Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

[ogii55]

One of my favorit all round sports competition is about to start in less then two weeks time - Tour de France 2010. I was following closely this season to put a view on the teams and the chances and was hugely surprised by the fact that Lance Armstrong odds are drifting month after month. However here will try to put some facts why Lance Armstrong will win the Tour this year and not only to win it, but to smack the bookies (Betfred had it 12/1 the best from the bookies, while betfair is trading around 15-16.00). The most dominant cyclist in last three years and winner last year Alberto Contador is the logic favorit. But he will not get such a support as last year. 8 of the 9 cyclist, who backed Contador last year for Astana team now are with Radioshack team (including Armstrong himself). In Astana is Alexander Vinokurov, who never been a backup guy, and this may cause some problems (as it was last year when we have two leaders in Astana - Armstrong i Contador, but both of them were very domminant and didn't have the same strong oposition.). Team Saxo Bank with the second favorit Andy Schlek will be very strong. But two of the main backups will not be in great form. Fabian Cancelara, the best timetriler in the world, was in his best form during spring classicics. Stewart O'Grady broke his collarbone in Tour of California less then two months ago. Radioshack team will be with all the best Armstrong backups, who helped him to win record 7 titles. Lance himself is comming into his best form. He was third in tour de Luxemburg and second in tour the Suiss, which finished during weekend. This is typical for Armstrong, who never showed his best in smaller competitions leading to Tour de France (starts on 3 July). The manager of Armstrong team Johan Bruynell was manager of Astana last year and knows very well the capacity of the favorites. With guys like Andreas Kloden, Levy Leipheimer, Janes Brajkovic (won Dauphine libere, where also participate Contador), veterans Haimar Zubeldia and Jose Luis Ribueira......Lans Armstrong for me is not more then 3 or 4 to 1 in this competition. GL

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour de France - value of the century There's no way Armstrong will out-climb or out time-trial Contador, so IMO you are putting a lot of faith in Radioshack being able to catch Alberto out in a vicious crosswinds. And even if they did, then Armstrong is still IMO inferior to Andy Schleck at least, and still has to compete against the Sanchez's, Frank Schleck, Gesink and whatever Liquigas decide to offer up. Some early small bets to start with: Tony Martin to win King of the Mountains @ 201 Will Hill Martin won this classification last year in the Tour de Suisse and Paris Nice. He actually traded between 4.7-12s early on in the tour last year before abandoning his pursuit of this jersey. There is no sign he will compete for it this year but his previous wins in this category, albeit in smaller races, shows a rider who clearly thinks of the Polka jersey as a valuable prize. Given so many teams have a genuine overall rider (Shack, Saxo, Astana, Liquigas, Rabobank) then this should be a wide open category in which Martin could easily find himself a protagonist. Juan Jose Cobo to win KOTM @ 126 Will Hill With Valverde suspended and the Caisse team looking for a new sponsor they should come into this tour with a different but ambitious set of objectives. Luis Leon Sanchez is a talented rider but he is unlikely to be a true contender for the yellow jersey. In Mauricio Soler they have a former KOTM winner and IMO the team may have been looking again to this classification to get some publicity. At the moment though, Soler is a doubtful proposition (current odds 34). Cobo is a very strong climber and he has shown glimpses of his talent in tour before, when he ran 2nd behind the later suspended Piepoli in a high mountain stage in 2008. For me, the equation is simple. Cobo is a strong climber on a team who is without a true GC contender that needs publicity. This could easily see Cobo consider the KOTM as an initial objective. Even if he doesn't, he'll still look for stage wins, and as we saw with Matty Lloyd in the recent Giro, riders who win an early mountain stage will often chase the polka jersey as a result of the points they've accumulated in said stage win. Bernard Kohl in 2008 is also a similar example of a rider who goes after this classification after some early points 'accidentally' puts him into contention.

