, that will be tested to the max here. There has been doubts as to how he'll handle the likely very soft/heavy ground but he has 3 wins on soft going and 2 on good to soft, so I don't know where the doubts have come from, as he clearly doesn't travel as well on good ground, which has been seen on a few occasions. I think he'll love the slog around here and the course suits him perfectly, so it's all down to how he jumps now, which should not be a problem. Young trainer, Neil Mulholland, is making a very good name for himself and should reach the top in a few year. His yard are bang in form with 12 winners from their last 50 runners. He has never had a winner at Chepstown but has had 4 places from 9 runners over fences. He and Dougie Costello have a massive 27% strike rate over fences with 15 winners from 56 runners, with a further 19 filling up the places. They clearly strike up a good partnership and Dougie has ridden I'moncloudnine to victory on 3 occasions from 7 rides, with 2 further runs culminating in second places. He's able to get the best out of this fellow and will hopefully help him to kick on to victory here. The horse himself usually needs a couple of runs to be just right, and that all seemed to be coming together nicely when cruising last time out but didn't get the luck needed when still bang in contention. This is his 4th run of the season now and he'll be in tip top shape, reportedly having come out of his last race very well and is bouncing around at home. It's a very tough race to win but he stays all day and should get this trip well despite it being an unknown. His record in big fields isn't too good but conditions are much more suitable here today and the race should be run to suit. He's tactically versatile, can be ridden from both the back and front, but I feel he'll need to be held up and coaxed into making his move around a mile out. If he can keep plugging on like he was doing last time out then I find it hard to see him not getting involved at the business end of proceedings. The 25's I got was massive value, in my opinion, and he's still very well priced at 20/1 so I'm going in again. There are 4 places available and hopefully he'll pick up on of them at least. Oddly enough, he was as low as 8/1 in my book, putting him in with a very good chance, even though some of the trends are against him. Hopefully he'll run his race and make up for that possible big win that got away from him last time out. Here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 2:20 Chepstow - Nozic - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (PaddyPower) High class chaser for Paul Nicholls in his day and if recent runs were a true reflection of his abilities nowadays then he'd have no chance but I believe he's much better than he has been showing and is now given a fair chance by the handicapper. His last win came in a Grade 3 Chase at Wetherby in December of 08, when hammering the talented Tidal Bay by an easy 7 lengths. That was off a mark of 153 and he was deemed good enough to be rated 161 after that success. He has since came all the way down to a mark of 130, which if recapturing 80% of his old ability, would see him bang in contention here in what looks a very wide open staying chase. He's was also fitted with a first time visor for his new yard last time out on his 3rd run for them and it seemed to have a positive effect until he was hampered when running a strange race, having tracked the leaders, faded to stay chasing the leaders, then getting badly hampered by a fallen horse at the 17th before tailing off due to that I think. He was running a good race so is worth taking a chance on again. Nozic certainly isn't a form chance having pulled up on his last 4 starts but he does comes back to a suitable track, having won here in '07 from a 2lb higher mark. That win came at this distance too so he's getting things ideal and the ground is going to be soft enough to see him fully effective as nearly all of his wins have been on soft or heavy. Having run twice in November after a 6+ month break and once in December, he'll strip much fitter for having had those runs and the fact that he only has to carry 10st 9lbs should help him too. Liam Tredwell takes the ride, he's a decent jockey and does well when riding the chasers out of the Gifford yard having rode 14 winners from 77 runners, giving him a very good 18% strike rate and a small LSP of £7. The Gifford yard aren't in great form but do alright at the course with 3 winners from 10 runners over fences here to give them a 30% strike rate, 2 of those winners coming from this jockey (from 5 runs). This is a bit of a shot in the dark but the visor being on for a second time could have an even greater effect, along with the trip and course being ideal. The 33/1 available looks very big, and I had him down as a fair 14/1 shot. He's a decent each way price and worth minimum stakes in a race where many horses have a lot to prove and class could pave the way, he has bundles of that, just hasn't shown it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Re-hashed write up from a previous one, fairly changed though. 2:05 Sandown - Midnight Haze - 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) Previous selection of mine when scoring easily on his penultimate start at Ludlow in a 3mile contest on Soft ground. He made the running from pillar to post and scooted home by 5 lengths, never looking likely to lose and continued his fine progression over the larger obstacles. That run was after 9 months off and I expect he could come on even more for having had that spin. Mighnight Haze has won 3 of his last 5 starts, coming 2nd on one other occasion and finding 2m 5f too short last time out, he has seen vast improvement since he has gone chasing and started to make the running. I am expecting he'll get the chance to make all once again, and I think he'll capitalize on it. His first win was a heavily eased 14 length success off a mark of 99 over an extended 2m 4f, he was good value for double that margin. He was then turned out 6 days later carrying a 7lb penalty, but failed to get into the lead and had to settle for 2nd place. I believe he was turned out too quickly and wasn't helped by the step back to 2m 3f but he still ran a gallant race. He wasn't seen for a further 4 months before coming back at Wincanton on very testing Heavy ground over 3m 2f, he won by a head in the end after