Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

[ogii55]

One of my favorit all round sports competition is about to start in less then two weeks time - Tour de France 2010. I was following closely this season to put a view on the teams and the chances and was hugely surprised by the fact that Lance Armstrong odds are drifting month after month. However here will try to put some facts why Lance Armstrong will win the Tour this year and not only to win it, but to smack the bookies (Betfred had it 12/1 the best from the bookies, while betfair is trading around 15-16.00). The most dominant cyclist in last three years and winner last year Alberto Contador is the logic favorit. But he will not get such a support as last year. 8 of the 9 cyclist, who backed Contador last year for Astana team now are with Radioshack team (including Armstrong himself). In Astana is Alexander Vinokurov, who never been a backup guy, and this may cause some problems (as it was last year when we have two leaders in Astana - Armstrong i Contador, but both of them were very domminant and didn't have the same strong oposition.). Team Saxo Bank with the second favorit Andy Schlek will be very strong. But two of the main backups will not be in great form. Fabian Cancelara, the best timetriler in the world, was in his best form during spring classicics. Stewart O'Grady broke his collarbone in Tour of California less then two months ago. Radioshack team will be with all the best Armstrong backups, who helped him to win record 7 titles. Lance himself is comming into his best form. He was third in tour de Luxemburg and second in tour the Suiss, which finished during weekend. This is typical for Armstrong, who never showed his best in smaller competitions leading to Tour de France (starts on 3 July). The manager of Armstrong team Johan Bruynell was manager of Astana last year and knows very well the capacity of the favorites. With guys like Andreas Kloden, Levy Leipheimer, Janes Brajkovic (won Dauphine libere, where also participate Contador), veterans Haimar Zubeldia and Jose Luis Ribueira......Lans Armstrong for me is not more then 3 or 4 to 1 in this competition. GL

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour de France - value of the century There's no way Armstrong will out-climb or out time-trial Contador, so IMO you are putting a lot of faith in Radioshack being able to catch Alberto out in a vicious crosswinds. And even if they did, then Armstrong is still IMO inferior to Andy Schleck at least, and still has to compete against the Sanchez's, Frank Schleck, Gesink and whatever Liquigas decide to offer up. Some early small bets to start with: Tony Martin to win King of the Mountains @ 201 Will Hill Martin won this classification last year in the Tour de Suisse and Paris Nice. He actually traded between 4.7-12s early on in the tour last year before abandoning his pursuit of this jersey. There is no sign he will compete for it this year but his previous wins in this category, albeit in smaller races, shows a rider who clearly thinks of the Polka jersey as a valuable prize. Given so many teams have a genuine overall rider (Shack, Saxo, Astana, Liquigas, Rabobank) then this should be a wide open category in which Martin could easily find himself a protagonist. Juan Jose Cobo to win KOTM @ 126 Will Hill With Valverde suspended and the Caisse team looking for a new sponsor they should come into this tour with a different but ambitious set of objectives. Luis Leon Sanchez is a talented rider but he is unlikely to be a true contender for the yellow jersey. In Mauricio Soler they have a former KOTM winner and IMO the team may have been looking again to this classification to get some publicity. At the moment though, Soler is a doubtful proposition (current odds 34). Cobo is a very strong climber and he has shown glimpses of his talent in tour before, when he ran 2nd behind the later suspended Piepoli in a high mountain stage in 2008. For me, the equation is simple. Cobo is a strong climber on a team who is without a true GC contender that needs publicity. This could easily see Cobo consider the KOTM as an initial objective. Even if he doesn't, he'll still look for stage wins, and as we saw with Matty Lloyd in the recent Giro, riders who win an early mountain stage will often chase the polka jersey as a result of the points they've accumulated in said stage win. Bernard Kohl in 2008 is also a similar example of a rider who goes after this classification after some early points 'accidentally' puts him into contention.