[Labrador]

Re: Tour de France - value of the century Good to read your early thoughts, Crouchy. I enjoyed your excellent posts on the 2009 Tour and look forward to following you again this time. Do you by any chance know the latest situation on Franco Pellizotti and whether he's likely to participate this year? I understand he had a few drug-related problems recently, and there's some doubt about him being allowed to compete. He's not included in either Hills' or Paddy Power's KOTM market

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour de France - value of the century

Good to read your early thoughts, Crouchy. I enjoyed your excellent posts on the 2009 Tour and look forward to following you again this time. Do you by any chance know the latest situation on Franco Pellizotti and whether he's likely to participate this year? I understand he had a few drug-related problems recently, and there's some doubt about him being allowed to compete. He's not included in either Hills' or Paddy Power's KOTM market

Liquigas withdrew him from the Giro after it was revealed his biological passport contained irregular values. He was not banned by the UCI or suspended by his team, but was withdrawn by his team in case they were later forced to take him out of the race, which would not have been good in terms of publicity etc. He still may ride, but given he has not been cleared yet, I doubt he will be chosen for this tour given his team didn't risk it in the Giro. He also hasn't ridden for a few months, so that too might be a factor in any possible selection.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July This is now the Tour de France thread :nana re-named and stickied Nice to see a few of you are looking to France and not just South Africa :ok

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Tony Martin is great value as well ! Some new interesting points. There is a big scandal with Saxo Bank team, where are riding both Schlek brothers. They decided to quit Saxo Bank next year and to join a new Luxemburg team. For sure that fact will cause some problems for them. Andy Schlek crashed in some of the last trainings before the start of the Tour, but it's not so serious. Some more valuable points about Armstrong. For the first time in many years the attention will not be 100% toward him. The press and anti-doping services will not searching around the team of Radioshack as it was before during the days at Discovery Chanel and US Postal. I am pretty sure that after Gesink is very capable young guy, but he will have huge problems in TT stages. And about TT capacity of Armstrong and Contador, i am not sure that the Spaniard is so better then Lance. The American won many ITT stages in Tour de France and also has a bronze medal in 2000 Olympics :)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Quite surprisingly JJ Cobo has not made the Caisse squad for the tour, so I would disregard that pick. As for Armstrong's time trialling, I haven't seen him have a great result since his return. He came in 10th in last year's prologue and did even worse on the long time trial that Contador won. Then in the last time trial of the Tour de Suisse: 1 Tony Martin (Ger) Team HTC - Columbia 0:32:21 2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:17 3 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Transitions 0:00:29 4 Gustav Erik Larsson (Swe) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:48 5 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack 6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team Radioshack 0:00:52 7 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Team Saxo Bank 8 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Team HTC - Columbia 0:00:57 9 Wouter Poels (Ned) Vacansoleil Pro Cycling Team 0:01:02 10 Stijn Devolder (Bel) Quick Step 0:01:07 11 Lance Armstrong (USA) Team Radioshack 0:01:09 12 Nicolas Jonathan Castroviejo (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:01:14 13 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 14 Alessandro Ballan (Ita) BMC Racing Team 0:01:20 15 Jérémy Roy (Fra) Française Des Jeux 0:01:21 16 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Cervelo Test Team 0:01:22 17 George Hincapie (USA) BMC Racing Team 18 Grischa Niermann (Ger) Rabobank 0:01:26 19 Luis Leòn Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:01:32 Coming in behind riders like Monfort and Devolder simply isn't good time trialling, at least not for someone who climbs worse than Contador (which is everyone). Sure he is still peaking, but so too are Cancellara, Kloden, Leipheimer etc. Frank Schleck is definitely a rider who will aim to peak at the tour and Armstrong only beat him by 5 seconds. Maybe Lance will prove me wrong, but I think he will lose over a minute to Contador over the two time trials (there is only about 60km of ITT this tour, which is very low compared to usual, which will favour the more pure climbers like Gesink)

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July You are right that last year Armstrong lost both time trails to Contador. First one was with 22 seconds for 15 km at prologue, in the second one Contador was leading seriously in GC so there wasn't stimul for Lance to give his best. Remember for example Rassmusen during his tour in 2007, when he got suspended. He finished 10-th on Albi TT and Contador was 7-th on 42 km very tough terrain. Rassmusen never was even in Top 20 in the Netherlands TT, but showed great performance, when fighting for the yellow. Armstrong i belive is Top 10 in the world among timetrilers and when he has a yellow target, will show some briliant performance. About the climbing, maybe you will remember how Cadel Evans feels in 2008 tour fighting against the team of Schlek bros and Carlos Sastre in the mountains. I am not sure if Vinocurov himself will be able to handle the top team of Astana climbers as Kloden, Levi, Brajkovic and Popovic