making all of the running once again and just holding on, running off a mark of 115. He showed some decent speed for a stayer that day and I think he's very versatile trip wise, with anything from 2m4f to 3m 2f. The race I selected him in was a decent little handicap in which he ran them ragged from the front. He won off a mark of 120 and looked very good in doing so. The 2nd placed horse, Key Cutter, who was 5 lengths behind has since won off a mark of 119 when scoring at Kempton by 4.5l to frank the form of my progressive selection. Midnight Haze now faces the toughest task of his career to date, he's running off a mark of 128 and up against class 2 horses but I believe there's a lot more to come from this fellow. He has improved over 2 stone since landing his first victory in November of last year and he could go on to notch a few more yet. He's a mighty fine jumper, although he does jump to his right, he usually jumps fluently throughout his races and really puts his opposition on the stretch from the word go. He does need to go right handed to be effective and the Sandown track fits that bill. He's from the inform Kim Bailey yard who have been firing in a lot of winners of late with 12 of their last 40 runners gaining success. This is the only horse he sends out today and it's to a track that he wouldn't visit too often. Jason Maguire takes the ride, he's a jockey I rate highly and he has won on board Midnight Haze before, on 2 occasions. He also has a fine record for Kim Bailey having won on 19 of his 97 chase rides which gives them an impressive 20% strike rate. All in all I think this is another chance for this horse to prove his worth. He has the talent, speed, stamina and ability to go very well here and he seems to have been placed in another suitable race, despite it being a tough one. I find the 14/1 price is very attractive and I had priced him up as a 9/1 shot. Only playing small stakes here as there are too many dangers to put on a large bet but I expect we'll get a good run for our money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) 3:15 Sandown - Fiendish Flame - 1.5pts e/w @ 17/2 (VC) Yet another horse that I've selected before. I'm a fan of this speedy front runner and bold jumper. He has ability to burn and has been steadily progressive over fences, opening his account off 135 and now running off 145 in a high quality class 2 contest. He has had issues with his jumping, often jumping right handed on left handed courses but now he returns to run the other way around, which may play right into his hands. Donald McCain brings him here in tip top condition, having run Fiendish Flame on 4 occasions already this season, with form figures reading 7-2-1-3. The victory was an easy defeat of last years Cheltenham Gold Cup 6th place, Calgary Bay. Although that horse was running at the completely wrong trip so it may not be great form to bring into account. His next run (and last) was in a high quality contest at Cheltenham at the beginning of December, in which he came 3rd behind an improved Woolcombe Folly, who finished 20l ahead of my selection who made a couple of horrible jumping mistakes. McCain's charge is the model of consistency since going over fences, having won 3 of his 9 starts, coming in the top 3 on 8 occasions, the only blot being the Jewson Novices Chase at the festival, in which he finished 6th of 20, only let down by a mistake 3 out. His trainer, Donal McCain, comes here in good form having had 25% of his runners winning in the last 2 weeks. He doesn't come to Sandown too often and I believe he could of found the ideal race to pick up a decent pot with this lively 7 year old. The soft going is also perfect for Fiendish Flame and the 2m trip in testing conditions could see him in a very good light, assuming his jumping holds up under pressure. Another positive is the likely hood that he should face no competition for the lead, which is key to this horse winning as all of his victories have come when making all of the running. Jason Magiure takes the ride, and he has been on board for 4 of this fellows 5 career victories. He's a very good jockey and has a decent 13% strike rate over fences at Sandown. It's a very tough race by all means and the fact that he only carries 10st 13lbs in a handicap shows the true qualities of this race. However, he has a hell of a lot in his favour and looks nailed on to place at least once again if he runs his race. 8/1 looks big and I'll happily have a small each way bet on a horse that I marked up as a 9/2 shot. He'll make a bold bid from the front and give us a mighty run for our money if he gets a bit of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) You've finally had a winner :lol Nice work with Marsh Warbler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Finally. :clap Cheers mate, told you he's a class horse. :tongue2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Well done with Marsh Warbler Monte, that was a superb display. I must admit I didn't play in that one, wish I'd done so. I'moncloudnine travelled well, stick with him on better ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Cheers mate, he was amazing altogether, pity I didn't stake more because I'm an idiot. I'moncloudnine was great I thought, wouldn't have any qualms about the ground as I believe he's a soft ground horse through and through. He put in a fair few slow jumps which cost him a lot of momentum. Done well to place I thought. Wouldn't be keen on him in anything better than the soft side of good to soft but I'm wrong a lot nowadays! Midnight Haze was massively punted into 4/1 from the 14's I got. He didn't run well though and was pulled up after hammering a few fences when weakening. Pity. Nozic ran a cracker to come 4th. Just doesn't have the toe for 2m 4 nowadays and I'll side with him again if he's out for a slog in the mud. Glad to see him finish for once. Fiendish Flame still to come, high hopes for this fellow if he can get it all right. Pricewise have picked him though, and they usually jinx me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Well done with Marsh Warbler Monte :clap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monterosso Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+145pts) Cheers Steve, many thanks. Glad to get a winner for once. :eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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