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July There is no way Astana can handle the firepower of Radioshack. The difference for me is that in 08 when Sastre attacked on the Queen stage Cadel was waiting around for someone to do the chasing (he can be such a stubborn idiot). I don't think Contador will make the same mistake. The other, bigger problem as I see it, is that Lance is a very selfish rider. Last year he only begrudgingly helped Contador, and even then his assistance was not great. If Lance continues to show the same kind of selfishness it will neutralize his team's best advantage, which is multiple GC threats. If Lance spends all the team's efforts on himself, then Contador wont need to follow if Kloden or Jani attack, because they will already be so far behind on time. If they are all together, then I can see Radioshack doing some damage, particularly if the Schlecks aren't on top form. The problem then is that Armstrong might not necessarily be the beneficiary of his team's strength. Make no mistake, I do think Contador can be beaten, and IMO, the value is most certainly in opposing him, particularly given that the race will go over the cobblestones in the early stages. That said, I'm not of the belief that Armstrong @ 14 is the best option in opposing Conti. It's not necessarily a bad bet, but I don't think it qualifies as value of the century. Good luck all the same. As for me, I've just had a small nibble on both Kloden and Leipheimer to win the tour, both @ 250 (Betfair). As I said, I do think Lance will be too selfish, but it's not a certainty, and if Bruyneel successfully attacks with all his weapons then theres a realistic chance that these two will come into calculations, particularly if Contador were to be eliminated on the cobbles, thus opening up the race to a Shack v Saxo duel, where the multi-attack strategy would really come into it.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July One more KOTM bet (my favourite antepost market as it's much more open to interpretation). Cadel Evans @ 81 Bet365 In the last two years, Riders who have performed strongly in the Giro have come to the tour not for GC but for stage wins and as a result, the polka jersey. Before being caught, 3rd place 2008 Giro finisher Riccardo Ricco led this classification, and last year's 3rd place Giro finisher was none other than Franco Pellizotti, winner of the KOTM jersey in the 2009 Tour de France. This year Cadel rode the Giro quite hard, and I have doubts he can hit top form for the tour. Furthermore, he has a weak team and a strong list of challengers for the yellow jersey. IMO, his best chance of having a good tour is by focusing on stage wins and the KOTM jersey. Whether or not he does so is up in the air, especially given how stubborn he can be, but given he won the points jersey in the Giro, we can at least be assured that he is not against competing in the secondary classifications.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July King of the mountain (KOM) Mathew Lloyd 101 Sportingbet The winner of Mountain classification in Giro showed great form two months ago. Won also a stage in Italy. His team has one GC contender in the face of Jurgen Van Den Broeck. It means that he will have a chance to make some in front showings in mountain stages without catching the attention of the big favorits. Matthew Llloyd probably will lost a lot of time in the first flat stages so will be well behind in GC to be a danger. The other bookies gives max 26.00. I am limited at Sportingbet and it gives me just few cents to bet, but however it;s nice proposition. Four riders managed to make double at King of the mountain classification in Giro and Tour de France in the same year. The last one was Claudio Chiapucci in 1992. But we must have in mind that it's not every year, when the top climber in the Giro participates in the Tour. For example legendary French climber Richar Verenque participate in just one Giro, while won 7 times KOM title.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Green Jersey winner Robbie Mcewen 41 betfred/bodog/bet365 (55 and 50 at betfair) Three times winner of Green Jersey competition and now is coming back on tour after suffering last season from knee injury. According to last news the Australian is feeling great and managed to keep high training pressure. Katusha team will not have some serious contender in GC or KOM competition so may put more force to sprinters battle. If Robbie is finiding his old form, will be very serious contender.

[conelly]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Hey Everybody I would like to hear peoples view on the following head2head in the Tour de France Frank Schleck 2.00 - Lance Armstrong 1.71 Denis Menchov 2.40 - Lance Armstrong 1.52 Thomas Lokvist 2.15 - Tony Martin 1.62 Maxime Monfort 1.71 - Chris Anker Sorensen 2.00 Andreas Kloden 1.62 - Jurgen Van Den Broeck 2.15 Luis Leon Sanchez 1.54 - Nicholas Roche 2.35 Thor Hushovd 1.62 - Alessandro Petacchi 2.20 Juan Manuel Garate 1.62 - Amael Moinard 2.20

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Top 10 Finish - Christophe Le Mevel @ 7 Le Mevel came 10th last year, albeit after gaining some time in a break. This year he has built his entire season around the tour, something he has not done in the past. He lost some time in the time trials last year and the reduced number of chrono kilometers will also be to his benefit. Although there is a strong cast this year, I still feel that these odds represent strong value for somebody whose chances of coming top 10 are, IMO, between 20-30%

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Hey Everybody I would like to hear peoples view on the following head2head in the Tour de France Frank Schleck 2.00 - Lance Armstrong 1.71 Denis Menchov 2.40 - Lance Armstrong 1.52 Thomas Lokvist 2.15 - Tony Martin 1.62 Maxime Monfort 1.71 - Chris Anker Sorensen 2.00 Andreas Kloden 1.62 - Jurgen Van Den Broeck 2.15 Luis Leon Sanchez 1.54 - Nicholas Roche 2.35 Thor Hushovd 1.62 - Alessandro Petacchi 2.20 Juan Manuel Garate 1.62 - Amael Moinard 2.20

Nothing at all there stands out. Will be better bets around IMO.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Hey Everybody I would like to hear peoples view on the following head2head in the Tour de France Frank Schleck 2.00 - Lance Armstrong 1.71 Denis Menchov 2.40 - Lance Armstrong 1.52 Thomas Lokvist 2.15 - Tony Martin 1.62 Maxime Monfort 1.71 - Chris Anker Sorensen 2.00 Andreas Kloden 1.62 - Jurgen Van Den Broeck 2.15 Luis Leon Sanchez 1.54 - Nicholas Roche 2.35 Thor Hushovd 1.62 - Alessandro Petacchi 2.20 Juan Manuel Garate 1.62 - Amael Moinard 2.20

Not sure if Petacchi will be able to finish the race. Maybe he will hang off the bycicle before Pyrinees. Both Armstrong propositions looks well, but the odds are very low. Lokvist do not make the best season so far, but he is very experienced in Grand Tours and may be well prepared for the Tour. It's 50-50 battle with martin, who showed amazing TT qualities in Tour de Suisse adding to his previous very good climbing capacity. Kloden vs van den Broeck is defenetly for the German, but with so low odds..... Garate and Moinard both will be looking for stage win and will not fight for GC so in a day both of them may loss a lot of time. It's a coin flip, as well the battle between Monfort and Chris Anker Soresen. Go to Pinnacle, they put far better propositions with higher odds and far higher limits. Some of them Green Jersey Ciolek - Petachi both 1,926 KOM Jersey Lloyd - Martinez 3.4 GC Evans - Basso 2.30

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July It is pretty good to watch, those guys are super fit, i know what am like doing 3 or 4 miles.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July A final few antepost bets: Nicholas Roche to win a stage @ 6.50 Sportingbet AU Roche has a slew of top ten finishes last year and was present in numerous breaks. His team doesn't have a jersey contender and will look to individual stages for their success. As one of the best riders (and fastest) Roche should be a key part of plan. I've no doubt Roche will trade under 10 to win a stage on a couple of occasions and that in itself will make this value. Luis Leon Sanchez to win a stage @ 5.50 Sportingbet AU LLS has won a stage in the past 2 tours and I expect him to be challenging on stages again. His team are without a genuine overall contender for the GC and will no doubt look for some stage wins. Sanchez is a gun descender and there are a number of downhill finishes that he could attack on. He is also a decent puncheur and so is capable of winning on some of the smaller mountaintop finishes as well. Thomas Voeckler to win a stage @ 7.00 Sportingbet AU Voeckler is the perennial breakaway artist. His team relies solely on breakaway wins for its success and little Tommy will feature multiple times in breaks. He got his first tour stage win last year and I think these are strong odds for him to add to that tally.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Last 2 Antepost Pierre Rolland KOTM @ 51 Willhill Rolland has won this classification twice in the dauphine, including this year. In an interview the other time he said that he would also like to wear the polka dot jersey in the Tour de France, and with many breakaway mountain points available this year I think he could prove to be a tasty proposition. Top 10 - Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ 7 Sportingbet AU JVDB had a strong debut tour last year and I think he has the potential to improve on that performance. He wont be obligated to help Cadel in any way as they are no longer team-mates, so his status and support should be even greater now. By no means a certainty for top 10 but I place his chances of achieving this to be ~20%, so these odds are definitely value. 2 for the prologue: Rain is forecast for the prologue and it is more probably towards the evening. Cancellara starts second last so could easily get caught out in the rain. Given the short distance if the corners are wet this should be enough to see he doesn't claim the first yellow jersey. As such I'm looking to two people: Edvald Boasson Hagen @ 27 Betfair EBH is a strong time trialist and already has a TT victory over Cancellara this year. The main reason for this bet though is that the Norwegian will start in the first hour. Tony Martin @ 8.8 Betfair Beat Cancellara in the recent Tour de Suisse time trial. Like EBH, he will start in the first hour.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Prologue David Millar 55.00 Betfair 34.00 BAW Sportingbet Top3 One of the best TT specialist in this year's competition and on Grand tours at all. Always showed good results in first stages. Had won twice Stage 1 at Vuelta and Once Stage 1 at Tour de France. Had numerous prologue wins in big competitions as Paris-Nice. Incredible good value if Cancelara do not showed his best. The distance of the Prologue is pretty short, so this will benefit the profile of Millar. KOM Pierrick Fedrigo 67.00 Blue Squere/BAW/888 Very strong French climber. Participated in the event since 2003 without missing it. Won last year for the first time a clear mountain stage, beating on the final last year KOM winner Franko Pelizzoti. Its normal his team to put a goal to him to attack KOM jersey this year. I am sure he will have nice chances, as Fedrigo never showed amazing TT qualities

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July One in-play for the prologue, Thor Hushovd @ 150 (Betfair). Farrar is just 18sec off the top time at the moment and Hushovd is an ever better ITT'er than him. He was actually targeting this but put that plan to bed after getting injured. However, he won his national championship last week and may give this a good go today.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Very interesting first stage today. Crouch_Potato, you were very close with Tony Martin, but Spartacus is crazy and unbeatable, if the rain was still falling during the Swiss ride it would be different. I think Cancelara benefit a little bit by the weather, cos the road was dry during his race. Millar rode on the words conditions, but even in the commong conditions it would be very tough to beat Cancelara. Armstrong showed his qualities and won the first battle over Contador, just a few seconds, put i think the psychological win is far more important. Looking at the other players in the team Radioshack is with 4 entries in Top 15!, while Astana only 2 in Top 20. However this is very short TT and can't be a real measurement. Schleck bros seems to suffer a lot from the TT and the bigger one later in the Tour. It may be decisive for their chance for overal win. Menchov, Sastre, Wiggins, Basso lost around 30+ seconds from Armstrong and Contador. Think that this is a lot of time, taking in mind that it's only for a TT of 9 km! Armstrong odds for overal win dropped to 8.4! They were 14 before the start of the day

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July You're always going to need a bit of luck to get a winner when backing against Cancellara in a time trial. Sadly today it didn't come. Stakes weren't very big so not too damaging but it's disappointing not to get off to a winning start. Armstrong really surprised me with his performance. I haven't seen that sort of power form him since his return so he may figure a lot more than I thought. Still, the Pyrenees is where it will be won and last and five seconds wont go far there. Very hard for me to think I will take a bet for tomorrow. Maybe if something good in a H2H market or top 3 market appears I will act, but obviously flat sprinter's stages are anything but profitable from my experience (mostly because I am always backing or opposing Cav on the wrong day). Still, if there's crosswinds it will be an entertaining stage, if not a betting one.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I will wait for the first sprint, but today Farrar showed impressive skills in TT so seems he is in great shape. Cav do not showed some qualities this season, but among sprinters i think that Farrar deservs to be more favorit. Old guns as Mcwean, Petachi and Freire will push hardly for this stage, cos after it will be very tough for them. If i must select would back Petachi (15 at paddy), who also was very strong in TT among sprinters, which is strange for him. Italian won a stage at Tour de Suisse and seems is hungry for wins. Expect a break out from Katusha (probably Brutt - nice 251 bet365/boyles) and French teams (Voecker for sure ) Alesandro Petacchi 15.00 Paddy Pavel Brut 251.00 bet365.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Still not keen on being active in this stage, so am only having 3 very small bets, all of which are long outsiders: Samuel Dumoulin @ 270 Betfair Cofidis have no sprinter present and will look for exposure via breakaways. Though it should be stressed I don't really believe the break will succeed Dumoulin is a perennial breakaway exponent and he might give us a run here at odds. Jerome Pineau @ 220 Betfair Pineau was very active in the Giro and managed to time a breakaway right and claim an early stage. Again, the break will likely fail, but in cycling things are never for certain, and there are many variables. This is a good price for a man with an active history of winning and participating in breaks. The absence of Boonen from QST should increase the likelihood of riders from the Belgian team looking for opportunistic moments. Fabian Cancellara @ 120 Betfair In 2007, I had a bet on David Millar at 80s. He made the break with 3 others and things were looking good, when a heavy crosswinds hit. Astana started to put the hammer down and the peleton broke violently (Boonen traded at 90s in this stage, went into 2s before crashing in the final corrner :lol). The effect of this was that many of the top sprinters did not contest and those alert enough to stay in the lead group with a bit of a sprint were able to contest the win. Ultimately it was Robbie Hunter who won that day but Cancellara came across 3rd, and was actually quite disappointed that day not to have won. Last year there was also a stage where the peleton split. Though Cavendish still won it, Cancellara was still in the lead group, proving that he is a very attentive rider. Today there is a possibility of crosswinds and if there is the field could split. I'd expect Spartacus to be in the lead group and if this happens this should at the very least trade much lower.

[Labrador]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Prologue David Millar 55.00 Betfair 34.00 BAW Sportingbet Top3 One of the best TT specialist in this year's competition and on Grand tours at all. Always showed good results in first stages. Had won twice Stage 1 at Vuelta and Once Stage 1 at Tour de France. Had numerous prologue wins in big competitions as Paris-Nice. Incredible good value if Cancelara do not showed his best. The distance of the Prologue is pretty short, so this will benefit the profile of Millar. KOM Pierrick Fedrigo 67.00 Blue Squere/BAW/888 Very strong French climber. Participated in the event since 2003 without missing it. Won last year for the first time a clear mountain stage, beating on the final last year KOM winner Franko Pelizzoti. Its normal his team to put a goal to him to attack KOM jersey this year. I am sure he will have nice chances, as Fedrigo never showed amazing TT qualities

Good call on David Millar, ogii:ok. Good points on Fedrigo. Instead of KOM, I have backed Fedrigo to win over 0.5 stages at 7/2 with Bet 365. I remember to my cost him pipping Pellizotti to win a stage last year, and he also won a stage in 2006. It's great to read the excellent posts on this thread.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July In-play bet: Tyler Farrar to win Stage 1 @ 5 - Ladbrokes He's been the best sprinter all season, and seeing as the peleton has passed the coast-winds without problems, there is no doubt that this will end in a mass-sprint. Main challenger is Cavendish, but one must remember that he's without Hincapie this year, and Mark Renshaw won't be close to the form he was in last year, after his illness in December. Also lots of value in McEwen @ 26 - PaddyPower, 888Sport, BlueSq Good luck all :hope

[gurudave]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

I will wait for the first sprint, but today Farrar showed impressive skills in TT so seems he is in great shape. Cav do not showed some qualities this season, but among sprinters i think that Farrar deservs to be more favorit. Old guns as Mcwean, Petachi and Freire will push hardly for this stage, cos after it will be very tough for them. If i must select would back Petachi (15 at paddy), who also was very strong in TT among sprinters, which is strange for him. Italian won a stage at Tour de Suisse and seems is hungry for wins. Expect a break out from Katusha (probably Brutt - nice 251 bet365/boyles) and French teams (Voecker for sure ) Alesandro Petacchi 15.00 Paddy Pavel Brut 251.00 bet365.

:clap Hope you got something on it. I decided on no bet for this stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Alesandro Petacchi 15.00 Paddy

Very nice :clap:clap

[kkull]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Shouldn't all H2H bets be cancelled? Aall riders will be given 1 and same time - I read this from cyclingnews.com It is according to the big crash in the last kilometer. There has never been such a big crash before. Maybe it just had to happen someday